Water levels delay Tennessee River lock reopening

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Oil products, Petroleum coke
24/04/25

The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will delay the reopening of the Tennessee River's Wilson Lock by three weeks after high floodwater disrupted repair plans.

The Wilson Lock is now planned to reopen in mid-June or July, the Corps said this week. The lock's main chamber has been closed since September after severe cracks were found in the structure.

The Corps initiated evacuation procedures so personnel and equipment could be removed before any water entered the dewatered lock and ruined repairs after high water appeared too close to the lock's edge. The water did not crest above the temporary barrier the Corps installed to keep water out.

Delays at the lock averaged around 10 days as of 24 April, according to the Corps. Barge carriers fees have been in place for each barge that must pass through the auxiliary chamber of the lock since 25 September, when the lock first closed. Restricted barge movement placed upward pressure on fertilizer prices in surrounding areas as well.

The lock still requires structural repairs to the main chamber gates, including the replacement of the pintle components, the Corps said.

This is the fourth opening delay the Corps have issued for the Wilson Lock, with the prior opening dates being in November, then April and then in June. The Wilson Lock will enter its eighth month of repairs next month.

By Meghan Yoyotte and Sneha Kumar

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11/05/25

India, Pakistan reach US-mediated, fragile ceasefire

Dubai, 11 May (Argus) — A US-mediated ceasefire reached on Saturday between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan is still holding, following four days of intense fighting. "After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE," US president Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday. India and Pakistan will now start negotiations on a broad set of issues at a neutral site, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on social media platform X. India's military on 7 May launched attacks against targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in retaliation for an April terrorist attack that killed dozens. But by Saturday, the two countries seemed to be edging toward all-out war, as their militaries targeted each other's bases. India's foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar confirmed the ceasefire, saying on X that "India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do so." Pakistan "responded positively to the ceasefire proposal for regional and global peace, and its people and I hope that dialogue will now be chosen for resolution of water and Kashmir disputes," Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address. Trump also praised leaders of both countries for agreeing to halt the aggression and said he would "substantially" increase trade with them, although this was "not even discussed". Kashmir is a contested area between India and Pakistan, and the two have twice gone to a war over the region. Fear of the conflict spreading roiled global financial markets. India is the region's second-biggest oil buyer after China — importing around 4.5mn b/d last year — and a major customer for other commodities, including LNG and coal. Pakistan also imports fertilizers, coal, oil products and LNG. The escalation between the two severely limited direct trade between them. Airlines in the region as well as some Mideast Gulf carriers rerouted or cancelled flights to avoid Pakistani airspace. But the Pakistan Airports Authority said on Saturday that "Pakistan's airspace has been fully reopened for all types of flights." By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iraq edging towards compliance under Opec+ pressure

09/05/25

Iraq edging towards compliance under Opec+ pressure

Dubai, 9 May (Argus) — Iraq managed to produce just below its formal Opec+ crude production target in April for the second month in a row, following intense pressure from other members of the group to improve on its historically poor compliance record. But the country still has much to do to compensate for past overproduction. Over the last 16 months, Iraq has been among the Opec+ group's most prolific quota-busters, alongside Kazakhstan and, to a lesser degree, Russia. Argus estimates the country's output averaged over 130,000 b/d above its 4mn b/d target last year. This non-compliance has strained unity within Opec+ and was the driving force behind the group's recent decision to unwind production cuts at a much faster pace than originally planned. Iraq has made some progress on improving compliance this year, reducing production by around 190,000 b/d in the first four months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, according to Argus assessments. Output stood at 3.94mn b/d in April, which was more than 70,000 b/d below Baghdad's formal 4.01mn b/d quota for the month. And in March, Iraq was 20,000 b/d below its then 4mn b/d quota. But this is far from mission accomplished. Along with other overproducers, Iraq has agreed a plan to compensate for exceeding formal quotas since the start of 2024, yet it has fallen short of its commitments in that regard. April's output was almost 50,000 b/d above its 3.89mn b/d effective quota for the month, taking into account the compensation plan. Iraq attributes its compliance issues to ongoing disagreements with the semi-autonomous Kurdish region over crude production levels. The oil ministry claims it lost oversight of the Kurdish region's production since the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) was closed in March 2023. Despite the pipeline closure shutting Kurdish producers out of international export markets, Argus assesses current output in the Kurdistan region ranges between 250,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, of which considerable volumes are smuggled into Iran and Turkey at hefty discounts to market prices. An understanding between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), when implemented, would see Kurdish production average 300,000 b/d, with 185,000 b/d shipped through the ITP and the rest directed to local refineries. Peer pressure Despite the challenges, it is hard to argue that Iraq is not heading in the right direction. Pressure from the Opec Secretariat and the Opec+ alliance's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has pushed Baghdad to take some tough decisions to rein in production, which include cutting crude exports and limiting crude intake at domestic refineries. Kpler data show Iraqi crude exports, excluding the Kurdish region, fell to 3.34mn b/d in January-April from 3.42mn b/d a year earlier, while cuts to domestic refinery runs have prompted Baghdad to increase gasoil imports to ensure it has enough fuel for power generation. Fearing revenue constraints, Iraq is trying to persuade Opec+ to increase its output quota, motivated by a previous upward revision to the UAE's target. Baghdad's budget for 2022-25 includes plans to spend $153bn/yr. But this is based on a crude price assumption of $70/bl and projected oil exports of 3.5mn b/d, both of which now look out of date. By Bachar Halabi and James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025

