This year on track to be hottest on record: WMO

Spanish Market: Emissions
11/11/24

This year is on track to be the hottest on record, as warming "temporarily hits" 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said today.

The WMO based its report on six international datasets. EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus — one of the services that WMO uses — said last week that 2024 was "virtually certain" to be the hottest year on record.

The global average temperature in January-September was 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, the WMO found. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. The past 10 years, from 2015-24, have been the warmest on record, the WMO said.

But "one or more individual years exceeding 1.5°C does not necessarily mean that [the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal] is out of reach", the WMO said. Although the Paris accord does not give a specific timeframe, the breaching of warming levels "should be understood as an exceedance over an extended period, typically decades or longer", it added.

An initial indication from a WMO-established team suggests that long-term global warming is "likely to be about 1.3°C compared to the 1850-1900 [pre-industrial] baseline", the organisation said.

Even so, "every fraction of a degree of warming matters… every additional increment of global warming increases climate extremes, impacts and risks," WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said.

Ocean warming rates "show a particularly strong increase in the past two decades", the report found. Ocean heat content in 2023 was the highest recorded, while data show that "2024 has continued at comparable levels", it added. Oceans absorbed around 3.1mn TWh/yr of heat in 2005-23. Of the energy that accumulates in the earth's system, around 90pc is stored in the ocean, so its warming is expected to continue. This is "irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales", the WMO said.

The rise in global temperature is "turbo-charged by ever-increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the atmosphere", the WMO said. Concentrations of the three key GHGs — CO2, methane and nitrous oxide — reached record high observed levels in 2023 and measurements suggest that they will be higher in 2024, the WMO said. Levels of CO2 stood at 420 parts per million in 2023 — 51pc above pre-industrial levels — and methane at 1,934 parts per billion, 165pc higher than pre-industrial levels, the organisation said.

The report was released on the first day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit, which is set to run until 22 November in Baku, Azerbaijan.

By Georgia Gratton

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02/01/25

Viewpoint: Trump, macro issues ahead for US renewables

Houston, 2 January (Argus) — A combination of substantial policy shifts under president-elect Donald Trump and macroeconomic issues puts the US renewable power sector on uncertain footing to begin 2025. Analysts expect the federal tax credits that have bolstered new renewable generation during its substantial growth over the past decade will survive in some fashion, although Trump campaigned on repealing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). He also has promised 60pc tariffs on goods imported from China, a major player in the solar and battery storage supply chains. The ultimate effects may vary by project type and what the new administration is able to accomplish. Chinese solar products already face 50pc tariffs , which could temper any effects on the industry from Trump's protectionist trade policies, said Tom Harper, a partner at consultant Baringa specializing in power and renewables. But the new administration could make it more difficult to claim IRA incentives and could roll back federal power plant emissions rules , creating an environment that could slow the adoption of renewables. Utilities may become more cautious in using renewables because of higher costs, while others, such as companies with sustainability goals, might be able to weather the change, according to Harper. "There might be some very price insensitive corporate [power purchase agreement] buyers out there who are looking at a $45/MWh solar [contract] and now it's going to be $50/MWh after the tariff, and they'll be fine," he said. In addition, the US renewables industry is still weathering headwinds from supply chain constraints, increased borrowing rates and inflation, which have hampered new projects. For example, the PJM Interconnection — which spans 13 mostly Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia — had approved more than 37,000MW of generation at the end of third quarter 2024, with only 2,400MW of that partially in service. Developers have blamed the delays on financing challenges, long lead times for obtaining equipment and local opposition to projects. Global problems, local solutions Changes to state procurement strategies could help. Maryland state delegate Lorig Charkoudian (D) next year will propose new state-run solar, wind and hydropower solicitations that would first target projects that have already cleared PJM's reviews. Her approach would echo programs in New Jersey and Illinois, and ultimately reduce utilities' reliance on renewable energy certificates (REC) procured elsewhere. "The idea is to give a path for these projects, so presumably they can be built within a few years," Charkoudian said. Utilities would use the new procurements for the bulk of their RECs, covering remaining demand by buying legacy Maryland solar credits and other PJM RECs on the secondary market. But a quick fix for Maryland's broader renewable energy objectives is unlikely after utilities used the alternative compliance payment (ACP) for two-thirds of their 2023 REC requirements. The fee for each megawatt-hour by which utilities miss their compliance targets serves as a de facto ceiling on REC prices. Maryland's ACP is low compared to neighboring states, where the qualifying REC pool overlaps, meaning that credits eligible in the state can fetch a higher price elsewhere. While lawmakers could raise the ACP to mitigate those issues, those costs would ultimately fall on utility customers. "As best as I can tell, the options are raise the ACP or adjust how we do it," Charkoudian said. "We're really concerned about ratepayer impacts, and so I don't think there's a real appetite to raise the ACP." In other states, the policy landscape is less certain. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (D) has no clear path for his proposed hike to the state's alternative energy mandate, should he choose to revisit it, after Republicans retained their state Senate majority in November. New Jersey state senator Bob Smith (D) has been working for two years to enshrine in law governor Phil Murphy's (D) goal of 100pc clean electricity, but the proposal failed to escape committee in 2024 after dying in 2023 over opposition to its support for offshore wind . Is the answer blowing in the wind? Offshore wind is a slightly different matter. Trump has been critical of the industry and federal regulators control much of the project permitting in the US. Moreover, as a burgeoning sector with higher costs, it could be more sensitive to the loss of the investment tax credit (ITC). Based on current expenses, Baringa's analysis suggests that losing the ITC could increase project costs by "at least" $30/MWh and push offshore wind REC prices in some cases near $150/MWh. That would be a "difficult cost for states to swallow", according to Harper. "We've seen a few offshore wind developers already say, 'Hey, we're not going to spend a dime more until we know what's going on,'" Harper said. Despite the challenging landscape, Charkoudian expects Maryland will move forward in areas it can control, such as expanding the onshore transmission, that will make offshore wind viable, whether it's now or "eight years from now". By Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Power demand could bolster RGGI allowances

