Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update

Spanish Market: Metals, Oil products
09/04/25

Adds details from earnings call throughout.

Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty.

"Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call.

Delta said it hoped the growing US tariff war with the world would be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee.

"If you start to put a 20pc incremental cost on top of an aircraft, it gets very difficult to make that math work," chief executive Ed Bastion said in an earnings call today.

In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, Bastion said.

Delta expects revenue in the second quarter of 2025 to be either 2pc higher or 2pc lower from the year earlier period with continued resilience in premium, loyalty and international bookings offsetting softness in domestic and standard flights.

Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners were implemented on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes went into effect today, although at midday Wednesday he announced a 90-day pause on most of the higher tariffs, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports even higher.

The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024.

Confidence craters in 1Q

Corporate travel started the year with momentum, but a reduction in corporate confidence stalled growth in February and March, Delta said. For the first quarter, corporate sales were up by low-single digits compared to the prior year, with strength led by the banking and technology sectors.

The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period.

Delta said it has seen "a significant drop off in bookings" out of Canada amid the trade disputes with that country which started earlier than the broader US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mexico is "a mixed bag," the company said.

Delta is considering reducing capacity levels in Mexico and Canada in the future.

The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024.

By Eunice Bridges

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17/04/25

Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports

Dubai, 17 April (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's plans to integrate downstream petrochemical units with its oil refineries could weigh on naphtha exports and gasoline blending. State-controlled Aramco recently signed a deal with Chinese state-controlled Sinopec to build and integrate a 1.8mn t/yr mix-feed ethylene steam cracker and a 1.5mn t/yr aromatics complex into the 400,000 b/d Yasref refinery. This sort of integration would typically redirect naphtha to the petrochemical units and away from the gasoline blending pool, traders said. Market participants point to a likely fall in overall Saudi naphtha exports, as has been the case since the integration of petrochemical operations at the 400,000 b/d Jizan and PetroRabigh refineries in 2021 and 2008, respectively. Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) data show Saudi naphtha exports in steady decline to 93,000 b/d in 2024, 108,700 b/d in 2023, 144,800 b/d in 2022 and 169,200 b/d in 2021. Data from Kpler show naphtha exports from the Yasref refinery at 22,000 b/d in 2024, down from 25,000 b/d a year earlier but higher than 19,000 b/d in 2022. The majority of these exports went to Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea. Yasref has the capacity to produce 112,000 b/d gasoline but it exported only 17,000 b/d in 2024 and 26,000 b/d in 2023. Market participants said the integration may not have any immediate significant effect on gasoline output but the addition of the aromatic complex, in theory, could need pull in more heavy full-range naphtha that is otherwise used as a blendstock for gasoline production. It remains to be seen if the new mixed feed cracker would favour naphtha or LPG as a feedstock. Ethane accounts for the majority of feedstock for Saudi crackers. The shift of focus from producing transportation fuels to petrochemicals comes as Saudi gasoline demand continues to lag pre-pandemic levels and faces pressure from growing uptake of electric vehicles. Saudi gasoline demand averaged 514,000 b/d in 2024, well below the 550,000 b/d in pre-pandemic 2019, mainly because of higher retail prices . Aramco has a target to process up to 4mn b/d of crude into petrochemicals by 2030, from 1mn b/d currently. It is developing an $11bn petrochemical expansion project at the 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery joint venture with TotalEnergies. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March

17/04/25

Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March

Sydney, 17 April (Argus) — Australian mineral producer BHP's iron ore sales fell by 3.9pc on the year in January-March, despite total production remaining largely flat, because of months of severe weather challenges in Australia. BHP iron ore output for the 2025 financial year will sit in the lower end of its 255mn-265.5mn t guidance , it said in February. BHP had expected to operate in the upper end of its guidance range before multiple cyclones hit Western Australia (WA) in January-February. The decline in BHP's production guidance comes entirely from its WA operations. The company increased its Brazilian Samarco iron ore production guidance closer to the upper end of its 5mn-5.5mn t range. BHP produced 1.6mn t of ore at Samarco in January-March, up by 39pc on the year. The company — which runs Samarco as a joint venture with Brazilian metal firm Vale — re-opened a concentration plant at the mine in December 2024. Total production at Samarco will reach 16mn t/yr by the end of the 2025 financial year, the company said on 17 April. But production declines at the company's WA mines were limited in January-March, decreasing by just 0.3pc on the year. This was partly because of the ramp up of production at BHP's South Flank mine in July-September 2024 . BHP's Samarco mine also buoyed its total iron ore sales in January-March. Exports from the site rose by 15pc on the year, partially offsetting a 4.3pc decline in shipments from the company's larger WA operations. Other producers also faced weather disruptions over January-March. Australian producer Mineral Resources revised down its 2025 iron ore production guidance by up to 2.4mn t after Cyclone Sean. Rio Tinto also lost 13mn t of shipments and will likely only reach the lower end of its production guidance range of 323mn-338mn t in 2025. By Avinash Govind BHP iron ore quarterly results Jan-Mar '25 Oct-Dec '24 Jan-March '24 q-o-q % ± y-o-y % ± Proudction (mn t) Western Australia 60.1 64.8 60.3 -7.1 -0.3 Samarco 1.6 1.5 1.2 11.1 39.3 Total 61.8 66.2 61.5 -6.7 0.5 Sales (mn t) Western Australia 59.2 64.3 61.9 -7.9 -4.3 Samarco 1.4 1.5 1.3 -4.2 14.9 Total 60.7 65.8 63.1 -7.9 -3.9 Source: BHP Argus' iron ore fines 62pc Fe price ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall

