Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
02/12/24

Mexico's central bank (Banxico) maintained its base-case 2025 GDP growth estimate at 1.2pc, with a range of 0.4pc to 2pc, citing heightened global uncertainty fueled by geopolitical conflicts and potential shifts in international economic policies.

Central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez last week addressed US president-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods, urging caution until the trade situation clarifies.

Mexican president Claudia Shienbaum initially responded with a firm stance, saying Mexico could apply counter-tariffs. Later, Sheinbaum and Trump had a "friendly" phone call to discuss issues surrounding the proposed 25pc tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, Sheinbaum said.

Banxico raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.8pc from 1.5pc in its previous quarterly report in August, driven by stronger-than-expected third-quarter performance. Still, Banxico noted that the additional growth is driven by increased spending on imported goods rather than domestic production, particularly in investment and private consumption.

Inflation dynamics remain mixed. While headline inflation rose to an annualized 4.76pc in October, core inflation eased to 3.58pc, its lowest level since mid-2020. Rodriguez emphasized progress on inflation despite external uncertainties, signaling room for further monetary easing.

Banxico cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.25pc on 14 November and is widely expected to lower it again to 10pc at its 19 December meeting. Projections from Mexican finance executives institution (IMEF) suggest the rate could drop to 8.25pc by the end of 2025.

Banxico also revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.7pc from 4.4pc in the August report but expects inflation to return to its 2–4pc target range by early 2025, with a 3pc rate projected by the fourth quarter.

Other adjustments include a downgraded forecast for formal job creation in 2024 and 2025, with the range estimate for full-year job creation in 2024 dropping to 250,000–350,000 from 410,000-550,000 in August. The 2025 estimate came down to 340,000–540,000 from 430,000–630,000.The 2025 trade deficit outlook was also tightened to $14.9bn–$22.1bn, compared to a previous range of $13.7bn–$23.7bn.

By James Young

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02/12/24

Lower prices support German fuel demand

Hamburg, 2 December (Argus) — German demand for heating oil, diesel and E5 gasoline increased in the week to 29 November, supported by a fall in domestic prices. The switch to winter grades and low stocks further boosted fuel demand. Middle distillates traded at lower prices nationwide last week, with heating oil and diesel prices falling by around €0.60/100 litres compared with the previous week. The drop was in line with a decline in the value of Ice gasoil futures, which came under pressure from the prospect of US tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico indicated by president-elect Donald Trump. Oversupply from refineries in the south and west of Germany put further downward pressure on domestic prices last week. Suppliers offered heating oil, diesel and gasoline from Bayernoil's 215,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg complex, Miro's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery and Shell's 334,000 b/d Rhineland complex at lower prices than surrounding loading locations in order to fulfil their contractual offtake volumes by the end of the month. The switch to winter grades supported German fuel demand last week. Consumers ordered smaller quantities of diesel in recent weeks as they waited for the switch to winter specification grades before replenishing their stocks. Since the switch, traded diesel spot volumes reported to Argus have steadily risen. An anticipated €10/t rise in Germany's CO2 tax next year will likely lead to increased stockpiling of product from mid-December, according to traders. End-consumer tank levels for diesel were at just 52pc at the end of last week. The extent to which the increase in the CO2 tax will put pressure on diesel imports depends on whether German refineries can maintain current high throughput levels. For the time being, imports into Germany via the country's northern ports or along the Rhine are not feasible because of the comparatively low domestic prices. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India’s base oil imports rise in 1H FY24-25

02/12/24

India’s base oil imports rise in 1H FY24-25

Singapore, 2 December (Argus) — India's base oil imports rose by 33pc on the year to 1.54mn t in the first half of the country's 2024-25 fiscal year, between April and September, data from GTT show. Blenders likely imported more cargoes owing to a decrease in domestic base oil production caused by plant issues and maintenances. This happened despite a slowdown in India's economic growth. The country's GDP is estimated to have grown by 6pc in April-September, compared with 8.2pc in the same period in the previous year, government data show. Vehicle sales in the country reached 1.31mn units between April and September, a 12.5pc increase from the previous year, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam). This likely boosted demand for finished lubricant. Base oil imports in September rose for the second consecutive month to 236,427t, as demand increased towards the end of the monsoon season. South Korea continued to be the top supplier to India, with imports reaching 115,487t in September, an 81pc increase from the previous year. By Chng Li Li India base oils imports t Sep'24 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Apr-Sep FY24/25 y-o-y ± % South Korea 115,487 29.9 80.7 648,412 63.4 Singapore 33,356 -4.8 -31.0 215,775 35.2 Spain 22,896 177.6 201.3 80,309 71.0 Saudi Arabia 20,917 21.6 82.1 120,738 11.2 Qatar 11,047 594.3 1,235.8 78,950 41.3 Total 236,427 11.8 22.1 1,537,599 33.2 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ meeting delayed to 5 December