31/12/24

Viewpoint: Power demand could bolster RGGI allowances

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) CO2 allowances in 2025 could get a boost from a projected increase in electricity demand, despite uncertainty over the RGGI states' ongoing program review. Allowance prices hit record highs this past year, particularly during the summer as high temperatures raised expectations for emissions, increasing compliance demand. The first three auctions of 2024 cleared at record levels, draining the cost containment reserve (CCR) — a mechanism where additional allowances are released to temper rising prices — during the March auction . Prices followed suit in the secondary market, reaching multiple all-time highs before peaking on 20 August, with Argus assessing December 2024 and prompt-month allowances at $27.82/short ton (st) and $27.31/st, respectively. The increases have been fueled by anticipated growth in electricity demand as states work to implement policies promoting electrification in the transportation, industrial and heating sectors. In New England alone, peak power demand is forecast to double from 27,000MW to 55,000MW by 2050, according to an Acadia Center report . But the biggest source of this demand — and the steady climb in RGGI allowance prices since late-2023 — is the rapid expansion of data centers, according to University of Virginia professor William Shobe, who studies emissions market and auction design. New CO2-emitting sources such as natural gas-fired plants must factor rising allowance prices into the future cost of electricity in the long-run, Shobe said. As prices rise, other cleaner sources of energy, such as offshore wind and small modular reactors, will become more competitive, he said. Review the review The member states of RGGI launched a review of the program in February 2021. As power demand creates a potential for a bullish RGGI market, the review remains a source of uncertainty for participants and volatility in the secondary market. The program review includes considerations for a more ambitious emissions cap plan beyond 2030. But it has faced a number of delays and was originally scheduled to wrap up last year . Member states have provided few updates on the status and timeline of the review, leaving participants and environmental groups alike on tenterhooks over how a finalized program review — and with it, an updated emissions cap plan — will affect the future supply of allowances. Participants "are always thinking about future scarcity", said Shobe. "The more information we can give them about the future path of scarcity (of allowances) now, the more efficient their own behavior can be." The latest updates were released in September. They included an emissions cap plan that combined two previously floated proposals where the allowance budget starts at about 70mn st, declining at a rate consistent with a zero-by-2035 goal from 2027-2033 and a lower rate consistent with a zero-by-2040 goal from 2033-2037. Member states are also considering adding a second CCR and eliminating the emissions containment reserve (ECR), a market mechanism designed to respond to falling prices by withholding allowances. The review is planned to end in early 2025. A draft rule with additional modeling was to be released in the fall, but there have been no updates regarding another change in timeline. RGGI has not responded to requests for comment. States in limbo The status of Virginia — which left RGGI in 2023 — and Pennsylvania as potential members is another point of uncertainty as those states' participation are under legal scrutiny in their respective courts. Virginia's Floyd County Circuit Court in November ruled that regulation enabling the state's exit from RGGI was unlawful since it was enacted without legislative approval. Governor Glen Youngkin's (R) administration intends to appeal to the Supreme Court of Virginia sometime in 2025, but has declined to specify when. While it is unlikely Virginia will rejoin RGGI in the interim, its participation would increase demand for allowances and put an "upward pressure on price", Shobe said. Much of this demand would be fueled by data center expansion, as northern Virginia is the largest market for data centers in the world, with 25pc of all reported data center operational capacity in the Americas and 13pc globally, according to a report by a state legislative commission. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania is also reviewing a lower-court decision striking down CO2 trading regulation allowing the state to participate in RGGI. Governor Josh Shapiro (D) has reluctantly defended Pennsylvania's membership in the program as an issue of preserving executive authority, and Republican state lawmakers have been attempting to revive legislation that would cement the state's exit from RGGI. The state's high court could issue a decision sometime in 2025. But Governor Shapiro also proposed a state-specific power plant CO2 cap-and-trade program earlier this year — another development participants should keep an eye on. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US Supreme Court tees up more energy cases

