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ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

  • Spanish Market: Biofuels, Natural gas
  • 28/03/25

Adds comment from the European Commission

The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures.

Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels.

"This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said.

Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria.

Market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice.

"Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said.

The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added.

Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said.

The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies.

The European Commission confirmed that the committee met on 26 March to discuss sustainable certification, promotion of biofuels, avoidance of double counting, and alleged fraud.

"We are still working on our examination of this alleged fraud in biodiesel imports from China," said commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen.

But the commission has not taken any decision yet and cannot allude to "possible" scenarios, she said.


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01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'


01/04/25
01/04/25

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

Washington, 1 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump plans to announce a sweeping batch of tariffs on Wednesday afternoon that will take effect "immediately", the White House said today. Trump will unveil his much anticipated tariff decision Wednesday at 4pm ET during a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden. While the administration has announced the effective date, there is little clarity on what goods will face tariffs at what rates and against which countries, leaving the government agencies that will be tasked with enforcing new tariffs largely in the dark. "The president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower," the White House said today, brushing off criticism from economists, industry groups and investors. Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in March as businesses braced for Trump's tariff threats. Trump has previewed or announced multiple tariff actions since taking office. The barriers in place now include a 20pc tariff on all imports from China, in effect since 4 March, and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum, in effect since 12 March. A 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, is scheduled to go into effect on 3 April, the White House confirmed today. Trump and his advisers have previewed two possible courses of action for 2 April. Trump has suggested that all major US trading partners are likely to see a broad increase in tariffs in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit and to raise more revenue for the US federal budget. But Trump separately has talked about the need for "reciprocal tariffs", contending that most foreign countries typically charge higher rates of tariffs on US exports than the US applies to imports from those countries. In that scenario, high tariffs become a negotiating tool to bring down alleged foreign barriers to US exports. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday night that the second course is the one Trump is more likely to take. Trump will announce "reciprocal tariffs" and "everyone will have the opportunity to lower their tariffs, lower their non-tariff barriers, stop the currency manipulation" and "make the global trading system fair for American workers again", Bessent said. But the White House insisted today that the new tariffs will not be a negotiating tool. Trump is "always up for a good negotiation, but he is very much focused on fixing the wrongs of the past and showing that American workers have a fair shake", the White House said. Trump's words and actions already have drawn retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, and the EU is preparing to implement its first batch of counter-tariffs in April. Trump, for now, has deferred his tariff plans for imported Canadian and Mexican oil and other energy commodities. But the US oil and gas sector, which depends on pipelines and foreign-flagged vessels to transport its crude, natural gas, refined products and LNG, will feel the effects of tariffs on imported steel and proposed fees on Chinese-made and owned vessels calling at US ports. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs


01/04/25
01/04/25

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Volatility in the peso/dollar exchange rate may help to partially offset any tariffs that US President Donald Trump decides to impose on imports from Mexico as the ensuing peso depreciation would make its exports more competitive, said analysts from US bank Barclays. President Trump will announce Wednesday his next decision related to the threat to impose a 25pc tariff against imports from its commercial partners Mexico and Canada. Trump has delayed the decision twice, and it is likely that he will do so again, given the serious repercussions the tariffs could cause to the US economy, said Latam chief economist at Barclays, Gabriel Casillas, during a webinar held Monday. The base scenario for Barclays is that Trump's administration will finally step back from imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada and rather go for an early renegotiation of the (US Mexico Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) this year, said Casillas. In this scenario, the Mexican peso would strengthen to between Ps19.5 to Ps19.00 to the greenback, he added. However, if Trump's administration decides to impose the 25pc tariffs on all Mexican imports as he has threatened to do, then the peso would weaken to Ps24/$1, said Erik Martinez, foreign exchange research Analyst at Barclays during the same webinar. "If tariffs were imposed, 25 percent on all imports, we think a good portion of this would be absorbed by the exchange rate," said Casillas. A weaker peso makes Mexican exports more competitive abroad. The Mexican peso on Tuesday was trading at around Ps20.30 to the dollar, and has weakened by 18.5pc in the past year from about Ps16.6 to the dollar a year ago. If President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration avoids the tariffs, the peso may strengthen to around Ps 19.00/$1 in upcoming days, said Martinez. If the tariffs are applied during a brief period or only for the automobile sector, the exchange rate could range between Ps21.00-22.00 per dollar, said Martinez. However, even without any tariff being applied, Mexico's economy is expected to grow only by around 0.7pc this year, less than the estimates made late in 2024 of around 1.4pc, due to the deceleration of the US economy, Mexico's main trading partner, said Casillas. The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, specially in the industrial sector, which will impact Mexico's growth for the year. Also, this uncertainty is directly affecting any upside expected from so-called nearshoring as companies would now lose interest in moving their manufacturing lines to Mexico if there is no clear benefit in using the USMCA to avoid tariffs, said Casillas. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal


