Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

Spanish Market: Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Oil products
10/02/25

Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices.

This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices.

The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 February survey.

It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in December, marking five months of declines in the past six months.

Mexican core inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc from 5.95pc the previous month.

Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said Banorte.

Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration. Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc.

Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from 6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual inflation back above 4pc.

The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual inflation the previous month.

Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices.

Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December.

Monetary policy

The January inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc.

The 4-1 decision marked an acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts.

In board comments with the announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic high.

Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings.

By James Young

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08/05/25

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK

Washington, 8 May (Argus) — The US will carve out import quotas for UK-produced cars and, eventually, reduce tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, under a preliminary deal US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced today. The Trump administration will allow UK car manufacturers to export 100,000 cars to the US at a 10pc tariff rate, instead of the 25pc tariff to which all foreign auto imports are subject. The US and the UK will negotiate a "trading union" on steel and aluminum that will harmonize supply chains, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. The US commended the UK government on taking control of Chinese-owned steelmaker British Steel last month. As a result of that action, under yet to be negotiated arrangements, the US would reconsider the UK's inclusion in its 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House said. Starmer, speaking after the ceremony, told reporters that US tariffs on the UK-sourced steel and aluminum would, in fact, fall to zero. Trump announced the deal during a ceremony at the White House, with Starmer phoning in. The two leaders suggested that their preliminary deal was as significant as the end of World War II in Europe, 80 years ago. But that deal, which Trump described as "full and comprehensive" hours before its announcement is anything but that. Under the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal", the US will maintain the 10pc baseline tariff on nearly all imports from the UK that went into effect on 5 April, Trump said. The UK, Trump said, would lower the effective rate on US imports to 1.8pc from 5.1pc. The actual details of the agreement are yet to be negotiated. "The final deal is being written up" in the coming weeks, Trump said, adding that it was "very conclusive". Boeing, beef and biofuel The UK would commit to buying $10bn worth of Boeing airplanes, Trump said. He described the UK market as "closed" to US beef, ethanol and many other products, and said that the UK agreed to open its agricultural markets as a result of his deal. US ethanol exports to the UK, in fact, rose by 23pc year-on-year in March. Under the deal, the UK would expand market access to US ethanol, creating $500mn more in US exports, the White House said. The UK will reduce to zero the tariff on US-sourced ethanol, the UK Department of Business said, adding that "it is used to produce beer". Trump previewed the preliminary deal with the UK as the first of the many trade agreements the US administration is negotiating with many other countries. Trump contended today that there are trade talks underway with the EU and expressed confidence that the US-China trade discussions expected over the weekend would produce results. But Trump added that he will not lower the high tariffs on imports from nearly every US trade partner he imposed last month and described the UK's 10pc tariff rate as a favor to that country. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sonatrach Augusta refinery restart extends into May

08/05/25

Sonatrach Augusta refinery restart extends into May

Barcelona, 8 May (Argus) — Crude deliveries to Algerian state-owned Sonatrach's 198,000 b/d Augusta refinery in Italy were higher in April, but it appears a full restart from planned works will take longer than initially expected. Crude deliveries last month were around 70,000 b/d, up from 20,000 b/d in March. Receipts averaged 95,000 b/d in January-April, down from 160,000 b/d overall in 2024. The refinery has been under a planned five-year maintenance shutdown since the end of January, the first turnaround since shortly after Sonatrach bought the plant from ExxonMobil in 2019. Sonatrach initially said the facility would be back online by 30 April, with units restarting in two phases. But the company in an updated note to local authorities said an atmospheric distillation unit, propane deasphalter, hydro-desulphuriser, propane splitter and other secondary units would potentially flare on restart up to 31 May. One of these segments is the butamer unit, which caught fire in April . It is unclear if the fire added to the length of the overall stoppage. Sonatrach has not replied to queries on the matter. It was anticipated the turnaround would be a little quicker than in 2019 (see chart), but the two periods of maintenance now appear to be roughly similar. Crude delivery last month included over 45,000 b/d of Saudi Arab Light, 15,000 b/d of Kazakh Kebco and over 5,000 b/d of Algerian Saharan Blend. Argus assessed these at a weighted average gravity of 33.7°API and 1.5pc sulphur content, compared with 36.5°API and 0.9pc sulphur in February, before receipts all but stopped for the works. Receipts averaged 34.7°API and 1.2pc sulphur in January-April, compared with 35.2°API and 0.9pc sulphur overall in 2024. The pace of delivery in May is slow. Around 750,000 bl of Arab Light has discharged but no tankers are signalling arrival. By Adam Porter Augusta crude receipts mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India-UK FTA cuts tariffs on Indian auto imports