31/12/24

Viewpoint: US Supreme Court tees up more energy cases

Washington, 31 December (Argus) — The US Supreme Court is on track for another term that could significantly affect the energy sector, with rulings anticipated in the new year that could narrow environmental reviews and challenge California's authority to set its own tailpipe standards. The Supreme Court earlier this month held arguments in Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v Eagle County, Colorado , a case in which the justices are being asked to decide whether federal rail regulators adequately studied the environmental effects of a proposed 88-mile railway that would transport 80,000 b/d of crude. A lower court last year found the review, prepared under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), should have analyzed how building the project would affect drilling and refining. Business groups want the Supreme Court to issue an expansive ruling that would limit NEPA reviews only to "proximate" effects, such as how rail traffic could affect nearby wildlife, rather than reviewing distance effects. The court recently agreed to hear a separate case that could restrict California's unique authority under the Clean Air Act to issue its own greenhouse gas regulations for newly sold cars and pickup trucks that are more stringent than federal standards. Oil refiners and biofuel producers in that case, Diamond Alternative Energy v EPA , say they should have "standing" to advance a lawsuit challenging those standards — even though they could now show prevailing in the case would change fuel demand — based on the alleged "coercive and predictable effects of regulation on third parties". These two cases, likely to be decided by the end of June, follow on the heels of the court's blockbuster decision in June overturning the decades-old "Chevron deference", a foundation for administration law that had given federal agencies greater flexibility when writing regulations. Last term, the court also limited agency enforcement powers and halted a rule targeting cross-state air pollution sources. This term's cases are unlikely to have as far-reaching consequences for the energy sector as overturning Chevron. But industry officials hope the two pending cases will provide clarity on issues that have been problematic for developers, including the scope of federal environmental reviews and the ability of industry to win legal "standing" to bring lawsuits. Two other cases could have significant effects for the oil sector, if the court agrees to consider them at a conference set for 10 January. Utah has a pending complaint before the court designed to force the US to dispose of 18.5mn acres of "unappropriated" federal land in the state, including oil-producing acreage. Utah argues that indefinitely retaining the land — which covers about a third of Utah — is unconstitutional. In another pending case, Sunoco and other oil companies have asked for a ruling that could halt a series of lawsuits filed against them in state courts for alleged damages from greenhouse gas emissions. President-elect Donald Trump's re-election could create complications for cases pending before the Supreme Court, if the incoming administration adopts new legal positions. Trump plans to nominate John Sauer, who successfully represented Trump in his presidential immunity case, as his solicitor general before the Supreme Court. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Bearish year ahead for NOx markets

