Viewpoint: Zinc prices to drop in 2025 on higher supply

Spanish Market: Metals
30/12/24

Zinc prices increased this year as supply was tight, but prices are expected to soften next year because of improved supply and continued weak demand in key consumption markets.

Zinc has been one of the best performers of the London Metal Exchange base metals this year, trading above $3,000/t going into December compared with a $2,537/t average in January. This puts this year's average price 6pc higher than the 2023 average. The price strength seen this year can be attributed to supply pressures, including production disruptions at key mines. Global mining group Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia halted operations in March owing to extreme rainfall, and Chinese mining company MMG's Dugald River mine in China was placed under care and maintenance during the third quarter.

The zinc market had a 164,000t deficit in 2024, according to forecasts from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), additionally driven by reduced mined output from Swedish metals producer Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland, and Portuguese mining company Almina's Aljustrel mines in Portugal.

Higher supply forecast

Supply is expected to increase in 2025, with ILZSG forecasting a surplus of 148,000t for the year, as new mine supply is scheduled to ramp up. One of the biggest supply-side developments is the reopening of Canadian mining firm Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kipushi is expected to produce 278,000 t/yr of zinc over its first five years, and will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally, according to Ivanhoe.

In Europe, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Portugal, and the reopening of the Tara operations in Ireland, will contribute to the overall increase in supply, according to ILZSG. Russia's production is also expected to rise, supported by the recently opened Ozerneoye plant. Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands and Norway will also all see concentrate supply increases next year, particularly in the first quarter, with an expansion at Boliden's Odda smelter due to ramp up output early in the new year.

Global mined supply has declined over the past three years, but trading firm Macquarie expects global mine supply to grow by 5.8pc in 2025. Total project approvals this year reached around 570,000 t/yr of zinc, Macquarie said in its 2025 global commodity outlook, published on 5 December.

Persistent weak demand

But demand growth may be insufficient to absorb this additional output, leading to oversupply in the coming years. Global carbon steel demand has fallen this year, as construction sector demand has generally been weak across most major economies, including China. Construction steel accounts for 55pc of zinc end demand, according to Macquarie. The Argus weekly ex-works northwest Europe assessment for hot-dipped galvanised steel — one of the main products that use zinc — has dropped by nearly 17pc from the start of the year to €665/t ($690/t) on 4 December, reflecting a struggling steel sector in Europe.

European manufacturing activity also remains weak, with the automobile sector facing a number of factory closures because of subdued demand. German carmaker Volkswagen announced in late October that it plans to close at least three plants and lay off thousands of employees, as the firm attempts to save money amid falling sales because of an overall decrease in European car demand. And global automaker Stellantis plans to cut its inventories going into the new year.

Macquarie predicts that global refined zinc demand will grow by 1.7pc in 2025, which is lower than the previously anticipated 2.5pc growth rate because of uncertainty surrounding potential new US tariffs following the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump in January. The proposed tariffs could impact the strength of the US dollar and global trade.

Zinc premiums in Europe decreased in 2024. The Argus Rotterdam SHG zinc premium dropped by nearly 30pc throughout the year, reflecting weaker consumption from downstream industries, particularly construction and manufacturing. Ongoing uncertainty over global economic conditions, high energy costs and new supply in Europe will likely play a role in keeping premiums subdued.

Price outlook 2025

Given the anticipated supply surplus and the ongoing demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices in 2025. The 2024 zinc price currently averages at $2,800/t, but the World Bank and ratings agency Fitch both expect this to decline to $2,600/t in 2025, followed by a further drop to $2,500/t in 2026. Similarly, Macquarie forecasts the zinc price to drop to $2,650/t next year and to $2,450/t in 2026, reflecting expectations of a market surplus.

