Argentina touts quarterly economic growth

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
17/12/24

Argentina's macroeconomic conditions continue to stabilize, with growth picking up and inflation trending down.

The economy expanded by 3.9pc in the third quarter of the year compared to the previous three months, according to preliminary data from the statistics agency (Indec). It was the first quarter-on-quarter growth since President Javier Milei took office a year ago during a deep recession with a promise to overhaul the long-struggling economy.

The economy contracted by 1.9pc in the fourth quarter of 2023, by 2.1pc in the first quarter of 2024 and by 1.7pc in the second quarter.

While the economy is still down by 2.1pc compared to a year earlier, the government presented the data, together with falling inflation, as evidence that Milei's strategy to deregulate and shrink the state is working.

Inflation in November was 2.4pc, a huge decline from the 25pc when Milei took office in December 2023. Accumulated inflation through November was 112pc.

According to Indec, private consumption was up by 4.6pc from quarter to quarter and investment by 12pc. The country has had a fiscal surplus for nine months. The currency has stabilized after a brutal devaluation early in 2024 of more than 50pc.

Exports grew by 3.2pc from the second quarter and are the most positive economic indicator so far this year. Exports in the first three quarters of 2024 were up by 20pc compared to a year earlier.

The energy sector in the GDP calculation increased by only 0.4pc in third quarter, but it plays an important role in the trade balance. The country will have a trade surplus this year close $20bn compared with a $6.9bn deficit in 2023, according to the central bank.

Argentina registered its first energy surplus in 15 years in the first half of 2024, exporting $4.81bn and importing $3.79bn. Crude exports were up by 60pc compared to 2023.

Oil and gas trade organization Ceph forecasts an energy surplus of $25bn by 2030, based on projections of crude output of 1.5mn b/d and natural gas at 230mn m³/d.

The government has reduced from 18 to eight the number of cabinet ministries and eliminated hundreds of regulations. Deregulation and transformation minister Federico Sturzeneggar announced in early December that approximately 4,500 regulations would be eliminated in 2025.

But the austerity measures have caused a spike in poverty, with more than 50pc of the population living below the poverty line, up from 41.7pc in December 2023.

By Lucien Chauvin

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13/05/25

Trump offers to make a deal with Iran

Washington, 13 May (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today appealed to Iran's leaders to accept his offer of "peaceful engagement" and economic cooperation by giving up its nuclear program. "I want to make a deal with Iran," Trump said. "If I can make a deal with Iran, I'll be very happy. We're going to make your region and the world a safer place." The White House cast Trump's speech at a US-Saudi business forum in Riyadh as "a major foreign policy address outlining an optimistic vision for the future of the Middle East". Trump appears to be limiting his demands on Iran, calling for a halt to its nuclear program in exchange for US sanctions relief — a negotiating posture that he once disparaged. "We want [Iran] to be a wonderful, safe, great country, but they cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump said today. "This is an offer that will not last forever. "If Iran's leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive, maximum pressure and drive Iranian oil exports to zero like I did before," Trump said. Trump upon returning to office has ratcheted up enforcement of oil sanctions against Iran, by also targeting independent refiners in China that for years have relied on discounted Iranian crude. In the latest action, the US Treasury Department today announced sanctions against China-based trader Qingdao Fushen and against Hong Kong- and Singapore-based companies allegedly engaged in concealing the origin of Iranian oil sold in China. Trump during his first term set a goal of reducing Iranian oil exports to zero. But Iran since 2019 has developed a sophisticated network of intermediaries and "shadow fleet" vessels, enabling it to continue exporting crude to buyers in China. Recent US sanctions measures have added costs along that supply chain, but China still imported close to 1.5mn b/d of Iranian crude in April. Availability of oil storage in Shandong, China, is the only factor limiting imports this month. Many buyers in China built up Iranian crude stocks earlier this year. In a major change from his first administration, Trump has authorized diplomatic negotiations with Tehran that both countries say have made progress. Trump since returning to the White House has barred his former Iran advisers from serving in his administration. And his top negotiator with Iran, former real estate developer Steve Witkoff, appears to have discarded the previous Trump administration's approach of adding other complex issues to nuclear talks, such as Iran's missile and drone capabilities or its network of regional proxies, although secretary of state Marco Rubio has suggested that all those issues should be addressed. A narrow focus on Tehran's nuclear program and an offer of sanctions relief is quite similar to former president Barack Obama's approach to Tehran, which resulted in a nuclear agreement that Trump once blasted as "the worst deal in history". Whether deliberately or not, Trump's speech today stood out as the antithesis to Obama's 2009 address in Cairo, where the former US president called for a reset of relations between the US and the Middle East. Unlike Obama, who 16 years ago called on the region to fulfil democratic aspirations as the best way to remedy economic failings, Trump in his remarks today praised the region's autocratic leaders for their economic development skills and said that the US under his leadership would be minimally involved in the region's political future. "The gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called nation-builders, neo-cons, or liberal non-profits like those who spent trillions failing to develop Kabul and Baghdad," Trump said. "The so-called 'nation-builders' wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies they did not understand." Iran, too, can build infrastructure projects like its Arab neighbors if it gives up "stealing people's wealth to fund terror and bloodshed abroad", Trump said. "Yet I'm here today not merely to condemn the past chaos of Iran's leaders, but to offer them a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future," he said. Trump cited his short-lived campaign of bombing against Yemen's Houthis as an example of the limited US involvement in the Middle East he will try to practice as president. "My preference will always be for peace and partnership, whenever those outcomes can be achieved," he said. Trump on 6 May declared an end to his bombing campaign in Yemen that began on 15 March, leaving key questions unanswered, such as whether his ceasefire with the Houthis will fully reopen Red Sea waterways to international shipping. But in Trump's words, his campaign in Yemen was a complete victory. "We hit them hard, we got what we came for and then we got out," he said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to lift sanctions on Syria: Update

