Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

Trump tariffs to hit Canada, Mexico, China on 1 Feb

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petroleum coke
  • 31/01/25

President Donald Trump will proceed with plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10pc on imports from China on 1 February, the White House said today.

The White House pushed back on reports that the tariffs would be delayed and declined to confirm whether Trump made a decision on whether to exclude Canadian and Mexican crude from the tariffs.

"Those tariffs will be for public consumption in about 24 hours tomorrow, so you can read them then," the White House said.

The looming face-off on tariffs has unnerved US oil producers and refiners, which are warning of severe impacts to the integrated North American energy markets if taxes are imposed on flows from Canada and Mexico. Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute has lobbied the administration to exclude crude from the planned tariffs.

Trump on Thursday acknowledged a debate over the application of tariffs to oil but said he had yet to make a decision on exemptions.

The White House dismissed concerns about potential inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs. "Americans who are concerned about increased prices should look at what President Trump did in his first term," it said.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau reiterated today that Ottawa would retaliate against US tariffs.

Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Canadian producers have much less flexibility, as more than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US.

Canadian crude that flows through the US for export from Gulf coast ports would be exempt from tariffs under current trade rules, providing another potential outlet for Alberta producers — unless Trump's potential executive action on Canada tariffs eliminates that loophole.

Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets.

New York Harbor spot market gasoline prices are around $2/USG, meaning a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports could up that price by as much as 50¢/USG. This could prompt buyers in New England or other US east coast markets to look to other supply options. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America.

US refiner Valero said that the tariffs could cause a 10pc cut in refinery runs depending on how the tariffs are implemented and how long they last.

The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term.

The US is a net gas importer from Canada, with gross imports of 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The US' Canadian imports far exceeded the 2.63 Bcf/d it delivered across its northern border over the same period, EIA data show.

Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

04/03/25

US tariffs could crash auto industry: Ontario

US tariffs could crash auto industry: Ontario

Calgary, 4 March (Argus) — The tightly-intertwined US and Canadian auto manufacturing industry could grind to a halt in as little as 10 days due to US tariffs, according to Ontario premier Doug Ford. Raw materials and partially assembled vehicle components can cross the US-Canadian border between manufacturing plants as many as eight times before becoming a finished vehicle, Ford said today. But the 25pc tariffs the US imposed on most Canadian and Mexican goods effective today will add costs and disrupt supply chains. Canada and the US could have combined efforts to make the two countries the safest and secure, Ford said, but "... unfortunately, one man, president Trump has chosen chaos instead." Ontario, Canada's largest province by population and a major vehicle manufacturing hub, may also cut nickel exports to the US, Ford said, and may put a 25pc surcharge onto electricity flows into New York, Minnesota and Michigan if the tariffs persist. Canada supplied about 46pc of US nickel from 2019-2022 according to the US Geological Survey, and nearly 36TWh of electric power to the US. Ontario is also banning US companies from government contracts, including cancelling a $100mn contract with Elon Musk's Starlink internet services. Ford also directed the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) to remove US products from its store shelves, meaning other retailers, bars and restaurants will also be unable to restock American goods. The LCBO is the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world, according to Ford, selling nearly C$1bn in products, including 3,600 products from 35 US states. Ontario's action comes after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Canada's retaliation of 25pc tariffs on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days' time. Canadian energy exports to the US are subject to a lower 10pc tariff. Alberta premier Danielle Smith called the US tariffs "both foolish and a failure in every regard." She called on her Canadian peers to fast-track the construction of dozens of resource projects to help relieve the country's dependence on the US for sales. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Morocco’s sulacid imports hit three-year highs in 2024


04/03/25
04/03/25

Morocco’s sulacid imports hit three-year highs in 2024

London, 4 March (Argus) — Morocco's sulphuric acid imports reached 2.01mn t in 2024, at a three-year high, as two new sulphur burners that came on line at OCP's Jorf Lasfar hub in 2024 supported sulphuric acid intake, customs data showed. The rise in sulphuric acid imports also reflects firm demand for processed phosphate fertilizers from key end-users, which has resulted in strong demand for raw materials such as sulphuric acid. Nearly 50pc of the acid which arrived in Morocco was supplied by China and countries in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region, with the latter shipping record sulphuric acid volumes to Morocco. China shipped 424,000t of acid in 2024, largely unchanged on 2023, but nearly half the volume delivered when compared with 2021 and 2022. Italian deliveries to Morocco rose to a record high of 264,000t, compared with 19,000t in 2023, with some of the volumes understood to be secured under a long term supply contract. Bulgaria supplied 227,000t of acid in 2024, from 19,000t last year, while Turkey shipped 207,400t of acid, up from 37,000t last year. Spanish acid deliveries came to 198,000t in 2024, the highest level shipped since 2021, prior to when OCP paused sulphuric acid buying. Northwest European countries shipped around 430,000t acid in 2024, more than double the volumes delivered on the prior year. Sulphuric acid intake in 2025 is expected to decline on the year — with import estimates ranging from 1-1.1mn t — as the latest sulphur burner commissioned by OCP ramps up in capacity, thus favouring sulphur intake instead. By Lili Minton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US sets 3 April for Chevron's Venezuela exit


