Viewpoint: US jet fuel demand to trail passenger growth

Spanish Market: Oil products
26/12/24

The upward trajectory of US jet fuel demand is likely to continue lagging the pace of rising passenger numbers because of recent capacity gains for multiple US airlines and the slow but steady improvement of aircraft fuel efficiency.

More than 2.35mn travelers were screened weekly at US airports this year through the end of November, according to the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) — a 6.2pc increase from the same 11-month period in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic curtailed domestic and international flights. Passenger screenings have exceeded 2019 levels consistently since the summer of 2023.

Yet US jet fuel products supplied — a proxy for demand — remains stubbornly below pre-Covid-19 levels, despite the rise in traffic. Weekly jet fuel products supplied this year through 13 December was 1.66mn b/d, down by 6.5pc from daily demand in full-year 2019, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

This slower recovery in jet demand relative to rising passenger numbers may be driven by several factors, including airlines carrying more passengers than in the past, as well as steady improvements in aircraft fuel efficiency.

More seats, more flyers

Many US airlines have increased flying capacity, as measured by available seat miles (ASMs), since pre-pandemic levels, while load factor — the percentage of seats filled by passengers — has been stable to lower compared with 2019.

United Airlines' 2024 third quarter ASMs were up by 14pc at 81.54bn compared with the same three months in 2019. United's load factor was down by 0.8 percentage points to 85.3pc in the same period.

Rival US carriers American Airlines and Southwest Airlines similarly posted capacity increases of 14pc and 15pc, respectively, compared with the third quarter of 2019. American's load factor was unchanged at 86.6pc, while Southwest saw a decline of 2.3pc to 81.2pc.

Airlines have also made fuel efficiency improvements in recent years. This is in part from the retirement of many older airplane models during the lean years of the pandemic, combined with delivery of newer, more efficient models in more recent years.

Southwest Airlines' third quarter fuel efficiency improved by 1.5pc year-over-year, the company said in October. Southwest improved its fuel efficiency with the delivery of nine Boeing MAX 8 aircraft in the third quarter while retiring 15 older planes. The MAX 8's and MAX 9s have average fuel efficiencies of 96 and 101 seat miles per USG (sm/USG), respectively. That would make them 23pc and 30pc more efficient than older planes they may have replaced, such as the Boeing 737-800, with a 78 sm/USG.

Other airlines are also refreshing their fleets with newer, more fuel-efficient planes. American Airline's mainline fleet at the end of the third quarter grew by 2.2pc from a year earlier to 971 aircraft. It took in 600 new aircraft from 2013 to 2023, including 31 new planes in 2023. United Airline's third-quarter fleet was similarly 3.4pc larger than a year earlier.

But there are limits to this growing efficiency. Globally the average age of airline fleets has risen to 14.8 years, according data from the International Air Transport Association (Iata) — up from 13.6 years in 1990-2024. This is due largely to the steep dropoff in new plane deliveries as aircraft manufacturers struggled with supply chain issues and high costs from the pandemic.

Boeing, a chief provider of planes for many US airlines, had a spate of production disruptions in 2024, including a multi-week strike this past fall, that slowed the delivery of newer aircraft.

But even a trickle of newer models would gradually affect fuel efficiency, potentially continuing to hold gains in fuel consumption below the rate of passenger growth.

By Jared Ainsworth

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