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Trump to impose 25pc tariffs on Canada, Mexico

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 30/01/25

President Donald Trump said today he will proceed with plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on 1 February and explicitly referenced their potential application to crude imports.

"I'll be putting the tariff of 25pc on Canada, and separately, 25pc on Mexico," Trump told reporters at the White House. "We will really have to do that, because we have very big deficits with those countries. Those tariffs may or may not rise with time."

Pressed to explain if his tariffs may exempt crude imports, Trump said he was not inclined to exclude them but has yet to make a decision.

"We may or may not" exclude oil, Trump said. "It depends on what the price is, if the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly."

Trump added: "We're going to make that determination, probably tonight, on oil."

The looming face-off on tariffs has unnerved US oil producers and refiners, which are warning of severe impacts to the integrated North American energy markets if taxes are imposed on flows from Canada and Mexico to the US. Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute has lobbied the administration to exclude crude from tariffs.

US refiner Valero said today that a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports would force it to find alternative sources of crude, potentially resulting in a 10pc cut to throughputs. Valero's refining footprint in the US Gulf coast allows it to source feedstocks from around the world, but there is a point where a limit on heavy feedstocks like those from Canada could affect production of refined products, said chief operating officer Gary Simmons.

Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Canadian producers have much less flexibility, as more than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US.

Canadian crude that flows through the US for export from Gulf coast ports would be exempt from tariffs under current trade rules, providing another potential outlet for Alberta producers — unless Trump's potential executive action on Canada tariffs eliminates that loophole.

Trump frequently makes the case that foreign suppliers are solely responsible for paying tariffs. In reality, US importers pay the tariffs, and such costs are typically passed on to consumers. In the case of Canadian and Mexican crude, the US refiners that buy from those countries would pay a tax on the value of crude imports.

Whether the price of Canadian crude falls by a sufficient amount to offset the 25pc tariff would depend on the market power of individual US refiners and Canadian producers, as well as actions by the Alberta government, according to a recent report by the Congressional Research Service.

US refineries with access to alternative suppliers could source crude from non-Canadian producers, potentially keeping their additional costs below 25pc. Conversely, import reductions could pressure prices for Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude. In turn, Alberta could reimpose a production curtailment policy in a bid to narrow WCS discounts, the report said.


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21/02/25

Republicans target US energy rules for disapproval

Republicans target US energy rules for disapproval

Washington, 21 February (Argus) — Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives hope to disapprove at least seven energy-related measures issued under former president Joe Biden using a filibuster-proof process created under the Congressional Review Act. House majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) on Thursday released a list of 10 rules that his party has prioritized as "potential targets" for disapproval votes, which require only a simple majority to pass in each chamber. Republicans previously used the law in 2017 to successfully unwind more than a dozen rules, and they hope to do so again to repeal Biden-era rules they say will unnecessarily raise costs on businesses and consumers. A US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation that implements a $900/t charge on oil and gas sector methane leaks is among the rules that Republicans want to disapprove. If those implementing rules are scrapped, it would provide a temporary reprieve from a 31 August deadline for operators having to pay billions of dollars in potential fees on methane emitted in 2024. Republicans hope to vote later this year to permanently end the methane charge, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans also hope to disapprove an offshore oil and gas safety rule for drilling in deepwater "high pressure, high temperature" environments that Scalise's office says will increase "burdens on energy operations". Other rules that Republicans will target for disapproval are energy conservation for gas water heaters, energy efficiency labeling standards and air pollution restrictions on rubber tire manufactures. Two of the energy measures House Republicans say they plan to target might not qualify for disapproval under the Congressional Review Act, which can only be used on a "rule". The first is a waiver that would allow California to boost in-state sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and that President Donald Trump's administration has tried to make eligible for repeal. The second is the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's decision to release voluntary guidance for exchanges that allow trading of carbon offset futures. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Freeze cuts Oklahoma oil and gas output


