Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity, LPG, Natural gas
09/01/25

Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 4.21pc in December, the lowest in nearly four years, as slowing agricultural prices offset increases in energy, consumer goods and services.

This marks the lowest annual inflation since February 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. Inflation slowed from 4.55pc in November, marking four months of declines in the past five months. It closed 2024 below the December 2023 reading of 4.66pc, as CPI continues to cool from its peak of 8.7pc in August/September 2022at the height of the global inflation crisis.

The December headline rate slightly exceeded Mexican bank Banorte's 4.15pc forecast but aligned with its consensus estimate. Following the results, Banorte revised its end-2025 inflation projection to 4pc from 4.4pc and its core inflation estimate to 3.6pc from 3.7pc.

The bank suggested that the data supports the possibility of earlier cuts in 2025 in the central bank's target rate, currently at 10pc. Citi Mexico's January survey of 32 analysts estimated a target rate of 8.50pc by the end of 2025, with the next cut of 25 basis points expected at the next central bank policy meeting on 25 February. The central bank is targeting annual CPI of 2-4pc.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.65pc in December from 3.58pc in November, marking the first uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration, according to Mexico's statistics agency (Inegi). Services inflation sped up to 4.94pc from 4.9pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.47pc from 2.4pc.

Agricultural inflation moved to 6.57pc from 10.74pc in November, supported by favorable weather conditions. Banorte noted that the developing La Nina phenomenon could significantly impact meat prices in the coming months.

Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 5.73pc in December from 5.25pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. The industrial association Coparmex called for a review of Mexico's LPG pricing model, citing risks to supply and distribution.

Electricity inflation decelerated sharply to 2.65pc from 22pc in November, reflecting the end of seasonal summer subsidies, while natural gas prices fell 5.67pc year over year.

By James Young

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10/01/25

Australia's ACCC sees gas surplus for eastern states

Sydney, 10 January (Argus) — Tight gas supply eased in Australia's eastern states during 2024, with a surplus higher than previously anticipated likely this year, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The ACCC's Gas Inquiry December 2024 interim report anticipates a 77-112PJ (2.1bn-3bn m³) surplus, driven by larger than expected supply from Queensland state's coal-bed methane projects. The projections show a surplus in each quarter of 2025, including in the peak-demand winter months, if LNG projects export all their available uncontracted gas. This compared with the ACCC's September report which showed a possible July-September shortfall. But a 16PJ supply gap is predicted for the southern states of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales (NSW), which will need to be managed with careful usage of storage. But this does not account for the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired generator's lifetime extension , which will reduce gas-fired power demand in 2025, the report said. The ACCC is predicting a supply of 1,982PJ in 2025, higher than 1,946PJ in its July report, with demand at 1,871PJ compared to 1,836PJ previously. The exact surplus figure depends on the export quantities from the LNG projects based at Gladstone, with 77PJ of surplus if projects export all their presently uncontracted gas. Gas will need to be transported south from Queensland as usual in the winter months, the ACCC said, with about 9pc of customer demand to be unmet. The 26PJ Iona gas storage site in Victoria held 16.06PJ on 2 January, up from 15.11PJ a week earlier on 26 December, with the ACCC recommending at least 25PJ to be stored before May to maximise levels ahead of winter. The improved outlook reflects Australia's growing coalbed methane output, with production reaching a new monthly high of 3.57bn m³ in August, according to Australian Petroleum Statistics. An average of 3.49bn m³/month was supplied in the first 10 months of 2024, or 26pc of Australia's total average monthly gas production of 13.51bn m³. This compared to 25pc of the total in 2023 and 24pc in 2022. Domestic gas prices have softened, the report said, because of higher supply and lower global prices but remain above historical levels. Offers from producers for 2025 supply fell by 1.8pc from the previous six months to A$14.77/GJ ($9.15/GJ) in the first half of 2024, while bids fell by 6.6pc to A$13.48/GJ. By Tom Major Australian gas prices (A$/GJ) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuela opposition leader held, Gonzalez warned