By Roxana Lazar

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans

Washington, 30 December (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump's re-election is sparking uncertainty in the US' synthetic graphite battery sector, with companies worried about a possible halt to government finance and a weaker outlook for domestic demand. "With Trump being elected president, everything's up in the air," one industry source said. Battery materials companies expecting to receive government funding to build plants in the US could see their prospects dim with Trump coming into office , since these companies need the federal grants to compete with China, a second source said. Trump on the campaign trail said he would rescind all unspent funds in President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and scrap Environmental Protection Agency tailpipe standards, which he called an electric vehicle (EV) "mandate". The Biden administration is racing to try and secure projects set to be funded by the IRA. On 16 December, US battery materials producer Novonix received a conditional loan for up to $754mn for a new synthetic graphite plant from the US Department of Energy (DOE). If finalised, the loan would be used to build a new 31,500 t/yr synthetic graphite plant in Tennessee by the end of 2028. DOE previously awarded Novonix a $100mn grant and a $103mn tax credit to expand capacity at its Tennessee plant to 40,000 t/yr by 2025 and 150,000 t/yr by 2030. DOE on 16 December also closed on its up to $9.6bn loan to South Korean battery manufacturer SK On for the construction of three battery plants in the US, the largest loan ever awarded under its Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Program. DOE also in September selected SKI US , part of India-based Birla Carbon, to receive $150mn build a 25,000 t/yr synthetic graphite production plant in South Carolina. Some in Trump's orbit have warned they will review contracts they view as hastily pushed out before the former president takes office . But some Republicans are likely to oppose full repeal of the IRA, since the bill funds projects in their districts. And Republicans will hold a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Even if Republicans do not repeal the IRA or other EV subsidies like tax credits, the uncertainty surrounding the new administration's support could be a stumbling block. "Who's going to put half a billion dollars into a battery plant right now when you don't have certainty on the push for EVs?" the first source said. Battery projects require huge amounts of investment. Swedish battery maker Northvolt obtained record venture capital investment for a European start-up at $15bn. But on 21 November, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US , in part because of difficulties "bridging financing between different stakeholders", outgoing chief executive Peter Carlsson said. The company had already closed down its R&D facility in the US and put plans for factories in Canada, Germany and Sweden on hold. Its financial woes intensified after the Swedish government declined to invest. Other European governments have already reduced financial support for EVs, more for spending reasons than policy, which has softened demand in the region. France recently changed eligibility requirements for subsidies , and Germany ended its subsidy late last year. Some companies, like Norwegian battery materials company Vianode, have been planning multi-billion dollar investment programmes to expand their reach in the automotive industry throughout North America and Europe. It is not clear if Trump's election will have an effect on these plans. Vianode opened its first anode graphite production plant, Via One, in Herøya, Norway, in October. The plant will have a capacity of 2,000 t/yr, enough to supply 30,000 EVs annually, according to Vianode. Chinese firms have scaled up production of key battery materials at all stages of the supply chain, creating more competition for European and US producers. Chinese producers dominate the global EV market with about 70pc of market share, even as the EU and US have put policies in place to try to support their domestic industry. China's lithium-ion battery exports to the US jumped in November as suppliers looked to get ahead of potential new tariffs. The Trump administration is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries to as much as 60pc in the coming few months after Biden earlier this year lifted them to 25pc from 7.5pc. This could help support US-based battery plants. But tariffs on Chinese goods could also present additional challenges, as the raw materials for synthetic graphite often have some Chinese components. Needle coke, traditionally the main raw material for synthetic graphite used in battery anodes, is not widely produced outside of China. And while companies in China have been researching options for using a wider range of petroleum coke qualities , specifications are still relatively narrow, with battery companies in China absorbing most of the world's suitable coke . One graphite anode plant in Europe has been struggling to procure petroleum coke, according to a market participant. Sourcing coke for synthetic graphite in Europe and other ex-China locations is likely challenging, as most of these refineries and calciners have tied up their supply in long-term commitments, one producer said. Refineries are also reducing coke production, as the required feedstocks have become more costly. By Lauren Masterson and Hadley Medlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Ti scrap’s rebound pinned on Boeing, melters

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Ti scrap’s rebound pinned on Boeing, melters

