Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Emissions
03/12/24

The US Department of Treasury said it still plans to issue guidance before president Joe Biden leaves office next year clarifying how refiners can qualify for a new tax credit for clean fuels.

The agency "anticipates issuing guidance" around the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit before 20 January to "enable producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025", disputing a report today that the Biden administration planned on punting implementation to president-elect Donald Trump. The credit, set to kick off regardless on 1 January, will differ from some prior federal incentives by offering greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.

Treasury did not commit to any definitive timeline for releasing guidance, and it did not immediately clarify how thorough any eventual rule would be.

Companies in the biofuel supply chain say the current lack of clarity from Treasury — particularly on how it will calculate carbon intensities for various fuels and feedstocks — has slowed first quarter dealmaking. Government guidance could make or break the economics of certain plants, particularly for relatively higher-carbon fuels like soy biodiesel or jet fuel derived from corn ethanol.

The US Department of Agriculture's timing for releasing a complementary rule to quantify the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices, envisioned as a way to reward refineries sourcing feedstocks from farms taking steps to reduce their emissions, is unclear. The agency said today that a "rulemaking process" in response to its request for information on climate-smart farm practices is "under consideration" but did not elaborate. Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack had insisted earlier this year that his department would release some package before the end of Biden's term.

Some industry groups remain pessimistic that the Biden administration will answer all of the thorny questions still lingering around the 45Z credit, especially given signals earlier this year that other Inflation Reduction Act programs would take priority. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, says final regulations around 45Z "seem highly unlikely" before the end of Biden's term but that it hopes Treasury releases at least some "basic information" or safe harbor provisions.

Delays getting credit guidance could prod Congress to extend expiring biofuel incentives for another year, including a $1/USG credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel. Some formerly skeptical lobbying groups have recently come on board in support of an extension, fearing that biofuel production could slump next year given the lack of 45Z guidance and uncertainty about how Trump will implement clean energy tax credits.

But four lobbyists speaking on background told Argus today that the proposal still faces long odds. Congress has various other priorities for its relatively brief lame duck session, including government funding and disaster aid, that take precedence over biofuels. A staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee said last month that Republicans have been reluctant to negotiate tax policy in a divided Congress this year when they are planning a far-reaching tax package under unified Republican control next year.