09/01/25

Venezuela opposition leader held, Gonzalez warned

Caracas, 9 January (Argus) — Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was detained for several hours today after leaving a rally to protest President Nicolas Maduro's disputed swearing-in on Friday, her allies said. Machado and her party members hold that their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won a July presidential election, a claim supported by the US and many Latin American and other countries. The US kept in place broad sanctions against Venezuela's crude and energy industry in the wake of the contested election. Multiple black SUVs intercepted Machado while she traveled on motorcycle after the rally and forcibly took her while drones circled overhead, her allies confirmed. She was later released, they said, but she had not made a public appearance as of late Thursday afternoon. The Maduro government did not confirm Machado's detention. US representative Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Florida) vowed a response. "Our message to the Maduro regime is clear: If you attack Maria Corina Machado, we, the United States, will attack you", Salazar posted on social media. Venezuelan interior minister Diosdado Cabello has in turn threatened to "neutralize" any aircraft in national airspace carrying Gonzalez, who has said he will try to enter Venezuela on Friday to take the oath of office instead of Maduro. Gonzalez has been visiting multiple leaders in the region in the run-up to Maduro's ceremony, meeting with US president Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump's designated White House national security adviser Mike Waltz in Washington earlier this week. He has most recently visited the Dominican Republic and met with President Luis Abinader and other dignitaries there. Sources in Caracas say low turnout at pro-Maduro counter demonstrations today may have triggered the decision to arrest Machado. Trump's advisers have not disclosed whether they plan to tighten the US' sanctions against Venezuela, including whether they would remove exemptions allowing Chevron, Eni and Repsol to lift cargoes of oil produced in their joint ventures with state-owned PdV. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch (R-Idaho) unveiled a bill today that would condition a future removal of sanctions against Venezuela on the establishment of a democratically elected government in Caracas. But the bill, which enjoys backing of key Democrats on his committee, does not directly address Chevron's upstream exemption. By Carlos Camacho and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US physical trade in ethane, propane, rose in 2024

09/01/25

US physical trade in ethane, propane, rose in 2024

Houston, 9 January (Argus) — Growing natural gas liquids (NGL) production in the US last year led to higher volumes of physical trading for ethane and propane in 2024, according to Argus data. Volumes of physical ethane traded at the Enterprise (EPC) storage cavern in Texas surged last year by 43pc to 90.12mn bl from 63.2mn bl in 2023, according to trades recorded by Argus . The gains in physical in-well trading activity at Mont Belvieu, the world's largest storage hub for the feedstock, came even as spot ethane prices fell in 2024 to an average of 19.03¢/USG, down from 24.59¢/USG the previous year, on the back of production gains and weaker prices for natural gas. US ethane production from gas processing averaged 2.8mn b/d in the first 10 months of 2024, up from 2.64mn b/d during the same period in 2023, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Gains in US ethane production come amid growing demand from petrochemical buyers in China and Europe, which has bolstered US ethane exports and led to additional investments by both Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer in additional dock capacity for the feedstock. US ethane exports averaged 478,800 b/d in the first 10 months of 2024, down by 1.8pc from 487,600 b/d in 2023, due in part to loading delays associated with tie-in work for additional refrigeration at Gulf coast facilities. But exports in January-October 2024 were up by 17pc from the same period in 2022 on additional term contracts with international ethylene producers. Higher trading volumes in 2024 were not limited to ethane. Physical in-well trading of propane at Energy Transfer's LST storage cavern in Mont Belvieu rose by 30pc to 44.7mn bl in 2024, and in-well trading of propane at Enterprise's EPC storage cavern rose by 19pc to 68.3mn bl in 2024 versus 2023, according to trades recorded by Argus . US propane production from gas processing averaged 2.13mn b/d in January-October 2024, according to the latest available EIA data, up from 2mn b/d during the same period in 2023. LST and EPC propane prices rose in 2024 versus 2023 alongside increases in crude. Prompt-month LST propane averaged 77.12¢/USG during 2024, up from 71.13¢/USG in 2023. EPC propane averaged 77.63¢/USG in 2024, up from 70.83¢/USG in 2023. Argus publishes volume-weighted averages of physical trading at Mont Belvieu in addition to daily ranges. Ethane's traded midpoint averaged a 0.009¢/USG premium over the volume-weighted average in 2024. LST propane's traded range averaged a 0.037¢/USG discount to the volume-weighted average, and EPC propane's traded midpoint averaged a 0.143¢/USG discount to the volume-weighted average last year. By Amy Strahan Physical trading '000 bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Denmark invites applications for CO2 storage permits

09/01/25

Denmark invites applications for CO2 storage permits

London, 9 January (Argus) — The Danish Energy Agency has launched its fourth tender inviting applications for exploration and CO2 storage, in three areas off the northwest coast of Denmark. The blocks, in the Danish North Sea, are geologically "particularly suitable for storing CO2", Denmark's geological survey found. The application deadline is 6 March. The Danish government issues permits with two phases — an exploration and a storage phase. If granted an exploration permit, developers have up to six years to investigate and assess the suitability and CO2 storage capacity of the area. They are then able to apply for a storage permit, which will be valid for up to 30 years. The Danish state holds a 20pc stake in all exploration and storage permits. Denmark awarded three CO2 exploration permits in February 2023, and three more in June last year. UK company Ineos took a final investment decision for the first phase of the Greensand CO2 storage project in December. The site's developers successfully demonstrated a pilot CO2 injection in March 2023. The carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry is gradually developing, led by northern Europe. The region has a geological advantage, in its declining oil and gas fields, as well as government funding from countries including Denmark and Norway. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German gas demand edges up in 2024

