Europe's stainless steel producers will continue to import and use nickel pig iron (NPI) until the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive period in 2026, according to John Eastwood, major nickel mining group Anglo American's head of sales, stainless and specialty steel raw materials.
A region-wide scarcity of stainless steel scrap and rising raw material costs drove European mills to pivot to using the cheaper and more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI this year, with imports equating to 10,000t of nickel metal content in January-July, according to Red Door Research managing director Jim Lennon. A European trading firm told Argus this week that Spanish producer Acerinox, ramping up production after a five-month strike-related outage this year, has also committed to using NPI as input feedstock.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Nickel Institute Seminar during LME Week on 2 October, Eastwood said this trend will not die down in the near term despite recent falls in scrap prices, with only CBAM — the EU's tax measure to limit carbon leakage within the region and support its long-term climate goals — being a likely deterrent. Currently in its trial phase before full planned implementation in 2026, CBAM requires European importers to offset the CO2 emissions linked with the production of the goods purchased overseas by buying emissions certificates.
Scrap suppliers in Europe are waiting as they realise they cannot compete with NPI, with the downside to prices likely to be limited as a result, Eastwood said. The Argus assessment for stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has fallen by nearly 20pc since 22 August and was last at an average €1,175/t.
The European stainless steel industry is facing a severe downturn with real demand set to shrink for a third straight year in 2025. Flat producers in particular are operating at well below capacity amid low downstream service centre demand, and Eastwood foresees no change to fundamentals until the second half of 2025.
"The problem is not profitability, the problem is there is excess capacity," Eastwood said. "We had Acerinox out of the market for months this year, but it made little difference to the market and prices. Despite a shortage of scrap, there was no impact on our ferro-nickel sales, which tells you how weak the market is."
Eastwood believes the second half of 2025 is when demand might recover as the effect of improving macros and easing monetary policy will start to kick in.
CBAM has come under intense criticism from European stainless steel producers given that it does not include scope 3 emissions while imposing taxes on selected upstream raw materials, with many producers simply viewing it as a protectionist measure that is fast-tracking de-industrialisation. Eastwood echoed this sentiment and stressed on reform, but said the industry had now accepted that it was here to stay.
"There are many holes [in CBAM]. It includes ferro-nickel but leaves out refined nickel, for example," he said. "It is not uniform for the whole supply chain. Average CBAM costs are about $1,000/t of nickel. It is not clear who will pay this."
Anglo American's projections peg the class 1 nickel market as the sole provider of market surpluses in the coming years, with the Asian class 2 market, including NPI and ferro-nickel, balanced and even tight, Eastwood said. Nickel prices on the LME are expected to move similarly in 2025 relative to this year.
"The wider surplus story is here to stay," Eastwood said. "The story about nickel rocketing up is over. We do not expect much change."
Eastwood noted freight costs as a significant limiting factor for the stainless steel industry next year, curbing imports of finished stainless steel into Europe.
"Freight prices have been astronomical, and we expect it to remain the same next year," he said. "These costs will weigh heavily on trading, whether imports or otherwise."
