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UK sets out '1.5°C-aligned' climate plan to 2035

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 30/01/25

The UK has released its third national climate plan, reiterating its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals, and to its 2035 target of an 81pc cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, from 1990 levels.

UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced the 2035 target at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in November last year. Countries and jurisdictions that are signatories to the Paris climate agreement commit to submitting new national climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — every five years, to UN climate body the UNFCCC. The agreement includes a ratchet mechanism, whereby climate targets should become more ambitious over time.

Today's NDC — the UK's third — covers 2031-35. The document consolidates plans already in place, and flags upcoming strategies. The government plans for "clean sources" of power to make up 95pc of the country's generation by 2030, cutting carbon intensity of electricity generation to "well below" 50g CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per kWh in 2030. Carbon intensity was 171g CO2e/kWh in 2023. And the plan notes that the UK was the first G7 country to shut down all coal-fired power, closing its last plant in September 2024.

The government has pledged "an initial" £3.4bn ($4.24bn) towards decarbonising heat and improving household energy efficiency over the next three years, and will introduce the delayed clean heat market mechanism in April. The scheme will require boiler manufacturers to ensure a proportion of their sales are "low carbon options".

The plan sets out the government's manifesto pledge to phase out sales of new cars "relying solely on internal combustion engines" by 2030, and notes that it will consult on issuing no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields. The government also promises "an updated cross-economy plan to meet our climate targets in due course", as well as a new industrial decarbonisation strategy by 2026.

The NDC is in line with advice from the UK's independent advisory Climate Change Committee, and with the country's legally binding sixth carbon budget. The latter includes international aviation and shipping emissions, although NDCs do not require this. The UK's third NDC is "a credible contribution towards limiting warming to 1.5 °C and it sits within a range of Paris-consistent equity metrics", the government said. The Paris accord seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C.

The country's Labour government, which took power in July last year, has repeatedly underlined its commitment to the UK's legally binding target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050.

The plan took some direction from the outcome of Cop 28, in December 2023. Countries agreed at Cop 28 to transition away from fossil fuels and to treble renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW by 2030.

The NDC also underlined the UK's commitment to spending £11.6bn in international climate finance over April 2021-March 2026, and will outline future climate finance plans in its spring 2026 spending review. UK international climate finance over April 2011-March 2024 reduced or avoided 105mn t of GHG emissions, the government said.


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22/02/25

Calif lawmakers begin GHG program extension

Calif lawmakers begin GHG program extension

Houston, 22 February (Argus) — California lawmakers will pursue reauthorizing the state's cap-and-trade program to control major emissions sources this legislative session, a move that could give market participants greater legal certainty. AB 1207, a bill filed 21 February by state representative and chair of the Joint Legislative Committee on Climate Change Policies Jacqui Irwin (D), would reauthorize the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to operate its cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sources such as power plants and transportation fuels. A 2017 law already extended the program out to 2030, but this new bill could allay concerns from the market amid a sluggish regulatory update to the rules and growing pressure from the federal government. CARB began weighing amendments to its cap-and-trade program in 2023, following the adoption of its 2022 scoping plan, which highlighted a need for increased program ambition to keep the state on track for its target of net-zero by 2045. Stakeholders have petitioned CARB to seek a formal reauthorization in the legislature to aid compliance planning and add legal certainty throughout its ongoing rulemaking procedure to potentially move the program to a 48pc GHG reduction target from 1990 levels by 2030, rather than the current 40pc. With CARB experiencing ongoing delays in twin rulemakings with market partner Quebec, a formal reauthorization represents a significant step in outlining the program's future, after months of uncertainty . This legislative action dovetails with the focus of the governor Gavin Newsom's (D) administration and budget writers, as they work to navigate growing tension with the federal government and projected multi-year deficits in the state's budget. Newsom announced his intent for lawmakers and the administration to focus on reauthorizing the state's program in January in his 2025-26 budget proposal, highlighting the revenue from the program. Cap-and-trade auction revenue enters the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF), which supports the state's clean economy transition through programs targeting GHG emissions reductions. In recent budget talks appropriations of GGRF funds have come under scrutiny, with state Assembly Budget Climate Crisis, Resources, Energy and Transportation Subcommittee chair Steve Bennett (D) in a informational hearing on 19 February highlighting the need for lawmakers to ensure the revenue supports projects that will fulfill needed GHG reductions, as the chamber discusses reauthorization. Lawmakers have until 6 June to pass the bill out to the state Senate. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Republicans target US energy rules for disapproval