09/05/25

Ethiopia’s EABC still needs up to 400,000t DAP in 2025

London, 9 May (Argus) — Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) will close a tender to buy 425,390t of DAP on 13 May. Argus estimates it needs to secure the majority of this volume to meet the country's phosphates demand for the 2025 application season. Across all tenders to buy DAP that EABC opened between August 2024-May 2025, the importer awarded 1.16mn t across 18 cargoes. Of this awarded total, Argus estimates only up to 750,000t is likely to be delivered to Ethiopia in a timely manner. This is because some of these awarded cargoes — largely Chinese — did not have firm backing from producers. And the bulk of the awarded Chinese cargoes — which made up almost half of all the awarded cargoes — were not shipped while Chinese producers focused on covering domestic demand. In recent years, Ethiopia had imported phosphate in the form of NPS and NPSB through EABC tenders, generally all from Morocco. But in August 2024, ahead of the 2025 domestic season, EABC switched from importing NPS to asking for DAP 18-46. In its last tender to buy NPS, issued in August 2023, EABC asked for around 1mn t of NPSB and 332,000t of NPS containing 37.7pc and 38pc P2O5, respectively. On a P2O5 basis, the 2023 NPS tender asked for a total of around 1.1mn t of DAP-equivalent. This implies EABC needs to line up a further 350,000-400,000t of DAP, assuming a similar demand for P2O5 as last year. Argus line-up data shows 1.046mn t of NPS shipped from Morocco's Jorf Lasfar to Djibouti in the 12 months following August 2023. On a P2O5 basis, this is probably equivalent to only around 900,000t of DAP. EABC would need to buy 150,000-200,000t more to reach this level. Chinese DAP will probably dominate offers into EABC's 13 May tender. After a hiatus of around six months, Chinese suppliers will likely be able to apply for customs inspections under the CIQ system from mid-May for DAP and MAP cargoes. This implies Chinese DAP exports will resume from as early as late May, in time to meet EABC's requirements. Time running out for Ethiopia's season EABC is likely to struggle to secure the remaining DAP needed before the end of Ethiopia's domestic season. Planting during Ethiopia's Meher — the main rainy season — broadly spans from March to June. In its latest tender to buy DAP, closing on 13 May, EABC asked for a loading period up to mid-July. In 2024, the final cargoes under EABC's 2023-24 tender to buy NPS had already arrived in Djibouti by that time. Under the 23 April and 13 May EABC tenders, cargoes loading in June — particularly from closer origins like Saudi Arabia — could still arrive in time to service the tail end of Ethiopia's DAP season. But the bulk of the country's application season will likely have been missed by then. EABC's next tenders will likely be targeting supply for the 2026 domestic season. DAP is more expensive Tender awards are limited by EABC's allocation of funds for DAP before offers are collected. The importer received eight 60,000t offers ranging from $696.27-748.00/t fob with 30 days of credit in its 23 April tender, and awarded only the lowest offer before scrapping the tender and issuing a fresh one. It rejected revised offers in its 20 February and 25 March tenders, which were above its counterbids at $625/t fob and $647.19/t fob, respectively. Awards in the 13 May tender will likely remain difficult because prices in the global DAP market have risen. DAP prices in India — the global DAP benchmark and a key competitor to Ethiopia — are now around $720/t cfr, up significantly from $590/t cfr at the beginning of August 2024. DAP could go elsewhere Any DAP which Ethiopia does not acquire will find willing buyers elsewhere in south and southeast Asia. India began May with around 1.64mn t of DAP in stock — well below a comfortable 2mn t minimum — and will need to boost imports to build its inventories. Bangladesh will likely issue a private-sector tender in the coming weeks, probably seeking around 500,000t or more of DAP. China is traditionally its main supplier, especially through its private-sector tenders. Demand in southeast Asia has generally seen an uptick because of high rainfall, and many buyers have been holding out for the resumption of Chinese exports. DAP prices have reached $700-715/t cfr southeast Asia on latest sales, but offers are climbing higher. And Pakistan will likely step into the import market to secure tonnes for July-August arrival, ahead of the peak of its domestic season from the end of the third quarter. EABC received offers for Jordanian and Saudi Arabian DAP loading in May in its 23 April tender. It rejected the offers, allowing India to buy probably the same cargoes at $719.50/t cfr earlier this month. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