16/04/25

HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall

Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Total Brazilian electric vehicle (EVs) sales were up in the first quarter, driven by increasing demand for hybrid vehicles (HEVs) as sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) tumbled. Overall EV sales in Brazil grew by almost 40pc in the first three months of the year to 50,074 units, led by HEVs — including plug-ins (PHEVs), non-plug-ins, and mild hybrids (MHEVs) — which saw a 70.5pc surge compared to the same period in 2024, according to Fenabrave, a private body that represents car dealerships in Brazil. EVs made up 12.5pc of the total Brazilian car market, a three percentage point increase year-on-year. PHEVs were the most popular choice for consumers seeking an EV, with 19,530 units sold on the first quarter, up 83.6pc from last year, according to data from the Brazilian electric vehicles' association (ABVE). BEVs accounted for 12,993 units sold, while MHEVs — vehicles with regular engines aided by small batteries that increase fuel efficiency but do not power the wheels — accounted for 10,724 units sold. A total of 7,402 non-plug-in HEVs were sold in the quarter. Although HEV sales rose, BEVs tumbled 8.3pc due to general consumer skepticism about the Brazilian charging infrastructure and increasing popularity of PHEVs because of its above-average fuel efficiency and the possibility of driving on regular fuels, such as gasoline and ethanol. BYD increases market dominance BYD, a Chinese carmaker, further increased its EV market share in Brazil in the first quarter on aggressive discounts for its HEVs. The Chinese brand, which only sells plug-ins and BEVs, offered discounts of over R20,000 ($3,400) per car plus other benefits in excess of R10,000 ($1,700) for their PHEVs. BYD sold around 11,710 PHEV units, more than double from the same period in 2024, and accounted for 31.4pc of the total HEV market in the first quarter, according to Fenabrave. Fiat, which debuted in the EV segment in November and only markets MHEVs, sold 7,400 units, taking second place with a 19.8pc market share in January-March. Great Wall Motors (GWM), another Chinese automaker, closed out the top three with 5,880 units in the period, holding 15.8pc market share. PHEVs are becoming increasingly popular in Brazil even in regions with a solid charging infrastructure, according to ABVE. Major cities such as Sao Paulo and Brasilia — the country's capital — were among the top plug-in buyers due to the possibility of daily driving in electric mode and travelling long ranges on hybrid. BYD's plug-ins can drive for 745 miles on a single tank of gas, on a fully charged battery and loaded tank. All types of EVs in Brazil are eligible for a yearly tax exemption of up to 4pc of the car's value in most states. Although BEV sales were down, BYD still managed to increase its dominant place in the market. The Chinese automaker sold 9,680 EVs in the first three months of the year, more than 75pc of the nearly 12,880 units sold in the period. According to the company, 7 out of 10 BEVs sold in Brazil are from BYD. Volvo followed with almost 1,200 sold EVs and GWM had the third-highest sales figures at just 814. Overall, BYD owns 42.7pc of the total Brazilian EV market, followed by Fiat at 14.8pc and GWM, with a 13.4pc market share. The two Chinese brands both plan to start manufacturing cars in Brazil by year's end. BYD also acquired mining rights for two separate lithium sites in the country in an effort to streamline its whole operation in the country, as it figures as its largest market outside of China. By Pedro Consoli Brazil EV sales units Brand 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 ±% Market share (%) Total EVs (BEVs, HEVs) BYD 21,384 14,920 43.3 42.7 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 14.8 GWM 6,693 5,735 16.7 13.4 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -16.2 8.5 Volvo 2,097 1,606 30.5 4.2 Mercedes Benz 1,765 1,166 51.3 3.5 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 2.4 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 2.4 BMW 911 825 10.4 1.8 Porsche 687 41 1,575.6 1.4 Total (hybrid vehicles, EVs) 50,074 35,872 39.6 100 Electric vehicles (BEVs) BYD 9,678 10,052 -4 75.1 Volvo 1,196 596 101 9.2 GWM 814 1,892 -57 6.3 BMW 219 238 -8 1.7 Renault 176 187 -6 1.3 Porsche 155 41 278.0 1.2 Zeekr 141 n/a n/a 1.0 Mini 124 34 265 1.0 JAC 107 457 77 0.8 Mercedes Benz 38 39 -3 0.3 Total (EVs) 12,877 14,053 -8 100 Hybrid vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, MHEVs) BYD 11,706 4,868 140.4 31.4 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 19.9 GWM 5,879 3,843 52.9 15.8 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -15.2 11.5 Mercedes Benz 1,727 1,127 53.2 4.6 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 3.2 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 3.2 Volvo 901 1,010 -10.7 2.4 BMW 692 587 17.8 1.9 Jaguar Land Rover 627 816 -23.1 1.7 Total (hybrid vehicles) 37,197 21,819 70.5 100 Does not include all brands sold Source: Fenabrave 1Q Brazil electrified vehicles sales units Brazil EV year-on-year comparison per type units Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild

16/04/25

Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild

Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Brazil-based mining group Vale's nickel production rose in the first quarter by 11pc from the same period last year, when the company's Onça Puma mine's furnace was being rebuilt. Total nickel production rose to 43,900 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, up from 39,500t a year earlier, Vale said Tuesday. Brazilian operations produced 5,400t of finished nickel in the quarter, compared to none a year earlier. Canadian nickel production rose by 18pc to 20,000t, as Voisey's Bay's output climbed on the year by 47pc to 6,500t and Thompson mines output surged by 51pc to 3,600t. Higher production was intended to build inventories ahead of scheduled maintenance at its Canadian refineries during the upcoming quarters, Vale said. Vale plans as much as five weeks of maintenance at its Creighton mine in the third quarter, with shorter outages scheduled for Thompson and Long Harbour stretching into the fourth quarter. Nickel sales volumes stood 5pc below production at 38,900t but marked an 18pc increase from a year earlier. Vale's nickel prices averaged at $16,100/t in the quarter, down by 4.4pc year-on-year, reflecting lower London Metal exchange (LME) prices. Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Valero Benicia refinery closure latest Calif challenge

16/04/25

Valero Benicia refinery closure latest Calif challenge

Adds details on refinery operations, California regulations. Houston, 16 April (Argus) — US refiner Valero is planning to shut or re-purpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California, compounding the state's fuel market challenges. The company submitted a notice to the California Energy Commission (CEC) today of its intent "to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations" at the refinery by the end of April 2026. Valero also said it continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its remaining operations in the state, namely its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery. Valero said previously west coast refinery closures were likely , citing the high cost of doing business in the state given its environmental and financial regulations. California refiners in recent years have faced what the industry views as a restrictive environment for processing crude. Phillips 66 last year said it would shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery, saying that the long-term sustainability of the refinery was uncertain and affected by market dynamics. The Phillips 66 refinery will be shut by October. Growing legislative barriers California governor Gavin Newsom last year signed two laws, SB X1-2 and AB X2-1, which added regulations in an effort to reduce retail gasoline price volatility. The measures authorized the CEC to develop and impose requirements for in-state refiners to maintain minimum stocks of gasoline and gasoline blending components. They also authorized the CEC to determine an acceptable refining margin in the state and penalize companies that exceed it. The agency is currently in the rulemaking process on some of the measures including a requirement for refiners to submit "resupply plans" 120 days before planned maintenance that must be approved by the state. Non-compliance could carry a civil penalty of $100,000-$1mn per day. Separately, the city of Benicia recently approved a safety ordinance that applies to industrial facilities that handle hazardous materials including the Valero refinery. The ordinance included new air quality monitoring programs. California air regulators in October 2024 levied an $82mn fine against Valero for emissions violations at the Benicia refinery. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District and California Air Resources Board announced the penalty for "egregious emissions violations" stemming from a 2019 inspection that discovered unreported emissions coming from the refinery's hydrogen system. Since the 1980s, 29 refineries in California have been shut or integrated with other refineries that eventually closed or converted to renewable fuels production, according to CEC data. About half of the shut refineries were smaller operations, producing less than 20,000 b/d. Chevron, the US oil major that has long complained about a hostile regulatory environment in its home state of California, is relocating its headquarters to Houston. Valero said this week it recorded a pre-tax impairment charge of $1.1bn for the Benicia and Wilmington refineries in the first quarter as it evaluates strategic alternatives. The impairment will be treated as a special item and excluded from first quarter earnings, Valero said. The Benicia refinery produces jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, and asphalt and has more than 400 employees. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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