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US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Metals, Natural gas
  • 19/03/25

Adds Powell comments, economic projections.

Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020.

"Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy."

Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration."

"We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored."

In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents.

Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc.


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21/03/25

Australia's Simcoa may buy carbon credits until 2028

Australia's Simcoa may buy carbon credits until 2028

Sydney, 21 March (Argus) — Australia's silicon producer Simcoa will likely need to buy and surrender Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) until 2028 for safeguard mechanism compliance obligations before it completes a key decarbonisation project, it told Argus today. The project was awarded federal funds on 20 March. Australia's federal Labor government granted Simcoa A$39.8mn ($25mn) under its Powering the Regions Fund (PRF) to expand charcoal production at its Wellesley facility in Western Australia (WA) and remove the use of coal in silicon production. The project is expected to reduce the company's scope 1 emissions by around 90pc, or approximately 100,000 t/yr of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Simcoa is Australia's only silicon manufacturer, which is a key component of solar panels. The funding will help maintain silicon manufacturing capability in the country in addition to cutting emissions, energy minister Chris Bowen said. The company currently uses 35,000 t/yr of metallurgical low ash coal in its operations, and anticipates usage will drop to zero after it doubles its charcoal production capacity by 25,000 t/yr to 50,000 t/yr. The completion date for the expansion is not expected before 2028. The firm may continue to buy [ACCUs] as it must use coal as a reducing agent for part of its production for calendar years 2025-27, or until the expansion project can be commissioned, the company told Argus on 21 March. Simcoa surrendered 22,178 ACCUs in the July 2022-June 2023 compliance year as it reported scope 1 emissions of 122,178t of CO2e with a baseline of 100,000t CO2e at its Kemerton silicon smelter. Figures were lower for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance period, the company said, without disclosing details. Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) will publish 2023-24 safeguard data by 15 April . Simcoa anticipates scope 1 emissions at the Kemerton smelter to be "considerably below" the baseline once the charcoal expansion is completed and could make it eligible to earn and sell safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs), which traded for the first time in late February . "We will take whatever opportunity is available to us," the company said on potentially holding or selling SMCs in future. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada needs more oil pipelines: PM Carney


20/03/25
20/03/25

Canada needs more oil pipelines: PM Carney

Calgary, 20 March (Argus) — Canada needs to build more oil pipelines to reduce its dependence on foreign supplies while opening up new trade corridors for exports, prime minister Mark Carney said today, amid an escalating trade war with the US. "It's about getting things done. It's about getting, yes, getting pipelines built, across this country, so we that can displace imports of foreign oil," Carney said while in Edmonton, Alberta. A US-triggered trade war has sparked an urgent need across Canada to diversify its trading partners and limit the country's reliance on the US. This has lifted public support for getting pipelines and other infrastructure energy projects built. The prime minister envisions the federal government "using all of its power" and new legislation to expedite such projects, adding "additional levers" will be discussed when he meets with provincial premiers on 21 March. "We need to do things that had not been imagined or had not been thought possible, at a speed we haven't seen before," said Carney. "That's the nature of the time." TC Energy's current chief executive along with 13 other executives from the country's largest oil and gas companies urged the federal government this week to declare a "Canadian energy crisis" to expedite infrastructure projects. General election soon Carney is expected to call a general election soon with his Liberal party riding high in the polls. Despite the Liberals' recent track record on energy infrastructure, Carney is looking to appeal to Alberta voters eager for pipelines who typically vote for the rival, pro-oil patch Conservatives. A combined C$280bn ($194bn) of Canadian oil and natural gas projects have been cancelled over the past decade, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Of this, C$164bn in the form of LNG projects, C$63bn in pipeline projects, C$30bn in oil sands projects and C$22bn in refinery projects. TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East pipeline is commonly referenced by industry as a nation-building project that, proposed in 2013, would have supplied Albertan oil to eastern Canada but was abandoned because of changing regulations. There was still no clear indication of when a decision by the federal government could be obtained when TC Energy cancelled it in 2017. Energy East would have piped oil as far east as Irving Oil's 320,000 b/d refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, which relies on foreign imports, while also giving shippers an outlet to export to Europe and beyond. Canada imported 490,000 b/d of crude in 2023, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Of this, 355,000 b/d came from the US, 63,000 b/d from Nigeria and 53,000 b/d from Saudi Arabia. Canada meanwhile produces about 5mn b/d, sending about 80pc of that to the US. Carney's infrastructure push includes the proposed Pathways Alliance project in Alberta, which entails a C$16.5bn carbon capture and storage hub that could remove up to 22mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030. Generally, Carney wants to pursue energy and trade corridors and trade including potentially from Alberta to either the Canada's Arctic coast in Nunavut or to Hudson Bay via Churchill, Manitoba. Or both. The subject of trade and pipelines was front and center during a meeting with Alberta premier Danielle Smith earlier in the day, who has criticized the federal Liberals for years. "Albertans will no longer tolerate the way we've been treated by the federal Liberals over the past 10 years," said Smith in a statement, adding a specific list of demands, including "unfettered oil and gas corridors to the north, east and west". The Nunavut project, called the Grays Bay Road and Port Project, is a proposed deepwater port that would cater to critical mineral exports. The proponent, West Kitikmeot Resources, told Argus earlier this month that it had not yet had discussions with Alberta about developing crude capabilities. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit


20/03/25
20/03/25

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia


20/03/25
20/03/25

Escoamento de soja causa fila de caminhões em Rondônia

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — O tempo de espera para embarque da safra de soja 2024-25 no porto de Porto Velho, em Rondônia, chegou a seis dias nesta semana, de acordo com a Associação dos Produtores de Soja do estado (Aprosoja-RO). A falta de infraestrutura portuária e de armazenagem nas fazendas, aliada ao pico da colheita da oleaginosa nas últimas semanas, aumentou a fila de caminhões para o escoamento das cargas no porto de Porto Velho. "Tivemos uma fila de até 1.200 caminhões no pátio de triagem de Porto Velho, por onde é escoada toda a produção do estado e da região noroeste de Mato Grosso", disse o diretor administrativo da Aprosoja-RO, Marcelo Lucas. As cargas embarcadas seguem pelo Rio Madeira até o porto de Santarém, no Pará, de onde é exportada. A colheita de soja 2024-25 em Rondônia deve atingir 2,4 milhões de toneladas (t), um aumento de 7pc em relação ao ciclo anterior, de acordo com a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). Rondônia não teve dificuldades no escoamento de soja nessa magnitude em anos anteriores, mas, por conta do pico de colheita na safra deste ciclo, há um volume maior a ser transportado em um menor espaço de tempo, segundo a Aprosoja-RO. A Aprosoja-RO também disse que os gargalos logísticos têm causado prejuízos aos produtores, que não conseguem escoar a colheita de suas propriedades. As cargas que conseguem ser embarcadas acabam degradadas por conta das longas tempos de esperas para descarga. Os produtores também estão absorvendo os custos de manter caminhões estacionados em armazéns e portos, elevando os preços do frete de grãos rodoviário a níveis acima do que é tradicionalmente praticado na região, disse a Aprosoja-RO. Na semana encerrada em 13 de março, o frete rodoviário de grãos no corredor Sapezal-Porto Velho atingiu R$235/t, ante R$185/t no mesmo período em 2024. A entidade disse que está trabalhando com o governo do estado para rever a concessão do porto de Porto Velho, permitindo que outras empresas operem. A Aprosoja-RO recebeu relatos de que há espaços ociosos que poderiam estar atendendo aos produtores. O porto de Porto Velho é administrado pela Sociedade de Portos e Hidrovias de Rondônia (Soph), que informou que não administra as filas externas e não tem autoridade na área retroportuária de caminhões aguardando liberação para triagem nos terminais. Por Bruno Castro Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc


20/03/25
20/03/25

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — Brazil's central bank raised its target interest rate by 1 percentage point to 14.25pc amid accelerating inflation in a decelerating — but still heated — economy. The hike in the target rate, announced Wednesday, was the fifth in a row from a cyclical low of 10.5pc at the end of September last year, partly prompted by accelerating depreciation of the currency, the real, to the US dollar. Brazil's annualized inflation hit 5.06pc in February and is poised to keep accelerating. The bank's Focus economic report increased its inflation forecast to 5.7pc for the end-of-year 2025 from 5.5pc in January, when the bank's policy-making committee last met. Brazil's current government has an inflation ceiling goal of 3pc with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it now monitors the goal on a rolling 12-month basis. The bank cited heated economic activity and a strong labor market as factors that have contributed to rising inflation. But the bank forecasts "modest GDP growth" for Brazil of almost 2pc in 2025, down from 3.4pc growth last year. Further tightening will also be linked to global economic uncertainty prompted by US president Donald Trump's aggressive trade and other policies and the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve , according to the bank. Brazil's target interest rate is expected to keep rising at the bank's next meeting in 6-7 May, albeit to "a lesser extent" as the contributing factors are set to moderate, according to the committee. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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