Japan’s coastal shipping volumes fall in 2024

Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal, LPG, Metals, Oil products
26/02/25

Volumes transported on coastal vessels in Japan fell in 2024 because of a decline in shipments of automobiles, cement and oil and chemical products.

Shipping volumes on cargo ships in the domestic coastal market fell by 2.8pc on the year to around 198mn t in 2024, according to data from the Japan Federation of Coastal Shipping Associations.

The decline partly reflected a drop in vehicle output in the wake of scandals over faulty safety data. Shipping volumes in the automobile sector totalled 44mn t last year, down by 11pc from 2023. Transportation of cement and feedstock materials, such as limestone, fell by 8pc to 25mn t and by 3pc to 45.6mn t respectively over the same period.

But deliveries of coal and coke rose by 12pc to 18.7mn t, as coal demand from the power sector rebounded after maintenance work a year earlier. Transportation volumes of steel products increased by 4.3pc to 36.4mn t over the period.

Operations of coastal tankers also slowed last year. A series of technical problems at domestic refiners created alternative demand for refined products, which would typically lead to an increase in coastal shipping. But the longer voyages needed to deliver such products to distant refineries resulted in a drop in shipping utilisation as a whole, the association said.

Shipments of lighter oil products, such as gasoline, kerosine, jet fuel and diesel, fell by 2pc on the year to 58.7mn kl (1mn b/d) in 2024. Volumes fell as high prices for gasoline and kerosine capped demand for the fuels, despite government subsidies.

An expansion of renewable energy also weighed on oil demand. Tanker deliveries of fuel oil fell by 10pc to 22.5mn kl, pressured by lower demand from the power sector.

Shipments of chemical products dropped by 8pc to 7.2mn kl last year, while deliveries of high-pressured liquids such as LPG and vinyl chloride monomer remained steady at around 6mn t.

The survey covered 58 operators that together account for more than 80pc of total coastal shipping volumes, the association said.

By Motoko Hasegawa

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02/04/25

Q&A: LGE still pushing EU for RLG concessions

London, 2 April (Argus) — European LPG association Liquid Gas Europe (LGE) continues to push to secure EU and member state support for renewable liquid gases (RLG) such as bioLPG and renewable DME (rDME) while protecting customers of LPG and autogas from policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels. Argus' Dafydd ab Iago and Matt Scotland spoke to LGE general manager Ewa Abramiuk-Lete: What is the EU's latest position on CO2-neutral fuels in road transport? The European Commission's 2023 regulation proposes a framework for registering vehicles after 2035 that operate solely on CO2-neutral fuels in accordance with EU law and climate neutrality objectives. Since then, the commission has been tasked with developing a definition of what CO2-neutral fuels are, but no official information has been released yet. Meanwhile, as part of the broader fuels industry, we've collaborated in a technical group to formulate a definition that encompasses all renewable fuels in line with the EU's renewable energy directive [RED III]. The group's report frequently makes reference to renewable LPG and DME. But will the commission consider anything other than e-fuels? Certain EU commissioners and commission president Ursula von der Leyen have emphasised the need for technological neutrality when revising CO2 standards for cars. The devil is in the details. At this point, there is talk, but we've yet to see any concrete proposals or indications from the commission. We are closely monitoring the current developments in the commission, primarily to determine whether the concept of technological neutrality is being practically implemented and if there is potential for more than just e-fuels and hydrogen. But the push for this concept should originate from member states. Failing to broaden the scope would be a missed opportunity to support a broader range of cost-effective, immediately deployable renewable solutions like RLGs and rDME. When could we find out what fuels are included? A decision may come later this year. Any initiative to reopen or amend EU legislation must come from the commission. Recent intense discussions in the European Parliament about the state of the automotive sector, as well as growing pressure from member states, could be enough to persuade the commission to act. What has been the reaction to the EU's clean industrial deal and state aid rules? We are still reviewing the new state aid proposals. At first glance, RLGs seem to be included. The commission indicates that all fuels compliant with [RED III] — such as bioLPG, biomethane and rDME — are eligible for support. Fossil fuels are generally excluded, with limited exceptions for natural gas under strict conditions. The justification for this is that natural gas is deemed cleaner than more polluting alternatives — an argument that equally applies to LPG. In which direction is the EU discussion on energy taxation heading? The European Council is still finalising the energy taxation directive. The matter lies with EU member states, which must vote unanimously on energy taxation. Progress is being made slowly. The current Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU will need to determine the next steps on critical issues before a consensus can be reached. For LPG, what is at stake is whether RLGs are fairly treated under the new tax framework — and whether the directive allows for differentiation between renewable and conventional fuels, and between business and non-business uses. How will the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD) affect LPG? A lot is quite technical, but also vital for the sector. One key issue is the inconsistent implementation of the EPBD across EU member states. Guidance documents provide definitions of what constitutes a fossil fuel boiler, which is essential as several member states are preparing to phase out such boilers between 2035 and 2040. A significant question [is whether there will be] recognition of renewable-ready or renewable-compatible boilers, particularly those using bioLPG or rDME. We are analysing how member states are interpreting and implementing these provisions. In Italy, there is strong support for the continued use of bioLPG in heating, but this level of recognition varies significantly between member states. What is the latest on the EU's proposed restrictions on PFAS ? The European Chemicals Agency is conducting a socio-economic assessment as part of the EU's proposed restriction on PFAS under Reach, covering many industrial uses. In the LPG sector, PFAS — particularly fluoropolymers such as PTFE — play a critical role in cylinders, tanks and valves. These materials are essential for preventing leaks in systems that store and transport flammable gases. Some alternatives are being tested — including PFAS-free sealing techniques used by certain companies in Spain — but they are not yet widely adopted or validated across the EU. Promising developments are being made but require further testing to meet safety standards. Your recent RLG Outlook models European RLG output reaching 27.4mn t/yr by 2050 under the policy conditions. Is that not too optimistic given limited progress in the past two years and the dissolution of rDME joint venture Dimeta? While the dissolution of Dimeta was a setback, it does not change the long-term outlook for rDME. Our 2050 modelling shows that Europe could produce up to 27.4mn t/yr of renewable LPG equivalent, of which up to 40pc could come from rDME. The industry continues to see strong potential in rDME, and essential work is progressing on technical standardisation, and safety and blending rules. Our analysis also indicates that sustainable feedstocks are sufficient to fulfil this production potential. Out of 22 production pathways, we examined nine in detail based on a multi-criteria analysis. Only two are fully commercialised at present. This is why we are advocating for co-ordinated policy action — to accelerate commercialisation and mitigate investment risks. Will rDME be a core focus at LGE's Congress in Katowice over 20-22 May? RDME will be one of many key topics at the congress. The event will take place in Poland, drawing strong participation from central and eastern European markets, as well as from further afield, with delegates expected from the US, South America, Africa, Australia and Asia. [LGE] plans to present the RLG Outlook and explore opportunities for scaling up RLG production. In addition, sessions will focus on the role of LPG in agriculture, transport and heating — all critical sectors for the energy transition. Central Europe and Poland will be a core point of discussion, given its significant autogas market and ongoing energy security challenges. We will also address the impact of Russian sanctions on the Polish LPG market, with high-level representatives from the Polish presidency and industry ministry in attendance. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's IOC cuts jet fuel prices by 6pc for April

