Electricity drove surge in energy demand in 2024: IEA

Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
24/03/25

Electricity demand drove a jump in overall global energy consumption growth in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, energy watchdog the IEA said today.

Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 — higher than the average annual demand increase of 1.3pc between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-base agency's Global Energy Review. Global electricity consumption rose by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures that led to increased cooling demand, growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and from data centres and artificial intelligence, the IEA said.

Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", it said. New renewable power capacity installations reached around 700GW in 2024 — a new high — while renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 40pc of total generation in 2024, it said.

Global gas demand rose by 2.7pc in 2024, with an increase in "fast growing Asian markets", the IEA said. It noted growth of more than 7pc and 10pc in China and India, respectively.

But "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the organisation said. Oil demand rose by 0.8pc — compared with 1.9pc in 2023 — and oil's share of total energy demand fell below 30pc last year "for the first time ever".

A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA said.

The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, half the pace seen in 2023.

"Intense heatwaves" in China and India "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs, the IEA found.

Renewables limit rise in emissions

The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and on demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023.

"Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand", the IEA said. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher in 2024 on the year, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average, it said.

But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA said. Energy-related CO2 emissions still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth, it said.

"The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the IEA said. Emerging and developing economies accounted for more than 80pc of the increase in global energy demand last year, it said.

By Georgia Gratton

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25/03/25

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Energy security is the "big opportunity holistically" of US secretary of state Marco Rubio's planned visit this week to Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname, US special envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said. The island nations that are net importers of crude and other energy products have a chance to "turn the page" to improve energy security and reduce prices, the envoy said today in a state department briefing to press. The trip comes after the US said this week it would impose a 25pc discretionary tariff on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan crude. Several nations in the past received crude from their South American neighbor through its PetroCaribe aid program which is largely defunct, other than shipments to Cuba. Trinidad has also sought to develop cross-border natural gas fields with Venezuela to boost its flagging production, but the US announcement further complicates this plan. "Along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we're deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energize ... those natural gas opportunities," Claver-Carone said. Booming oil producer Guyana in turn has faced a border dispute with Venezuela, and the US hopes to discuss "binding security cooperation" to solve this problem during Rubio's visit. Along with Guyana's neighbor Suriname, which hopes to launch offshore crude production by 2028, the outlook for the region to increase energy production could end its "huge Achilles' heel to its economic development and security," Claver-Carone added. Rubio will also discuss security, including improving conditions in Haiti, illegal migration and arms and drug trafficking during his visits on Wednesday and Thursday. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef

25/03/25

Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef

Sao Paulo, 25 March (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traveled to Japan on Tuesday in search of energy transition agreements and new market opportunities to improve trade relations between the countries. Bilateral Japan-Brazil trade fell to around $11bn in 2024, down from $17bn in 2011, the Brazilian government said. Brazil exported $730mn in goods to Japan in January-February, while importing $995mn from the Asian country in the period, according to Brazil trade ministry data. Exports dropped by almost 13.5pc from a year before in the two-month period, while imports grew by nearly 25pc. "Firstly, we have [a shortfall] to turn around," Lula said. Brazil will also ask Japan to join its growth acceleration plan . He is accompanied by 11 ministers and four members of congress, including senate president Davi Alcolumbre and lower house president Hugo Motta. Ethanol market Brazil aims to sell more ethanol to Japan, as the Asian country expects to increase its ethanol blend to 10pc from 3pc by 2030. "If Japan blends 10pc of ethanol into gasoline, it will be an extraordinary step not only for us to export to them but for them to be able to produce in Brazil," Lula said. Japan received 3.4pc of Brazil's ethanol exports, according to Brazil's development and trade ministry. Cop 30 and energy transition Lula's visit also seeks to attract investment in renewable energy, forest revamps and new donations to the Amazon Fund, as well as a "strong commitment" from Japan at the Cop 30 summit, to be held in Brazil later this year. Brazil aims to export clean fuels to generate power to Japan, as power imports account for more than 80pc of all Japanese power demand and "a large share of it comes from fossil sources," according to the Brazilian foreign relations ministry's Asia and Pacific secretary Eduardo Saboia. Brazilian and Japanese companies announced earlier this year plans to produce biomethane in Brazil . The renewable fuel would supply both countries. Brazil and Japan should also sign a deal to help recover the Cerrado biome, which is the second largest biome in Brazil and the second most endangered. It comprises of savanah grasslands and forest and makes up about 25pc of the nation's territory. The Cerrado lost 9.7mn hectares to wildfires in 2024, up by almost 92pc from 2023, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. Deforestation is one of Brazil's flagship issues for Cop 30 this year. The country has been pushing for forest protection and recovery initiatives as most of Brazil's past Cop pledges cannot be met with only its remaining forests. Japan and Brazil should talk about the Amazon Fund as well because Brazil "wants more", Saboia said. Japan was the first Asian country to donate to the fund with $14mn, which Saboia said was "too little." Where's the beef? Lula is also targeting opening Japan's beef market to Brazilian exports, as the Asian country imports over 70pc of all its beef. Lula met with members of the beef exporters association Abiec in his first day in Japan to discuss the matter. The bulk of Japan's beef imports — 80pc — come from the US, the Brazilian government said. Brazil does not currently export beef to Japan. "Brazil has the logistic capacity to increase exports and double beef exports every four years," transport ministry Renan Filho said. Brazil has been trying to enter Japan's beef market for over two decades. This time, Lula expects to achieve a technical visit from Japan to inspect Brazil's beef producing conditions as a first step toward accessing the Japanese market. Lula will depart to Vietnam on 28 March to debate a plan to turn the country into one of Brazil's strategic partners. Only Indonesia is considered a Brazil strategic partner in southeast Asia. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn

