Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Emissions
03/12/24

The US Department of Treasury said it still plans to issue guidance before president Joe Biden leaves office next year clarifying how refiners can qualify for a new tax credit for clean fuels.

The agency "anticipates issuing guidance" around the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit before 20 January to "enable producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025", disputing a report today that the Biden administration planned on punting implementation to president-elect Donald Trump. The credit, set to kick off regardless on 1 January, will differ from some prior federal incentives by offering greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.

Treasury did not commit to any definitive timeline for releasing guidance, and it did not immediately clarify how thorough any eventual rule would be.

Companies in the biofuel supply chain say the current lack of clarity from Treasury — particularly on how it will calculate carbon intensities for various fuels and feedstocks — has slowed first quarter dealmaking. Government guidance could make or break the economics of certain plants, particularly for relatively higher-carbon fuels like soy biodiesel or jet fuel derived from corn ethanol.

The US Department of Agriculture's timing for releasing a complementary rule to quantify the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices, envisioned as a way to reward refineries sourcing feedstocks from farms taking steps to reduce their emissions, is unclear. The agency said today that a "rulemaking process" in response to its request for information on climate-smart farm practices is "under consideration" but did not elaborate. Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack had insisted earlier this year that his department would release some package before the end of Biden's term.

Some industry groups remain pessimistic that the Biden administration will answer all of the thorny questions still lingering around the 45Z credit, especially given signals earlier this year that other Inflation Reduction Act programs would take priority. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, says final regulations around 45Z "seem highly unlikely" before the end of Biden's term but that it hopes Treasury releases at least some "basic information" or safe harbor provisions.

Delays getting credit guidance could prod Congress to extend expiring biofuel incentives for another year, including a $1/USG credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel. Some formerly skeptical lobbying groups have recently come on board in support of an extension, fearing that biofuel production could slump next year given the lack of 45Z guidance and uncertainty about how Trump will implement clean energy tax credits.

But four lobbyists speaking on background told Argus today that the proposal still faces long odds. Congress has various other priorities for its relatively brief lame duck session, including government funding and disaster aid, that take precedence over biofuels. A staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee said last month that Republicans have been reluctant to negotiate tax policy in a divided Congress this year when they are planning a far-reaching tax package under unified Republican control next year.

By Cole Martin

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06/05/25

US EIA will not release international outlook in 2025

Washington, 6 May (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) no longer expects to publish one of its major energy reports this year after losing some of its staff through President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal workforce. The EIA does not plan to publish its International Energy Outlook (IEA) — which models long-term global trends in energy supply and demand — this year because of a loss of staff responsible for producing the report, according to an internal email initially reported by the news outlet ProPublica . The EIA confirmed the authenticity of the email. "At this point, you can assume that we will not be releasing the IEO this year," the EIA's Office of Energy Analysis assistant administrator Angelina LaRose wrote in the 16 April email. "This was a difficult decision based on the loss of key resources." Oil and gas producers, traders, utility companies, federal regulators and foreign governments have come to rely on the data and models from the EIA, an independent agency within the US Department of Energy. The 2025 version of the IEO might still be published early next year, the EIA said. The agency for now is focusing on trying to "preserve as much institutional knowledge as possible" with an "all hands-on deck" effort under which remaining staff will document models and procedures on long-term modeling, LaRose wrote in the email. Trump and his administration have worked to cut the size of the government's workforce through voluntary buyouts and a process known as a reduction in force. The EIA has yet to say how many personnel it has lost, but about a third of the agency's 350 staffers have accepted voluntary buyouts, according to a person familiar with the situation. The White House last week proposed an 18pc budget cut for the non-nuclear portions of the Department of Energy, but has yet to say if it is seeking to cut spending at the EIA. Last month, the EIA released its premier report, the Annual Energy Outlook , but omitted its traditional in-depth analysis. A technical issue on 1 May delayed the release of a key natural gas storage report by more than three hours, the EIA said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Germany doubts suspended HVO producer exists