21/02/25
21/02/25

Republicans target US energy rules for disapproval

Washington, 21 February (Argus) — Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives hope to disapprove at least seven energy-related measures issued under former president Joe Biden using a filibuster-proof process created under the Congressional Review Act. House majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) on Thursday released a list of 10 rules that his party has prioritized as "potential targets" for disapproval votes, which require only a simple majority to pass in each chamber. Republicans previously used the law in 2017 to successfully unwind more than a dozen rules, and they hope to do so again to repeal Biden-era rules they say will unnecessarily raise costs on businesses and consumers. A US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation that implements a $900/t charge on oil and gas sector methane leaks is among the rules that Republicans want to disapprove. If those implementing rules are scrapped, it would provide a temporary reprieve from a 31 August deadline for operators having to pay billions of dollars in potential fees on methane emitted in 2024. Republicans hope to vote later this year to permanently end the methane charge, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans also hope to disapprove an offshore oil and gas safety rule for drilling in deepwater "high pressure, high temperature" environments that Scalise's office says will increase "burdens on energy operations". Other rules that Republicans will target for disapproval are energy conservation for gas water heaters, energy efficiency labeling standards and air pollution restrictions on rubber tire manufactures. Two of the energy measures House Republicans say they plan to target might not qualify for disapproval under the Congressional Review Act, which can only be used on a "rule". The first is a waiver that would allow California to boost in-state sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and that President Donald Trump's administration has tried to make eligible for repeal. The second is the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's decision to release voluntary guidance for exchanges that allow trading of carbon offset futures. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Freeze cuts Oklahoma oil and gas output


21/02/25
21/02/25

Freeze cuts Oklahoma oil and gas output

New York, 21 February (Argus) — Frigid weather in Oklahoma this week has shut in about a third of state oil and natural gas production, according to analysts and pipeline flow data. About 35-40pc of daily oil and gas output in Oklahoma have been lost to freeze-offs from 19-21 February, Energy Aspects analyst David Seduski told Argus . That amounts to cuts of about 150,000 b/d of crude and 2.5 Bcf/d (71mn m³/d) of gas over the period relative to average daily production in the state, US Energy Information Administration data show. The drop was observable in publicly available data for most interstate pipelines across the state, including Kinder Morgan's Natural Gas Pipeline Company, Howard Energy Partner's Midship Pipeline and Energy Transfer's Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line Company and Enable Gas Transmission pipelines, FactSet energy analyst Bailey McLaughlin said. Production will probably continue to be lost through the weekend as cold weather lingers in the state. Freeze-offs occur when temperatures drop low enough to prevent oil and gas production from reaching the wellhead by causing the water contained in the oil and gas stream to freeze. Freeze-offs in Oklahoma typically occur when temperatures fall below 22°F (-6°C), McLaughlin said. This is a higher threshold than the temperature required to curtail output in colder producing regions such as North Dakota, which has also lost production to freeze-offs in recent weeks. The spot gas price at ANR Oklahoma, a regional trading hub on TC Energy's ANR Pipeline, on Thursday surged to $7.715/mmBtu, double the week-earlier price and the highest since 17 January. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German power industry split on capacity market design


