Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

Peru bets on trade ties with Asia as Apec starts

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 11/11/24

Heads of 16 countries are in Peru this week to kick off the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's (Apec) annual Leaders Week, as government officials in Lima look to grow their partnerships with Asia while staving off potentially disruptive strikes.

The summit comes at a fragile time for Peru, where President Dina Boluarte has a historically low presidential approval rate of 4pc and bus drivers and small business owners are demanding protections from a wave of extortion.

The event begins today with meetings among senior officials of the 21 member countries and closes on 16 November with the leaders' meetings, the pinnacle Apec event. With the confirmed arrival of Chinese president Xi Jinping later this week, the summit is likely to strengthen ties between Peru and Asia, amid US concerns of China's growing influence in Latin America.

US president Joe Biden is also expected to travel to Lima from 14-16 November, according to the White House. He is then slated to go to Manaus and Rio de Janeiro to meet with Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva.

This week is also the scheduled ribbon-cutting of the Chancay megaport, a $1.3bn commercial hub north of Lima that will cut the transport time between Latin America and Asia from 35 days to 25 days. Cosco Shipping, the Chinese state-owned port operating company, owns 60pc of the project and the rest is owned by Peru mining company Volcan. It aims to become the main commercial port in the Pacific for neighboring Brazil and has a 17.8-meter depth, the greatest in Latin America.

While the port will be inaugurated on 14 November, Cosco Shipping has said operations are expected to begin in early 2025.

Peru's priorities for Apec include trade investments and the energy transition, with a focus on its critical mining sector — and workers' transition to the formal economy in Peru, where the informality rate is about 73pc. These goals extend to the CEO Summit, which is running simultaneously and will host hundreds of business leaders from Asia looking to invest in Peru's energy and mining sectors.

Angel Manero, Peru's agriculture minister, said last week the government expects to approve sanitary protocols with China to export nuts, with the potential of expanding to meat imports, according to the official gazette. He added there are talks with China about attracting investments through the creation of Special Economic Zones.

Peru last hosted the Apec in 2016. This time, workers in Lima — led by bus drivers' unions — have vowed a three-day strike during Apec to call attention to a string of killings they say are linked to resistance to extortion. Among their main asks is repealing a recent law approved by congress that they say weakens prosecution of organized crime by, among other things, changing its definition to exclude crimes of extortion.

Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén has repeatedly asked workers not to strike to avoid "a bad show" during the high-level meetings.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs


01/04/25
01/04/25

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Volatility in the peso/dollar exchange rate may help to partially offset any tariffs that US President Donald Trump decides to impose on imports from Mexico as the ensuing peso depreciation would make its exports more competitive, said analysts from US bank Barclays. President Trump will announce Wednesday his next decision related to the threat to impose a 25pc tariff against imports from its commercial partners Mexico and Canada. Trump has delayed the decision twice, and it is likely that he will do so again, given the serious repercussions the tariffs could cause to the US economy, said Latam chief economist at Barclays, Gabriel Casillas, during a webinar held Monday. The base scenario for Barclays is that Trump's administration will finally step back from imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada and rather go for an early renegotiation of the (US Mexico Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) this year, said Casillas. In this scenario, the Mexican peso would strengthen to between Ps19.5 to Ps19.00 to the greenback, he added. However, if Trump's administration decides to impose the 25pc tariffs on all Mexican imports as he has threatened to do, then the peso would weaken to Ps24/$1, said Erik Martinez, foreign exchange research Analyst at Barclays during the same webinar. "If tariffs were imposed, 25 percent on all imports, we think a good portion of this would be absorbed by the exchange rate," said Casillas. A weaker peso makes Mexican exports more competitive abroad. The Mexican peso on Tuesday was trading at around Ps20.30 to the dollar, and has weakened by 18.5pc in the past year from about Ps16.6 to the dollar a year ago. If President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration avoids the tariffs, the peso may strengthen to around Ps 19.00/$1 in upcoming days, said Martinez. If the tariffs are applied during a brief period or only for the automobile sector, the exchange rate could range between Ps21.00-22.00 per dollar, said Martinez. However, even without any tariff being applied, Mexico's economy is expected to grow only by around 0.7pc this year, less than the estimates made late in 2024 of around 1.4pc, due to the deceleration of the US economy, Mexico's main trading partner, said Casillas. The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, specially in the industrial sector, which will impact Mexico's growth for the year. Also, this uncertainty is directly affecting any upside expected from so-called nearshoring as companies would now lose interest in moving their manufacturing lines to Mexico if there is no clear benefit in using the USMCA to avoid tariffs, said Casillas. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US manufacturing contracts in March: ISM


