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Trump tariffs to hit Canada, Mexico, China on 1 Feb

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petroleum coke
  • 31/01/25

President Donald Trump will proceed with plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10pc on imports from China on 1 February, the White House said today.

The White House pushed back on reports that the tariffs would be delayed and declined to confirm whether Trump made a decision on whether to exclude Canadian and Mexican crude from the tariffs.

"Those tariffs will be for public consumption in about 24 hours tomorrow, so you can read them then," the White House said.

The looming face-off on tariffs has unnerved US oil producers and refiners, which are warning of severe impacts to the integrated North American energy markets if taxes are imposed on flows from Canada and Mexico. Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute has lobbied the administration to exclude crude from the planned tariffs.

Trump on Thursday acknowledged a debate over the application of tariffs to oil but said he had yet to make a decision on exemptions.

The White House dismissed concerns about potential inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs. "Americans who are concerned about increased prices should look at what President Trump did in his first term," it said.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau reiterated today that Ottawa would retaliate against US tariffs.

Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Canadian producers have much less flexibility, as more than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US.

Canadian crude that flows through the US for export from Gulf coast ports would be exempt from tariffs under current trade rules, providing another potential outlet for Alberta producers — unless Trump's potential executive action on Canada tariffs eliminates that loophole.

Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets.

New York Harbor spot market gasoline prices are around $2/USG, meaning a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports could up that price by as much as 50¢/USG. This could prompt buyers in New England or other US east coast markets to look to other supply options. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America.

US refiner Valero said that the tariffs could cause a 10pc cut in refinery runs depending on how the tariffs are implemented and how long they last.

The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term.

The US is a net gas importer from Canada, with gross imports of 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The US' Canadian imports far exceeded the 2.63 Bcf/d it delivered across its northern border over the same period, EIA data show.

Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said.


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03/03/25

US needs to ‘feel the pain’ for tariffs: Ford

US needs to ‘feel the pain’ for tariffs: Ford

Calgary, 3 March (Argus) — US president Donald Trump needs to pull back on his tariffs against Canada or Ontario will stop the flow of nickel and electricity over the border, the premier of the country's most populated province said today. "If they want to annihilate Ontario, I'll do everything, including cut off their energy, with a smile on my face," said Ontario premier Doug Ford, speaking at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada's conference in Toronto. "They rely on our energy, they need to feel the pain." US president Donald Trump said on Monday the tariffs are "all set" to go into place on 4 March at 12:01am ET , a move that will likely to set off a trade war among the long-time economic allies. Under the executive orders Trump signed a month ago, the US will impose a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. "A tariff on Canada is a tax on Americans," said Ford. "They're going to get hurt, it's the wrong decision." Ford has directed his government to be ready should tariffs be implemented. The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) will take "every bit of US alcohol off the shelves", a prospect that Ford said has senior politicians in Kentucky "losing their minds." A C$100mn deal with Elon Musk's Starlink internet services will be torn up, and Ford suggested legislation may be created to encourage consumers to buy more Canadian goods. "I'm not going to start a tariff war," said Ford. "[Trump] is going to get a rude awakening." In a broadcast interview later on Monday, Ford said he would stop the flow of nickel and electricity into the US. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau was en route from London on Monday and is expected to meet with his cabinet upon his return. "This is an existential threat to us," Canada's minister of foreign affairs Melanie Joly said Monday in Ottawa. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico factory contraction extends into February


03/03/25
03/03/25

Mexico factory contraction extends into February

Mexico City, 3 March (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted again in February, according to the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) survey from the finance executive association IMEF. The manufacturing PMI rose to 47 from 46 in January, marking the 11th consecutive month below the 50-point threshold between contraction and expansion. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index rose 1.6 points to 44.6, still deep in contraction. Similarly, production rose 2.8 points to 45.6. The employment index fell half a point to 46.4 in February, now in contraction for 13 consecutive months. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs increased slightly in February but remained in contraction territory. The non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — increased slightly to 49.5 in February from 49.2 in January, staying in contraction for a third consecutive month. Non-manufacturing new orders rose 1.3 points to 49.4, production increased 1.6 points to 49.1 and employment fell slightly to 48.4 from 48.6, all in contraction. Victor Herrera, director of economic studies at IMEF, described the upticks on both PMIs as fluctuations, with the statistical "trend line in both PMIs showing we are moving further into contraction." With US president Donald Trump's tariffs on imports from Mexico set to begin Tuesday, IMEF warned they could severely impact industrial production and financial stability in Mexico. "This is a sign of further bad news on growth in the short term," with uncertainty tied to looming US tariffs on Mexican goods weighing on investment and industrial activity, Herrera said. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mosaic aims to restore fertilizer output in '25