13/05/25

US to lift sanctions on Syria: Update

Adds that US, Syrian presidents will meet on Wednesday Washington, 13 May (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today he will lift all US sanctions on Syria, a move that will allow the new government in Damascus to access global oil markets and banking systems and to advance energy projects. "I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness," Trump said in Riyadh, while addressing a US-Saudi business forum. Trump said he was ordering the sanctions relief at the urging of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. US secretary of state Marco Rubio will meet his Syrian counterpart in Turkey later this week, Trump said. Trump will have a brief meeting with Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Riyadh on Wednesday, the White House said. Former president Joe Biden's administration in January issued a sanctions waiver through 7 July to enable previously prohibited energy trade with Syria. The EU in February suspended a range of sanctions against Syria, including restrictions related to the energy, banking, transport and reconstruction sectors. A permanent relief of US sanctions would require Trump to remove Syria's previous designation as a "state sponsor of terrorism". Al-Sharaa's group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is separately classified by the US as a "foreign terrorist organization". The US also has imposed a series of sanctions against Syria by statute, rather than executive action, which Trump would have to waive. Before Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's fall from power in December, the country relied heavily on Iran for crude and product supplies. Syria issued its first tenders to buy crude and refined products in January, but it attracted limited interest. The country then received cargoes of Russian crude and diesel in March-April, including some cargoes delivered aboard tankers that are under US sanctions. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria loads first cargo of new Obodo crude

13/05/25

Nigeria loads first cargo of new Obodo crude

London, 13 May (Argus) — The first cargo of Nigeria's new medium sweet crude, Obodo, has loaded and could be headed for Germany, according to sources. The Suezmax Atlanta Spirit loaded on 25 April from the floating production, storage and offloading vessel Tamara Tokoni , according to tracking data from Kpler. Nigerian energy firm Oando, which marketed the shipment, has sold it to an undisclosed buyer, according to traders. A source at Nigeria's state-owned NNPC said the cargo could be headed for the North Sea port of Wilhelmshaven, but this was unconfirmed. Obodo has a gravity of 27.65°API and a very low sulphur content of 0.05pc, according to an assay seen by Argus . Details on Obodo's production levels are not immediately available. Nigerian independent Continental Oil and Gas is producing Obodo at onshore oil block OML 150 in the Niger delta. NNPC restarted production of similar-quality Utapate in 2024 and launched Nembe a year earlier. Obodo could find favour with European refineries, as Nigerian medium sweet grades — including Forcados, Escravos and Bonga — have gone predominantly to Europe, the largest market for the country's crude. By Sanjana Shivdas and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to lift sanctions on Syria

13/05/25

US to lift sanctions on Syria

Washington, 13 May (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today he will lift all US sanctions on Syria, a move that will allow the new government in Damascus to access global oil markets and banking systems and to advance energy projects. "I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness," Trump said in Riyadh, while addressing a US-Saudi business forum. Trump said he was ordering the sanctions relief at the urging of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. US secretary of state Marco Rubio will meet his Syrian counterpart in Turkey later this week, Trump said. The White House did not confirm whether Trump plans to meet with Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, during his visit to the Mideast Gulf this week. Former president Joe Biden's administration in January issued a sanctions waiver through 7 July to enable previously prohibited energy trade with Syria. The EU in February suspended a range of sanctions against Syria, including restrictions related to the energy, banking, transport and reconstruction sectors. A permanent relief of US sanctions would require Trump to remove Syria's previous designation as a "state sponsor of terrorism". Al-Sharaa's group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is separately classified by the US as a "foreign terrorist organization". The US also has imposed a series of sanctions against Syria by statute, rather than executive action, which Trump would have to waive. Before Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's fall from power in December, the country relied heavily on Iran for crude and product supplies. Syria issued its first tenders to buy crude and refined products in January, but it attracted limited interest. The country then received cargoes of Russian crude and diesel in March-April, including some cargoes delivered aboard tankers that are under US sanctions. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK TRA proposes 40pc cap on other countries' HDG

13/05/25

UK TRA proposes 40pc cap on other countries' HDG

London, 13 May (Argus) — The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) has recommended the imposition of a 40pc cap on the other countries' quotas for hot-dip galvanised (HDG) and plate in its statement of final determination published today. It proposes that the caps come into effect on 1 October to enable material already on the water to clear and avoid supply restrictions. "This would address the concern about crowding out, whilst maintaining a similar volume of imports to come from existing supply countries," the TRA said. The other countries' quota for HDG is 88,075t for July-September, meaning anyone selling into it — the quota is dominated by Vietnam and South Korea — has access to 35,230t before duties become payable. The TRA said there should be no cap on organic coated material, despite requests to the contrary from UK Steel. Going forward, Turkey will not be in scope of the safeguard on HDG as its share during the investigation period was just 0.1pc. The TRA said unused quota should no longer be rolled forward to the next quota, and that countries with their own individual quota should have no access to the residual other countries' quota in the final quarter of the quota year, April-June. These two changes are largely in line with those made by the EU in its recent safeguard review. Vietnam will also come into the residual quota for hot-rolled coil, which is 24,295t/quarter, as its volumes have exceeded the 3pc limit specified by the WTO for developing economy status, reaching 4.3pc in the TRA's investigation period. Vietnam had been a favoured origin for traders and buyers, given its previous exemption from the measures. Egypt remains exempt and will likely be subject to increased interest going forward. Some large buyers have been visiting the country in recent months to establish supply lines. The TRA's recommendation "falls short of what is required, given the scale of the challenge the UK industry is faced with", UK Steel said. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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