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Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low

  • Spanish Market: Fertilizers
  • 24/03/25

Global fertilizer affordability has dropped to its lowest in two and a half years, driven by firm phosphate and potash prices, while crop values have dipped to the lowest since 2020.

Nutrient affordability fell to 0.82 points in March, the lowest since November 2022, Argus data show.

An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability.

The index has dropped owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates and potash, which were partly offset by a decline in urea prices. Crop prices have fallen for all major grains and oilseeds on trade tensions.

Phosphate prices were supported by competing demand for limited supply. The absence of Chinese product from the global phosphates market since late 2024 has kept supply tight.

Additionally, a lack of clarity surrounding China's return to the export market, while firm sulphur and sulphuric acid costs force domestic DAP/MAP prices higher, has prevented any softer sentiment in the region.

Competition between India and Ethiopia has driven DAP demand east of Suez. A significant decline in stocks in India by the end of its high season forced buyers to remain in the market during the off season. This coincided with Ethiopia switching to import DAP from NPS from the third quarter of 2024, seeking over 1mn t of the product across regular tenders.

Re-emerging interest from Latin America, and with China still out of the market, has allowed suppliers to raise MAP prices, while US DAP/MAP barge prices are firming again ahead of spring applications.

On potash, MOP prices have been on the up this year, also driven by tight supply.

Belarus' Belaruskali began major works at its fourth mine in January, which will reduce exports of white MOP by around 1mn t in the first half of 2025. In February, Uralkali announced that it will undertake maintenance in the second quarter that will cut its MOP output by around 300,000 t/yr, further cementing the stronger market sentiment.

It also said it will push more product — at least 400,000t of MOP — to the domestic market in 2025. Canpotex also confirmed that it is fully committed for the first half of this year, while uncertainty over tariffs on US imports of Canadian imports also drove up sentiment.

MOP prices have been particularly low compared with other key nutrients, specifically phosphate and nitrogen products. And expectations that MOP prices are likely to rise further have encouraged buyers to step into the market earlier and for larger amounts than normal as affordability remains healthy.

Urea prices have fallen steadily in March, after hitting 16-month highs in mid-February.

The combination of a delayed tender issuance from India, with expectations initially appearing in early February, and the restart of Iranian urea production this month — after outages since December — have weighed on sentiment following a price rise since early December.

The lack of a tender in India has enabled US importers to build the line-up for the spring season, releasing pressure on buyers for March-loading cargoes. And a lack of spot import interest in urea from Australia, which appeared earlier than usual in the first quarter of last year, has yet to tighten the balance significantly east of Suez.

On the other hand, crop prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans have fallen sharply in March, with the crop index — which includes global prices adjusted by output volumes — dropping to the lowest since August 2020 partly on uncertainty over trade dynamics following the imposition of trade tariffs.

There is a risk that declining grain prices will weigh on demand for crop inputs.

Global fertilizer affordability Index

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28/03/25

India approves P and K subsidy for kharif 2025

India approves P and K subsidy for kharif 2025

London, 28 March (Argus) — The Indian government has approved the nutrient-based subsidy for phosphates and potash fertilizers for the kharif season, which runs from April until September. It has approved a total budget of 372.16bn rupees ($4.35bn) for the kharif season, which is 130bn rupees higher than the subsidy for rabi 2024-25 and around 128bn rupees higher than the allocation for kharif last year . The government said that the increased subsidy reflects the recent trends in international prices of fertilizers and inputs. The new rates are largely in line with the proposal made by the Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) in February, although the rate for DAP is slightly lower than the initial proposals as are the rates for the NPK grades, which moved according to the hike in the rate for P2O5. The subsidy for MOP will remain at Rs2.38/kg, unchanged on the level for the rabi season as proposed in September. This will give a per tonne subsidy rate for MOP of Rs1,428. The subsidy for phosphate will rise by 42pc from Rs30.80/kg for the rabi season to Rs43.60/kg. The subsidy for nitrogen will remain at Rs43.02/kg. This will give a per tonne subsidy rate for DAP of Rs27,799, a rise of Rs5,888/t from the base subsidy for rabi, slightly lower than the expected rise of around Rs6,000/t. The government will probably extend the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy for DAP into kharif, bringing the total subsidy for DAP up to Rs31,299/t. The maximum retail price for DAP will remain at Rs27,000/t. At current market prices, DAP importers' margins will remain negative. The government will probably continue to compensate importers for losses on DAP, but there is no indication that Indian DAP producers will also receive compensation for losses. The rates for NPK grades have moved up according to the hike in the rate for P2O5. The new subsidies are as follows for the following key import grades when compared with the rates for rabi: 10-26-26 - Rs16,257/t, up by 26pc 20-20-0+13 – Rs17,663/t, up by 18pc 12-32-16 – Rs19,495/t, up by 27pc 15-15-15+9S – Rs13,585/t, up by 19pc A total of 28 fertilizer grades are included in the scheme. By Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian government considers raising DAP subsidy


