Ecuador's Noboa wins reelection with ample margin

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers
14/04/25

Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa won reelection in a run-off on Sunday with 56pc of the vote, a wider margin than projected after a tight first-round race in February.

Electoral authority (CNE) head Diana Atamaint confirmed the results with 93pc of votes counted. Noboa will hold office through May 2029.

Security has topped voters' concerns as gang violence has increased in recent years, and Noboa has vowed a tough approach on crime. He also wants to attract more private-sector investment to Ecuador's energy sector, with hopes of boosting crude production of about 467,000 b/d.

His challenger, Luisa Gonzalez, obtained only 44pc, but she did not recognize Noboa's win and has called for a recount. She belongs to the left-wing Revolucion Ciudadana party, sponsored by former president Rafael Correa, a close friend of presidents Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua. She promised more state-led energy-sector investment.

Noboa won with a difference of about 1.1mn votes out of the 10.5mn Ecuadorians that voted, the CNE said. He called the results overwhelmingly in his favor, speaking from his residency in Santa Elena province. He will hold office through May 2029.

The Organization of American States (OAS) declared the voting process normal based on the participation of 84 of its observers. None of the 40,000 observers from Gonzalez's Revolucion Ciudadana party or Noboa's ADN party denounced irregularities.

Noboa will continue in power with no single party holding a majority in the national assembly, Ecuador's 151-member unicameral congress, based on results from the 9 February congressional and first-round presidential election. Revolucion Ciudadana will have the first minority with 67 members, followed by ADN with 66 members and 18 members from another five parties.

Noboa will be sworn in on 24 May. He took office in November 2023 to fulfill the mandate of former president Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved the national assembly in May 2023 and called for anticipated elections.

By Alberto Araujo

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17/04/25

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent

17/04/25

BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent

London, 17 April (Argus) — BP's chairman Helge Lund took the brunt of a mini-revolt against the strategy pivot that the company announced in late February , as he saw support for his re-election slide at the firm's annual general meeting (AGM) in London today. Lund — who already plans to step down from his role as BP's chair — saw the proportion of votes cast in favour of his re-election drop to 75.7pc, well down on the 95.89pc support he secured at last year's AGM. Prior to this year's meeting, climate activist shareholder group Follow This had said that a vote against Lund was still required to signal concern about BP's governance in the absence of a "say-on-climate" vote following the company's recent strategy revamp which included dropping a 2030 limit on its oil and gas production and investing less on low-carbon assets. Institutional investor Legal and General said last week that it would be voting against the re-election of Lund and that it is "deeply concerned" about the company's strategy change. Commenting on today's vote, Follow This said BP's shareholders had "delivered an unprecedented high level of dissent" that signals deep investor concern about climate and governance. The vote "sends a clear signal" that Lund's successor "needs to be climate and transition competent" and show "resistance to short-term activists", the group added. US activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which has a track record of forcing change at resources companies, has reportedly built a stake of around 5pc in BP . Lund told shareholders at the meeting that BP had carried out "extensive engagement" concerning its strategy change, including sounding out 75pc of its institutional shareholder base, and that a majority did not want a "say-on-climate" vote. He also insisted that the recent strategy shift had been very carefully considered by BP's board and leadership team. These considerations involved a review of a broad range of scenarios including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's and BP's own ambition to be a net-zero company by 2050. Earlier in the meeting, BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss conceded that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced", noting that despite many areas of strength within BP it went "too far too fast" so that "a fundamental reset was needed". Asked by an investor about how BP plans to mitigate the effects of the tariffs on imports to the US imposed by President Donald Trump this month , Auchincloss said the company was "tracking the situation carefully". The steel and aluminium tariffs that have been introduced by Washington should not affect BP's onshore business in the US but there are some impacts on the speciality steels the firm brings into the US for its offshore facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico, he said. Auchincloss received 97.3pc of shareholder votes in favour of his re-election, while finance chief Kate Thomson received 98.7pc support for her re-election. All other directors, apart from Lund, received votes greater than 92.9pc in favour of their re-election. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid

17/04/25

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid

Mumbai, 17 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled upstream firm ONGC has won 15 of the 28 blocks offered for bidding in the ninth round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's (HELP's) Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP). Three of these were with ONGC's joint venture with state-run Oil India, while another was in a consortium with BP and private-sector refiner Reliance Industries (RIL). This is the first time BP, RIL and ONGC have partnered and won a shallow-water block in the Saurashtra basin. ONGC has a 40pc stake in the consortium, with RIL and BP having 30pc each, a trading source said. RIL-BP had jointly won an ultra-deepwater block in the Krishna Godavari basin in the eighth round. Private-sector Vedanta, which had bid for all 28 oil and gas blocks, won seven blocks. Oil India won six blocks on its own and three in collaboration with ONGC. Private-sector firm Sun Petrochemicals, which had bid for seven blocks in this ninth round, did not secure any blocks. Interest from the private sector was relatively higher in this bidding round, but it remains mostly dominated by state-controlled firms. Foreign participation in the Indian exploration sector remains low. The ninth round saw 28 blocks auctioned(https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2524414) across an area of 136,596.45 km². India has awarded 144 exploration and production blocks comprising a total area of 242,055 km² in eight previous rounds. India in March passed the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill 2024 , which aims to simplify regulations, attract investment, and enhance exploration and production capabilities. It also allows granting oil leases on stable terms, along with sharing of production facilities and infrastructure. It also scrapped the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production in December 2024. The ministry said it is working on new frameworks to address challenges related to the upstream sector. India imports around 89pc of its crude requirements, despite efforts to reduce its dependency on imports. Crude imports in January-February rose by over 1pc on the year to 5.01mn b/d, oil ministry data show. During the same period, its total crude production fell by over 1pc from a year earlier to 539,000 b/d. By Roshni Devi India OALP blocks ninth bidding round Basin Type Block Area (km²) Awardee Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/1 9,514.63 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/2 9,844.72 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/3 7,795.45 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2023/1 5,330.49 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/1 5,585.61 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/2 5,453.96 ONGC - BPXA – RIL Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/1 2,939.56 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2023/1 ,5408.79 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/1 7,699.00 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/2 8,446.28 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/2 2,977.28 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/3 2,793.08 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2022/2 7,13.92 ONGC- OIL Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/1 1,873.66 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/1 446 OIL Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/2 636 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/3 416 ONGC Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/2 477 Vedanta Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/1 9,466.85 ONGC - OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/2 9,425.84 OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/3 9,831.48 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/1 9,495.16 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/2 9,223.22 OIL Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/1 2,935.19 ONGC Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/2 1,749.74 Vedanta Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/2 784 ONGC - OIL Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/3 2,168.09 OIL Kutch Basin Shallow water GK-OSHP_x0002_2023/1 3,164.61 ONGC Source: Oil ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US' Chinese ship port fee decision Thursday: USTR

16/04/25

US' Chinese ship port fee decision Thursday: USTR

New York, 16 April (Argus) — The US Trade Representative's (USTR) office said it will release details Thursday on proposed fees for operators of Chinese-built ships calling at US ports. The closely-watched proposals — part of President Donald Trump's plan to kick-start a flagging US shipbuilding industry and challenge Chinese dominance in the sector — were the subject of hearings and public comments last month in Washington, DC. The original proposal included fees of up to $1.5mn per port call for ships based on the percentage of Chinese-built vessels in an operator's fleet. Shipping market participants said the proposals could significantly curtail US import and exports and hurt the broader economy. Higher costs for shipping would likely be passed on to US consumers . Since the public hearings, the USTR has signaled that the fees would likely be less onerous than under the original proposal, and that not all of them would be implemented . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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