08/05/25

India-UK FTA cuts tariffs on Indian auto imports

Mumbai, 8 May (Argus) — The free trade agreement (FTA) finalised between India and the UK early on 6 May will cut tariffs on cars imported from the UK to 10pc from over 100pc earlier under a quota. The landmark FTA follows several rounds of negotiations between India and the UK that were first launched in January 2022. The import duty cuts are expected to make UK-manufactured cars more affordable for Indian consumers. Cosmetics, whisky and gin exports from the UK will also benefit from tariff reduction, the UK government said. Tariffs will also be eliminated on 99pc of Indian goods imported into the UK. This is likely to boost exports of auto parts and other goods such as textiles, footwear and gems and jewellery to the UK, according to the Indian government. Indian exported $21.2bn worth of auto components in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, 32pc of which went to Europe, government data show. "The FTA will be integral in opening new growth avenues and enhancing export potential for auto component and electric vehicle (EV) materials manufacturers," Indian firm Epsilon Carbon managing director Vikram Handa said. Total trade in goods and services between India and the UK stood at £42.6bn ($56.7bn) in 2024. After the FTA, bilateral trade is expected to increase by £25.5bn each year, according to the UK government. Non-ferrous metals, metal ores and scrap and mechanical power generators were among the top exported goods from the UK to India last year. For India, refined oil, clothing and telecoms and pharmaceutical products accounted for a major share of exports to the UK. Exports of iron and steel products from India to the UK rose by nearly 70pc on the year to £489.2mn in 2024, UK government data show. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed holds rate, awaits 'clarity' on tariffs: Update

07/05/25

US Fed holds rate, awaits 'clarity' on tariffs: Update

Adds Powell comments, CME, GDP data. Houston, 7 May (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers kept their target interest rate flat today for a third time this year, noting that economic "uncertainty" has increased, while signaling they would continue to monitor the impacts of the new US administration's policies before adjusting monetary policy. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. The Fed has held the target rate unchanged this year after three rate cuts late last year lowered the target rate by 100 basis points from a two-decade high of 5.25-5.5pc after the Fed sharply hiked rates from near zero to battle inflation that topped 9pc in 2022 during the overheated recovery from the Covid-19 slump. "If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment," Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the decision. "All of these policies are still evolving however, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain." Powell also noted that "we are entering a new phase where the administration is entering into beginning talks with a number of our important trading partners and that has the potential to change the picture materially." US economic growth contracted by an annual 0.3pc in the first quarter of 2025 following 2.4pc growth in the fourth quarter. It was the first quarter of negative growth in three years and raised concerns that the US may be entering a recession amid a raft of poor consumer and business confidence surveys. But Powell pointed out that the driver of the first-quarter contraction was a "distortion" caused by a spike in imports, which subtracts from GDP growth, as businesses stocked up on inventory from abroad to get ahead of the tariff impacts. Overall, he said, "the economy is growing at a solid pace, the labor market appears to be solid. Inflation is running a bit above 2pc. So it's an economy that's been resilient and in good shape." The Fed earlier penciled in two likely quarter point rate cuts this year, but the administration of President Donald Trump's chaotic rolling out of tariff and federal spending policies has continued to push back the likelihood of cuts to the federal funds rate, as measured by the CME's FedWatch tool, to the back half of the year. FedWatch, after Wednesday's decision, sees a 23.3pc probability of a quarter point cut at the June Fed meeting, down from 30.5pc Tuesday. Odds of a quarter point cut in July were little changed at 57pc from the prior day. "Ultimately we think our policy rate is in a good place to stay as we await further clarity on tariffs and ultimately their implications for the economy," Powell said. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

07/05/25

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

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