28/11/24

Opec+ meeting delayed to 5 December

Dubai, 28 November (Argus) — A meeting of Opec+ ministers scheduled for 1 December has been postponed to 5 December. Opec said the delay is because of a conflicting travel schedule for energy ministers of Mideast Gulf countries, as the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) leaders summit in Kuwait overlaps with the Opec+ meeting. The Opec+ meeting, which was to be held online, will coincide with a decision to be taken by eight member countries on whether to press ahead with a plan to begin the phased return of 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts to the market from January. This was to begin in October, but concerns about the strength of oil demand and price weakness prompted the group to postpone to December and then to January. The UAE will start increasing its output from January regardless, as a 300,000 b/d increase to its official production quota kicks in over the course of 2025. Any increase to Opec+ supply would be tempered by additional cuts that some of the eight will be making in the coming months to compensate for past overproduction. Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia are the group's leading overproducers. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on 27 November talked with Kazakhstan's energy minister Almasadam Satkaliyev and Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, Moscow's point man on Opec+ matters. A day earlier, Prince Abdulaziz met in Baghdad with Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Novak. The statements from both meetings emphasised "full adherence to the [current policy] agreement, including the voluntary production cuts agreed upon by the eight participating countries, as well as compensating for any excess production." The 5 December meeting will be a third consecutive Opec+ ordinary ministerial meeting to be held virtually rather than in Vienna. The last time Opec+ held its ministerial meeting in-person was in June 2023. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Oct naphtha imports fall on weak petchem demand

28/11/24

Japan’s Oct naphtha imports fall on weak petchem demand

Tokyo, 28 November (Argus) — Japan's naphtha imports totalled 1.18mn t in October, down by 10pc on the year but up by 5pc on the month, according to the country's finance ministry. Naphtha imports were lower on the year, given the continuous weakness in domestic petrochemical demand. This lowered cracker operating rates, which have been weakening since July, by 5.2 percentage points from a year earlier to 77.4pc in October, according to Japan Petrochemical Industry Association (JPCA). Cracker operating rates below 90pc indicate weakness in petrochemical consumption and the Japanese economy, JPCA said. The rates have been below 90pc since August 2022. Against a backdrop of weaker petrochemical consumption, ethylene production by domestic crackers in October fell by 7.4pc on the year to 414,500t. On a year-on-year basis, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride output dropped by 5pc and by 12pc to 174,000t to 121,100t, respectively. Acrylonitrile output fell by 32pc to 21,300t, while styrene-butadiene rubber production stood at 15,600t, down by 25pc on the year. Aromatics xylene and benzene output fell by 2.6pc to 328,200t and by 1.5pc to 232,500t, respectively. By Nanami Oki Japan naphtha imports (t) Oct-24 Oct-23 Sep-24 y-o-y % ± m-o-m % ± Saudi Arabia 40,663 82,359 137,722 -70 -51 UAE 414,109 306,886 564,083 -27 35 Kuwait 205,941 284,441 109,249 89 -28 Qatar 148,927 147,786 195,703 -24 1 Bahrain 0 55,054 24,632 -100 -100 South Korea 179,544 92,986 89,023 102 93 Malaysia 0 0 0 - - India 38,742 0 8,516 355 - China 0 0 0 - - Indonesia 0 0 0 - - Singapore 0 0 0 - - Thailand 0 28,421 27,165 -100 -100 Russia 0 0 0 - - Australia 0 0 66,854 -100 - US 70,425 54,440 26,448 166 29 Others 79,178 69,289 60,090 32 14 Total 1,177,530 1,121,663 1,309,486 -10 5 Source: Finance ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US refiners cannot readily replace Canadian oil: AFPM

27/11/24

US refiners cannot readily replace Canadian oil: AFPM

Calgary, 27 November (Argus) — US refiners that process Canadian crude would not easily find alternative supplies if president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his tariff plans, potentially threatening the viability of some fuel producers, a US refining industry group warned today. Trump on Monday said he would impose a 25pc tariff on imports of all goods from Canada and Mexico, claiming those two countries need to tighten borders they share with the US. Such tariffs would be problematic for US refiners that have come to rely on a steady diet of Canadian crude, much of which comes from the western, oil-rich province of Alberta. "There is no easy, fit-for-purpose replacement for this crude oil," the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), which advocates for many US refiners, said on Wednesday. Canadian oil is the number one refinery feedstock in the US midcontinent, accounting for 65pc of all crude runs in the region, according to AFPM. Refiners in the region have limited connectivity to US crude and refined products pipelines, so tariffs could sharply increase operating costs and even threaten their viability, the association said. Many refineries were built prior to the US shale boom and are suited for heavier, high-sulfur crudes that typically come from foreign sources. Canada exported about $428bn in goods and services to the US in 2022, while the US exported $481bn to Canada, according to US data. Petroleum makes up a substantial part of Canada's exports, with roughly 4mn b/d of Canada's 5mn b/d of production shipped to the US. Of this, about 3mn b/d is destined for the US midcontinent region. "The crude oil pipeline logistics have changed over the decades such that the loss of Canadian oil into these regions can only be replaced with domestic production," Lipow Oil Associates president and industry analyst Andrew Lipow told Argus Wednesday. "Unfortunately, there is very little pipeline capacity to deliver crude oil produced in Texas and New Mexico to refineries in Montana, Minnesota, and Chicagoland." Lipow suggested three scenarios, or some combination thereof, may unfold: Canadian crude would need to be further discounted to overcome the tariff; US refiners would pay more for crude, including for domestic WTI that would rise to import parity; or Canadian crude would be exempted from tariffs and there would be no change. "The extent of the price impact depends on one's locations, but certainly seems to me that the consumer will be paying more for energy," Lipow said. Tariffs on crude and refined products "will not help our industry compete, nor will they support US energy dominance and affordability for consumers", AFPM said. The American Petroleum Institute (API), another industry group, agreed. "Maintaining the free flow of energy products across our borders is critical for North American energy security and US consumers," an API spokesperson said. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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