Brazil's LPG market seeks alternatives: Correction

Spanish Market: Biomass, LPG, Natural gas
29/10/24

Corrects national LPG demand in fifth paragraph.

Brazil's LPG distribution business will change significantly and look toward alternatives such as compressed natural gas (CNG) and biomethane in the near future thanks to a growing number of industry mergers and an expected surge in demand from new federal laws.

In March, Copa Energia, Brazil's largest LPG distributor with 25pc the market share, acquired small-scale CNG distributor Companhia de Transporte de Gas (CTG) as part of its strategy to expand distribution of natural gas and biomethane. Copa is looking to acquire at least three other companies, including biomethane producers, to increase margins as biomolecule prices are still higher.

Ultragaz — which has 17pc of Brazil's LPG market share — acquired Neogas, another CNG distributor, in 2022 and progressed on to biomethane distribution. Essencis Biometano, a southeastern Sao Paulo state partnership between renewable energy companies MDC and Solvi Essencis Ambiental, will supply 68,000m³/d of biomethane to Ultragaz, and Rio de Janeiro GNR Dois Arcos' biomethane plant will supply 10,000 m³/d to Ultragaz.

"This is a rush to capitalize on an opportunity to offer a mix of energy products to the market, hence not only securing one's clients portfolio but also moving ahead of the market and perhaps growing the clientele," one LPG market executive said. The trend of looking into other markets is especially strong in Sao Paulo as well as in southern and central-western states.

The federal government's Gas for All social program — expected to deliver one 13kg cylinder/month to 20mn families by the end of 2025 — will also change the LPG market's dynamics by driving demand while including new consumers into the LPG market. Some participants say it will help decrease usage of firewood for cooking, which is still prominent in the countryside and unlikely to be replaced entirely. Delivered cylinders could replace up to 40pc of wood consumption, a consultant told Argus, thus increasing national demand for LPG by 216,000-312,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr, up from about 7.6mn t/yr currently used nationwide.

The program is most likely to increase LPG use in rural areas, helping major distributors in those areas increase their market shares even further.

By Betina Moura

Brazilian LPG market share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

30/10/24

UK government consults on oil and gas scope 3 emissions

London, 30 October (Argus) — The UK government has opened a consultation seeking views on assessing the effects of scope 3 — or end-use — emissions from proposed offshore oil and gas projects. "Scope 3 emissions from downstream activities need to be assessed… in relation to offshore oil and gas production activities", the government said today. It proposed that a baseline scenario is defined for assessing scope 3 emissions, to set out how the environment "is likely to evolve without the development of a proposed project". The government also proposed that information on "relevant scope 3 categories" is included when a developers applies for a permit. This would include the effects of emissions from the combustion of oil or gas, as well as "other downstream activities", such as refining or transport of fuels. The UK's current process means that developers applying for consent must provide information on scope 1 and 2 — operational — emissions in an environmental statement. But scope 3 emissions are not included, despite making up around 80-95pc of emissions for a typical oil and gas company. The consultation was spurred by a ruling made in June by the UK's Supreme Court. The judgment ruled that consent for an oil development in southern England was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions were not considered. The government — which was elected in early July, shortly after the ruling — has halted the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities, including any that were already being assessed. These would be deferred until the new environmental guidance was in place, expected in spring 2025. The consultation will close on 8 January 2025. Separately, the government will consult by the end of this year on the implementation of its commitment to issue no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields, it said today. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US economy grows by 2.8pc in 3Q, led by consumers

