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US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

  • Spanish Market: Oil products
  • 13/03/25

The uncertainty around US tariffs could weigh on demand for finished lubricant and base oil, trade body ILMA told Argus.

US President Donald Trump has decreed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, a key import source for these materials used in auto manufacturing. The US sources about 70pc of its aluminium imports and around 23pc of its steel imports from its northern neighbour.

ILMA chief executive Holly Alfano said the White House recognises that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs "creates a challenging business environment".

"A slowdown in auto sales and production due to tariffs could lead to reduced demand for these products," Alfano told Argus. "Manufacturers may postpone investments or expansion plans due to unpredictable costs and market conditions," she said. "If vehicle prices rise due to increased production costs, consumer demand may decline, leading to further reductions in automotive output and associated lubricant consumption."

Automotive vehicle production forecasts have fallen to 15.5mn in 2025 since the tariff announcement, down by 250,000 vehicles from the prior estimate by AutoForecast Solutions. This would put output broadly in line with 2024 , stifling growth in finished lubricant demand. US government data show car sales fell by 5pc in 2024, and finished lubricant sales dropped 6pc over the same period.

Although lubricant sales are not entirely correlated with new car sales, Alfano noted the auto sector is "a significant consumer of finished lubricants".

As it stands the tariffs on steel and aluminium will not now be implemented until 2 April. The White House has said this is to "allow for the flow of parts and sub assembly products into America, to allow American car manufacturers to continue building cars." The US administration is scheduled to host Canadian and Ontario officials today to discuss a possible easing in tariffs.

If these talks yield no progress, and if a month is insufficient for supply chains to be reorganised, the tariffs could stunt automotive manufacturing and in turn lubricants needed for these new vehicles. Ontario premier Doug Ford has cautioned the 25pc tariffs could halt the auto manufacturing industry in as little as 10 days.

While the US is self-sufficient in terms of its Group II base oils, it is a net importer of Group III, with only 4pc nameplate capacity, and both are key to automotive lubricant production. The US is an importer of Canadian Group III base oils from Petro-Canada's 4,000 b/d plant in Mississauga, Ontario.


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18/03/25

India's base oil imports rise in 2024

India's base oil imports rise in 2024

Singapore, 18 March (Argus) — India's base oil imports rose by 15pc on the year to 2.71mn t in 2024, data from GTT show. Lower domestic production, because of plant maintenance, and higher finished lubricant consumption boosted imports in 2024. Consumption of lubricant and grease increased by 8pc on the year to 4.44mn t in 2024, oil ministry data show. India's base oil imports fell by 19pc on the year to 201,734t in December 2024. Lower-than-expected demand at the end of the year, owing to slowing economic growth in India, likely caused the decline. Base oil imports in December were largely stable as compared with the previous month. South Korea remains the top supplier to India, with imports exceeding 1.15mn t in 2024, a 27pc increase from the previous year. But imports from South Korea dropped by 28pc on the year to 82,989t in December because of reduced supply, with a key refiner having maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2024. Imports from Singapore and Taiwan increased by 25pc and 28pc respectively in 2024. Asian suppliers are diverting supply to other markets with falling demand from China. The Mideast Gulf remains a key supply region, supplying close to a quarter of India's imports in 2024. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among top suppliers. By Chng Li Li India base oils imports unit Dec'24 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Jan-Dec 24 y-o-y ± % South Korea 82,989 -9.7 -27.5 1,150,234 27.1 Singapore 41,656 129.7 69.4 399,599 25.1 Saudi Arabia 25,738 18.7 20.1 251,387 -9.0 UAE 17,198 -38.2 -30.3 266,178 18.1 Taiwan 14,221 9.4 213.7 115,877 28.0 Monthly total 201,734 -0.4 -18.8 2,713,623 14.6 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump set to meet with oil, gas executives


17/03/25
17/03/25

Trump set to meet with oil, gas executives

Washington, 17 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet this week with US oil and gas executives to discuss policies that would help achieve "energy dominance", according to an industry group participating in the meeting. Trump and his team are scheduled to meet on Wednesday with executives that serve on the leadership committee of the American Petroleum Institute (API) and staff from the influential industry group, API said. Trump has enjoyed close ties with many oil executives, who have supported his regulatory initiatives and tax cuts, even as his tariff policies have raised concerns among some industry officials. "We appreciate the opportunity to discuss how American oil and natural gas are driving economic growth, strengthening our national security and supporting consumers with the President and his team," API said. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The upcoming meeting is set to broadly focus on how to achieve Trump's goal for "energy dominance". API last year released a detailed policy roadmap, with plans to scrap regulations that would require more electric vehicles, restart licensing of US LNG export facilities, expand offshore oil and gas leasing, repeal a new $900/t fee on methane leaks, expedite permitting and e retain corporate tax cuts from 2017. The Trump administration has already accomplished some of those policies, and is starting work on others. The White House sees cutting energy prices through deregulation and expanded leasing as part of its strategy to ease inflation. Trump last week said he was "very happy" with oil prices at $65/bl, while US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has set a target of $50/bl. But producers would have to crimp production in the Permian basin at that price, former Pioneer Natural Resources chief executive Scott Sheffield said last week. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK tanker collision spilt 17,500 bl of jet fuel