02/04/25

India's IOC cuts jet fuel prices by 6pc for April

Mumbai, 2 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled refiner IOC has reduced jet fuel prices by 6pc effective from 1 April. IOC cut prices in Mumbai, capital New Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai by 6pc from a month earlier. Prices vary from state to state depending on local taxes. Asian jet fuel margins — or Singapore jet fuel swaps against Dubai crude values — averaged $13.04/bl in March, down from $15.23/bl in February. India's jet fuel consumption stood at 203,100 b/d in March, up by 5pc on the year, provisional data from the oil ministry show. By Roshni Devi Jet fuel prices in India Rupees/kl City Apr-25 Mar-25 m-o-m % Delhi 89,441.18 95,311.72 -6 Kolkata 91,921.00 97,588.66 -6 Mumbai 83,575.42 89,070.03 -6 Chennai 92,503.80 98,567.90 -6 Source: IOC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

01/04/25

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

Washington, 1 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump plans to announce a sweeping batch of tariffs on Wednesday afternoon that will take effect "immediately", the White House said today. Trump will unveil his much anticipated tariff decision Wednesday at 4pm ET during a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden. While the administration has announced the effective date, there is little clarity on what goods will face tariffs at what rates and against which countries, leaving the government agencies that will be tasked with enforcing new tariffs largely in the dark. "The president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower," the White House said today, brushing off criticism from economists, industry groups and investors. Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in March as businesses braced for Trump's tariff threats. Trump has previewed or announced multiple tariff actions since taking office. The barriers in place now include a 20pc tariff on all imports from China, in effect since 4 March, and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum, in effect since 12 March. A 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, is scheduled to go into effect on 3 April, the White House confirmed today. Trump and his advisers have previewed two possible courses of action for 2 April. Trump has suggested that all major US trading partners are likely to see a broad increase in tariffs in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit and to raise more revenue for the US federal budget. But Trump separately has talked about the need for "reciprocal tariffs", contending that most foreign countries typically charge higher rates of tariffs on US exports than the US applies to imports from those countries. In that scenario, high tariffs become a negotiating tool to bring down alleged foreign barriers to US exports. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday night that the second course is the one Trump is more likely to take. Trump will announce "reciprocal tariffs" and "everyone will have the opportunity to lower their tariffs, lower their non-tariff barriers, stop the currency manipulation" and "make the global trading system fair for American workers again", Bessent said. But the White House insisted today that the new tariffs will not be a negotiating tool. Trump is "always up for a good negotiation, but he is very much focused on fixing the wrongs of the past and showing that American workers have a fair shake", the White House said. Trump's words and actions already have drawn retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, and the EU is preparing to implement its first batch of counter-tariffs in April. Trump, for now, has deferred his tariff plans for imported Canadian and Mexican oil and other energy commodities. But the US oil and gas sector, which depends on pipelines and foreign-flagged vessels to transport its crude, natural gas, refined products and LNG, will feel the effects of tariffs on imported steel and proposed fees on Chinese-made and owned vessels calling at US ports. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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