21/02/25
21/02/25

Freeze cuts Oklahoma oil and gas output

New York, 21 February (Argus) — Frigid weather in Oklahoma this week has shut in about a third of state oil and natural gas production, according to analysts and pipeline flow data. About 35-40pc of daily oil and gas output in Oklahoma have been lost to freeze-offs from 19-21 February, Energy Aspects analyst David Seduski told Argus . That amounts to cuts of about 150,000 b/d of crude and 2.5 Bcf/d (71mn m³/d) of gas over the period relative to average daily production in the state, US Energy Information Administration data show. The drop was observable in publicly available data for most interstate pipelines across the state, including Kinder Morgan's Natural Gas Pipeline Company, Howard Energy Partner's Midship Pipeline and Energy Transfer's Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line Company and Enable Gas Transmission pipelines, FactSet energy analyst Bailey McLaughlin said. Production will probably continue to be lost through the weekend as cold weather lingers in the state. Freeze-offs occur when temperatures drop low enough to prevent oil and gas production from reaching the wellhead by causing the water contained in the oil and gas stream to freeze. Freeze-offs in Oklahoma typically occur when temperatures fall below 22°F (-6°C), McLaughlin said. This is a higher threshold than the temperature required to curtail output in colder producing regions such as North Dakota, which has also lost production to freeze-offs in recent weeks. The spot gas price at ANR Oklahoma, a regional trading hub on TC Energy's ANR Pipeline, on Thursday surged to $7.715/mmBtu, double the week-earlier price and the highest since 17 January. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Uruguay eyes oil, gas E&P within energy transition


21/02/25
21/02/25

Uruguay eyes oil, gas E&P within energy transition

Montevideo, 21 February (Argus) — Uruguay's state-run Ancap has hopes for an offshore oil or gas discovery, even as the country gears up for its second energy transition. Uruguay has had only three exploratory wells drilled in its history, two in 1976 and one in 2017, and they all came up dry. Companies have completed 13,000 km² of 2D and 41,000 km² of 3D seismic testing this century. Today, its seven offshore blocks have contracts, plans are underway for a new round of seismic testing and one company, US-based APA, wants to spud an exploratory well in its wholly operated block 6 in late 2026 or early 2027. "For the first time in history, we have contracts in place for all the blocks and there is a great deal of interest that resources can be found" in Uruguay, Santiago Ferro, Ancap's energy transition manager, told Argus . A public hearing on seismic testing was held 13 February and the environment ministry is reviewing proposals for permits. Ferro said seismic testing will only be done in areas lacking data. "We want to take advantage of existing information and complement it with new data to encourage drilling," he said. The plan is for approximately 5,000 km² (1,930 mi²) of new seismic testing on two areas — block 1, operated by Chevron and UK-based Challenger Energy Group, and block 4, operated by Shell and APA. The work will likely happen in the final quarter of this year. Ancap's plans will unfold under the new left-wing government of president-elect Yamandu Orsi, who takes office on 1 March. The Oris administration is committed to deepening Uruguay's energy transition. It already has one of the greenest power grids, with 99pc of power coming from renewables, and the Orsi government wants to guarantee electrification of the transportation sector. He will arrive at his inauguration in an elective vehicle as a sign of the government's commitment. The administration wants to decarbonize transportation in 10 years, which will require incentives for vehicles and investment in additional renewable power, principally solar energy. It has not taken a public stand on oil and gas exploration or what it would do if recoverable resources were discovered. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France's US crude imports at record again in December