01/04/25
01/04/25

US manufacturing contracts in March: ISM

Houston, 1 April (Argus) — Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector fell back into contraction in March after a brief expansion as businesses braced for US president Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on imports. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49 in March, down from the 50.3 in February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. That followed three months of expansion — above the breakeven threshold of 50 — following 26 months of contraction. The new orders index contracted for a second month in a row, falling to 45.2, down by 3.4 points from the prior month. Production fell to 48.3 from 50.7. New export orders fell to 49.6 in March from 51.4 the prior month. "Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists' companies responded to demand confusion," ISM said. "Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth." The prices index surged to 69.4, up from 62.4 in February and the highest since mid-2022. Employment fell by 2.9 points to 47.6. The supplier delivery index fell by 1 point to 53.5, indicating ongoing slowing in deliveries and slowing demand. Trump plans to unveil sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs on major foreign trade partners on 2 April after previewing or announcing multiple tariff actions since taking office, including a 20pc tariff on all imports from China and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum that both took effect last month. Trump last month also announced a 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, scheduled to go into effect on 3 April. The measures, together with mass federal government layoffs and spending cuts, spooked US equity markets, which last month posted heavy losses. Comments focus on tariff confusion Comments from survey participants highlighted uncertainty over how Trump's tariff plans would effect operations and the economy. "Acute shortages continue to impact supply chain continuity," a transportation equipment executive said. "Chinese restrictions on critical minerals such as germanium have caused major shortages, resulting in all supply needed in 2025 already assumed — and, not surprisingly, significant price increases as a result." "Customers are pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing pressures," according to a computer and electronic products executive. "Business condition is deteriorating at a fast pace," a machinery executive commented. "Tariffs and economic uncertainty are making the current business environment challenging." "New order levels have increased and are better than expected," a fabricated metals executive said. "We suspect that our customers are trying to build inventory at current prices to get ahead of expected tariff and related cost increases." By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ArcelorMittal raises NW EU HRC offer to €700/t


01/04/25
01/04/25

ArcelorMittal raises NW EU HRC offer to €700/t

London, 1 April (Argus) — European market leader ArcelorMittal has raised its hot-rolled coil (HRC) offer to €700/t base in the north. Its previous offer was €680/t base. The producer recently has seen an increase in enquiries and bookings, aided by the steel safeguard review. This trend has been most prevalent on HRC in the north, as well as cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanised across Europe. European mills have been in no rush to sell, with delivery performances under pressure from some as a result of low utilisation rates and issues at some producers causing backlogs. At the same time, mills expect import arrivals to fall in the coming months, although there could be some overhang this quota period, after the safeguard review and imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on Egypt, Japan and Vietnam. In the futures market today, a fourth-quarter strip traded at €670/t, broadly in line with the settlement on 31 March. The physical market is largely quiet, as participants wait to see how much material clears today and what tariffs are announced by US president Donald Trump. North EU mill margins have nearly reached a year-long high in recent days, with the spread for NW EU HRC over blast furnace costs having reached €181/ on 31 March, the highest level since €189/t on 5 April. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February


01/04/25
01/04/25

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February

Singapore, 1 April (Argus) — Singapore's base oil imports increased for the third consecutive month in February, GTT data show, supported by stable demand in the city state. Import growth slowed in February, in line with a drop in industrial performance. The country's manufacturing output fell by 1.3pc on the year, and by 7.5pc on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, according to data from the Economic Development Board. The overall manufacturing sector grew for the 18th consecutive month, but PMI slipped from 50.9 to 50.7 in February, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management show, in line with growing uncertainties over global trade flows. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Supplies from South Korea recovered from January's five-month low, in line with higher exports from the northeast Asian country, but remained below the five-year monthly average of 12,300t. Lower South Korean volumes were balanced by higher receipts of Taiwanese cargoes, which were likely boosted by delays in customs clearance a month earlier. South Korea and Taiwan are major producers of Group II base oils. Zero imports were recorded from Japan for the third consecutive month. Exports from the Group I supplier have fallen ahead of a series of plant maintenances by Japanese refiners ENEOS and Idemitsu that will affect around 925,000t/yr of refining capacity over February-November. Increased Saudi Arabian cargoes made up for the shortfall in Japanese volumes, with imports recorded for the 10th consecutive month. Saudi Arabia produces Group I and II base oils, but supplies to Singapore likely comprise of mainly Group I volumes because of the regional shortage from permanent plant closures in Japan. By Tara Tang Singapore's base oil imports t Feb'25 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Jan-Feb'25 y-o-y ± % Qatar 23,135.0 -12.2 22.6 49,488.0 74.2 South Korea 9,090.0 30.2 -18.2 16,074.0 -9.3 Taiwan 12,458.0 NA 825.6 12,458.0 119.0 Saudi Arabia 5,306.0 76.9 5.7 8,306.0 65.5 Thailand 5,046.0 -16.4 152.8 11,081.0 234.3 Total 77,915.0 1.9 75.7 154,392.0 129.6 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more