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World on track for ‘catastrophic’ temperature rise: UN

  • Spanish Market: Emissions
  • 24/10/24

The world is set for a "catastrophic temperature rise" of up to 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels, unless there is a "G20-led massive global mobilisation to cut all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions", the UN Environment Programme (Unep) said today in its Emissions Gap 2024 report.

It is still "technically possible" for the world to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal set out in the Paris climate agreement, but only with significant effort, the report found. If current commitments for 2030 are met, temperature rise would be limited to 2.6°C-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels. The Paris agreement seeks to limit warming to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C.

The 2.6°C scenario is based on the "full implementation" of countries' current national climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). But "continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming", Unep said.

Countries are due to submit updated NDCs, which would cover a timeframe up to 2035, by February next year. And they "must collectively commit to cut 42pc off annual GHG emissions by 2030 and 57pc by 2035… and back this up with rapid action" in the next round, or the 1.5°C goal "will be gone within a few years", Unep said. The emissions cuts needed are relative to 2019 levels, but GHG emissions reached a record high of 57.1bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023.

To get on track to keep global warming below 2°C, GHG emissions must fall by 28pc by 2030 and 37pc by 2035, both from a 2019 baseline, the report found.

The global average temperature for the 12 months from October 2023 to September stood at around 1.62°C above the pre-industrial average, according to EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus. It is "almost certain that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record", Copernicus added.

Invest and implement

To ensure that warming is limited to below 2°C by 2030, annual emissions should be 14bn t/CO2e lower than the rate implied by current unconditional NDCs. This refers to elements of the plan that a country pledges to carry out with no external support, whether technical or financial. To hit the target of limiting warming to 1.5°C, annual emissions should be 22bn t/CO2e lower than current unconditional NDCs suggest over the same timeframe.

There is "technical potential" for GHG emissions cuts of up to 31bn t/CO2e and 41bn t/CO2e in 2030 and 2035, respectively, the report found. This would "bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years", and cost less than $200/t of CO2e, it added.

Increased deployment of solar and wind power could provide 27pc of the total GHG reduction potential in 2030 and 38pc in 2035, Unep said. And "action on forests" — which are key carbon sinks — could deliver around a fifth of the potential in both timeframes, it added. Electrification and efficiency measures in the transport, buildings and industry sectors would also cut GHG emissions.

But a "minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment" is needed for the world to reach net zero emissions, the report found. The estimated incremental investment is between $900bn and $2.1 trillion annually over 2021-50. This would "bring returns in avoided costs from climate change, air pollution, damage to nature and human health impacts", Unep said.

Members of the G20 group of countries, which are responsible for the majority of global emissions, are off track to meet their current goals and must "take the lead by dramatically increasing action and ambition" in new NDCs, Unep said. G20 members, without the recent addition of the African Union as a permanent member, accounted for 77pc of emissions in 2023.

The outlook has worsened since last year's Emissions Gap report, which flagged a temperature rise of 2.5°C-2.9°C.


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11/12/24

Cop 29 grids, storage pledge signatories released

Cop 29 grids, storage pledge signatories released

London, 11 December (Argus) — The final list of signatories for pledges on expanding energy storage and grid capacity taken at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, was released today, almost four weeks after the commitment was first finalised, with 58 countries out of almost 200 Cop parties taking part. Signatories commit to a collective goal of increasing electricity storage capacity to 1500GW by 2030, a sixfold increase from 2022. Another pledge is to add or refurbish 25mn km of grid infrastructure by 2030, and recognise the need for an additional 65mn km by 2040. Lack of firm, clean power generators to back up intermittent renewables is a major barrier to increasing renewable penetration, while distributed resources require large investments in power grids to transport electricity to consumers. The list of 58 signatory countries includes the so-called troika of Cop host countries the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil. The US and all other G7 member states are present, with the exception of France. Also absent among major economies are China and Russia, while Saudi Arabia spoke in support of the pledges during Cop but does not appear on the list of signatories. In comparison, almost 120 countries had signed a pledge to triple global renewable capacity double global energy efficiency by 2030 during the Cop 28 summit in Dubai last year. The grids and storage pledges were one of the centrepiece announcements made by the Azeri host, following on from the calls made in Dubai on renewable capacity and energy efficiency, but also on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. But divergences on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — during the summit this year, meant that the completed pledge, as well as any other specific mentions of fuels and energy transition technologies, were not included in final outcome texts. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing


