The new team of EU commissioners will enter 2025 bent on reversing the bloc's economic stagnation and the flight of industry to cheaper parts of the globe, which have been salient themes in 2024. Hydrogen industry participants will keenly monitor Brussels' choice of interventions, which promise to restart the sector's engine, but must avoid undermining faith in rules.
Pledges from re-elected president Ursula von der Leyen to tackle overcomplexity and "structurally high energy prices" both concern hydrogen, and her notion of a pivotal moment for the EU rings true for the hydrogen market because of its connection to industry and because stubborn costs and underwhelming growth in 2024 undermined confidence.
Frequent vows for urgency, simplicity and speed have worn thin, and the European Commission's latest reformist push could flatter to deceive. But multiple warning shots fired last year — including from the European Court of Auditors and respected former Italian prime minister and president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi — pile on pressure to tweak hydrogen policy in 2025. The auditors' report urged a "reality check" and strategy review, cautioning Europe could spectacularly miss its targets, while Draghi stressed cost-efficient decarbonisation to protect European industry — a view shared by member states and energy-intensive companies. Von der Leyen's "Clean Industrial Deal", promised inside 100 days of her new term, could set the tone. But some, like chemicals firm BASF, have already voted with their feet by relocating jobs outside Europe.
For hydrogen, the commission's easiest reform might be setting realistic 2030 targets to replace the 20mn t/yr renewable hydrogen supply, since industry deems it impossible and the commission's own notes predict a 3mn-6mn t/yr market. But this is hardly the most pressing change and would not help morale.
A more radical move would be to somehow relax the renewable hydrogen definition, which many market participants consider overly burdensome. The bloc's biggest economy, Germany, put its weight behind changes in September, saying "reality has now shown these requirements were still too high". Berlin's volte-face could hand Brussels an easier climb down. But reopening that can of worms would dent the investment climate and distract from the low carbon hydrogen rules coming in 2025. All this makes radical change risky, but postponing certain aspects might be slightly more palatable.
Brussels must also decide to maintain or soften its 2030 mandates for renewable hydrogen. Several countries and companies want openness to hydrogen from other low-carbon production pathways, which are backed in the US, Canada, the UK and others. Some have more fundamentally urged freedom to find the cheapest route towards cutting CO2. The first interpretation of the industry mandates from the Netherlands highlights the difficulty balancing mandates with fair competition versus competitors inside and outside the bloc.
But loosening rules would frustrate first movers that took pains to comply. Moreover, some firms champion the EU's forte of creating demand via rules over subsidies that cannot last forever nor compete with the US. "Don't blink, because people will invest money against 2030 mandates," Spanish integrated Moeve's director and chief executive Maarten Wetselaar urged Brussels recently.
EU policymakers accept they must cut hydrogen costs and are weighing options with member states. "The market has changed, and we are probably more technology neutral and more colour friendly than we used to be... this is realism," commission deputy director general for energy Mechthild Worsdorfer said in November. But Worsdorfer opposed "changing anything right now" after the "intense" debates to settle definitions. Commission and members will "find the right balance", Worsdorfer said, but hydrogen participants need clarity sooner rather than later.