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Domestic titanium scrap demand and, in turn, prices are expected to increase in the second half of 2025, supported by a recovery in aircraft build rates and expansions in titanium melters' capacity that have boosted sentiment across the supply chain following a disappointing year. Industry expectations of greater scrap requirements in 2024 — predicated on aerospace manufacturers increasing their build rates — failed to materialize after production missteps and supply chain bottlenecks forced Boeing to curb output of its main aircraft programs and Airbus to delay its ramp targets . US prices for aerospace-grade titanium scrap have tumbled this year compared with 2023 averages, with 6-4 turnings off by 25pc and 6-4 bulk weldable down by 13pc through mid-December from the same period the prior year. Titanium melters' efforts to control input costs have had a trickle-down effect across the scrap supply chain, compelling processors and dealers to reduce their bids also to protect margins. Scrap suppliers foresee stronger consumption signals for 2025, pointing to the return of Boeing's 737 MAX production following a seven-week strike and the gradual decline of scrap inventories that have remained elevated relative to demand. Dealer and processors also are looking forward to the return of normalized build rates for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, its main wide-body model that contains about 15pc titanium compared with around 6pc for the 737. Production of the 787 has been hampered this year because of parts shortages , which the airframer expects to stamp out before year end. Still, those outlooks may be upended depending on whether US president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plans to impose sweeping tariffs on all imports into the US, and sources told Argus that any recovery likely will not take place until the summer at the earliest, cautioning that it would take months before the scrap industry would benefit from the comeback in aircraft manufacturing. Feeding new furnaces Market participants are banking on additional ingot production capacity that is scheduled to come on line in 2025 to fuel demand for aerospace-grade scrap, saying titanium melters will want to keep their new furnaces running hot. ATI expects to finish product qualifications related to its expansion at its Richland, Washington, operations next year, which should boost its melting capacity by 35pc over 2022 levels. Titanium Metals (TIMET) this summer plans to commission its new plant in Ravenswood, West Virginia, which is expected to turn out 33mn lbs of ingot annually in the project's first phase. Still, lengthy product qualifications may push out any benefit for the scrap supply chain to 2026. Perryman currently is ramping up after expanding its facility in Coal Center, Pennsylvania, that should grow the company's melting capacity by 16mn lbs to 42mn lbs annually. All those additions could lead to a run-up in scrap prices because of greater competition by melters for the same units, while longer lead times to get milled titanium products into machine shops creates a lag effect that leaves downstream generation largely unchanged. Trump-induced uncertainty A major source of uncertainty for next year centers around Trump's tariff policies, which have caused concern in the market. Trump campaigned on vows to levy 60pc duties on shipments from China, and more recently pledged 25pc duties on shipments from Mexico and Canada, and a 20pc duty on all other imports. If those come to fruition, it would increase costs for imports of titanium scrap — currently freely traded for all countries except China. But the tariff threats could also be Trump's way of generating negotiating leverage for his aims. "A duty on scrap from Europe and Japan would be a disaster for the industry," one source said. US titanium scrap imports reached 23,578 metric tonnes (t) through January-October, eclipsing the 22,453t sent in the same period in 2023 — a four-year high — and nearing pre-pandemic levels. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: AI hypes electronics, wider demand weak

30/12/24

Viewpoint: AI hypes electronics, wider demand weak

London, 30 December (Argus) — The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) could support demand for some electronic metals, but a weaker than expected recovery in the wider semiconductor market indicates that the overall demand picture for electronics remains mixed going into 2025. This year saw major growth for AI as AI chat bots and AI-capable smartphones entered the mainstream. Apple began the rollout of its Apple Intelligence software in October, catching up with competitors such as Samsung's Galaxy AI system, which launched in March. And in November Open AI's large language model ChatGPT reached 200mn active weekly users, doubling from a year earlier, as the day-to-day use of large language models has entered the mainstream and become more normalised. The deployment of AI and machine learning will be supported by the physical expansion of data centres and the development of hardware. This will require more of the specialty materials that make up electronic components, especially as these components will need to adapt to be more energy efficient and capable of handling more data. A single query to Chat GPT uses 10 times more electricity than a Google search and according to research from Goldman Sachs the data centre growth needed to support the rollout of AI could increase electricity demand by up to 160pc by 2030. This rising electricity demand is expected to boost demand for gallium nitride (GaN)-based power electronics, which switch the current and voltage flowing through a device. GaN power electronics lose less energy as heat , compared with standard silicon power electronics, and are able to operate at higher temperatures. As cooling makes up as much as 40pc of a data centre's energy consumption, switching to GaN-based power electronics could significantly reduce data centre energy usage and operating costs. Another compound semiconductor material that could receive a boost from AI and data centre growth is indium phosphide (InP), which is used in data and telecom transceivers, advanced sensors, and eventually could be essential to 6G wireless and satellite communications networks. InP-based photonic integrated circuits can transfer large amounts of data much more quickly and with greater energy efficiency than standard electronic integrated circuits, which could make them a key technology for data centres that need to quickly transfer large amounts of data between internal AI clusters. The US government has recognised the importance of InP technology, with CHIPS act funding going to multiple InP expansion projects this year . But despite this potential boost from AI and data centre demand, the overall demand picture from electronics has been mixed. US-based specialty materials producer Materion reported in its third-quarter results that semiconductor recovery has remained slower than expected this year, despite stronger demand for logic and memory chips used in high performance computing, and that the market for 2025 will be difficult to predict. Materion produces materials used in electronics and chip manufacturing, including tantalum sputtering targets used for thin film vapour deposition, as well as antimony, hafnium, aluminium and molybdenum chemicals used in atomic layer deposition and ion implantation processes. Major chip equipment maker ASML caused a stir among chip investors in the third quarter when it adjusted down its revenue prediction for 2025 to €30-35bn, from €30-40bn. Semiconductor manufacturers are limiting their capacity expansions because of slower than expected chip demand recovery in the wider market, ASML said. Demand for chips peaked towards the end of the Covid-19 pandemic as supply bottlenecks and a sharp increase in demand for consumer electronics lifted shipments of silicon wafers for electronics to a peak of 14,565mn² inches (MSI) in 2022. In comparison, shipments in 2024 are expected to total 12,174MSI, data from semiconductor industry association Semi show. Silicon wafers are the substrate on which most chips are built, so can be a good indicator of wider demand dynamics in the electronics industry. Global silicon wafer shipments are expected to increase to 13,328MSI in 2025, data from Semi show, but 2024 recovery was also expected to be much stronger and never materialised. So, despite the growth expected from the rollout of AI, the overall electronics picture remains murky. By Sian Morris Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Cu smelting capacity to outpace mining