27/03/25
27/03/25

Indian government considers raising DAP subsidy

London, 27 March (Argus) — The Indian government is considering raising the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for DAP by around 6,000 rupees/t to around Rs27,911/t for the March-September kharif season. The special additional subsidy of Rs3,500/t for DAP, bringing the current subsidy to Rs25,411/t, is likely to be extended into the kharif season. The special subsidy was initially due to end by 1 April . This would bring the total subsidy for DAP to around Rs31,411/t from Rs25,411/t in the October 2024-March 2025 rabi season. The Inter-Ministerial Committee had proposed raising the NBS for DAP by Rs5,980.60/t last month. The government will still cover losses to importers, but there is no indication that losses will be made up for producers. The maximum retail price (MRP) for DAP is likely to remain at Rs27,000/t. The disparity between the NBS and MRP in India, and a bullish global market, have made DAP receipts unaffordable for Indian importers. Argus ' latest daily DAP assessment stands at $648-650/t cfr India, or $80/t higher than the midpoint of the 28 March 2024 assessment. Firm phosphoric acid and sulphur prices are lifting costs for domestic producers. Jordanian producer JPMC and Indian importer CIL have agreed a second-quarter phosphoric acid price of $1,153/t P2O5 cfr India, up by $98/t P2O5 from the first quarter. And Indian sulphur import prices are up by $91/t at the midpoint from the start of this year. But a drop of $102.50/t at the midpoint in ammonia cfr prices gives Indian producers some relief. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

QatarEnergy Marketing raises Apr sulphur price by $73/t


27/03/25
27/03/25

QatarEnergy Marketing raises Apr sulphur price by $73/t

London, 27 March (Argus) — State-owned QatarEnergy Marketing has raised its April Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) to $275/t fob, up steeply from March's $202/t fob Ras Laffan/Mesaieed. Last month's increase was already unusually large, rising by a substantial $30/t from February, despite being less than half of the latest on-month increment, but the spot market has moved up at an accelerated pace in recent weeks. The April QSP implies a delivered price to China of $295-301/t cfr at current freight rates. This was last assessed on 20 March at $20-21/t to south China and $24-26/t to Chinese river ports for a 30,000-35,000t shipment. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt


26/03/25
26/03/25

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

Sao Paulo, 26 March (Argus) — Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial on charges of an attempted coup following his 2022 electoral defeat, the supreme court (STF) ruled today. In February Brazil's prosecutor-general charged Bolsonaro and seven other people — which include some of his former ministers — of plotting to guarantee that the former president stayed in power despite losing the election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital of Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents , the prosecutor-general said. STF's five-judge panel voted unanimously to put Bolsonaro on trial, with top judge Alexandre de Moraes saying that the 8 January insurrection was a result of "systematic efforts" by Bolsonaro and his aides to discredit the election he lost. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 40 years in jail. He is charged with five crimes, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempted coup and threatening to harm "the Union's assets." Although it is not clear when court proceedings will begin, they are expected this year, which is unusually fast for Brazil's justice system. "They are in a hurry, big hurry," Bolsonaro said of the legal proceedings on social media platform X, adding that the case is moving "10 times faster" than Lula's proceeding when he was on trial for the anti-corruption Car Wash investigation. Lula was eventually found guilty of money laundering and corruption and jailed in April 2018, but was later acquitted and freed in November 2019. Bolsonaro also added that the trial is politically motivated. "The court is trying to prevent me from being tried in 2026, because they want to stop me from running in the elections," he added. Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026. The electoral court voted in June 2023 to make Bolsonaro ineligible to run for any public office until 2030. But he is still seen as a major political force in the country. It is unclear who will serve as Bolsonaro's successor for more conservative voters, although Sao Paulo state's governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the most likely candidate. Bolsonaro — who sat in the president's seat from 2019-2022 — also faces several other legal challenges to his conduct as president, including allegations of money laundering, criminal association and embezzlement for allegedly receiving jewelry as gifts from Saudi Arabia related to the sale of state-controlled Petrobras' 330,000 b/d Landulpho Alves refinery in northeastern Bahia state to the UAE's Mubadala Capital. But none of these allegations have moved forward in the judiciary. During his administration, Bolsonaro privatized several state-owned energy assets and put little priority on environmental protections, policies that Lula has since reversed. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CIL/JPMC settle Indian phosacid $98/t P2O5 higher


26/03/25
26/03/25

CIL/JPMC settle Indian phosacid $98/t P2O5 higher

London, 26 March (Argus) — Indian fertilizer producer and importer Coromandel and Jordanian phosphates producer JPMC have agreed a second-quarter phosphoric acid price of $1,153/t P2O5 cfr India with 30 days of credit. The price is up by $98/t P2O5 from the first-quarter price of $1,055/t P2O5 cfr India. The price rise is driven by firming sentiment for DAP import prices in India — because of tight global supply and persistent demand — as well as rising sulphur costs and lower ammonia prices. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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