By Cole Martin

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03/12/24

RLG production forecasts fraught with uncertainty

Government backing and co-operation between competitors are needed to align with the targets for RLG output, writes Matt Scotland London, 3 December (Argus) — The production of renewable LPG and dimethyl ether (DME) is projected to rise to 60mn-120mn t/yr by 2050 under a supportive policy scenario, consultants told attendees of this year's LPG Week conference in Cape Town, South Africa, over 18-22 November. But such forecasts continue to be laced with uncertainty given the enormous challenges involved in reaching commercial-scale output. Output of both fuels, often pooled together under the umbrella term renewable liquid gas (RLG), could grow to 4mn-9mn t/yr by 2030 and 8mn-27mn t/yr by 2040 under the same scenario, according to the findings from a soon-to-be-released report from consultancies NNFCC and Frazer-Nash. But under a situation where no policy support is forthcoming, volumes are about a quarter of these projections, NNFCC managing director Adrian Higson told the audience. RLG production could then exceed 100mn t/yr by 2050-55 and 200mn t/yr by 2060-65, Frazer-Nash consultant Jeremy Revell said, adding the caveat that greater uncertainty exists over a long timeframe. Biogas to LPG "offers the best potential route to renewable LPG beyond 2050", while gasification to DME does likewise for rDME. "One of the main surprises was just how much liquid gas we could produce by 2050, especially the role rDME could play from the gasification pathway," Revell said. "It has high potential yields and a lot of feedstock to support it." Speakers at the event were keen to emphasise the high level of uncertainty involved in RLG development, and just how much rests on the degree of government backing when it comes to projecting growth. And even assuming a supportive policy scenario does not necessarily equate to clear-cut support for RLG, bearing in mind it will be competing with other technologies, BioLPG LLC chairman Kimball Chen told delegates. "I don't know yet what supportive policies we want and for which solutions," he said. More co-operation between competitors in the LPG industry is needed to ease uncertainty, while allowing for competition between individual firms or partnerships, Chen said. "SHV and DCC [through their recently announced RLG collaboration] and my consortium [bioLPG LLC] with 12 European and American companies share the same technical challenges and will be competing for the same feedstocks, so the way we think about competition and increasing our chances for success as an industry and individually need to be further delineated," he said. Cost calculation Feedstock availability in many of the study's pathways is not a concern, with the possible exception of bioLPG from hydrotreated vegetable oil and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, something not unexpected, DCC's director of sustainable gas, Emmanuel Mannooretonil, said. The issue is having feedstock at the right price. "Now we see that technically it's possible and the feedstock exists, the next question is can we make a product good enough from an environmental and affordability standpoint for policy makers to support?" he said. The maturity of the technology is a challenge for the LPG industry, with "decisions of large financial magnitudes" required to get there, Chen added. "We have a race against time." Cost will remain a problem over the medium and long term because of the technological limits, Chen said. But perhaps the biggest challenge is the reluctance to build a first-of-a-kind plant, SHV Energy's head of sustainable fuels policy, Goher Ur Rehman Mir, said. SHV is testing a number of production routes for RLG, including converting ethanol to butane. But pilot plants and then demonstration facilities are required first, necessitating more investment and collaboration, he said. "We need to join forces, which is why we have signed [an initial agreement] with DCC Energy," he said. "But we are open to collaborating with other stakeholders to develop a consortium to progress this process fraught with difficulties." Production pathways Source Product Alcohol Renewable LPG Biogas Renewable LPG CO2 and H2 Renewable LPG and DME Gasififcation with Fischer-Tropsch Renewable LPG Gasification Renewable DME HVO and Hefa Renewable LPG Pyrolosis Renewable LPG — NNFCC, Frazer-Nash Renewable LPG, DME output forecast averages* Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Africa attempts to surmount clean cooking obstacles

03/12/24

Africa attempts to surmount clean cooking obstacles

Financial backing and carbon credits could be vital for making LPG more affordable as a clean cooking fuel, writes Elaine Mills Cape Town, 3 December (Argus) — Sub-Saharan Africa still has many of the same intractable challenges to overcome if it is to come close to achieving universal clean cooking access, delegates heard at LPG Week in Cape Town, South Africa. But government support, public-private collaboration, grassroots movements and carbon credits could pry open markets. The IEA is spearheading momentum behind the drive to clean cooking adoption in sub-Saharan Africa, expecting 45pc of the transition to be to LPG. A global transition would result in a net reduction of 1.5bn t of CO2 equivalent by 2030, of which sub-Saharan Africa alone would account for 900mn t, it says. "We can't imagine a more important global initiative in terms of our objectives of development, poverty alleviation, health and prosperity," the IEA's head of sustainable transitions, Daniel Wetzel, said during the World Liquid Gas Association event. Sub-Saharan Africa consumes less than 4kg/capita of LPG per year, according to South Africa's Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. This compares with north Africa's 35kg/yr, including Morocco, which has the highest in the world at 73kg/yr, Argus Consulting data show. The IEA estimates Africa requires investment of $4bn/yr to facilitate clean cooking. The continuing challenge for LPG penetration in southern Africa is "affordability, availability and acceptability", the International Finance Corporation's (IFC's) regional industry manager for manufacturing, Bambo Kunle-Salami, said. An average household needs to spend about $300-400/yr on LPG, while GDP per capita is just over $1,000/yr, he said. Government backing is essential, as "no LPG has grown on its own organically or reached desired levels [without] government intervention", the UN-backed Global LPG Partnership's East Africa director, Elizabeth Muchiri, said. Subsidies can solve cost barriers but many African governments cannot afford them, Kunle-Salami said. It might also encourage cross-border smuggling, so if used they must be targeted to low-income homes with a clear end goal, he said. Some countries have struggled to scale back their LPG subsidies, Wetzel said. But the IEA expects LPG prices to drop sharply later this decade as global demand peaks, allowing markets to reduce subsidies and emerging markets to expand. Kenya has distributed subsidised cylinders to low-income homes, scrapped LPG taxes and introduced mandates on new homes to include LPG infrastructure, Muchiri said. Some banks and retailers have offered microfinancing and pay-as-you-go smart meters on cylinders, she said. Ghana has also provided free cylinders and stoves to those most in need, its National Petroleum Authority director Akua Kwakye said. A cylinder recirculation model was introduced so consumers do not own the cylinders, which improves safety and reduces costs, she said. Logistics and their cost impact are a significant problem in Africa, Kunle-Salami said. "In a healthy market [logistics costs] should be 10-20pc, but in many African countries it is as high as 40-50pc," he said. A lack of storage infrastructure to protect from supply shocks is another issue. This requires significant investment that needs private-public collaboration, Wetzel said. But centralised solutions can only go so far — only grassroots initiatives create trust and acceptance, he added. Credits where they're due The IEA thinks carbon credits have huge potential in making LPG more affordable as a clean cooking fuel owing to the emissions savings and certainty of the verification. Such schemes might yield higher-quality credits than many other carbon-offsetting projects, Wetzel said. Many of the firms IFC finances struggle to understand, let alone access, the carbon market, Kunle-Salami said. But agreements on Article 6 at the UN's Cop 29 climate summit on establishing a global carbon market, and inclusion of clean cooking at the G7 and G20 summits, provide more hope such credits can become important, delegates heard. Nigeria LPG residential demand. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Mato Grosso ups 2024-25 corn outlook

