UN carbon market advances on leakage, baseline issues

Spanish Market: Emissions
15/04/25

The UN's climate arm the UNFCCC has further refined rules relating to greenhouse gas (GHG) leakage and emissions reduction baselines for generating credits under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (Pacm).

The mechanism's methodological expert panel drew up a draft standard on addressing GHG leakage at its fifth meeting last week, clarifying definitions such as "positive" and "negative" leakage, the "activity boundary" and "controlled" sources of GHG. The standard clarifies that the avoidance or minimisation of leakage only applies to negative leakage, even while avoidance of leakage is not possible in all instances. The standard will apply to both emission reductions and removals, and will focus on project-level activities, with a future version to address larger-scale activities such as national crediting programmes.

And a draft standard on setting the baseline against which emissions reductions are measured, to prevent over-crediting, outlined the importance of ensuring that the downward adjusted historical baseline of emissions is at least as low as the conservative business-as-usual scenario. The panel proposed future regular revisions of the standard to allow for advances in best available technology, or for mitigation actions implemented at larger and therefore more cost-efficient scales.

The panel also suggested some guidance may be needed to determine the scenario for certain types of carbon removal activities.

The two draft standards will be put to the Pacm regulator — the supervisory body of the mechanism's governing Article 6.4 of the Paris climate agreement — for adoption. The panel was set up in early 2024 after countries at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in December 2023 threw out the supervisory body's proposals for the mechanism.

The panel at its meeting also made progress on the concept of "suppressed demand", which must be taken into account by the Pacm to allow some increase in emissions to enable a host country's socio-economic development.

It agreed on the conservative level of 1,000kWh/per capita to "minimise" over-crediting.

The panel also progressed on addressing the non-permanence of emissions reductions, with a focus on instances of late, incomplete or missing monitoring reports, deciding on appropriate notification timing and relevant consequences.

And it continued work on revising methodologies from the Pacm's predecessor, the clean development mechanism (CDM). The Pacm's first credits will be from transitioned CDM projects. But from next year, all Pacm credits must adhere to their own methodologies.

The panel will next meet at the end of May. Stakeholders planning to propose new methodologies and methodological tools for consideration at that meeting must submit them by 21 April.

By Chloe Jardine

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29/04/25

Thailand’s PTTEP posts higher 1Q oil, gas sales

Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — Thai state-controlled upstream firm PTTEP's oil and gas sales rose in the first quarter of 2025, but revenues fell slightly on a decline in crude prices. PTTEP's sales over January-March totalled 484,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), up by 2pc from the same period a year earlier on higher production from its G1/61 project and a rise in crude oil sales from the Malaysia Block K project. But sales dropped by 3pc on the quarter, primarily because of lower crude oil and condensate sales from its overseas projects — namely Oman's Blocks 6 and 61, and Algeria's Hassi Bir Rekaiz project — and a drop in gas sales volumes because of a maintenance shutdown at its G2/61 project. The firm has signed an amendment to the gas sales agreement for its Arthit project to raise the daily contracted quantity of natural gas supplied to parent company and trading firm PTT from 280mn ft³/d to 330mn ft³/d from June onwards. This is to "help address domestic natural gas demand and reinforce national energy security," said the firm. PTTEP in April acquired additional stakes in Apico, a joint venture partner in the Sinphuhorm onshore oil field in northeastern Thailand, raising its share from 80.487pc to 90pc. This has in turn led to a higher share of production volumes from the project, which produced an average of 105mn ft³/d of gas and 222 b/d of condensate in 2024. The company is also currently progressing towards taking a final investment decision (FID) on its Arthit carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Front-end engineering design for the project has been completed and the firm is currently preparing agreements, it said. PTTEP aims to reduce 700,000-1mn t/yr of CO2 emissions through this CCS project. The firm recorded revenues of $2.185bn for January-March, down by 1pc on the year and by 9pc on the quarter. Its average selling price fell to $45.74/boe on a decline in crude prices, said the firm. This resulted in the firm's profit for the first quarter falling by about 7pc on the year and by 9pc on the quarter to $488mn. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Environmental markets wary of Trump's next moves