30/10/24

US economy grows by 2.8pc in 3Q, led by consumers

Houston, 30 October (Argus) — The US economy grew by an annualized 2.8pc in the third quarter, led by consumer and government spending and exports. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed from 3pc in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported today. Personal consumption grew at a 3.7pc pace, up from 2.8pc in the second quarter and 3.5pc a year earlier. Today's GDP estimate is the first of three for the quarter, and comes in slightly below analyst estimates in a Trading Economics survey of 3pc growth. The latest figure marks a 10th quarter of GDP growth since a 1pc contraction in the first quarter of 2022. It comes ahead of a closely fought presidential election on 5 November in which the health of the economy is a major issue. Exports grew by 8.9pc in the latest quarter compared with 1pc in the second quarter. Imports, which subtract from growth, grew by 11.2pc. Government spending, including investment for defense, rose by 5pc following 3.1pc growth in the second quarter. Private domestic investment slowed to 0.3pc growth from 8.3pc growth. Residential investment fell by 5.1pc, as the housing market remains in a downturn, after declining by 2.8pc in the second quarte r. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LPG bunker demand lags despite competitive pricing

29/10/24

LPG bunker demand lags despite competitive pricing

New York, 29 October (Argus) — LPG is seen by shipowners as one of the least expensive fuels for meeting new low-carbon emission rules, but spotty safety rules, a lack of bunkering infrastructure or four-stroke engines able to use it is holding back demand. LPG has been price-competitive with LNG and at a significant discount to B30 biodiesel, bio-methanol and blue ammonia and green ammonia this year, according to Argus . ( see chart ). Taking into account the cost of CO2 traded on the EU emissions trading system (ETS), northwest Europe LPG was pegged at $577/t from 1-28 October compared with LNG at $614/t average ( see chart ). The EU's ETS for marine shipping started this year and requires ship operators pay for 40pc of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated on voyages in the EU. Next year, ship operators will have to pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions. LPG is one of the fuels that can help ship operators comply with the FuelEU for the next ten years. Starting on 1 January 2025, the EU's FuelEU regulation will require a 2pc cut in the lifecycle greenhouse intensity for bunker fuels burned in EU territorial waters compared with 2020 base year levels. The reduction jumps to 6pc from 2030 and gradually reaches 80pc by 2050. LPG's lifecycle GHG emissions footprint varies depending on its production pathway. It is pegged at about 81.24 grams of CO2-equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ), according to technical support documentation from the California Air Resources Board. At this carbon intensity level, LPG is compliant with FuelEU's GHG limit set at 85.69 gCO2e/MJ through year 2034, similar to LNG. There are 151 operational ships with LPG-burning engines, with another 109 vessels on order by 2028, according to vessel classification society DNV. LPG bunker demand more than doubled to 242,292t in 2023 compared with 101,447t in 2022, according to the latest International Maritime Organization (IMO) data collected from vessels of 5,000 gross tonnes and over. But LPG bunker demand was dwarfed by comparison with LNG bunker demand, which was at 12.9mn t in 2023, up from 11mn t in 2022, according to the IMO. There were over 700 LNG burning vessels operational this year, with the number growing to 1,162 by 2028, according to DNV data. LPG accounted for 0.1pc and LNG for 6.1pc of global marine fuel demand from vessels with 5,000 gross tonnes and over in 2023. LNG as a marine fuel has been around longer than LPG. The World Liquid Gas Association, a trade association, began exploring the use of LPG as a marine fuel in 2012. The first LPG-fueled very large gas carrier BW Gemini was retrofitted to burn LPG in 2020. By comparison, LNG for bunkering by LNG carriers have been around since the 1960s. The first LNG-powered container ship was delivered in 2015. The bulk of the global LPG bunker demand came from LPG carriers. LPG carriers outfitted with LPG-burning engines can burn their own cargo, taking advantage of the ships' existing infrastructure and safety systems and minimizing their operating costs. But LPG demand from other major types of bunker-consuming vessels, such as container ships, dry bulk carriers and oil tankers, is lagging. One reason is only two-stroke LPG-burning marine engines are commercially available, says vessel classification society Lloyd's Register . Typically, large vessels use two-stroke engines for propulsion and four-stroke engines as auxiliaries, meaning auxiliary engines on vessels would need to be decarbonised through an additional fuel, says Lloyd's Register. LPG has a well-developed global network of import and export terminals. But LPG for bunkering port infrastructure, such as dedicated bunkering storage tanks and LPG bunkering barges, is mostly lacking. Unlike LNG for bunkering, LPG for bunkering regulatory guidelines are currently patchy. If leaked onto water, LPG rapidly vaporises and then sinks to the surface of the water given it is heavier than ambient air. If it ignites, it can create a "pool fire" that can spread and cannot be extinguished, continuing to burn until all the LPG is consumed, Lloyd's Register says. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe selected alternative marine fuels $/t VLSFOe NW Europe, 1-28 Oct avg $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China’s Sinopec cuts crude runs, sales in 3Q 2024