06/05/25

Germany doubts suspended HVO producer exists

London, 6 May (Argus) — German regulators have said a producer of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) that has been using the country's Nabisy biomass registry may not exist. The federal office of agriculture and food (BLE) said an investigation begun in mid-April found that biofuels sustainability verification scheme ISCC withdrew the suspended user's certification on 8 January, excluding the operator from the scheme for 48 months because of "a lack of co-operation with the ISCC integrity programme". The BLE had suspended Nabisy access for the company, which had the ID EU-BM-13-SSt-10022652. The company was listed on its ISCC certificate as based in the UAE, and provided an address in Hong Kong for its audit, BLE said. Matching details provided by BLE with Argus research show the producer is likely to be EcoSolution, which said it was producing HVO from crude tall oil, used cooking oil (UCO) and spent bleaching earth oil. The company's audit was done by certification body Certi W Baltic on 5 September 2024, according to ISCC documentation. Argus could not locate a biofuels producer by the name of EcoSolution for comment. Argus asked Certi W Baltic and the ISCC for comment but did not receive responses by the time of publication. BLE said it was suspicious that the concerned producer booked all of its proof of sustainability (PoS) onto the Nabisy account of a supplier whose certification records show an address in the Netherlands. But that company's audit report shows the same Hong Kong address as EcoSolution. ISCC certification of the Dutch supplier remains active, but the BLE also has "considerable doubts" about that company's existence. ISCC audit records show AEY Trading received ISCC 'trader with storage' certification on the same day as EcoSolution, also from Certi W Baltic. Certi W's audit summary shows AEY received an on-site audit on 8 September from the same auditor as EcoSolution. Any PoS issued by the suspended producer, which had been temporarily frozen, have been unblocked and will remain valid based on the 'protection of confidence' principle laid out in the German biofuels sustainability ordinance, which protects buyers in the biofuels market. To delete affected PoS that have been sold to others, the BLE would need to prove the buyer was aware of any fraud in relation to the product purchased. In practice this is "almost impossible", according to German biofuels association VDB. "The protection of confidence principle has become a free pass for lack of due diligence and care," the association said. "Today, European biofuels market participants do not have to worry about any consequences if they buy cheap biofuels with dubious origin." VDB wants urgent reform of the corresponding part of legislation, to grant the BLE more power when it comes to revoking fraudulent sustainability paperwork. PoS that has been re-released into the market could comprise a large amount of HVO, possibly in the hundreds of thousands of tons, according to market participants. By Sophie Barthel and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April

05/05/25

Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April

Mexico City, 5 May (Argus) — Activity in Mexico's manufacturing sector shrank for a 13th straight month in April, with declines accelerating in production and new orders, according to a survey of purchasing managers. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 45.5 in April from 46.9 in March, finance executives' association IMEF said, moving further below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. US tariffs imposed since March are adding pressure to Mexico's manufacturing sector, which makes up about a fifth of the national economy. The auto industry, responsible for roughly 18pc of manufacturing GDP, may be the hardest hit by the new measures, including a 25pc tariff on auto parts that took effect 3 May. Mexico remains the top exporter of vehicles to the US, supplying 23pc of all US auto imports in 2024. But IMEF said tariffs compound broader, mostly domestic headwinds, including reduced public spending and investor uncertainty stemming from sweeping legal and regulatory reforms. New investment has stalled since late 2024. The PMI index for new orders fell by 2.5 points to 41.8, the lowest since June 2020. Production dropped by 2.5 points to 43.6, while employment fell by 0.6 point to 46.4. New orders and production have now been in contraction for 14 straight months, and employment for 15. Inventories saw the steepest drop in April, falling 4 points to 46.3 — sliding from expansion to contraction — as manufacturers accelerated shipments after tariff implementation dates were confirmed. IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI — which covers services and commerce — remained in contraction for a fifth consecutive month but edged up by 0.5 points to 49.0 in April. Within that index, new orders rose by 0.6 points to 48.1, employment increased 1.3 points to 48.6 and production held steady at 47.5. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