White House ends use of carbon cost

09/05/25

White House ends use of carbon cost

Washington, 9 May (Argus) — The US is ending its use of a metric for estimating the economic damages from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the latest reversal of climate change policies supported by President Donald Trump's predecessors. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) this week directed federal agencies to stop using the social cost of carbon as part of any regulatory or decision-making practices, except in cases where it is required by law, citing the need "remove any barriers put in place by previous administrations" that restrict the ability of the US to get the most benefit "from our abundant natural resources". "Under this guidance, the circumstances where agencies will need to engage in monetized greenhouse gas emission analysis will be few to none," OMB said in a 5 May memo to federal agencies. In cases where such an analysis is required by law, agencies should limit their work "to the minimum consideration required" and address only the domestic effects, unless required by law. OMB said these steps are needed to ensure sound regulatory decisions and avoid misleading the public because the uncertainties of such analyses "are too great". The budget office issued the guidance in response to an executive order Trump issued on his first day in office, which also disbanded an interagency working group on the social cost of carbon and called for faster permitting for domestic oil and gas production and the termination of various orders issued by former president Joe Biden related to combating climate change. The metric, first established by the administration of former US president Barack Obama, has been subject to a tug of war between Democrats and Republicans. Trump, in his first term, slashed the value of the social cost of carbon, a move Biden later reversed . Biden then directed agencies to fold the metric into their procurement processes and environmental reviews. The US began relying on the cost estimate in 2010, offering a way to estimate the full costs and benefits of climate-related regulations. The Biden administration estimated the global cost of emitting CO2 at $120-$340/metric tonne and included it in rules related to cars, trucks, residential appliances, ozone standards, methane emission rules, refineries and federal oil and gas leases. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

09/05/25

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

Sao Paulo, 9 May (Argus) — Brazil's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.53pc in April, accelerating for a third month despite six central bank rate hikes since September aimed at cooling the economy. The country's annualized inflation accelerated from 5.48pc in March and 5.06pc in February, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Food and beverages rose by an annual 7.81pc, up from 7.68pc in March. Ground coffee increased at an annual 80.2pc, accelerating from 77.78pc in the month prior. Still, soybean oil prices decelerated to 22.83pc in April from 24.36pc in March. Domestic power consumption costs rose to 0.71pc from 0.33pc a month earlier. Transportation costs decelerated to 5.49pc from 6.05pc in March. Gasoline prices slowed to a 8.86pc gain from 10.89pc a month earlier. The increase in ethanol and diesel prices decelerated as well to 13.9pc and 6.42pc in April from 20.08pc and 8.13pc in March, respectively. The hike in compressed natural gas prices (CNG) fell to 3.5pc from 3.92pc a month prior. Inflation posted the seventh consecutive monthly increase above the central bank's goal of 3pc, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank increased its target interest rate for the sixth time in a row to 14.75pc on 7 May. The bank has been trying to counter soaring inflation as it has recently changed the way it tracks its goal. Monthly cooldown But Brazil's monthly inflation decelerated to 0.43pc in April from a 0.56pc gain in March. Food and beverages decelerated on a monthly basis to 0.82pc in April from a 1.17pc increase a month earlier, according to IBGE. Housing costs also decelerated to 0.24pc from 0.14pc in March. Transportation costs contracted by 0.38pc and posted the largest monthly contraction in April. Diesel prices posted the largest contraction at 1.27pc in April. Petrobras made three diesel price readjustments in April-May. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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