Delta pulls full-year forecast on tariff uncertainty

Spanish Market: Metals, Oil products
09/04/25

Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty.

"Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call.

Delta said it hoped the growing tariff war woudl be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee.

In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, chief executive Ed Bastion said.

The company reported a profit of $298mn in the first quarter of 2025, up slightly from $288mn in the first quarter of 2024.

The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period.

By Eunice Bridges

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21/04/25

Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US-based integrated aluminum producer Alcoa anticipates $90mn in tariff-related costs associated with importing primary aluminum from Canada during the second quarter. For the full year, the Pennsylvania-based company foresees that figure rising to between $400mn-425mn, as 70pc of its production from Canada "is destined for US customers," Alcoa chief executive William Oplinger said in a first-quarter earnings call late Wednesday. A higher Midwest premium should help offset most of those cost pressures in support of Alcoa's domestic smelters, but Oplinger warned that the company still faces a $100mn negative impact on its business in 2025 because of the higher Section 232 duties that US president Donald Trump implemented on 12 March. The company noted that the US lacks the infrastructure to cover domestic aluminum consumption, even if all other idled smelting capacity here would restart. "Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminum supply chain is Canadian aluminum going into the US," Oplinger said. By his estimate, at least five domestic smelters would need to be added, but construction would take "many years" and investment would be partially dependent on access to new — and cheap — energy sources. "These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors or more than 10 Hoover dams," Oplinger said. Still, Alcoa maintained its full-year production and sales volume guidance for aluminum products, ranging between 2.3mn-2.5mn metric tonnes (t) and 2.6mn-2.8mn t, respectively. It also kept its outlook for alumina output and shipments unchanged at 9.5mn-9.7mn t and 13.1mn-13.3mn t, respectively. First-quarter aluminum production increased by 4pc to 564,000t from the prior-year period, while total sales volumes fell by 3.9pc in the same timeframe, reflecting timing of shipments and the end of its offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia Mining (Ma'aden) as part of its planned divestment from the entities' aluminum joint venture. Alumina output in January-March dropped by 12pc to 2.4mn t on the year, while shipments fell by 12pc as well, to 2.1mn t. Alcoa attributed the drop in sales volumes to timing of shipments and reduced trading. Quarterly bauxite production fell by 5.9pc to 9.5mn dry metric tonnes (dmt) from the prior-year period, while sales volumes increased by 67pc to 3mn dmt. The company was able to capitalize on supply tightness in the bauxite market that has helped elevate prices to $80-85/dmt, selling cargoes in the spot market. Alcoa posted a $548mn profit in the first quarter compared to a loss of $252mn in the prior-year period. Revenues increased by 30pc to nearly $3.4bn in the same timeframe. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

17/04/25

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

17/04/25

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nabisy sperrt Biokraftstoffproduzenten

17/04/25

Nabisy sperrt Biokraftstoffproduzenten

Hamburg, 17 April (Argus) — Die Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung hat am 15. April den Zugang eines Biokraftstoffherstellers zum deutschen Biomasseregister Nabisy gesperrt. Dies führte zu einem Anstieg der Ticketpreise in Deutschland und den Niederlanden sowie der HVO-Preise in der ARA. "Dem Nabisy-Nutzer mit der ID: EU-BM-13-SSt-10022652 wurde der Zugang zur staatlichen Datenbank Nabisy [Nachhaltige - Biomasse - Systeme] gesperrt", teilte die Datenbank in einer E-Mail vom 15. April mit. Weiter hieß es, die Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung (BLE) prüfe die von diesem Nutzer in der Nabisy-Datenbank ausgestellten Nachhaltigkeitsnachweise und die daraus resultierenden Teilnachweise. Die BLE teilte Argus mit, dass sie aufgrund von Datenschutzbestimmungen keine weiteren Informationen zu der suspendierten Produktionsanlage bereitstellen kann. Die BLE prüfe derzeit die eingegangenen Beweise. Alle vom suspendierten Produzenten ausgestellten Nachweise bleiben für die Dauer der Untersuchung ungültig. Das bedeutet, dass verpflichtete Parteien keine deutschen Zertifikate zur Reduzierung von Treibhausgasemissionen von ihm einfordern können. Elmar Baumann, Geschäftsführer des Verbands der Deutschen Biokraftstoffindustrie erklärte, dass der Verband das Vorgehen des BLE für das Durchführen einer gründlichen Prüfung zur Klärung des Verdachts als zwingend erforderlich einschätzt. Weiter geht der Verband davon aus, dass "der Behörde klare Anhaltspunkte für gravierende Verstöße vorliegen" müssen. Das Ausmaß der von der Untersuchung betroffenen Biokraftstoffmengen ist unklar. Marktteilnehmer berichteten Argus jedoch, dass der Nabisy-Code des Produzenten auf Nachweisen für HVO aus Abfällen und fortschrittlichen Rohstoffen gefunden wurde. Die Nachricht führte zunächst zu höheren Preisen für deutsche THG-Zertifikate sowie für niederländische Zertifikate für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe (HBE). Verpflichtete Unternehmen befürchteten Lücken in der Erfüllung der Treibhausgasminderungsquote, sollten sie die Nachweise des suspendierten Produzenten verlieren. Die deutschen doppelt anrechenbaren THG-Zertifikate für das Jahr 2025 stiegen am 16. April um 10 €/t CO2eq auf rund 270 €/t CO2eq und blieben zum Ende der Woche weitgehend stabil. Auch die europäischen HVO-Preise stiegen, wenn auch in begrenztem Umfang. Der Fob-ARA-Aufschlag für HVO auf Palmölmühlenabwasser (POME)-Basis stieg um rund 25 $/m³, die Spotpreise für HVO auf Basis von Altspeiseöl (UCO) stiegen im Vergleich zum Ende der letzten Woche um rund 40 $/m³. Im deutschen HVO-Markt lässt sich bisher keine Reaktion erkennen. Von Svea Winter Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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