02/12/24

Brazil's Mato Grosso ups 2024-25 corn outlook

Sao Paulo, 2 December (Argus) — Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state increased its outlook for the 2024-25 winter corn crop, based on higher projected acreage. The state now expects to produce 45.8mn metric tonnes (t) of corn this season, up from 45.5mn t in November's outlook, according to Mato Grosso's agricultural economics institute Imea. That is less than the 47.2mn t produced in the 2023-24 crop. The estimate for planted area advanced to 6.83mn hectares (ha) from 6.79mn ha. That is almost 0.6pc above the 2023-24 area. The upwards revision follows recent increase of corn prices in the state, allowing for more farmers to cover production costs. Yields are estimated at 111.7 60kg bags/ha, roughly stable from November and a 3.4pc drop from 115.6 bags/ha in the 2023-24 cycle. That is a preliminary forecast based on the average from the three prior seasons, as sowing is only set to begin in January 2025. A slight change this month follows the area readjustment that alters the average for each region and their share to the state result. Cotton Unfavorable weather conditions that delayed soybean sowing dropped the state's 2024-25 cotton output to 2.7mn t, a 1.8pc drop from November's outlook. The delay in soybean sowing can extend harvest periods and hamper cotton sowing within the ideal window. Still, volumes are up by 2.4pc from the 2023-24 cycle. The year-on-year increase is still driven by cotton's higher profitability than in the previous season, which encourages farmer investments. Total sowed area is expected at 1.5mn ha, a 1.8pc decrease from November's estimate but up by 5pc from the 2023-24 season. Yields remain projected at 284.3 15kg bags/ha, based on a three-year average, since the factors that define crop yields are yet unknown, such as climate conditions and the ideal planting window period. That is 2.6pc below 2023-24 levels. Soybeans Mato Grosso continues set to produce 44mn t of soybeans in the 2024-25 season, unchanged from November's estimate. That is a near 13pc hike from the 39.1mn t in the 2023-24 crop. The 2024-25 yields remain projected at almost 58 60kg bags/ha. But it is still too early in the cycle to make more certain projections, as sowing finished last week. The prior season yielded 52.2 bags/ha. The outlook for planted area is also stable at 12.7mn ha, 1.5pc above the 2023-24 season. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil eyes Cbios, CGOBs integration

