Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Spanish Market: Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Oil products
01/04/25

Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment.

The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December.

Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data.

Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April.

A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance.

The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth.

Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings.

Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services.

The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey.

The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1.

By James Young

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

04/04/25

WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

Adds end of day changes to stock markets, WTI, Treasuries Calgary, 4 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark WTI fell by more than 7pc after China retaliated against the US' latest tariff action, while a selloff in global equity markets deepened. May Nymex WTI fell by $4.96/bl to $61.99/bl, the lowest since 26 April 2021, and is down by $9.72/bl over the most recent two days. Turmoil also continued for a second day in equity markets with the S&P 500 down by 6pc, the Nasdaq down by 5.8pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 5.5pc from the day prior, which saw similiar losses, wiping out nearly a year of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Trillions of dollars in value were wiped out. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to end the day just above 4pc, its lowest since October, as Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safe haven in the dollar-denominated notes. Treasury yields and prices move counter to each other. The equity selloff persisted on mounting fears of a recession after US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of global trading partners for imports into the US. China hit back on Friday with a 34pc tariff of its own against the US from 10 April, driving away any hope by investors for a rebound after a selloff the day before. WTI fell by as much as 9pc during Friday's session after China's retaliation, bottoming out at $60.45/bl. The gloomy economic outlook overshadowed a strong job report that showed the US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners. The IMF say tariffs represent a "significant risk" to the global outlook while US-based bank Goldman Sachs said Friday it has cut its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 600,000 b/d from 900,000 b/d, based on its economists' new view of economic growth. Adding price pressure this week has also been the unexpected plans by eight Opec+ members to unwind production cuts faster , upping output in May by 411,000 b/d. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

04/04/25

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

London, 4 April (Argus) — Egyptian rebar has cleared at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda under a product code that sits under a different EU quota category, a mill test certificate sent to rebar buyers and obtained by Argus shows. The documentation shows a parcel of steel products with the properties and specifications of rebar registered under HS code 722830, which is for hot-rolled bar, not rebar. The material is supplied by an Egyptian steel mill, and the mill test certificate obtained by Argus contains the assertion "HS code for rebar is: 72 28 30 69 00", followed by the signature of a senior quality engineer. The mill's website indicates it produces rebar, rebar in spools and rebar in coil, which fall respectively under the rebar and wire rod EU import quotas. Hot-rolled bar under the HS code 72283069 falls under category 12 for "non-alloy and other alloy merchant bars and light sections", for which there is currently no import restriction on Egyptian material. A trading company is thought to have discharged at least 17,000t of rebar and rebar in coils at Klaipeda on 28 March, after loading at the Egyptian port of Alexandria on 24 February. But it is not clear how much material in total has passed through customs or under which HS codes. As of 1 April, the EU's Egyptian rebar quota is capped at about 27,500t, after previously having had no limitation within the "other countries" allocation of about 138,000t. Some market participants estimated that there were about 80,000t of Egyptian rebar waiting to clear at EU ports on 1 April, but only about 30,000t cleared under the rebar quota on the first day, according to market participants, meaning duties paid by companies clearing material on that day will not be as high as feared. Trade data also show that Bulgaria imported 17,000t of hot-rolled bar from Egypt under HS 72283069 in January 2025, nearly three times as much as the whole EU imported in the full year of 2024 or 2023, a sign that companies are increasingly keen to seek ways around EU safeguards as they tighten. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

