Trump victory ushers in ag trade uncertainty

Spanish Market: Agriculture
06/11/24

Donald Trump's election victory brings with it a great deal of agriculture trade uncertainty, as the president-elect has promised to expand on aggressive tariffs implemented during his first term.

On the campaign trail Trump proposed tariffs of up to 20pc on all foreign goods and 60pc tariffs on all imports from China. Reigniting trade tensions with China is a primary concern for US agriculture markets, particularly for US soybean exports as China is the largest purchaser of US soybeans.

Market sentiment is not yet clear on the immediate impact of the election results. Some participants believe Trump's victory may increase the rate of US corn and soybean purchases ahead of Trump taking office in January, while others think buyers may take a step back and wait for prices to settle after the election. Some US buyers are also avoiding long term contracts to import soybean products due to the risk of future tariffs.

Argus assessed fob US Gulf prices for corn and soy rose slightly on 6 November. Fob US Gulf corn rose by $2.27/t for both December and January, and by $1.97/t for February, to $211.52/t, $205.22/t, and $208.66/t respectively. Soybeans gained even less, with December up $0.73/t, January up $0.74/t, and February flat, totaling $411.62/t, $411.44/t, and $411.44/t respectively.

The minimal gains in fob US Gulf prices indicate a mixture of indifferent and uncertain sentiments as to the expected policy changes under a new US administration.

China's current marketing year purchase commitments for US soybeans total 11.13mn t, down about 7pc from the previous year's 12.02mn t. Chinese purchases of 2024-25 crop soybeans from the US were behind pace earlier in the year, partially due to concerns about the election and US trade policy. China made its first purchase of 2024-25 crop soybeans in July, but purchased US new crop soybeans as early as January during the 2023-24 marketing year.

China's purchases of US corn have also been slower than the previous year, at currently at 20,000t, down by nearly 98pc from the year prior level of 910,000t.

LatAm opportunity

Latin American countries may benefit from Trump's election, as the potential for hampered US exports to China would open leave an opening for Latin American imports. In the previous trade war, China placed retaliatory tariffs on the US and in return purchased less US soybeans, filling the gap primarily with Brazilian product.

Though China does not purchase as much US corn compared to soybeans, the potential for another trade war could leave a small gap for corn exports to China that Latin America could fill. In May, China approved two varieties of genetically modified (GM) corn for import that are grown in Argentina, allowing the country to export corn more easily to China. Market participants in Argentina believe there may be an opportunity to increase exports if China limits US purchases.

This year, much of Brazil's corn has been sold domestically as demand has increased in Matto Grosso, but the country may also be of benefit from the US election if Chinese demand increases.

US agriculture inputs at risk

Trump has also made promises to appoint Robert F Kennedy Jr to his administration, who has been outspoken against pesticide-intensive agriculture. Kennedy's views run counter to many of the polices enacted under Trump's first term, which included rolling back pesticide regulations. Notably, the EPA rejected a proposed ban of chlorpyrifos that are used in pesticides, which were later banned by the administration of President Joe Biden.

Trump has not yet defined Kennedy's role in his administration, but market participants are concerned he could place restrictions on chemical inputs that help improve US crop yields.

The US Department of Agriculture forecast US corn yields for the 2024-25 crop at 183.8 bu/acre and 53.1 bu/acre on 11 October, two new records that are partly due to chemical inputs utilized by most American farmers.