25/03/25

Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn

London, 25 March (Argus) — Low snowpack and hydro reserves in Italy may increase demand for gas-fired plants this summer, in turn driving up power-sector gas burn on days when renewable output is weakest. Italian thermal-fired plants — mostly gas fired — accounted for 51pc of the country's generation mix in the summers of 2020-24, while run-of-river installations, pumped-storage plants and hydroelectric dams accounted for 19pc and solar, wind and other sources provided 31pc. Italian power-sector gas demand averaged 61.5mn m³/d. Italian gas-fired plants compete directly against programmable hydroelectric dams for both the day-ahead and ancillary power markets, so if overall electricity demand this summer remains steady on the year, gas-fired plants stand to gain a greater share of the generation mix than in years when hydro output was stronger. Unseasonably hot weather driving unusually high use of electric-powered air conditioning this summer would further increase scope for Italy's gas-fired plants to run. The estimated water content of snow on Italian mountains as of 8 March — the latest available data — was the lowest for that date since at least 2011 and was almost 57pc below the 2011-23 average for that time of year, according to Italian meteorological association Cima. Snowpack last year also dipped below the 2011-23 average in January-March before late-season precipitation pushed levels back above median levels in April-July. At the same time, water reserves at Italian hydroelectric dams have been well below historical averages this year. Reserves equal to 2.08TWh of power generation as of 17 March — the latest available data — were the third lowest for that date since 2015 and a full 10pc below the 10-year average for that time of year. Looking ahead, following months of predominantly dry weather punctuated by occasional bouts of heavy showers, long-term weather forecasts this week predicted slightly above-average rainfall over the rest of March and throughout April in Milan, around which much of the country's hydro capacity is located. And during that time, at least some rain was forecast to fall on all but one day, which would provide a far steadier influx of water into rivers. That said, Italian renewable generation capacity — particularly solar — is poised to continue rising in the coming months, likely boosting output from those technologies on the year in April-September and restricting demand for dispatchable gas-fired and hydroelectric dams alike. Total Italian PV solar capacity of 37.9GW at the start of March was 20pc higher on the year, suggesting potential for a proportional increase in generation of that type in April-September compared with summer 2024. Italian PV solar panels and on-site renewable installations at homes and businesses, the vast majority of which are solar-based, generated an average of 8GW each day in summer 2024, covering 26pc of all generation nationwide. By Ilenia Reale and Jeff Kuntz Gas and hydro output, hydro reserves GW, TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dangote to hit full operating capacity in Apr: Source

25/03/25

Dangote to hit full operating capacity in Apr: Source

London, 25 March (Argus) — Nigeria's independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery is commissioning its alkylation unit, which will enable it to run its crude distillation unit (CDU) at operating capacity "some time next month", according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The source said CDU capacity is 550,000 b/d currently, although vessel tracking data suggest it is running some way below that. Crude arrivals at the refinery to date in March have fallen to between 175,000-235,000 b/d, according to preliminary data from vessel trackers Kpler and Vortexa, from 405,000 b/d in February . Throughput hit a high of 433,000 b/d in December, according to Kpler. The alkylation line, which produces high octane alkylate for gasoline blending, is the last of Dangote's secondary units to come online. Argus Consulting puts it at a nameplate capacity of 27,000 b/d. Other secondary units could be utilised at their maximum capacity once the alkylation unit is up and running, which would give a boost to gasoline blending component production. Recent lower runs at Dangote could suggest decreased output of gasoline — a key product in the local refined product market. Nigerian gasoline and blending component imports are around 345,000t to date this month, up from 245,000t in all of February. Gasoline imports in the wider west African market will be around 450,000t in April, a European gasoline trader told Argus this week. Nigeria accounts for around three quarters of the region's imports. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria expands crude supply with medium sweet Obodo

25/03/25

Nigeria expands crude supply with medium sweet Obodo

London, 25 March (Argus) — A new Nigerian crude grade, medium sweet Obodo, will hit the market in April, according to sources familiar with the matter, as the west African country steadily adds to its crude offering. Obodo has a gravity of 27.65°API and a sulphur content of 0.05pc, according to an assay seen by Argus . A source said the grade is likely to be priced in line with Nigerian medium sweet Bonga. Details on production levels were not immediately available. Nigerian independent Continental Oil & Gas will produce Obodo from onshore oil block OML 150 in the Niger delta region, and state-owned NNPC will market the crude, according to two sources. NUPRC data shows Continental Oil has a stake in OML 150 under a production sharing contract — typically between the government and a private company. The newest Nigerian crude will add to a growing supply of medium sweet grades in the country. NNPC restarted production of similar-quality Utapate in 2024, which followed the launch of Nembe in 2023. Nigerian medium sweets, including Forcados, Escravos and Bonga, have predominantly found an outlet in Europe — the largest market for Nigerian crude. Obodo could also find favour with European refineries, where seasonal maintenance is scheduled to wind down by the end of April and early May. Nigerian grades have faced tepid demand in the April-trade cycle as ample availability of lower-priced alternatives such as US WTI, Caspian CPC Blend and other Mediterranean grades enticed European buyers. The trade cycle has since shifted to May, with as many as 15 April-loading Nigerian cargoes still looking for buyers, according to market participants. Nigeria's upstream regulator NUPRC in March outlined a plan to add 1.07mn b/d to the country's liquids output by December 2026. The plan forecasts an injection of capital into Nigerian oil blocks through joint ventures, production-sharing contracts and sole risk contracts. Nigeria has struggled to mobilise upstream investment and has consistently fallen short of less ambitious production growth targets in recent years. The country's crude production fell by 4.5pc on the month to 1.47mn b/d in February, according to NUPRC — just under its Opec+ quota of 1.5mn b/d. By Sanjana Shivdas and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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