03/03/25
03/03/25

Mosaic aims to restore fertilizer output in '25

Houston, 3 March (Argus) — North American fertilizer producer Mosaic aims to complete maintenance at its assets in early 2025 and restore potash and phosphate production in line with historical levels following several disruptions to output in 2024. The producer forecasts its potash production to rise to a range of 8.7-9.1mn metric tonnes (t) in 2025, up from 8.7mn t in 2024. The company forecast phosphate production to rise to 7.4-7.6mn t in 2025 from 6.4mn t in 2024. The increased potash production will partly stem from the company's 400,000t Hydrofloat expansion at the Esterhazy mine in Canada's Saskatchewan province that Mosaic anticipates completing later this year. Mosaic also hopes to increase production following some maintenance work at its facilities, which will bring the company's capital expenditures for 2025 in line with 2024 levels at about $1.25bn. The producer has an ongoing turnaround at its sulfuric acid unit at its Bartow, Florida, phosphate processing plant that Mosaic expects to complete later this week. All sulfuric acid plants across Florida and Louisiana are back to doing turnarounds every three years, after the Covid-19 pandemic interrupted its maintenance schedule, the company said. The New Wales, Florida, plant brought forward some work at its phosphoric acid unit to address lingering reliability issues there that reduced output in 2024. The work at New Wales should increase Mosaic's production in the back half of the year, Mosaic said. Mosaic lost 700,000t of phosphate production and 250,000t of potash production in 2024 from operational and weather-related issues at its facilities, the company said. Back-to-back hurricanes impacting Florida in October contributed to the reduction in phosphate output. Electrical issues at the Esterhazy and Colonsay mines in Saskatchewan disrupted potash production in the third quarter. The company said it has recently operated both facilities at full capacity. Separately, Mosaic plans to finish the development of its 1mn t/yr blending plant in Palmeirante, Brazil, in 2025 as well. By Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump says 'all set' on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update


03/03/25
03/03/25

Trump says 'all set' on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update

Updates with changes throughout Washington, 3 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he will proceed with plans to impose stiff tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. "The tariffs, you know, they're all set, they go into effect tomorrow," Trump told reporters at the White House this afternoon, adding that there was "no room for a deal" to avert what would be a continent-wide trade war. Under the executive orders Trump signed a month ago, the US will impose a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. The effective date for the tariffs is 12:01am ET on Tuesday. Trump clarified that he is sticking to the same rate of tariffs set out in his executive order, after his advisers over the weekend suggested he could apply a lower rate. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent pointed to a proposal by Mexico City to match the level of tariffs Trump has leveled or is planning to impose on imports from China, as a way to avoid a trade war between the US and its neighbors. "It would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also, so in a way we could have 'Fortress North America' from the flood of Chinese imports," Bessent said in a televised interview. Trump ordered a 10pc tariff on all imports from China, effective on 4 February. He is threatening to double that tax on Tuesday. The rate would be in addition to all previously imposed tariffs on imports from China. Trump's announcement came just one day after US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick suggested the tariffs to be imposed on Canadian and Mexican imports might not be as high as those set out in Trump's order last month. Already vast segments of the energy industry — oil and gas producers, refiners, pipeline operators, traders — have been bracing for potentially disruptive outcomes. US independent refiners, already facing weaker margins, falling demand and regulatory uncertainty in their burgeoning renewables businesses, expect that tariffs will lead to higher feedstock costs and will cause some to reduce runs, cutting further into profits. A major European energy trading company has redirected some volumes of natural gas that were scheduled to flow across the US border into Canada to reduce the company's exposure to the threat of impending tariffs. The imposition of tariffs after decades of free trade in energy across North America is expected to create legal uncertainty in contractual obligations related to the payment of tariffs and reporting requirements. The current US import duties on crude are set at 5.25¢/bl and 10.5¢/bl, depending on crude quality. The administration has said the new tariff would be based on the value of the commodity — without specifying how that will be calculated and at what specific point during the transportation process. US government agencies are not expected to clarify the implementation details until Trump's executive order on tariffs goes into effect. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ eight agree to boost output from April


03/03/25
03/03/25

Opec+ eight agree to boost output from April

London, 3 March (Argus) — Opec+ members have agreed to proceed with a plan to start increasing crude output starting in April. The eight Opec+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — are to go ahead with their existing plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" output cuts over an 18-month period from April. The plan also includes a 300,000 b/d increase in the UAE's production target, which will be phased in over the same 18-month period. In a statement late today, Opec said the decision took into account "healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook." If implemented fully, the plan would see the production targets of the eight members rise by an average of 137,000 b/d each month up to September 2026. But the group once again emphasised that the return of the cut production would be "gradual and flexible" and "adaptable to evolving conditions". This leaves them room to pause or reverse their unwinding "subject to market conditions". The decision comes after US president Donald Trump in January called on the alliance to "bring down the cost of oil" — something it could probably do by raising production. But the market faces an array of uncertainties, including the impact of Trump's tariff plans as well as his efforts to curtail Iran's and Venezuela's oil exports. Opec also said that members that are required to compensate for past overproduction would frontload their plans. If implemented, this would offset some of the group's rise in output from April. Opec said the group's overproducers would submit updated compensation plans by 17 March and make this publicly available. By Gavin Attridge and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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