17/03/25
17/03/25

UK tanker collision spilt 17,500 bl of jet fuel

London, 17 March (Argus) — A collision earlier this month between a cargo ship and an oil tanker in the UK North Sea released less than 10pc of the latter's cargo, its management company said. The Stena Immaculate was at anchor carrying 220,000 bl of jet fuel for the US military when it was hit by the Solong on 10 March. Both ships caught fire, and one mariner remains unaccounted for and is presumed dead. US-based management company Crowley said 17,500 bl of jet fuel were lost. It said the actions of the crew prevented any further damage. There have been no oil slick sightings, suggesting all that entered the water was burned off, although the UK coastguard said plastic nurdles spotted south of the accident probably entered the water at the time of the collision. A nurdle clean-up operation is under way. The fires took most of the week to bring under control. The UK marine accident investigation body has opened an investigation, and UK police have charged the Solong's captain with gross negligence manslaughter. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German gasoil demand rises but remains weak


17/03/25
17/03/25

German gasoil demand rises but remains weak

Hamburg, 17 March (Argus) — Wholesale diesel and heating oil sales in Germany continue to rise this year and supply is ample, particularly along the Rhine river. But demand remains weak compared with this time last year making imports uneconomical. Diesel demand is rising seasonally because of warmer temperatures and an associated uptick in agriculture and construction activity. Heating oil demand is being boosted by falling prices, which are as low as they were in December even with the increased German greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota and CO2 levy in place since the turn of the year. In the Rhine areas of western and southwestern Germany, the price of heating oil and diesel is lower than it is in northern, eastern and the southeastern Bavaria regions. This suggests that, partly because of ample refinery production in the west, available product exceeds current demand. Low Rhine water levels since the beginning of March, which reduce barge loadings upstream from Kaub, have not led to shortages. Another indication of low import demand is that freight rates have risen only slightly despite the low water levels and some canal closures. Argus ' calculations show spot imports from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub along the Rhine would currently be loss-making. Maintenance work at the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery north of Munich, which started in early March, is leading to the highest regional prices in Germany. Traded spot volumes are correspondingly low. Gasoil imports by sea cargo into northern Germany are at their lowest level in at least two years. This could contribute to the price in northern and eastern Germany being somewhat higher than in the west and southwest. German diesel demand in 2025 remains below average in a multi-year comparison. The main reason for this is declining industrial production and a resulting decrease in freight activity. The German truck toll index fell to its lowest February value in eight years. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump actions fuel trading uncertainty


17/03/25
17/03/25

Trump actions fuel trading uncertainty

Boca Raton, 17 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's unpredictable actions on tariffs, foreign affairs and the economy are creating volatility in futures markets at a time of increased concerns about the stability of investments made in the US. Trump has roiled global markets by announcing — and sometimes retracting the same day — tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and other trading partners without offering a clear explanation of what outcome he hopes to achieve. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX volatility index, which uses options trades to track the likelihood of major stock market swings, has nearly doubled since Trump took office and hit a seven-month high last week. The pace and breadth of Trump's agenda are "surprising even his most ardent supporters" and resulted in markets having "mixed feelings" over his policies, Futures Industry Association president Walt Lukken said on 10 March at the International Futures Industry Conference in Boca Raton, Florida. According to a recent survey, the industry group's members identified tariffs as the top policy that could negatively affect markets, Lukken said. Trump's oft-stated desire to annex Greenland and Canada and his willingness to allow carmaker Tesla's chief executive, Elon Musk, to exert vast power in his administration without a clear conflict-of-interest policy have helped rattle investor confidence, European exchange Euronext chief executive Stephane Boujnah said on the sidelines of the conference. US assets could start trading at a discount because of concerns over the rule of law and an "oligarch risk" that usually exists in emerging markets, he said. "One of the features of the emerging market is that you invest, you own something, until the guy with gold who is close to the ruler wants it too," Boujnah said. Traders who in the past might have stayed away from markets during periods of volatility no longer have the "luxury to do that in the world that we live in today", CME Group chief executive Terrence Duffy said. "Globally, it's not going to go away, so it's something we all need to deal with," Duffy said. CME reported record trading volumes for natural gas futures and options in January and February, which company executives have attributed in part to years of growing US energy exports. "As the US continues to both produce and export crude and natural gas at record quantities, putting US physical products on the market, customers are coming to the main market to hedge that exposure," CME commodities global head Derek Sammann said on the sidelines of the conference. Double-edged sword Higher volatility can benefit exchanges, trading platforms and traders because their revenue is often tied to trading volumes. But too much volatility in markets can cause some traders to sit on the sidelines, resulting in increased price spreads between buyers and sellers, trading platform Trading Technologies executive vice-president of futures and options Alun Green said. "We're still in a well-established, well-worked volatile market, but I think that there are some areas where people are not quite as willing to go in and take risks," Green said. Trump's push for an across-the-board cut to regulations and his attempt to wrest control of the independent federal agencies that oversee financial markets could end up causing problems in markets if they eventually result in a market crash, according to some regulators. "I do fear sometimes when we whipsaw too much, that then things can get deregulated too much, and then we create some amount of risk that we then can't handle," US commodities regulator CFTC member Christy Goldsmith Romero, a Democratic appointee, said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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