01/04/25
01/04/25

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal

Brussels, 1 April (Argus) — The European Commission has published the long-awaited proposal to give automobile manufacturers more flexibility in complying with the bloc's CO2 reduction targets for cars and passenger vehicles in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Those three years would be assessed jointly, rather than annually, averaging out fleet emission performance. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the additional compliance flexibility shows that the commission has "listened" but the EU is still maintaining its zero-emission targets [for new vehicles from 2035]. "Predictability in the sector is crucial for long-term investments," said Hoekstra. The commission urged the European Parliament and EU member states to reach agreement on the targeted amendment "without delay". German centre-right member Jens Gieseke said there is a "broad majority" in parliament to fast-track approval for May. He noted that the car industry faces over €15bn ($16bn) in penalties for non-compliance with the CO2 standards. A member of parliament's largest EPP group, Gieseke also called for the commission to go further towards technological neutrality. "We need different kinds of fuels, e-fuels, biofuels, every fuel which could help to reduce CO2 should be recognized," he added. This second step, withdrawing the phase-out of internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2035 onwards, Gieseke noted, should come in the last quarter of 2025. German Green MEP Michael Bloss disputed the figure of €15bn in potential fines put forward by automotive industry association ACEA. "Even in the worst-case scenario, the total fines for all car manufacturers would not exceed €1bn," said Bloss. "Car manufacturers have had enough time to adjust their production planning. Many have done so," Bloss said, pointing to Automaker Volvo. Under the current 2019 regulation, fines should be imposed on manufacturers for each year in 2025–2029 when they do not reach their specific fleet-wide target CO2 reductions, compared to 2021 values. But manufacturers have the option to form compliance pools with other firms. "European car manufacturers are already talking to Tesla or Chinese manufacturers about so-called pooling, which must be stopped quickly," said EPP climate and environment spokesman Peter Liese. "We want to maintain climate targets, but not make Elon Musk richer through European legislation," said Liese. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's OCE sees higher LNG export earnings


01/04/25
01/04/25

Australia's OCE sees higher LNG export earnings

Sydney, 1 April (Argus) — Australia's Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) has revised up its LNG export earnings forecasts for the present fiscal year and the next, given global supply issues and higher than expected prices. Seasonal pressures — including higher winter demand in Europe owing to lower renewable energy output and an end to Russian gas flows via Ukraine — have increased prices, the OCE's Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) March report said. The OCE raised its expectations for the average LNG price for the fiscal year to 30 June by 10pc ( see table ), while increasing its forecast for the following year by 14pc from its previous report. Receipts predicted in 2024-25 have been forecast A$8bn ($5bn) higher to A$72bn, while 2025-26 earnings will likely reach A$66bn, up from A$60bn in December's REQ. Asian demand continues to strengthen, even with Japan and South Korean import levels likely peaking. The OCE noted LNG's growing popularity as a transport fuel in China and record-high Indian imports last year, given increased pressure on power grids. Higher prices have failed to dampen demand in southeast Asia — including Malaysia, Bangladesh, Singapore and Thailand — while Taiwan's backtracking on renewable targets, coupled with artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor sector growth, will increase energy demand there. Qatari and US investment in new supply will add 5pc to global export volumes in 2025, while demand witll grow by just 2.5pc, but the REQ expects this year's imports and exports will gradually balance. Greenfield projects The biggest challenge for Australian projects appears to be a lack of greenfield projects, following the expected completion of the 8mn t/yr Scarborough and 3.7mn t/yr Barossa projects in July-December 2026 and July-September 2025 respectively. The impact of these backfill operations in offsetting gradual declines at the 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf LNG facility will have ceased by 2029-30, with exports falling by 2mn t/yr to 78mn t/yr. But oil and gas exploration spending is increasing after years of declines, the OCE said, with onshore search expenditure rising from A$190mn in July-September last year to A$285mn in October-December 2024. Offshore spending rose from A$125mn to A$178mn in the same period, indicating that higher prices are driving greater confidence. The ANEA price — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — for first and second-half May were assessed at $12.96/mn Btu and $12.995/mn Btu respectively on 28 March. The ASEA price — Argus' assessment for spot LNG deliveries to southeast Asia — for the same period was $12.72/mn Btu and $12.75/mn Btu. By Tom Major Australia LNG export forecasts 2023-24 2024-25 (f) 2025-26 (f) 2026-27 (z) 2027-28 (z) 2028-29 (z) 2029-30 (z) Exports (mn t) 81 80 80 82 80 80 78 Export receipts (A$bn) 70 72 68 64 63 57 51 Mar '25 LNG export price (A$/GJ) 16.1 17.1 16.3 14.9 14.8 13.4 12.5 Dec '24 LNG export price (A$/GJ) 16.1 15.6 14.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a Export price % ± (Mar vs Dec forecasts) 0 10 14 n/a n/a n/a n/a f - forecast z - projection Source: OCE REQ Argus gas prices ($/mn Btu) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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