28/04/25

Environmental markets wary of Trump's next moves

Houston, 28 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's recent threat of legal challenges against state climate and clean energy policies has roiled environmental markets waiting to learn the scope and avenues those confrontations could take. Trump's 8 April executive order, which directed the Department of Justice (DOJ) to consider contesting state policies that threaten "American energy dominance", targeted California's cap-and-trade program by name, but it may also extend to other policies, including renewable portfolio standards (RPS). But uncertainty about the extent of the administration's ambitions has injected another variable into an already volatile economic landscape. Market anxieties may not fade soon. US attorney general Pam Bondi has until early June to report on actions she has taken and make recommendations for other steps by the White House or Congress. Conservatives in some states already have asked her to scrutinize particular programs. Administration arguments One angle from which the DOJ could attack state programs is the well-trod "dormant Commerce Clause", a legal doctrine that says state laws cannot discriminate against or impose undue burdens on another state's economic activity. But such a challenge is more difficult if a program is merely stipulating, "if you want to come to our state, our electricity market or our fuel market, here are the rules to play by", according to Matthew Dobbins, a partner at Vinson & Elkins and member of the law firm's environment and natural resources team in Houston. Courts have dismissed lawsuits that tried this approach against low-carbon fuel standards in California and Oregon , as well Colorado's RPS. In addition, an appeals court last year threw out a case against Washington's cap-and-invest program, ruling it did not overstep in its handling of in-state versus out-of-state electricity suppliers. The US Supreme Court may soon decide whether to hear an appeal of the case. More broadly, a 2023 Supreme Court decision upholding a California law restricting interstate pork sales based on animal treatment makes such dormant Commerce Clause challenges "a lot harder", according to Nico van Aelstyn, partner at Sheppard Mullin in San Francisco. The DOJ could try using the "Equal Sovereignty" doctrine, which stipulates that one state's rights cannot exceed another's, van Aelstyn said. This has been used in cases against California's vehicle emissions standards and other states' climate "superfund" laws, which penalize oil and gas companies for historical emissions. But van Aelstyn described it as "not really tested yet." That administration has also been hoping to fast-track Supreme Court rulings on the executive orders by justifying them through "declared emergencies," according to Dobbins. This use of emergency powers will likely reveal how far the court will go to "pressure test" the administration's requests for speedy judicial relief, as justices work through a growing emergency docket through the end of term in June or July. Relitigating the past Amid growing trade tensions between the US and Canada, the DOJ could also revive a 2019 lawsuit against California's cap-and-trade program. A US district court at the time ruled that federal purview over foreign affairs does not preempt the state linking its program with Quebec's. Although the first Trump administration appealed the ruling, former president Joe Biden withdrew the case, leaving the matter undecided with one claim potentially still ripe for judicial review. "What that'll probably come down to is how much Canada has expressed its anger . . . and if the administration is willing to go 'all in' on trying to provoke one of our largest trading partners," Dobbins said. But even if California severed ties with Quebec, the province is a small part of the market, and its absence is unlikely to cripple the state's program. Meanwhile, in the markets… Trump's executive order has put states and US companies alike on the back foot, adding to a "shock and awe" barrage from tariffs and potential rollbacks to federal clean electricity incentives , said Tom Harper, a partner on consultant Baringa's energy advisory team in New York City. That volatility has led clean energy developers and buyers to hold off on decisions until they have a bit more stability. "You're almost in a state of paralysis because you can't go and deploy a team on a project. You can't go and arrange finance because the cost is moving day to day," Harper said. The tariffs have also fed growing concerns about the US economy, which have spilled into environmental markets. The California Carbon Allowance (CCA) market, already a bit bearish because of ongoing delays to planned program changes, plunged the day after Trump's executive order. Argus assessed CCAs for December delivery that day at $26.74/t — at the time their lowest price since November 2022. The lack of certainty around federal legal developments continues to whittle away at bullish signals, leaving market participants to wait for a clear outcome. Adding another layer of uncertainty is the fact that disputes may spill outside of the court system. Following the same logic as of Trump's " national energy emergency ", the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) could hypothetically issue an emergency order to halt carbon and clean energy programs. The recent resignation of a Democratic commissioner, giving Trump the ability to install a Republican majority, could facilitate that pathway. But using FERC to shutter these programs would be on weak legal footing, van Aelstyn said. The Trump administration has no issue using extrajudicial tools to enforce its policies, such as its January pause on federal funding that left states like California — which receives more than $100bn in backing and grants from the US government each fiscal year — grappling with potential budget holes. Two federal courts have said the administration must dole out the funds, but agencies have been slow to comply. "If they can withhold congressionally appropriated research funds for universities because they don't like their policies with regard to free speech on their campuses, what else might they do?" van Aelstyn said. "Withhold Medicaid funding to states where they don't like their renewable energy standards?" By Denise Cathey and Patrick Zemanek Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