29/10/24

China’s Sinopec cuts crude runs, sales in 3Q 2024

San Francisco, 28 October (Argus) — Chinese state-controlled Sinopec cut crude runs and product sales in the third quarter as downstream margins weakened, leading to lower profits for the quarter. Sinopec processed 5.08mn b/d (190.69mn t) of crude in the first nine months of this year. The firm set a full-year target of 260mn t (5.2mn b/d) earlier in March. It sold 3.94mn b/d (138.06mn t) of gasoline, diesel and jet in the first nine months of this year domestically and has set a 2024 target of 191mn t. This suggests it will need to further ramp up throughput and sales in the fourth quarter to meet full-year targets. Sinopec is expected to pare back refinery runs this month from last month as margins weaken. But the company's gas output grew faster than expected. Output rose by 5.6pc on the year to 3.83bn ft³/d. It set a 2024 target of 3.78bn ft³/d earlier this year, which would be a 3pc growth from a year earlier. The company has this year "adjusted utilisation rate and product mix," it said, to counter "severe challenges" from rapidly decreasing oil prices and narrowing margins for certain products during the first nine months of this year. But this still failed to stem losses in its downstream segments in the July-September quarter, including refining and chemicals. Chinese gasoline crack spreads have collapsed to -$1.22/bl on 25 October, from their summer peak of $18.68/bl on 5 August, because of weak demand exacerbated by rapid displacement in the transport sector by electric vehicles, and this is forcing refiners to cut runs and boost exports. The company's net profit fell by 55pc on the year to 8.03bn yuan ($1.12bn) in July-September, a slightly bigger drop than some analysts estimated. Refining earnings before interest and taxes (ebit) of -$0.29/bl in the quarter is the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2022, when it fell to -$2.61/bl. The fall in July-September ebit may be partly because of crude inventory loss, although the company did not specify. The company stepped up its "oil to chemicals" and "oil to specialties" project expansions. Its combined capital expenditure (capex) of Yn28bn for its refining and chemicals segments in January-September went to expanding the refining capacity at its 540,000 b/d Zhenhai refinery in eastern Zhejiang and adding of ethylene capacity at refineries including its 470,000 b/d Maoming refinery in southern Guangdong. Sinopec 3Q 2024 results 3Q24 3Q23 ±% Profit Yn bn Profit 8.0 17.9 -55.2 Upstream 16.1 16.2 -1.0 Refining -1.0 7.3 -113.3 Marketing 5.2 9.6 -45.4 Chemicals -1.6 -3.3 -51.5 Natural gas and pipeline NA NA NA Sales mn b/d Domestic product sales 4.1 4.3 -4.4 Total product sales 5.3 5.4 -2.0 Output Crude output mn b/d 0.8 0.8 -0.2 Natural gas output bcf/d 3.8 3.6 4.7 Refinery runs mn b/d 5.1 5.3 -4.8 Gasoline output mn b/d 1.5 1.6 -0.5 Diesel output mn b/d 1.1 1.3 -14.2 Jet output mn b/d 0.7 0.7 2.8 Source: Sinopec, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Consensus grows for green gas policy in Germany

