Higher coal may drive mid-sulphur coke demand

Spanish Market: Petroleum coke
15/10/24

The premium for mid-sulphur petroleum coke on an fob US Gulf basis may widen again as higher coal prices push Turkish cement makers to this grade in order to remain within overall sulphur limits.

Mid-sulphur coke could begin to be more actively traded in Turkey as buyers there seek to reduce the amount of coal in their fuel mix, with coke becoming much more price competitive, a cement producer said.

Most Turkish cement plants can now use higher sulphur coke, but in order to do so, they must use a higher proportion of coal to meet emissions limits. And the number of coal trades has fallen sharply in the second half of the year.

Coke's discount to coal on a delivered basis has widened as coke prices have steadily fell and coal prices rose. Cfr Turkey 5.5pc sulphur dry basis coke reached a 38pc discount to coal on a heat-adjusted basis as of Argus' last weekly fuel-grade coke assessment, compared with a 31pc discount a month before and a 10pc discount during the same week last year. Both mid- and high-sulphur coke in Turkey are now at their widest discount to coal since 16 March 2022.

Cement plants were already starting to prefer mid-sulphur over higher-sulphur material because the premium has narrowed to a multi-month low. Since the start of October, mid-sulphur coke's premium to high-sulphur coke has remained at $2.50/t in Turkey, the lowest since 27 March.

The 5.5pc sulphur coke's average premium to 6.5pc sulphur on a cfr Turkey basis declined by 65pc on the year from January-September, to $4.98/t. This is slightly narrower than the premium for 4.5pc as received coke on an fob US Gulf basis, but this has also traded at a historically narrow premium to high-sulphur coke so far this year. The fob Gulf premium averaged $5.47/t year-to-date through September, falling by more than half from the same nine-month period last year. And last week it narrowed to its lowest since late August, after the 4.5pc sulphur assessment fell by $1.50/t on the week while 6.5pc sulphur prices held steady for the first week since 21 August, as spot demand emerged.

The lower premium is a result of weak demand for mid-sulphur coke outside of the Mediterranean as well as higher supply of 4.5pc sulphur Venezuelan coke over the past two years. This coke still attracts demand in Turkey, India and China despite US sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry. But Chinese demand for mid-sulphur fuel coke has sputtered since last year as stocks there have climbed, leading Mediterranean buyers to lower bids, feeling that suppliers have limited options elsewhere.

Some cement plants in Turkey have been lowering bids for 5.5pc sulphur coke even further to below $80/t cfr, basically in line with high-sulphur prices, which were assessed at $77.50/t last week. Two cement plants already achieved this price level for 5.8pc sulphur max coke earlier this month, purchasing a joint cargo at about $77-78/t cfr.

It remains to be seen if the stronger interest in mid-sulphur coke from Turkish buyers reverses the trend of a falling spread between the two grades of coke. At least two firms this week are seeking seaborne mid-sulphur coke cargoes for November-December loading.

By Alexander Makhlay

Mid- to high-sulphur coke premiums $/t

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23/12/24

Viewpoint: Syrian rebuilding may boost Turkish cement

London, 23 December (Argus) — Turkey's cement production and sales may rise in 2025 because of potential reconstruction projects in neighbouring Syria, potentially boosting petroleum coke consumption by those producers. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad government in early December may lead to a surge in Syrian demand for construction materials, including cement. Turkey is likely to be a major cement supplier to Syria given Turkey's close ties with Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), the main militant group behind the armed revolt to topple Assad. Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin visited Damascus on 12 December , becoming the first foreign officials to meet with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, even though Ankara — a Nato member — does not openly support HTS. HTS remains a designated terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council. While it could take several months for Syrian cement demand to increase, the market was quick to react to the possibility, with Turkish cement prices rising by 10pc in the week following the Syrian regime's fall. A possible tripling of volumes Turkey could export up to 3mn t/year of cement to Syria in upcoming years, according to one cement maker, compared with the 1mn t supplied last year and 1.1mn t in the first 11 months of this year, customs data compiled by Global Trade Tracker (GTT) show. Turkey's exports to Syria reached a record high of 2.67mn t in 2009. Turkey's cement production and sales are expected to be about 85mn t this year and may increase by at least 10-15pc in 2025, following the developments in Syria, a second cement producer said. If this happens, cement plant capacity utilisation rates could rise further in 2025 from over 60pc in 2024 and 58pc in 2023, according to data from the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TCMA). Turkey's cement industry has a total production capacity of over 148mn t/year, TCMA data show. Egypt and Algeria are also among possible cement suppliers to Syria given their location as well as production and port capacity. The relatively low price of cement means that transportation costs factor heavily into the profitability of the building material. But inland shipments by trucks will be more cost-effective than seaborne shipments from Africa, giving Turkish cement companies in border areas a significant advantage. "Transportation via trucks is likely to dominate due to its cost efficiency and flexibility for smaller, on-demand shipments," a third cement maker said. "However, seaborne deliveries might play a role in reaching coastal areas like Latakia or Tartus, especially for bulk shipments and regions further from the Turkish border." No quick rebound expected Although some Turkish producers are preparing production and logistics to meet this new demand, it is not expected to materialise immediately because of the unstable political environment in Syria. A trader estimated a minimum of six months before Turkish cement exports to Syria significantly increase. And some Turkish cement plants are less optimistic about the prospects for increased demand, expecting minor production and sales changes because of Syria. This year has been challenging so far for Turkish plants as they faced high inflation, a weaker lira against the US dollar and a ban on exports to Israel , as well as tough competition in major external markets. Certain cement operations — particularly inland plants located far from ports with limited export sales — were likely to reduce output or even halt production lines in the second half of this year. Furthermore, a destructive earthquake in early 2023 hit the area closest to the country's border with Syria. Plants there are operating at full capacity to cover domestic demand to rebuild from the earthquake and are unlikely to have extra production to sell to Syria for at least 2-3 years, another cement maker said. But if Turkey benefits from a boost in Syrian cement demand, Turkey's full-year 2025 coke imports may increase to a historical record of 4.7mn-5mn t, especially since prices are expected to remain low compared with coal, a market participant said. Cement producers received 3.75mn t of coke during the first 10 months of 2024, with full-year imports likely exceeding 4.5mn t, the highest since 4.64mn t in 2018, GTT data show. By Alexander Makhlay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Congress passes waterways bill

