Donald Trump's US presidential election victory will likely affect finance negotiations during the UN Cop 29 climate summit starting next week, but the US can still play a role while other developed countries step up to the plate, according to observers.
Key negotiations at Cop on a new finance goal for developing nations, the so-called NCQG, could be "severely undermined" by Trump's victory, as the prospect of Washington withdrawing from the Paris Agreement may discourage other countries from engaging with US officials, non-profit IISD's policy adviser Natalie Jones told Argus.
Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement during his last term in office, calling it "horrendously unfair", and he has signalled he will do so again.
"This could potentially weaken ambitions" at Cop 29, but it is unlikely to derail negotiations, Jones said.
Observers agree that the US can still play a role in talks on the new finance goal, a key topic at this year's summit. Parties to the Paris deal will seek to agree on a new finance goal for developing nations, following on from the current $100bn/yr target, which is broadly recognised as inadequate.
"The Biden administration still has a critical window to support vulnerable nations' calls to mobilise climate finance and deliver a strong climate target," civil society organisation Oil Change International's US campaign manager Collin Rees told Argus.
The Biden administration's delegation, which will still take part in Cop 29, will not change position at this stage, according to Jones. And the US could continue to show some leadership, she said, adding that Washington likely intends to release its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) early. Countries' new climate plans must be submitted to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by February 2025, but the US could release its NDC at Cop 29 before Trump takes power early next year, she said.
"President Biden must do everything he can in the final weeks of his term to protect our climate and communities," including on fossil fuels, Rees said.
The prospect of Trump pulling the US out of the Paris accord could cause initial anxiety at Cop 29, Climate Action Network executive director Tasneem Essop said. But "the world's majority recognises that climate action does not hinge on who is in power in the US".
"As we saw before and will see again, other countries will step up if the US reneges on their responsibilities and stands back," Essop said.
Trump's victory might also present the EU with an opportunity to strengthen its leadership among other developed countries, according to Jones. "It is really on the EU and other countries to step up now," she said.
This is a view echoed by German Green lawmaker Michael Bloss, a member of the European Parliament's delegation at Cop 29. "Europe needs to become the adult in the room," Bloss told Argus. The EU cannot rely on the US anymore and must become a global climate leader to ensure success at Cop 29, he said.
Meanwhile, Oil Change's Rees stressed that the NCQG is a collective goal. "Other major economies must now step forward to fill the gaps, much as they would have needed to in any scenario given how the US has long refused to pay its fair share," he said.