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Cu smelting capacity to outpace mining

Shanghai, 30 December (Argus) — The global copper concentrate market will likely remain tight in 2025, as an expected rise in copper smelting production capacity is set to outpace new copper mining projects and expansions. Argus expects 2.8mn t/yr of copper smelting capacity to come on stream next year, with 1.25mn t/yr of this coming from China and 1.55mn t/yr from the rest of the world. Major Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous plans to launch two copper smelters in the second half of 2025, with a combined production capacity of 800,000 t/yr. The firm's 500,000 t/yr Tongling Jinxin smelter is expected to start up in the middle of 2025, pushed back from an initial launch date of the end of this year because of tight supply of copper concentrate feedstock. And the firm's 300,000 t/yr Tongling Jintong smelter is projected to start operations in October, with 200,000 t/yr of refined copper and 100,000 t/yr of copper anode production. But the company has not confirmed if it has secured enough copper concentrate to support either project. Major Chinese metals producer Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous is expected to begin operations at its new smelter at the end of this year, with a copper anode output capacity of 300,000 t/yr. And fellow domestic company Huading Copper finished building a new 100,000 t/yr refined copper project in November, according to market participants. Elsewhere, Indian conglomerate Adani launched a 500,000 t/yr smelter earlier this year and is expected to steadily ramp up to production capacity by 2026. Indonesian mining company PT Amman had planned to launch a 200,000 t/yr copper smelter in the fourth quarter of this year. US-based firm Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary is projected to resume production at its 300,000 t/yr Manyar smelter in the third quarter of 2025 after the facility was brought off line following a fire in October. And a 500,000 t/yr blister copper smelter at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to begin production in February. Supply growth Growth in copper concentrate supply next year is expected to mainly come from expansion projects at existing mines, with 1.2mn t/yr of additional mining capacity in the pipeline, according to Argus calculations. The first phase of Russia's Malmyzh mine is due to start operations in 2025, with a copper production capacity of 150,000 t/yr. Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi mine will continue ramping up production next year, in a bid to lift its copper output to 500,000 t/yr by 2028 from 168,100t in 2023. And the commissioning of Kamoa-Kakula's phase 3 in August 2024 will lift copper output at the mine to 600,000 t/yr in 2025 from 450,000 t/yr previously. Two mining expansions in Chile are expected to boost global copper production next year. Australian mining group BHP is scheduled to lift copper cathode output at its Escondida mine to 410,000 t/yr over a 10-year period, having produced 198,600t in the July 2023-June 2024 fiscal year. And Chilean copper producer Codelco's El Teniente mining project is due to increase copper output to 500,000 t/yr by 2025 from 245,500 t/yr in January-September. Lower utilisation rates But mining supply growth may be insufficient to meet the additional demand from new and expanded smelting capacity, meaning global copper smelters will likely have to reduce their utilisation rates to 70pc in 2025 from 75pc this year, according to industry forecasts. "The Onsan copper smelter in South Korea is likely to cut its output by 100,000t to 550,000t for 2025, because of concentrate supply tightness," a trading company told Argus . Some Chinese smelters have already cut production capacity in response to tight copper concentrate supply or because of accidents at their facilities. "Liaoning Shenghai Copper, Guangxi Nanguo Copper, Baiyin Nonferrous, Chifeng Fubang Copper and Daye Yangxin Hongsheng have suspended operations, removing a combined 1mn t/yr of production capacity," a trader said. Extended talks over 2025 benchmarks Annual benchmark talks between Chinese smelters and representatives from Chile-based mining firm Antofagasta for copper concentrate supplies in 2025 were subject to long delays. Major Chinese smelter Jiangxi Copper and Antofagasta finally settled their treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate supplies for 2025 on 5 December, at $21.25/t and 2.125¢/Ib respectively, down from $80/t and 8.0¢/Ib in 2024, according to market participants. Chinese copper smelters and overseas concentrate suppliers usually agree charges during the Asia Copper Week conference, which was this year held in Shanghai over 13-14 November. But settlements were delayed to early December because of the two sides' significant differences in price ideas. Antofagasta quoted $10/t for treatment charges in the first round of negotiations, but smelters bid $45/t and conceded to $35/t, market participants told Argus . New copper mining capacity/expansions '000 t/yr Mine Location Capacity Start-up Oyu Tolgoi Mongolia 300 2025-28 Kamoa DRC 150 3Q24 Kansanshi S3 Zambia 55 mid-2025 El Teniente new mine level Chile 170 1Q25 Comide DRC 40 end of 2025 Malmyzh Russia 150 2025 Escondida Full Sal Chile 200 3Q24-2Q25 Tongling Non-Ferrous Mirador II Ecuador 75 Jun-25 Salvado Rajo Inca Peru 90 late 2024 Total 1,230 — Argus New copper smelter capacity '000 t/yr Smelter Location Capacity Start-up Tongling Jintong Copper Inner Mongolia, China 300 Oct-25 Yunnan Copper relocate Yunnan, China 50 late 2024 Guangxi Jinchuan Guangxi, China 300 end of 2024 Tongling Jinxin Copper Anhui, China 500 mid-2025 Huading Copper Inner Mongolia, China 100 2025 Adani India 500 2024-26 Freeport Indonesia Indonesia 300 3Q25 PT Amman Indonesia 200 4Q24 Kamoa-Kakula DRC 500 Feb-25 Kansanshi S3 Zambia 55 mid-2025 Total 2,805 — Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Singapore extends electric vehicle incentive to 2027