19/12/24

US Congress passes waterways bill

Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Senate has passed a bipartisan waterways infrastructure bill, providing a framework for further investment in the country's waterways system. The waterways bill, also known as the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), was approved by the Senate in a 97-1 vote on 18 December after clearing the US House of Representatives on 10 December. The WRDA's next stop is the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the bill. The WRDA has been passed every two years, authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to undertake waterways infrastructure and navigation projects. Funding for individual projects must still be approved by Congress. Several agriculture-based groups voiced their support for the bill, saying it will improve transit for agricultural products on US waterways. The bill also shifts the funding of waterways projects to 75pc from the federal government and 25pc from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund instead of the previous 65-35pc split. "Increasing the general fund portion of the cost-share structure will promote much needed investment for inland navigation projects, as well as provide confidence to the industry that much needed maintenance and modernization of our inland waterway system will happen," Fertilizer Institute president Corey Rosenbusch said. The bill includes a provision to assist with the damaged Wilson Lock along the Tennessee River in Alabama. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alabama lock expected to reopen late April

18/12/24

Alabama lock expected to reopen late April

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — The main chamber of the Wilson Lock in Alabama along the Tennessee River is tentatively scheduled to reopen in four months, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Corps expects to finish phase two of dewatering repairs on the lock on 20 April, after which navigation can resume through the main chamber of the lock. The timeline for reopening may shift depending on final assessments, the Corps said. Delays at the lock average around 12 days through the auxiliary chamber, according to the Lock Status Report by the Corps. Delays at the lock should wane during year-end holidays but pick up as spring approaches, barge carriers said. The main chamber of the Wilson Lock will have been closed for nearly seven months by the April reopening after closing on 25 September . By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

17/12/24

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

Houston, 17 December (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has determined that the main chamber of the Wilson Lock on the Tennessee River near Florence, Alabama, will remain closed until spring 2025 as repairs continue. The Wilson Lock, the first lock on the Tennessee River, closed on 25 September after cracks in the lock gates on both the land and river sides were discovered. The main lock was closed to prevent further damage in the main chamber, although the auxiliary chamber was kept open for navigation. The Corps had been eyeing an earlier opening date for the main chamber since the start of November. Although months of repairs have taken place, the Corps resolved to keep the main chamber closed to preserve the lock and maintain personnel safety. The Corps, in partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is still assessing the root cause of the cracking. A second de-watering of the gate is scheduled for the first three months of 2025 to repairs. No official date has been set for the lock reopening, although some barge carriers have heard of a late April opening date. A regular 15 barge tow has endured 5-6 days of delay through the lock on average, according to carriers. The Corps' Lock Status Report on the Wilson Lock reported a nearly two-week delay for tows navigating through the lock. This has been costly for shippers by forcing them to pay delay fees. Wilson Lock is the second lock in Alabama to undergo a lengthy closure this year. Most lock and dams along the US river system are over 70 years old, likely resulting in more closures in the coming year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

12/12/24

US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

Washington, 12 December (Argus) — US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said. Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said. "Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said. The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said. US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way. US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989. Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities. Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023. If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase. Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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