21/02/25
21/02/25

France's US crude imports at record again in December

Barcelona, 21 February (Argus) — French crude imports in December included a record amount from the US for a third consecutive month, and the US was France's largest crude supplier in 2024. Customs data show imports at 4.2mn t (990,000 b/d) in December, down by 2pc on the year and down from 4.3mn t a month earlier. Deliveries in 2024 were 47.1mn t, lower by 2.4pc on the year. Deliveries of US crude were 1.34mn t in December, up from slightly more than 1.25mn t in November and just over 1.2mn t in October. US crude has continued to arrive in January and February. The US was the largest supplier to the Mediterranean port of Fos-Lavera in January , with more cargoes arriving there and at the Atlantic Le Havre terminal this month, according to Argus tracking. The US is now by far the biggest supplier to France. It provided 11.5mn t of crude in 2024, up from 9mn t in 2023, with the large majority being light sweet WTI. The US supplied no crude to France 10 year ago. The growth since has significantly altered the French crude slate, pushing it lighter and less sulphurous. As recently as 2019, when 4.4mn t of US crude arrived, medium sour grades Saudi Arab Light and Russian Urals accounted for more than 15mn t between them, split 2:1 in favour of Saudi Arabia. Sanctioned Urals was absent in 2024 for a second year in a row and Saudi Arabia supplied just 1.3mn t, down from 3.5mn t in 2023. There has not been a major shift in other suppliers (see chart) . Last year Nigeria supplied 6.4mn t, down marginally on 2023, Kazakhstan shipped 5.3mn t down from 5.6mn t and Algeria 4.2mn t, down from 4.6mn t. While French refinery availability has been plagued by problems since the fourth quarter of 2019 , the lighter sweeter crude slate has resulted in higher production of light products naphtha and gasoline . This increase has occurred even after TotalEnergies definitively closed its 93,000 b/d Grandpuits refinery at the start of 2021. There is the possibility of continued support for US shipments this year. Alternative light sweet Libyan crude can be prone to political disruption, Nigerian domestic crude consumption is growing as the 600,000 b/d Dangote refinery ramps up , and Kazakhstan is under pressure to compensate for exceeding its Opec+ output target and could limit deliveries of CPC Blend. By Adam Porter French crude imports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US cites 'energy emergency' to expedite water permits


20/02/25
20/02/25

US cites 'energy emergency' to expedite water permits

Washington, 20 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is citing an "energy emergency" as the basis to fast-track nearly 700 water permits, including those tied to a tunnel for Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline, LNG infrastructure projects, solar farms and electric transmission lines. Trump declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office, unlocking permitting powers that are typically used in response to natural disasters. The US Army Corps of Engineers has subsequently reclassified hundreds of permit applications for review under expedited emergency procedures, in a move that environmentalists say they plan to challenge in court based on violations of the Clean Water Act and Endangered Species Act. "The Trump administration is planning to skirt legally-required review processes in order to fast-track permits for dirty energy projects under the guise of an energy ‘emergency'", Sierra Club policy director Mahyar Sorour said. The Corps is responsible for issuing water permits for projects that cross streams, rivers, wetlands and other water bodies. Issuing permits sometimes requires the agency to prepare a detailed environmental review that is open to comment and can take years to finish. The water permits classified for emergency treatment include a repair project for Sabine Pass LNG in Louisiana, dredging for Elba Island LNG in Georgia, temporary construction related to Port Arthur LNG in Texas, solar projects in dozens of states, and pipeline projects ExxonMobil is pursuing in Texas. Enbridge delayed construction of a protective tunnel for its Line 5 pipeline to 2026 because of water permitting delays . But environmentalists say the administration cannot cite an energy emergency — which they say does not exist — as justification to bypass permitting rules prescribed by the US Congress. The Corps has also provided emergency treatment to projects with no apparent connection to energy production, such as a housing project in southern California and a gold mine in Idaho, according to an online database. The Corps did not respond to detailed questions but said it was "in the process of reviewing active permit applications relative to the executive order." Congress is continuing to lay groundwork for a bipartisan permitting bill that supporters say could make it faster and cheaper to build pipelines, power plants, electric transmission lines, renewable energy projects and transportation infrastructure. But Democratic leaders are threatening to vote against such a bill so long as Trump continues to "pause" billions of dollars in funding for clean energy projects provided by the Inflation Reduction Act and other laws. "Until the administration shows it will honor its oath to faithfully and impartially execute the laws, we can have zero confidence that any legislative compromise on permitting reform will be executed lawfully," US senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) said at a permitting hearing on 19 February. Oil industry and renewable groups are continuing to push for a comprehensive permitting bill, which they say would bring down project costs and help the US meet surging electricity demand from data centers and manufacturers. Permitting changes are "needed for all technologies, and they are needed to meet our energy demand in the future," Business Council for Sustainable Energy president Lisa Jacobson said. "You can't walk away from those facts or that imperative." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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