28/04/25

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

Sao Paulo, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil's finance, environment and agriculture ministries will host a second auction to recover 1mn hectares (ha) of degraded lands in all Brazilian biomes except the Amazon, the national treasury said on Monday. The auction will be a part of Eco Invest, a currency-hedging program targeting renewable and low-carbon projects to draw foreign investment, announced in February 2024. The finance ministry and central bank developed the program with the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. The auction is part of New Brazil, a wider energy transition project within the finance ministry. The project aims to finance conversions of degraded lands in different biomes to sustainable and productive ecosystems through private investments. The Amazon biome, the most hit by deforestation, will receive a "customized and exclusive auction" that will be announced later, the environment ministry said. Participants must submit project proposals to the national treasury by 13 June. The government expects to raise up to R10bn ($1.76bn) in the auction. Land-use change and deforestation Emissions from land-use change and deforestation in Brazil reached 1.06bn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2023, down by 24pc from a year earlier, according to greenhouse gas tracking platform SEEG. These activities have been leading Brazil's total emissions since 1990 — when historic tracking began — followed by agriculture and cattle raising and the energy sectors. There are currently 280mn ha of farmlands, of which around 29pc are degraded. The government aims to recover up to 40mn ha of grasslands in the next 10 years, the environment and climate change ministry said. The Eco Invest auction will finance the first round of the initiative, dubbed the Green Way program, according to the agriculture ministry. Brazil aims to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 67pc by 2035 from its 2005 levels and sees reducing deforestation as one of its main ways to achieve that goal. The country will host the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem city, in the Amazon biome, as the administration looks to lead the global energy transition . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

28/04/25

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

Washington, 28 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump has started to impede development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector. Trump has attacked wind turbines and solar projects as part of a "Green New Scam" that should not be built, based on his preference for the fossil fuel-fired and nuclear power plants he says are more reliable and affordable. Trump selected a cabinet of like-minded individuals who oppose renewables and see little urgency to address climate change. He was elected to end the "nonsense" of building renewable resources that are heavily subsidised, make the grid less reliable and raise costs, energy secretary Chris Wright said in an interview on Earth Day. Interior secretary Doug Burgum on 16 April ordered Norwegian state-controlled Equinor to "immediately halt" construction of the 810MW Empire Wind project off New York. Trump had already ordered a freeze on future offshore wind leases , and suspending Empire Wind's permits is likely to spook investors even outside the renewables sphere. To reverse course on a fully permitted project is "bad policy" that "sends a chilling signal to all energy investment", American Clean Power Association chief executive Jason Grumet says. The US last week separately said it would impose anti-dumping duties on solar components imported from four southeast Asian countries that will range from 15pc to 3,400pc. Those duties — in effect from June to support US solar manufacturers — will be in addition to a 10pc across-the-board tariff the US imposed this month on most imports. Solar industry groups have said that steep import duties will make new installations unaffordable, stunting the industry's ability to grow. Trump has had less success in his push to axe support for renewables approved under Joe Biden. On 15 April, a federal judge ordered the administration to unfreeze billions of dollars for clean energy projects provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and 2021 infrastructure law. The administration lacks "unfettered power to hamstring in perpetuity two statutes", judge Mary McElroy wrote. In a separate ruling on 15 April, judge Tanya Chutkan prohibited the administration from suspending $14bn in grants distributed to nonprofits under the IRA for a greenhouse gas reduction programme. The administration is appealing both rulings. Targeting the windfall Trump could further undermine the growth of renewables by convincing Republicans in Congress to use an upcoming filibuster-proof budget package to repeal or narrow the IRA's tax credits for wind, solar and other clean energy projects. Critics of that law see the potential for $1 trillion in savings by repealing its tax credits, which could offset the costs of more than $5 trillion in planned tax cuts. But there appear to be enough votes in each chamber of Congress to spare at least some of the IRA's energy tax credits. In the Senate, where Republicans can only afford to lose three votes, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski and three other Republicans signed a joint letter this month saying "wholesale repeal" of the tax credits would fuel uncertainty and undermine job creation. In the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a similarly slim majority, 21 Republicans voiced concerns earlier this year about repealing all of the tax credits. Renewables are on track to overtake natural gas as the largest source of US electricity by 2030 — assuming the tax credits and climate rules enacted under Biden remain intact — the EIA stated this month in its Annual Energy Outlook . The amount of power from renewables under the EIA's existing policy baseline by 2035 will increase by 135pc to 2.8bn MWh, while gas-fired power will decline by 14pc to 1.6bn MWh over the same time period. By Chris Knight Baseline US net power generation Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity

25/04/25

Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity

Transition aligning with energy security and more Chinese climate leadership may reinforce co-operation despite the US withdrawal, writes Georgia Gratton London, 25 April (Argus) — The UN, IEA and countries including the UK and Brazil — which hosts this year's UN Cop 30 climate summit — stepped up efforts this week to demonstrate common ground and build unity on climate action and the energy transition. Organisations and countries are looking to capitalise on areas of commonality in order to preserve climate action, as the US administration repeatedly pushes back on measures to tackle climate change and moves to curb the energy transition. A virtual meeting convened this week by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, drew 17 world leaders to commit to keeping climate action a key priority. "Leaders need reassurance that they're not acting alone," a senior UN official says. "Collaboration and multilateralism still matter," a senior Brazilian official says. Cop 30, which will take place in November in the Amazonian city of Belem, will "have a different dynamic", the official adds. "We want to prove that multilateralism is not only about negotiating documents… but about making them real." China's president, Xi Jinping, participated in this week's high-level meeting, the UN confirmed. While the US — the world's second-highest emitter — has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, China is continuing to step forward on climate action. It remains the highest-emitting country by some way, but this week reiterated a commitment to a new climate plan for the period to 2035, covering "all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases", Guterres said. The EU this week noted China's co-operation at Cop 29 — where it was widely viewed as projecting leadership on climate — setting the scene for new climate alliances. While the US government pushes back on clean energy and climate action, support for the energy transition remains strong at sub-national level, from many US state governors, and from the private sector . A poll from three NGOs, including the UK's E3G, this week found that of nearly 1,500 business executives — including in the US — 97pc supported a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The majority of the world has held firm on climate commitments. Heads of state and government of jurisdictions including the EU, several G20 economies and developing nations committed to submitting "ambitious and robust [climate] plans", Guterres said after the meeting. Renewable security Organisations and countries have been careful to underline that different national circumstances will mean that jurisdictions take different approaches to tackling climate change. Although this is a key tenet of the Paris agreement, it also remains a bone of contention in multilateral talks. But the co-hosts of this week's energy security summit, the UK government and energy watchdog the IEA, put the issue front and centre. "Different pathways for different nations should be respected," UK energy minister Ed Miliband told the summit. The almost 60 governments that the UK and IEA hosted will have "different approaches to energy security based on their nation's circumstances and policies", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's determination to double down on its energy transition, but also extended a nod to the US for its LNG supply as the bloc pivoted away from imports of Russian gas. But many note that achieving energy security is well aligned with a transition to renewable energy. The UK's path "is a hard-headed approach to the role of low carbon power as the route to energy security", Miliband said, while the cost of renewable power is now the cheapest option for the majority of the world. "The pathway out of climate hell is paved by renewables," Guterres said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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