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Bearish year ahead for NOx markets

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) NOx allowance markets will likely face a bearish year in 2025, as the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump creates uncertainty over the fate of the latest federal regulation to curb emissions. The US Supreme Court halted implementation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) "good neighbor" plan in June with a nationwide stay. This left an already stunted regulation to cut NOx emissions, a precursor to harmful ground-level ozone, obsolete for the foreseeable future. EPA finalized a plan in March 2023 to help downwind states meet the 2015 national air quality standards by setting tighter ozone season NOx caps on power plants covered by CSPAR as well as new limits for industrial facilities in more than 20 upwind states. But by the time the justices issued the stay, the number of covered states had already shrunk by more than half because of lower-court orders pausing implementation in 12 states. Prices for seasonal NOx allowances have flatlined and the market has been illiquid over much of 2024 because of uncertainty over how numerous legal challenges against the good neighbor plan would play out. Argus has assessed Group 2 allowances at $775/short ton (st) and Group 3 allowances at a record low $1,250/st since January. This could change, albeit at a slow pace, because EPA finalized an interim rule in November to comply with the nationwide stay. Power plants that had been covered by the good neighbor plan are now under less-stringent NOx budgets tied to older air quality standards, and the 10 states that had been participating in the Group 3 market prior to the stay are now reshuffled into Group 2 and a separate 12-state "expanded" Group 2 market. All that remains is… uncertainty In the new year, the market will wait to see how the Trump administration will deal with the good neighbor plan and the associated legal challenges in the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit and the US Supreme Court. Because of the stay, there is no hurry for the new administration to address the legal woes, and it is unlikely the DC Circuit will soon rule on the legality of EPA's rejection of state ozone reduction plans. The Trump EPA, following precedent of prior administrations, will likely ask the court to pause litigation until it decides whether to continue defending the plan, according to Jeff Holmstead, assistant administrator at the agency under former president George W Bush. The agency will likely revoke the plan at some point and replace it with a rule that is more "modest" and would not significantly affect allowance prices, he said. The EPA under Trump could ultimately decide that upwind states do not significantly contribute to interstate pollution, reversing a determination that has underpinned the good neighbor plan. That could lead to downwind states asking the agency to address specific sources that contribute to their air quality problems, said Carrie Jenks, executive director of Harvard Law School's Environmental and Energy Law Program. The Supreme Court is also hearing a case to decide the proper court venue for Clean Air Act disputes, which involves the good neighbor plan. The Trump administration likely will agree with various states and industry groups that say EPA's rejections of individual state plans are not a "nationally applicable" action and must be litigated in the regional circuit courts, but the Supreme Court is likely to continue the venue case, Jenks said. Oral arguments will likely be held early next year. It is also unclear how Lee Zeldin, Trump's pick to lead EPA will affect the regulation. Zeldin is a moderate, given his history, and will likely "not want to impose significant new burdens on fossil fuel power plants", Holmstead said. Trump's plans to downsize the federal bureaucracy could also affect future rulemakings, according to Jenks. "Nobody really knows what's going to happen," she said. As a result, market activity is likely to remain limited in the coming months as participants await legal and regulatory clarity. In addition, markets are likely to be oversupplied now that power plants are under lighter NOx caps. Most states in the seasonal NOx markets were well below their limits for the 2024 ozone season, despite a 9.2pc increase in cumulative emissions in the expanded Group 2. EPA will also allow some power plants to convert vintage 2021-23 Group 3 allowances to Group 2 or expanded Group 2 allowances, adding to supply. With low demand and a potential oversupply, seasonal NOx allowances could see prices fall . By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Carbon offsets face bumpy road

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Carbon offsets face bumpy road