30/12/24

Singapore extends electric vehicle incentive to 2027

Singapore, 30 December (Argus) — Singapore has extended the incentive for electric light commercial vehicles under its Commercial Vehicle Emissions Scheme (CVES) to 31 March 2027 from 1 April 2025. Incentives for more pollutive vehicles will also be scrapped or their surcharges raised, under the CVES. This is part of efforts to push for the adoption of cleaner commercial vehicles. The country's CVES categorises vehicles based on their "worst-performing pollutant". The S$15,000 ($11,060) CVES incentive for Band A, which includes mainly electric vehicles, has been kept unchanged at S$15,000, according to a joint statement by the city state's Land Transport Authority (LTA) and National Environment Agency (NEA). The S$5,000 incentive for Band B, which includes mainly petrol vehicles, will be scrapped, while the surcharge for Band C, which includes mainly diesel vehicles, will be raised from S$15,000 to S$20,000. "These changes are in line with the government's vision to have all vehicles run on cleaner energy by 2040," the LTA and NEA said in their joint statement on 30 December. Singapore will be halting new registrations for diesel cars and taxis from 2025, it said in July. Existing diesel cars will also be subject to higher road taxes. The country's Early Turnover Scheme (ETS) for heavy commercial vehicles, which promotes the replacement of older, more pollutive diesel commercial vehicles and buses by providing a discount when switching to cleaner-energy vehicles, will be extended to 31 December 2025. There were 11,941 battery electric cars in Singapore as of end-2023, which constituted just 1.8pc of its 2023 car population of around 651,300 units. The figure for petrol-electric hybrid cars, excluding plug-in vehicles, was much higher at 79,256 as of the end of 2023. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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