By Rachel Nelson

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12/05/25

US crops outlook benefits from ideal weather

St Louis, 12 May (Argus) — US crop conditions and planting progress improved again over the previous week, as the seven days ending Sunday brought an ideal mix of rain and dry days. The pace of planting for most US crops was ahead of the five-year average the week ending 11 May, with corn, soybean and spring wheat planting eachadvancing 18 percentage point or more from the previous week, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. The week brought multiple dry days suitable for field work for most of the US corn belt, with limited rain reported west of the Mississippi river. US corn planting pulled 6 percentage points ahead of the five-year average to 62pc completion during the week while soybean planning reached 48pc complete, 11 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Planting of both crops was propelled as Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska each planted more than 15pc of their anticipated crop acres during the week. US spring wheat planting reached 66pc complete as of 11 May, 17 percentage points ahead of the five-year average, according to USDA data. Planting reached 98pc complete in South Dakota, about three weeks ahead of normal, where failed winter wheat crops enabled producers to plant into empty fields earlier than normal. In Minnesota and North Dakota planting advanced 37 percentage points and 23 percentage points, respectively, from the prior week to put the planting pace in both states more than 20 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The week ahead is likely to bring another period of rapid planting for the southern corn belt, as Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri are currently projected to receive minimal precipitation prior to 15 May, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projections. An inch or more of rain is projected for Montana through Minnesota, starting 14 May and persisting though 20 May. Pockets of precipitation are expected for east of the Mississippi during the week ahead, but many areas are projected to receive a tenth of an inch of rain or less, allowing for opportunities to make additional planting progress. US winter wheat posts another week of improvement US winter wheat crop conditions reached their highest level for the week since 2019 as of 11 May, as many key states continued to post improvements. US winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition reached 54pc of the crop as of 11 May, up 13 percentage points from the five-year average. The four largest US winter wheat states posted improvements during the week as parts of Kansas, Texas, Colorado, and Montana all received an inch or more of precipitation over the week ending 11 May, according to NOAA data. In Kansas, 48pc of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of 11 May, 16 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Texas's winter wheat crop was rated 42pc in good-to-excellent condition, 15 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Colorado's winter wheat crop was rated 56pc in good-to-excellent condition, 24 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Montana's winter wheat crop was rated 83pc in good-to-excellent condition, 38 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The week ahead is expected to be drier for the southern portion of the high plains, with only limited rain expected for eastern Kansas by 18 May. Montana, Wyoming, and South Dakota are expected to receive more rain during the week ahead, with large portions of those states projected to receive an inch or more, according to NOAA. With the rain received so far, a dry week ahead is not likely to set back the progress made by the US winter wheat crop, and the week ahead will likely see continued improvements to the final quality and size of the crop. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Algeria’s OAIC seeks wheat in tender

12/05/25

Algeria’s OAIC seeks wheat in tender

Kyiv, 12 May (Argus) — Algeria's state grains buyer OAIC issued a tender for 11.5pc protein content milling wheat for July shipment, closing on 14 May. OAIC is seeking a nominal 50,000t of wheat on a cfr basis for shipment on 1-15 July or 16-31 July. For South American, Australian or Indian wheat, OAIC asked for shipment periods to be brought forward by one month. Algeria's wheat imports in 2025-26 are forecast at 9.2mn t by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) attache in Algiers. This would be lower than the 9.4mn t of imports forecast for 2024-25 by the USDA. Algeria last booked milling wheat in a tender nearly a month ago at $267.50/t cfr for shipment in June. By Kristin Yavorska Grains, oilseeds and veg oils tenders Buyer Issued Closes Status Cargo Shipment/delivery Price Seller Notes Algeria's OAIC 12-May 14-May Open 50,000t milling wheat Jul-25 cfr Tunisia's ODC 29-Apr 30-Apr Closed 25,000t barley Jun-25 $253.43/t Viterra cfr Tunisia Jordan's MIT 23-Apr 29-Apr Closed 60,000t milling wheat 2h Sep 2025 $259.99/t Al Dahra cfr Aqaba Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian PM reaffirms climate priority in new cabinet

12/05/25

Australian PM reaffirms climate priority in new cabinet

Sydney, 12 May (Argus) — Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese has reaffirmed renewable energy commitments with cabinet picks after the Labor party's election victory on 3 May. Chris Bowen, who led key changes to the safeguard mechanism , the capacity investment scheme (CIS) and fuel efficiency standards for new passenger and light commercial vehicles, remains minister for climate change and energy. Madeleine King, the minister for resources and northern Australia, retains her cabinet position, while Tanya Plibersek, previously the minister for environment, is now the minister for social services and is replaced by Murray Watt, formerly the minister for workplace relations. In the previous term, Plibersek failed to establish an environment protection authority and reform the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, which was an election promise in 2022, after intervention from Western Australian state minister Roger Cook. Environmental lobby group the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) has welcomed Watt, who was also the minister for agriculture for two years to 2024, into his new role. "Having a former agriculture minister in environment increases the opportunities for co-operation on the shared challenges facing nature protection and sustainable agriculture," the ACF said. The ACF also welcomed Chris Bowen in returning to his role as environment minister for his "clear mandate" to continue the energy transition. Josh Wilson remains assistant minister for climate change and energy. Participants in the renewable energy carbon credit industry are urging the new Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water to speed up the creation of new Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) methods in the new government term. They are also seeking greater transparency in ACCU data base , which requires legislative change. And renewable energy companies and lobby groups will be closely following a review of Australia's National Electricity Market wholesale market settings , which will need to be changed following the conclusion of the CIS tenders in 2027 and as Australia transitions to more renewables from its ageing coal-fired plants. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadian planting progress higher on favorable weather