02/12/24

Brazil eyes Cbios, CGOBs integration

Sao Paulo, 2 December (Argus) — Brazil is considering integrating its biomethane certificate of guarantee of origin (CGOB) to Cbio decarbonization credits, as biomethane plants will be eligible to generate both. The fuel of the future bill's approval established a mandatory biomethane blend into natural gas pipelines, which can be fulfilled either with the physical molecule or by buying the newly proposed CGOBs. As a result, natural gas producers and importers will have to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1pc in 2026 through the mandate that starts at 1pc and may increase to up to 10pc in subsequent years. Oil and gas regulator ANP is now leading regulatory discussions on the law. As biomethane producers are eligible to issue Cbios once authorized under the biofuels carbon credit Renovabio program — also mandatory in Brazil but aimed at motor fuel distributors — there are discussions on how to prevent double counting. Brazilian biogas producers association Abiogas points out that Cbios and CGOBs represent different concepts: the first acts as a carbon credit, while the latter is a guarantee of origin, so there is no risk of double counting. Additionally, Cbios are not used in companies' GHG emissions reports. "This would not be any different from what happens in the US," Abiogas' president Renata Isfer said. "The low-carbon fuel standard, which is similar to Cbios, is not counted in the inventories, while the US Renewable Fuel Standard, like the CGOB, is." Abiogas said there could be transparency to consumers, so they can opt to buy CGOBs from plants that do not issue Cbios if that concerns them. Critics worry this can lead to double counting and less international acceptability. The market is also debating whether this certificate will need to be retired to satisfy mandatory buying, as is the case with Cbios, or if buyers will be able to resell CGOBs after purchasing them. Participants again worry this might lead to double counting, as producers and importers would be reselling a credit that has been accounted for in the voluntary market. "Motor fuels distributors will want to do the same with Cbios," a market participant said. ANP will also have to define biomethane volumes necessary for the target, determine which gas producers and importers are big enough to be a part of the compulsory market and specify how much biomethane a CGOB will represent. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ukraine agri-exports decline on the month

02/12/24

Ukraine agri-exports decline on the month

Kyiv, 2 December (Argus) — Agricultural exports from Ukraine fell in November as an increase in shipments of corn and sunflower oil (SFO) failed to offset lower exports of wheat, barley, soybeans and rapeseed, customs data show. Ukraine exported about 5.48mn t of grains, oilseeds and by-products in November, down from 6.01mn t in October but slightly up from 5.46mn t in November 2023. Exports by all transports fell in November. But in relative terms, shipments from the deep-sea ports of Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) continued to increase, reaching around 82pc of Ukraine's total agricultural exports. This is up from 80pc in October and only 50pc in November 2023. Agricultural exports from Danube river ports fell to 362,740t in November, from 495,225t shipped in October and 1.54mn t in November 2023. The share of products exported from Danube ports has declined to 7pc, down from 8pc in October and 28pc in November 2023. Grains Ukraine shipped 3.86mn t of grains in November, down from 3.92mn t in October, but up from 3.64mn t in November 2023 (see chart). Corn exports continued to rise, to 2.6mn t in the reporting month from 1.93mn t in October and 2.33mn t a year earlier. Turkey remained the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn in November, followed by Spain, Italy and Egypt, according to customs export declarations. In contrast, wheat exports fell to 1.11mn t from 1.65mn t in October and 1.13mn t a year earlier. Spain remained the largest buyer, while Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Tunisia made up the top five. Barley exports declined to 157,382t last month, down from 350,055t in October and 181,368t a year earlier. Libya was the main buyer, followed by Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates. Oilseeds Ukraine exported 1.62mn t of oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals in November, down from 2.09mn t in October and 1.82mn t a year earlier. Soybean exports fell sharply to 415,284t, from 715,697t in October and 505,832t in November last year (see chart). Pakistan was the largest buyer of Ukrainian soybeans, followed by Egypt, the Netherlands and Turkey. Ukraine's rapeseed exports fell to 290,583t last month from 475,214t in October and 349,495t a year earlier. This brought Ukraine's total rapeseed exports to about 2.7mn t since the start of the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June). Exports of sunflower seed (SFS) amounted to only 1,242t in November, down sharply from 16,276t in October and 38,584t a year earlier. Exports of sunflower meal (SFM) decreased to 356,553t in the reporting month, down from 383,643t in the previous month, and from 387,397t a year earlier. China was the largest buyer of Ukrainian SFM, followed by France, Poland and Egypt. In contrast, sunflower oil (SFO) exports rose to 508,650t, from 458,260t in October and 506,218t a year earlier. India was the main destination for Ukrainian SFO in October. Spain, Italy, Iraq and Romania made up the top five. By Alexey Yeromin Ukraine grain exports mn t Ukraine oilseed, vegoil and meal exports t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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