WEF, GenZero launch Asia-Pacific SAF initiative

05/05/25

WEF, GenZero launch Asia-Pacific SAF initiative

Singapore, 5 May (Argus) — The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Singaporean investment platform GenZero have jointly launched the Green Fuel Forward initiative to encourage demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the Asia-Pacific region. WEF and GenZero — a subsidiary of state-owned investment firm Temasek — announced the launch during the GenZero Climate Summit 2025 in Singapore on 5 May. The initiative aims to scale the region's aviation decarbonisation infrastructure and demand for SAF. It plans to do this through initiatives such as workshops and practical guidance tools to help organisations navigate key topics like environmental integrity, book-and-claim systems, and reporting practices for SAF and SAF certificates. The initiative is expected to bring together airlines, logistics providers, and corporates operating in the region. Organisations including Air New Zealand, Boeing, DHL, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Neste, Qantas, Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSBO) and Singapore Airlines have already agreed to participate. Airlines and organisations based in Asia-Pacific which are interested in procuring SAF and SAF certificates can participate in the initiative, said GenZero. By "mobilising corporates and airlines, we can create the certainty needed to spur innovation, scale production, and make lower-emission flights a reality", said GenZero's chief executive Frederick Teo. Finnish SAF producer Neste said it is "committed to contributing our expertise and resources to help scale SAF demand and production," while Singapore Airlines said it is a "useful platform to unite airlines and corporates in building shared demand". By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s election gives LNG, fuels sector certainty

05/05/25

Australia’s election gives LNG, fuels sector certainty

Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — Australia's governing Labor party's second majority term could mean that changes to the offshore permitting regime promised last year are signed into law, while east coast LNG businesses will avoid a planned reservation system proposed by the opposition. Labor's victory at the 3 May election combined with the election of fewer members from the Greens party and climate-focused independents, could mean it faces less pressure to cancel fossil fuel projects. But it will remain reliant on the Greens to pass laws through the nation's upper house — the senate — meaning Labor may need to negotiate the passage of bills with the leftist party if the Liberal-National-based coalition opposes its measures. The Greens ran on a promise to ban new coal, oil and gas projects but won fewer seats than in 2022 because of preference flows. A federal decision on the lifetime extension of the Woodside Energy-operated 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG delayed by Labor, is now looking more positive for the firm. The firm sees approval as vital to progressing its Browse gas development offshore northwestern Australia. Voters' rejection of the opposition Coalition on the nation's east coast means its policy to reserve a further 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) from the Gladstone-based LNG exporters will not proceed. The result provides an opportunity for certainty and stability for the energy sector, upstream lobby Australian Energy Producers said. The group urged the government to focus on new supply as Australia's gas reserves for domestic use rapidly deplete. The government will need to specify exactly how it aims to secure supplies to ensure stable supply, once coal-fired generators retire at the end of the 2020s and into the 2030s. This is because the nation's integrated system plan is based on Labor's policy of reaching 82pc renewable energy in the power grid, backed up by about 15GW of gas-fired power. Industry will await further direction stemming from the Future Gas Strategy which canvassed solutions to Australia's declining gas supply including new pipelines, storage and seasonal LNG imports. Permitting concerns In the government's previous three-year term, a series of court-ordered requirements to consult with affected Aboriginal groups briefly disrupted multi-billion dollar LNG developments. Labor promised to specify through new laws exactly which groups must be consulted before approvals could be granted. But these were dropped from the agenda in early 2024 following opposition by the Greens. Labor's resources minister Madeleine King blamed the Greens for obstructionist manoeuvres on this legislation, but it remains unclear if and when Labor might introduce such laws. Conversely, the Coalition promised to end government support for anti-gas lobbies such as law group the Environmental Defenders Office — set to continue under Labor. In liquid fuels, Labor's victory should boost Australia's electric vehicle (EV) sales, with emissions standards laws set to remain enforced. The Coalition had said it would soften the laws because of concern over cost of living pressures. Plans to temporarily cut the fuel excise will also not progress. Australia's EV take-up has stalled, and industry has blamed this on poor investment in recharging infrastructure and other policy settings, including the removal of the fringe benefits tax exemption for plug-in hybrid car models. A re-elected Labor government is likely to further policy towards a mandate for sustainable aviation fuel or renewable diesel, given the growing share of Australia's emissions projected to come from the transport industry. It pledged A$250mn ($162mn) for low-carbon liquid fuels development in March , for low-carbon liquid fuels development in March, as part of its commitment to the nascent sector. Local market participants are optimistic that further biofuels support will be provided as urgency to meet net zero ambitions builds, including a 2030 target of 43pc lower emissions based on 2005 levels. About A$6bn/yr of feedstocks like canola, tallow and used cooking oil are exported from Australia, while existing ethanol and biodiesel producers are running underutilised plants, making about 175mn litres/yr at present, because of poorly-enforced blending mandates. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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