09/05/25

Canadian planting progress higher on favorable weather

St Louis, 9 May (Argus) — Favorable moisture conditions propelled the pace of planting across the Canadian prairies, with Manitoba and Saskatchewan both reporting above-average planting progress at the start of May. Manitoba's crops report indicated favorable weather supported the pace of planting across the province, although the provincial crop report did not provide specific soil moisture condition indications. The advantageous weather was reflected in the province's planting pace, which reached 8pc complete as of 6 May, ahead of the five-year average of 6pc. In Saskatchewan, only 3pc of crop land was reported having surplus moisture soil conditions as of 7 May, down from an average of 4.9pc over the previous five-year period, according to the province's weekly crop report. Crop land rated with adequate moisture condition was reported at 78pc, up from an average of 66pc over the previous five years. Overall, spring planting reached 18pc complete for the province as of 5 May, up from an average of 10pc over the previous five years. Strong spring start to Canadian grains Winter crop emergence, and spring planting were both reported as above average for the first week of May, according to the provincial weekly crop updates. Winter wheat and rye were reported in good conditions across Manitoba, with all portions of the the province indicating positive emergence, early season growth and minimal winter kill as of 6 May. In Central Manitoba, up to 90pc of the crop was reported as surviving the winter and in good condition. Spring planting of wheat, oats, and barely were all reported as progressing either at pace with, or faster than normal at the end of the week across all parts of the province. In Saskatchewan, spring wheat and durum wheat planting advanced faster than the five-year-average pace , reaching 14pc and 32pc complete, respectively, as of 7 May. The pace of spring wheat planting was above average across most of the province, and advanced the most quickly in the key southwest region, which reached 32pc complete as of 7 May, 20 percentage points above the five-year average. Durum planting was similarly ahead of pace in the southwest, reaching 44pc complete, 28 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Saskatchewan spring barley and oat planting reached 19pc and 4.1pc complete as of 7 May. Like wheat, barley planting was ahead of pace across most regions of the provinces, but was the farthest ahead in the southwest, where it reached 52pc complete as of 7 May, 36 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Oat planting was reported as slightly behind the five-year average, despite all reported regions within the province indicating either average, or above average planting rates as of 7 May. The provincial crop report did not provide an explanation for this, and data in the following week could address this discrepancy. Canola planting makes early progress Canola planting has begun in Saskatchewan, and is expected in the following week in Manitoba, according to the provincial reports. Canola planting reached 9.6pc complete in Saskatchewan as of 7 May, up 5.3 percentage points of the reported average of the previous five years. As with other crops, canola planting was the most complete in the southwest portion of the province, where it was reported as 30pc complete, 21 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. In Manitoba, spring canola planting was reported as having just began in the central portion of the province, with planting expected to begin in the next week across the rest of the region. By Ryan Koory Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

09/05/25

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

Sao Paulo, 9 May (Argus) — Brazil's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.53pc in April, accelerating for a third month despite six central bank rate hikes since September aimed at cooling the economy. The country's annualized inflation accelerated from 5.48pc in March and 5.06pc in February, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Food and beverages rose by an annual 7.81pc, up from 7.68pc in March. Ground coffee increased at an annual 80.2pc, accelerating from 77.78pc in the month prior. Still, soybean oil prices decelerated to 22.83pc in April from 24.36pc in March. Domestic power consumption costs rose to 0.71pc from 0.33pc a month earlier. Transportation costs decelerated to 5.49pc from 6.05pc in March. Gasoline prices slowed to a 8.86pc gain from 10.89pc a month earlier. The increase in ethanol and diesel prices decelerated as well to 13.9pc and 6.42pc in April from 20.08pc and 8.13pc in March, respectively. The hike in compressed natural gas prices (CNG) fell to 3.5pc from 3.92pc a month prior. Inflation posted the seventh consecutive monthly increase above the central bank's goal of 3pc, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank increased its target interest rate for the sixth time in a row to 14.75pc on 7 May. The bank has been trying to counter soaring inflation as it has recently changed the way it tracks its goal. Monthly cooldown But Brazil's monthly inflation decelerated to 0.43pc in April from a 0.56pc gain in March. Food and beverages decelerated on a monthly basis to 0.82pc in April from a 1.17pc increase a month earlier, according to IBGE. Housing costs also decelerated to 0.24pc from 0.14pc in March. Transportation costs contracted by 0.38pc and posted the largest monthly contraction in April. Diesel prices posted the largest contraction at 1.27pc in April. Petrobras made three diesel price readjustments in April-May. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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