04/03/25
04/03/25

US sets 3 April for Chevron's Venezuela exit

Washington, 4 March (Argus) — Chevron has until 3 April to wind down its crude production and exports in Venezuela, according to new guidance that the US Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm issued today. US president Donald Trump on 26 February said he would not extend a sanctions waiver that allowed Chevron to lift crude cargoes from its joint venture with Venezuelan state-owned PdV. Chevron resumed its operations in Venezuela in November 2022 and gradually increased production there, becoming the sole importer of Venezuelan crude into the US — at a pace of 231,000 b/d last year, according to US Energy Information Administration data. "We are aware of the president's directive and will abide by any direction given by the US Treasury Department to implement that directive," Chevron said, adding that it "conducts its business in Venezuela in compliance with all laws and regulations, including the sanctions framework provided by US government." Venezuelan crude imports into the US are coming to a halt while Canadian heavy crude imports by pipeline have become subject to a 10pc import tax from 4 March. Today's guidance from Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control does not address the status of other exceptions from Venezuela sanctions granted to dozens of other companies in 2022-2024 to allow them to load crude and other energy commodities from PdV. Some of those crude cargoes ended up delivered to ports in Spain and Italy in the past two years. Independent refiners in China are the primary customers for Venezuelan Merey crude, imported through a network of ships, agents and brokers established to circumvent US sanctions. The scheme resulted in significant discounts for Chinese buyers of Merey, which traded at discounts ranging from $6.50-7/bl against May Ice Brent, for March arrival. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs 'very dumb thing to do’: Trudeau


04/03/25
04/03/25

US tariffs 'very dumb thing to do’: Trudeau

Calgary, 4 March (Argus) — A trade war sparked by US president Donald Trump is ill-conceived and will put American jobs at risk, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said today. "Now it's not in my habit to agree with the Wall Street Journal , but Donald, they point out that even though you're a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do," Trudeau said Tuesday in Ottawa. US president Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian imports effective 12:01am ET on Tuesday , including 10pc on Canadian energy and 25pc on non-energy goods from Canada. A 25pc tariff was also placed on all imports from Mexico while an existing US tariff on goods from China was doubled to 20pc. Canada in turn retaliated with a 25pc tariff on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days. China imposed new tariffs on the US while Mexico is planning a retaliatory measures of its own. "They've chosen to sabotage their own agenda that was supposed to usher in a new golden age for the United States," Trudeau said. The trade war comes after Canada followed through on its border commitments and worked collaboratively with the US, he said. "To my fellow Canadians, I won't sugarcoat it, this is going to be tough," Trudeau said. "We're insulted, we're angry, but we're Canadian, which means we're going to stand up for each other. We're going to fight, and we're going to win." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Atlanta Fed model sees 2.8pc US 1Q GDP drop


04/03/25
04/03/25

Atlanta Fed model sees 2.8pc US 1Q GDP drop

Houston, 4 March (Argus) — A closely watched GDP forecasting model published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates US gross domestic product (GDP) is on track to contract by an annualized 2.8pc in the first quarter of 2025. The latest estimate published Monday was down from a 1.5pc first quarter decline published on 28 February. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its "advance" estimate, the first of three, on first quarter GDP growth on 30 April. The forecast for contraction comes as President Donald Trump has implemented or increased tariffs on major allies Canada, Mexico and the EU, as well as adversaries like China, begun mass layoffs in the federal government and frozen federal funding to many agencies. The moves are causing consumers and businesses to turn cautious as they evaluate the potential outcomes and threaten to upend supply chains and spur inflation. US GDP expanded at an annual 2.3pc in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1pc in the third quarter. GDP last contracted in the first quarter of 2022, falling by 1pc, after contracting by 28pc in the second quarter of 2020 during the brief Covid-19-induced recession. A third, final estimate for fourth quarter GDP is due out on 27 March. The latest GDPNow estimate was updated Monday after releases from the Institute for Supply Management and the US Census Bureau prompted the model to downgrade estimates for personal consumption and fixed investment for the quarter. The GDPNow model "mimics" the models used by the BEA to estimate GDP growth, and aggregates statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. The latest GDPNow forecast is usually released hours after a report on a subcomponent is released, which usually comes every three to five days. Upcoming reports that will be taken into consideration by GDPNow include international trade, retail sales, housing starts, industrial production and construction spending. The last GDPNow forecast will come the day of the last input report before the advance GDP data is released in April. The GDPNow forecast for the first quarter fell to a contraction of 1.5pc on 28 February, on weak consumer spending and exports data, from a prior forecast for growth of 2.3pc two days earlier. The Atlanta Fed says since it started tracking GDP growth with versions of the GDPNow model in 2011, the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts has been 0.77 percentage points. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more