Omani state-owned hydrogen company Hydrom expects to target new markets when it launches its third auction round of green hydrogen blocks by the end of the first quarter 2025. Hydrom has so far awarded eight blocks following the first and second round of auctions in 2022 and 2023. Hydrom's managing director Abdulaziz al-Shidhani spoke to Argus at an investor day event in Muscat about the target markets, auction expectations and outlook for hydrogen markets in the near term.
Could you give us an update on the progress of the eight concessions that were awarded? Can we expect any offtake agreement soon?
We expect the first final investment decisions (FID) to be taken in 2026. In the meantime, developers have been allowed to carry out key activities, such as feasibility studies, pre-FEED, FEED and other measurement campaigns on the awarded blocks. These studies will provide insights into the discussion of the real cost of Omani hydrogen produced. But in parallel, developers are also actively engaging in discussions to secure offtake agreements including our inaugural gH2 Investors Day, a 1:1 matchmaking platform that was made available for both producers and offtakers to enter for further discussions. While it is unlikely any offtake will be finalised at this stage, progress on these activities is proceeding as planned.
Could you give us colour on the region or size of the block that would be on auction for March next year?
The specific regions for the blocks will not be determined until our market sounding activities are completed. But, the auction will remain open to all interested participants, as we have done in our previous rounds. That said, we are strategically targeting certain economies that had limited participation in earlier rounds, such as China, Latin America, North America and parts of Europe, and potentially Singapore. Some of these markets either lacked sufficient time to participate or have since adjusted their strategies and shown willingness to engage.
The market sounding process, which will kick-start in early 2025, will allow us to reach out to these economies and other potential players. Through this engagement with them, we aim to better understand their interest and expected level of participation. We are also exploring tweaks to our existing auction model to accommodate new entrants. Additionally, we may consider offering smaller block sizes to capture niche opportunities in markets that do not require fill-scale.
Is higher production costs of hydrogen a concern for Hydrom at all?
We are super focused on what we have control on. If there is hydrogen to be produced, Oman will be producing it. While we do not have direct control over global market conditions, incentives, or penalties driving low-carbon transitions, we are confident in Oman's competitive positioning. To confirm and reiterate my point, if there are green hydrogen molecules to be produced cost-effectively, they will come from Oman.
There are concerns around a global slowdown in hydrogen, with companies walking away from green hydrogen projects, what are your thoughts on this?
We closely monitor global hydrogen market developments and remain informed through regular market reports. We are surely plugged in! While there have been challenges, such as supply chain constraints two years ago, those issues have largely been resolved as manufacturers expand capacity. This increased capacity is expected to drive price corrections, which will help us to make informed decisions, which will support more informed decision-making.
On the positive side, several FIDs have been taken recently in Europe and India, signalling continued momentum in the market. In our case and based on our experience with the previous auction rounds, including participation from big industry names, we have not seen any serious discussions or indications of a slowdown. While there are always discussions about whether to wait or proceed, the industry in Oman is still going ahead with its plans.
What is the outlook for hydrogen markets over the next 5-10 years?
It is a positive outlook, though the market will take some time to stabilise. We remain optimistic, and this is why we are continuing to move ahead with our plans. Whatever we saw in the past few months were some hurdles, which are typical of an emerging industry and do not detract from our long-term potential of hydrogen markets. The outlook is positive.