04/04/25

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

04/04/25

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

Washington, 4 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump held out prospects of a negotiated reduction in high tariffs targeting key US trading partners while insisting that import taxes are here to say. Trump via his social media platform said today he spoke with Vietnam Communist Party leader To Lam, who promised to cut their tariffs to zero on US products. Under the plan Trump unveiled on 2 April, US imports from Vietnam will be subject to a 46pc tariff. Trump late Thursday told reporters that a deal on tariffs is possible "if somebody said that we're going to give you something that's so phenomenal." He mentioned a possible deal with China over the sale of social platform TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance. "We have a situation with Tiktok where China will probably say, we'll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariff?", Trump said. The Trump administration is forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US company, but Beijing must approve the sale. "The tariffs give us great power to negotiate," Trump said. But China's commerce ministry today unveiled a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, and vowed that no exemptions will be granted, unlike in its previous round of tit-for-tat tariffs on US commodities. Trump on 2 April announced a 10pc baseline tax on all foreign imports starting on 5 April, while many major US trading partners would be subject to an even higher tax beginning on 9 April. Imports from the EU would be subject to a 20pc tariff beginning on 9 April and imports from China subject to a 34pc tariff in addition to the previously imposed 20pc tariffs. "CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!", Trump said on social media after the announcement from Beijing. Trump's executive order exempted energy commodities and many critical minerals from new tariffs, as well as trade already covered under the US Mexico Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). But oil and stock markets continued to slide today as economists and investors concluded that the US tariffs and potential foreign counter-measures would lead to a protracted trade war and reduce economic growth globally. The latest tariffs are likely to cut global growth rates by 0.5 percentage points and reduce US GDP growth by 1pc in 2025-26, analysts with investment bank Standard Chartered said in a note to clients today. Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell, speaking at a conference in Arlington, Virginia, today, warned that the latest bout of tariffs will lead to "higher inflation and slower growth." IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva issued a similar warning on Thursday evening. Trump retorted via his social media platform that "This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates." What's next? Despite touting possible deals to avoid high tariffs, Trump also said today that investors planning to move manufacturing to the US should expect no changes in his tariff policies. Trump's cabinet also struggled to articulate what comes next, with commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying that Trump would not lift the tariffs announced this week, while treasury secretary Scott Bessent said deals over tariff levels were possible. Secretary of state Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters on a trip to Brussels, Belgium, said that "it's not fair to say that the economies are crashing — markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the US. "The markets will adjust business around the world, including in trade," Rubio said. "They just need to know what the rules are." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products

04/04/25

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products

London, 4 April (Argus) — The UK government has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. The government said it was considering "potential tariff measures on US goods, should this be deemed necessary" in response to a 10pc US import tariff on UK goods and services — excluding energy — due to take effect on 5 April. The consultation will last until 1 May. Light oils, gasoils, jet fuel, fuel oils, lubricants and bitumen all feature in the list of products possibly subject to retaliatory tariffs. The UK could be particularly exposed to any tariff impact on US middle distillate imports in the event of retaliation. The UK sourced over a quarter of its 14.37mn t of 10ppm diesel and gasoil from the US last year, according to Vortexa, while 3pc of its 10.15mn t of jet and kerosine imports were sourced from the US. It is not clear what tariff rate the UK is targeting in its potential retaliation. For other oil products, any potential import tariff impact would become more muted as US refined product imports become less significant. The UK received just 6pc of its 1.92mn t total fuel oil imports from the US last year, while the UK was the fourth largest gasoline supplier to the US and received none of the product from its trade partner. European refined product values have collapsed as a result of the escalating trade war which saw China retaliate today against the US' latest tariff action. Eurobob non-oxy gasoline barge prices dropped by 4pc to $700.75/t on 3 April at a time when trading activity typically picks up ahead of the US summer driving season. Indicated non-oxy barge values were set to drop further in the trading session today. The EU is similarly preparing countermeasures against US import tariffs, which Washington set at 20pc from 9 April in addition to existing rates. Ice gasoil futures had dropped by 10pc since President Trump announced the new tariff regime on 2 April to $615.75/t by the close today. Ice gasoil futures are used as the pricing basis against which diesel, gasoil and jet fuel grades are assessed in the European middle distillates markets. European refined products market participants have pointed to a darker global economic outlook triggered by the US import tariffs as the driving force behind the drop-off in European product values. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more