10/12/24
10/12/24

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing

London, 10 December (Argus) — Norway will from January no longer provide public finance for new unabated international fossil fuel projects, in line with a commitment it made in December last year. Norway's export credit agency, Eksfin, provides most of the country's financing for overseas fossil fuel projects. Eksfin provided between 8.78bn Norwegian kroner and 10.98bn NKr ($786mn- 983mn) over July 2021-June 2023 for fossil fuel projects, civil society organisation Oil Change International found. Norway signed the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in 2023. The CETP aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". The CETP, which now has 41 signatories, was launched at Cop 26 in 2021, with an initial 39 signatories including most G7 nations and several development banks. Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Abatement, under the CETP, refers to "a high level of emissions reductions" through operational carbon capture technology or "other effective technologies". It does not count offsets or credits. Australia, which also signed the CETP at Cop 28, said last week that it would no longer finance overseas fossil fuel projects. "Norway is also working to introduce common regulations for financing fossil energy within the international main agreement for state export financing in the OECD", the Norwegian government said today. Norway's policy "helps increase momentum" for an OECD deal that could end $41bn/yr in oil and gas export financing, Oil Change said. Countries are involved in "final negotiations" on the deal today, Oil Change added. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Braya may idle Canada RD plant by year-end


09/12/24
09/12/24

Braya may idle Canada RD plant by year-end

New York, 9 December (Argus) — The largest renewable diesel (RD) producer in Canada is weighing whether to idle its 18,000 b/d biorefinery before the end of the year, citing poor margins and uncertainty about US biofuels policy. Braya Renewable Fuels — which began commercial operations in February at a former petroleum refinery in Come-by-Chance, Newfoundland and Labrador — said any potential shutdown would be temporary to see if market conditions improve. The company had previously planned to increase capacity to 35,000 b/d and to also produce sustainable aviation fuel. "Braya plans to retain its permanent workforce if a temporary economic shutdown is required" and "all equipment would be maintained in good condition and in a ready to start mode", refinery manager Paul Burton said. Other Canadian biorefineries have criticized what they see as an unlevel playing field between US and Canadian producers, since ample supply of US-produced renewable diesel has arrived in Canada this year and helped crash prices of federal and British Columbia clean fuel credits. Economics for Canadian biofuel producers could worsen in January when a US tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel expires and is replaced by an incentive that can exclusively be claimed by US producers, likely deterring foreign fuel imports. Braya has seen "lower-than-normal margins" recently and "short-term market disruptions" from the looming expiration of that blenders credit, Burton said. A proposal to extend the blenders credit for another year faces long odds in Congress' lame duck session, energy lobbyists have said . Braya has exported more than 2.1mn bl of renewable diesel into the US this year, largely into California, bills of lading indicate. An additional vessel with an estimated 345,000 bl of renewable diesel was scheduled to reach Long Beach, California, last weekend according to data from trade and analytics platforms Kpler, reflecting foreign producers' incentive to rush biofuel into the US before the end of the year. Braya has also criticized policy shifts in California, where regulators recently updated the state low-carbon fuel standard to eventually limit credit generating opportunities for fuels made from soybean and canola oil. In August comments to California regulators, Braya said that it had "entered into tens of millions of dollars of soybean oil feedstock contracts for 2025" and that soybean oil at the time represented "well in excess" of 20pc of its feedstock mix. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil biomethane sales could cut diesel imports


09/12/24
09/12/24

Brazil biomethane sales could cut diesel imports

Sao Paulo, 9 December (Argus) — Expanding biomethane consumption in Brazil could squeeze inflows of foreign diesel, a slow-moving shift that could take up to a decade to be significant. Brazil's state-owned energy research firm EPE predicts domestic biomethane production can reach up to 3.3bn m³ in 2034, around 39pc of expected agricultural-linked demand for unblended diesel in that year. Brazil imports about 1mn m³/month (209,660 b/d) of diesel to bridge a domestic supply gap. Market participants predict biomethane substitution of some diesel is inevitable because diesel production is twice as costly as that of biomethane, and savings are passed to consumers, according to industry group Brazilian center for infrastructure. Imported diesel prices also depend on reference prices in the international market and exchange rate fluctuations, risks that could make it less attractive — depending on the pricing of cargoes in US dollars. And in the biomethane market, diesel is seen as a strong candidate for substitution because of the effect of the cost of imports on the final price of fossil fuel. Biomethane could displace diesel demand linked to agricultural machinery and trucks, according to EPE, particularly with farming operations making biomethane using waste from their own activities as feedstock. Production centers near farming operations could allow for the establishment of retail stations far from existing pipelines. Prices and receipts Pricing of biomethane in southeastern Sao Paulo state is pegged between natural gas and diesel, taking the energy efficiency of each fuel into account, according to an August study by industry federation Sao Paulo Fiesp. Average natural gas and diesel prices are R3/m³ and R6/m³, respectively, with R3/m³ seen by the sector as the minimum value economically viable biomethane production. In addition to potentially lowering consumer costs, using biomethane as a diesel substitute could increase revenue for producers certified to generate Cbio decarbonization credits under Brazil's national biofuel policy Renovabio. Cbio sales can represent 15pc of the value of the biomethane molecule, according to EPE. By Rebecca Gompertz and Gabrielle Moreira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes


06/12/24
06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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