21/02/25
21/02/25

German power industry split on capacity market design

London, 21 February (Argus) — Stakeholders in the German power market are divided on how best to implement a capacity market in Germany, or whether it is needed at all, Argus heard on the sidelines of the E-World conference in Essen last week. Instead of entertaining the "misleading" debate over centralised versus decentralised mechanisms, in which the government tries to "delegate accountability for security of supply", what is really needed is "centralised accountability with decentralised assets", Stefan Joerg-Goebel, senior vice-president for Germany at utility Statkraft, said. "The market should be centrally organised but technologies bidding into the market should include, for example, decentralised demand-side response and batteries," he said. But "only the state can really secure supply". Transmission system operator Amprion prefers a centralised capacity segment with a "local component" over the combined capacity market proposal, according to Peter Lopion, consultant in the firm's international regulation management and market development team. He emphasised the importance of knowing "when and where" power plants will come on line. Amprion also stressed that "incentives for grid-serving behaviour" are needed for batteries in particular . In contrast, a decentralised capacity market — not too dissimilar to that of France — is the "best solution" for Germany, although it would first need to adapt to the "German reality", Davide Orifici, director of public and regulatory affairs at energy exchange Epex, said. Such a system would "better help to integrate flexibility" and "further develop demand response", he said, adding that the impression that a centralised system would be simpler is "false". And a decentralised element is "crucial" to "fully leveraging the potential of the demand side", according to Jan Bruebach, managing director at utility MVV. Nevertheless, the addition of the centralised element would add "long-term security" and thus the German energy ministry BMWK's combined proposal is "fine". And while not specifying a particular design, "something at least similar to a capacity market" is important for security of supply and to "provide incentives to hold capacity on stand-by" during periods of low renewable generation, said Andre Jaeger, senior vice-president of product management at trading and risk management firm Ion Commodities. Kerstin Andreae of energy and water association BDEW agreed at a press conference that Germany "needs" the transition to a capacity market. But Peter Reitz, chief executive of energy exchange EEX, does not see the introduction of a capacity market in Germany as being essential. "The same effect can be achieved much more cheaply by introducing the obligation to deliver into the energy-only market," he said, although a decentralised market would "interfere the least with liquidity". And the introduction of a capacity market in Germany would be "costly", Andy Sommer, head of fundamental analysis and modelling at utility Axpo, said. The costs would probably be absorbed by grid operators and the state, and eventually offloaded on to end-consumers, he said. Energy ministry BMWK in August opened a consultation on the country's future power market system, with four options to finance controllable power capacities: a capacity-hedging mechanism through peak price hedging, a decentralised capacity market, a centralised capacity market, and finally, the ministry's preferred option of a "combined capacity market". Despite the deadline for member states to incorporate the EU-mandated electricity market design having passed on 17 January, the design will "probably" be implemented by the next government, BMWK deputy director Andre Poschmann said at an industry event last month . The capacity market question is likely to draw the most political attention after the federal election on 23 February, Joerg-Goebel said, adding that the successful continuation of the coal phase-out — which is currently an "uncomfortable issue" for market participants — can be "fixed" only with new capacity. And without a capacity mechanism, it will be "very difficult" to invest in new peak generation plants, Bruebach said, with Lopion adding that the coal phase-out is "dependent on" new capacity mechanisms. A bidding zone split would harm liquidity And the decision over whether to split Germany into multiple bidding zones remains a concern, with Argus having heard a general consensus that a bidding zone split would negatively affect liquidity in power trading. Larger price zones acting as a "larger mass" are better for liquidity, according to Reitz, citing the German-Austrian bidding zone split and subsequent reduction in Austrian power liquidity. A split would cause "disruption" to the entire market, owing to regulatory changes and the loss in liquidity, agreed Joachim Bertsch, senior business development manager at utility RWE, while Bruebach said it would "crush" liquidity, disadvantage smaller market participants and drive up costs for industries in the south of the country. While BMWK in August rejected the "reconfiguration" of the single German-Luxembourg bidding zone , the "pressure" to introduce multiple bidding zones will intensify if grid expansion does not, according to Joerg-Goebel, while Parasram said he believes "some form of split" will happen. By Bea Leverett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Uruguay eyes oil, gas E&P within energy transition


21/02/25
21/02/25

Uruguay eyes oil, gas E&P within energy transition

Montevideo, 21 February (Argus) — Uruguay's state-run Ancap has hopes for an offshore oil or gas discovery, even as the country gears up for its second energy transition. Uruguay has had only three exploratory wells drilled in its history, two in 1976 and one in 2017, and they all came up dry. Companies have completed 13,000 km² of 2D and 41,000 km² of 3D seismic testing this century. Today, its seven offshore blocks have contracts, plans are underway for a new round of seismic testing and one company, US-based APA, wants to spud an exploratory well in its wholly operated block 6 in late 2026 or early 2027. "For the first time in history, we have contracts in place for all the blocks and there is a great deal of interest that resources can be found" in Uruguay, Santiago Ferro, Ancap's energy transition manager, told Argus . A public hearing on seismic testing was held 13 February and the environment ministry is reviewing proposals for permits. Ferro said seismic testing will only be done in areas lacking data. "We want to take advantage of existing information and complement it with new data to encourage drilling," he said. The plan is for approximately 5,000 km² (1,930 mi²) of new seismic testing on two areas — block 1, operated by Chevron and UK-based Challenger Energy Group, and block 4, operated by Shell and APA. The work will likely happen in the final quarter of this year. Ancap's plans will unfold under the new left-wing government of president-elect Yamandu Orsi, who takes office on 1 March. The Oris administration is committed to deepening Uruguay's energy transition. It already has one of the greenest power grids, with 99pc of power coming from renewables, and the Orsi government wants to guarantee electrification of the transportation sector. He will arrive at his inauguration in an elective vehicle as a sign of the government's commitment. The administration wants to decarbonize transportation in 10 years, which will require incentives for vehicles and investment in additional renewable power, principally solar energy. It has not taken a public stand on oil and gas exploration or what it would do if recoverable resources were discovered. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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