08/01/25

German gas demand edges up in 2024

London, 8 January (Argus) — German gas demand remained largely unchanged on the year in 2024, as a recovery in industrial and power-sector burn was almost completely offset by lower residential and commercial consumption amid mild weather. Germany used about 2.285 TWh/d of gas in 2024, up by 6.6 GWh/d from 2.278 TWh/d in 2023, according to data from market area manager THE ( see yearly graph ). But total gas use remained below the 2018-21 average of 2.7 TWh/d, with the drop in wholesale prices from 2022-23 not supporting a rebound in aggregate consumption. Residential and commercial demand — largely for heating purposes — fell by 5pc year on year in 2024 to 894 GWh/d. Household gas prices remain high and are about double those in 2016-21, according to data from grid regulator Bnetza, which may have weighed on gas use by households and small businesses. Mild weather — especially in the first quarter of the year — also pushed down gas demand from households and small businesses. Temperatures were higher than in 2023 in all but three months in the first three quarters of the year, according to data released by German energy and water association BDEW in late December. The number of heating degree days (HDDs) in Germany was about 4pc below the previous year in 2024, and about 14pc below the 10-year average, according to data from Berlin-based think-tank Agora Energiewende. That said, colder weather in September-December supported a year-on-year increase in heating demand during these months ( see monthly year-on-year graph ). According to preliminary calculations published by Agora Energiewende on Tuesday, mild weather and high consumer prices continue to drive the majority of low heating demand, rather than energy-saving efforts. Without the effect of mild weather, emissions from the built environment — largely caused by heating — would have been higher in 2024 than a year earlier, according to Agora. A return of temperature-adjusted heating patterns to pre-crisis levels as well as slow structural changes, such as plummeting heat pump sales , led Agora to urge for more measures in heat transition policy to drive down gas demand from the built environment. Industrial gas demand up by 7pc despite economic woes German gas demand for use in industrial processes rose on the year, according to Argus estimates, supported by a slight recovery in energy-intensive industry. German industry used about 737 GWh/d for industrial processes in 2024, up from 688 GWh/d in 2023 but well below the 2018-21 average of 877 GWh/d, according to Argus analysis. While German GDP stagnated in 2024 and industrial production continued its downward trend, output from energy-intensive industries such as the chemicals sector recovered slightly, especially in the first half of the year. In addition, gas prices falling below LPG in January and remaining cheaper than LPG for most of the year until the fourth quarter may have encouraged some industrial firms to return to gas where they had previously switched to LPG to reduce energy costs. That said, gas prices rising back above propane and butane parity ( see LPG fuel-switching graph ) and lower output from the chemicals industry in recent months may have slowed the German industrial gas demand recovery . And several plant closures in recent years may similarly constrain any future rebound . Power-sector gas burn up Gas-fired generation increased in 2024 from a year earlier on more favourable generation economics than lignite and hard coal, despite a record renewables share reducing the overall call on thermal generation. Gas-fired generation reached 5.96GW last year, up from 5.88GW in 2023, leading to about 16 GWh/d in additional gas demand for power generation, according to Argus estimates. Gas-fired generation increased year on year despite renewables making up a record 62pc of German power generation. Fossil fuel generation was used to meet 17.1GW of power demand in 2024, down from 19.3GW in 2023. While overall power demand remained roughly unchanged from a year earlier, Germany lifted power imports, pushing down domestic generation ( see power mix graph ). But gas increased its share of the thermal mix, partly on lignite and coal plant closures as Germany's coal phase-out progresses. Gas prices at the bottom of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range for most of the year until the fourth quarter, even outperforming lignite plants in January-July, supported the call on gas for dispatchable generation. Recent gas price rises have put coal and lignite firmly ahead of gas in the power-generation merit order for all forward periods until 2026, suggesting scope for the share of gas in thermal output to be lower this year. By Till Stehr German power generation mix by year GW TTF versus LPG prices, energy equivalence basis $/mn Btu Monthly year-on-year change in gas demand by sector GWh/d German gas demand by year TWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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