What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?

Some countries are considering retaliatory tariffs, while others hope to reduce their trade deficit in order to negotiate lower rates

Newly announced US tariffs on goods entering the country and some of the countermeasures already announced by large trade partners are unlikely to cause any direct disruptions to global gas markets. But the indirect effects on gas supply and demand may be huge, stemming from a weaker macroeconomic outlook, fuel substitution and inflationary pressures on infrastructure development.

US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed a minimum 10pc tax on all foreign imports from 5 April,with much higher tariffs on selected countries that briefly came into force on 9 April, before Trump announced a 90-day pause. China is the only exception. It has announced retaliatory tariffs that could disrupt US energy exports, resulting in an escalation that has already brought up the respective levies to 125pc in the US and 84pc in China. These are unlikely to have any direct impact on LNG trade flows, as China had already stopped importing US LNG earlier this year. But disruptions to trade between the world's two largest economies may weigh heavily on manufacturing activity in China, in turn reducing industrial gas demand. And the ripple effects of disruptions to US LPG exports to China may alter fuel-switching economics in the region and beyond.

Most other countries in Asia-Pacific have opted not to follow China's lead by retaliating against US tariffs, even though many have warned about the potential for long-term economic disruption. The Japanese government intends to negotiate a better tariff deal and is considering investing in the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project as part of wider efforts to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Countries in Asia-Pacific have been hit with some of the highest of Trump's targeted duties.

The EU is keeping retaliatory measures on the table, but these are unlikely to include any levy on US LNG. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of its Russian pipeline supply, and imposing tariffs on energy imports would only reignite inflationary pressures that European countries have tried to curb over the past three years. The bloc says it is ready to negotiate on possibly increasing its US LNG imports to reduce its trade surplus and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agrees to do the same. But Trump says this offer is not enough, citing the EU's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justifies a tariff response.

Nerves of steel

Much greater risks for gas markets may stem from rising infrastructure costs in the US' upstream and midstream sectors, particularly as a result of earlier tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum imports. These present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions this year.

Metals account for up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. An LNG terminal can cost $5bn-25bn to build, depending on its size, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. US facilities can be built using some domestic metal, but higher prices for this may lead to construction and final investment decision delays for the country's planned liquefaction projects.

US tariffs' primary effect on the domestic gas market stems from duties levied on non-energy goods used by the oil and gas industry, including steel and specialised pipeline components such as valves and compressors, which are imported from overseas. The US remains a net natural gas importer from Canada, but these flows are unlikely to be affected by trade tariffs given the lack of alternative supply sources available to some northern US states.