Cash prices of high-octane gasoline blending components in the US Gulf coast are likely to rise in 2025 after a year of declines as lower refining capacity starts to thin stocks.
Alkylate and reformate cash prices and differentials have been lower over the course of 2024, in part from weaker refining margins. The lower margins are reflected in the region's crack spreads, which narrowed to $12.94/USG on 19 December from $18.67/USG a year earlier, as abundant supply in the region met weak demand.
Inventories in the region have also been lower over the course of the year. Stocks in the region fell in November by 2pc from a year earlier to an average 29.75mn bl.
US Gulf coast crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook, brought on by lower overall product demand, especially for gasoline. But the EIA expects spreads to hold steady next year, even with a decrease in refining capacity, potentially supporting prices for high-octane components.
The upcoming year will also bring a significant refinery closure to the region, which should reduce production and raise cash prices of components such as alkylate and reformate. LyondellBasell's closure of its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery is scheduled to start in January. The refinery's fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC), which converts vacuum gasoil primarily into gasoline blendstocks, is expected to be shut in February, followed by a complete end to crude refining by the end of the first quarter.
US total refining capacity should fall to 17.9mn b/d by the end of 2025, according to the EIA, 400,000 b/d less than at the end of 2024, with the lower production leading to price increases.
Although the LyondellBasell closing should eventually give crack spreads in the region a boost, some in the industry do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels of refining margins in the immediate future. CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp said in November the company needed "to see additional refining capacity rationalization in both the US and globally" for crack spreads to gain ground.
An increase in consumer demand for gasoline would also support a rise in cash prices and differentials for high-octane components. But the EIA in December forecast consumption nationwide would rise in 2025 by only 10,000 b/d, or 0.1pc, to 8.95mn b/d.
By Jason Metko