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Carbon offset credits from California's cap-and-trade program will meet reduced compliance demand next year, while program updates promise to upend market dynamics. Each carbon offset under the joint California-Quebec carbon market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) equals 1 metric tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sources not covered by either cap-and-trade program. California and Quebec allow covered entities to use offsets from either program to meet their annual GHG emissions obligations. But market regulators are eyeing changes for carbon offsets in Quebec that may have wider impacts. Quebec is considering phasing out carbon offsets by 2030 as part of an ongoing rulemaking for a more-stringent program. While the province has not shared its final approach, regulators have floated in workshops either limiting offset use to 4pc of overall obligations for 2027-29 or putting offsets under the program's emissions cap. Quebec's Environment Ministry allows for covered entities to utilize carbon offsets for up to 8pc of outstanding emissions, including from California. Meanwhile, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) allows for covered entities to use CCOs for 4pc of obligations through 2025 and for 6pc starting in 2026, though at least half must come from projects that provide direct environmental benefits to the state (DEBs). After 2031, Quebec is mulling transitioning to a government carbon offset purchase-and-retire system, but it remains unclear how that might function — and what it means for the longevity of carbon offset projects in Quebec, said Joey Hoekstra, a policy associate with International Emissions Trading Association (IETA). "That mechanism and how that is going to look like and what that will be, there has not been a lot of details," he said. Quebec plans to finalize its program changes early in 2025 , with implementation in the spring. The move away from carbon offsets has implications for California's program, ClimeCo chief operating officer Derek Six said. "Quebec is an outlet for the non-DEBs credits in California," Six said. The province issues very few carbon offsets under its own protocols, just under 1.8mn since 2014, according to provincial data published in November. California, which allows for projects to generate credits in and outside the state, issued nearly 13.8mn CCOs in 2023 alone, with just under 9.6mn from non-DEBs projects. The CCOs without DEBs are an oversupplied market, said Six, compared with the limited number of projects that generate the more expensive DEBs credits in California. Argus last assessed California Carbon Offsets (CCOs) seller-guaranteed offsets at $14.60/t, CCOs with a three-year invalidation at $14/t and CCOs with an eight-year invalidation at $13.90/t on 20 December. CCOs with direct environmental benefits to the state (DEBS) currently trade at an $15.50/t premium to non-DEBs CCOs. In issuances over the past five years, non-DEBs have formed the bulk of credits distributed by CARB, with DEBS-eligible credits only going as high as 42.3pc of total issuances this year. Covered emitters in Quebec used 13.2mn non-DEBs CCOs to meet their 2021-2023 compliance obligations, along with roughly 75,000 CCOs with DEBS. Provincial entities used just under 366,400 carbon offsets generated in Quebec for compliance. California emitters utilized 13.2mn non-DEBs CCOs and nearly 13mn DEBs CCOs for their 2021-2023 compliance. Washington, which hopes to link its cap-and-trade program with the WCI as early as 2026, is unlikely to stopgap the shortfall in demand for non-DEBs credits once it allows outside credits, instead feeding further demand for DEBS CCOs. The state allows participants to use carbon offsets for 5pc of its emissions and a further 3pc from projects on federally recognized tribal lands over 2024-2026, reduced to 4pc and 2pc, respectively, for 2027-2049. The state's ongoing linkage rulemaking would allow the participants to use offsets from within a linked jurisdiction, which will include CCOs with DEBs and Quebec offsets. Washington's cap-and-invest, which started in 2023, has generated few offsets of its own so far — just over 310,000t, all from ODS projects. But that may change in the short term, Six said. Project developers have likely been holding off over this year until voters rejected an effort to repeal the state's program in November. "I would not be surprised if you all of a sudden see a bit of a flood of project listings from people who had Washington ODS material," he said. Washington is also conducting a rulemaking to increase the variety of projects resulting in carbon offsets credits. Ecology plans to implement these changes in summer 2025. But carbon offsets remain unlikely to be much of a cost-saving measure for compliance in Washington, Six said. Washington, unlike California or Quebec, puts them under its annual emissions cap and removes allowances in line with offset use. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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