28/10/24

Consensus grows for green gas policy in Germany

London, 28 October (Argus) — Germany's two main political parties are beginning to back a national green gas sales quota, increasing the likelihood of its development after the 2025 general election. The German government is yet to put forward a green gas quota proposal, unlike several European neighbours such as Denmark , the Netherlands and Austria . Economy and climate ministry BMWK — led by the Greens — has opted for more active industrial policy to ensure the ramp-up of hydrogen production, rather than a broader green gas policy that would let market prices have more decisive influence over whether hydrogen or alternative green gases prevail. But politicians from the centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU are increasingly referring to a green gas quota as an attractive policy option. The SPD is in government but not in charge of BMWK, while the centre-right CDU is leading the polls for the general election. SPD politicians Bengt Bergt and Andreas Rimkus last year put forward the most concrete proposal yet for such a policy, and it has since found some resonance among politicians and industry. Bergt, the SPD's energy spokesperson, told Argus that he had heard "from a well-placed and high-up source in BMWK that there was ongoing work on a quota solution". BMWK declined to comment on this. CDU politicians too have repeatedly voiced interest for some form of green gas quota. A green gas quota is one option for creating a "lead market" to ensure the most cost efficient delivery of the energy transition, the CDU's deputy head Jens Spahn said in an energy policy paper seen by Argus . The green gas quota is "clearly in the CDU's programme" as a solution, the SPD's Bergt told Argus . With the CDU, SPD and the green-led ministry working towards the plans, Berg said he is looking "quite positively into the future even if it does not come to fruition within this legislative period". The proposal itself Bergt proposes to mandate any supplier of gas to end consumers to evidence a certain proportion of carbon-free or low-carbon gas in its portfolio. This is different to the green gas blending model proposed in other countries. The required proportion of green gas would rise slowly at first to allow for the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy, and takes into account expectations of falling demand later in the next decade, Bergt told delegates at the Handelsblatt Jahrestagung Gas in Berlin earlier this month ( see graph ). The policy foresees that only renewable gases can be used in German gas grids from 2045. Any low-carbon gases could also be used to fulfil this quota, as long as the CO2 savings are equivalent to what they would be if the quota were fulfilled completely with climate-neutral gases. Gases that have lower CO2 emissions per kWh than methane derived from fossil fuels could be used to fulfil the quota for a certain period, including blue hydrogen. But when the CO2-savings targets are high enough, only carbon-neutral renewable gases such as hydrogen or biomethane could be used to meet the quota. In case of non-compliance, utilities would be penalised according to the amount of surplus CO2 emitted compared with the legal pathway, at a minimum cost of €1,200/t CO2. This policy approach would allow Germany to meet its climate goals, ensure security of supply and low energy prices, all while avoiding carbon lock-in effects, at no extra cost to the German state, Bergt said. Gas industry welcomes planning security Several gas industry members agreed with the basic points of the proposal, welcoming the long-term security it could provide for planning horizons. The proposal would answer the hydrogen industry's calls for a policy that supports demand in Germany, panellists at the conference said. But the policy would at the same time allow for price-driven competition between hydrogen and biogas, ensuring the lowest societal cost for decarbonisation, panellists said. Panellists warned against overcomplicating the policy, in light of the general bureaucratic burden. Swiss trading firm MET chief strategy and business development officer Joerg Selbach-Roentgen told Argus in February that the firm was in favour of a green gas blending obligation as it provided a more reliable regulatory framework. A green gas quota is a "valuable instrument to reach the market ramp-up for new gases of all kinds", gas and hydrogen association Zukunft Gas executive director Timm Kehler said at a parliamentary committee hearing late last month. Zukunft Gas praised Bergt's proposal in a position paper in March but asked for further freedoms in compliance, whether through trading of quotas or taking into account uncertain weather-dependent aspects of demand each year. By Till Stehr Percentage of green gas in suppliers' portfolio by year % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more