Shifting incentives bring uncertainty, limit liquidity in spot California R99 markets
Summer has brought record low R99 cash prices — and nearly 3.2mn bl of vessel-supplied renewable diesel — to key California distribution hubs, but those seeking to take long-term supply positions must grapple with changing incentive programs and yet unseen consequences for supply flows.
Looking ahead to the end of 2024, the future of RD supply is murky. Changing credit eligibility could discourage the volume of imports the west coast has grown accustomed to, domestic refining margins at the US Gulf coast have been indicated on the decline for much of the year, and a volatile underlying CARB diesel basis increases participants’ exposure to price risk.
Cash prices for R99 at the head of the pipeline (hop) in Los Angeles hit their lowest level in Argus series history on 6 August, when a downturn in the underlying CARB diesel basis pressured values to just $2.35/USG. The price slide, coupled with anecdotally unworkable spreads to local rack prices, weighed heavily on activity this summer, despite a steady stream of offshore shipments.
Deliveries via vessel to northern California in August were the second highest in Argus history at an estimated 741,000 bl — the latest in steady monthly increases since June — per data aggregated from bills of lading and global trade and analytics platform Kpler. Jones Act vessels from the US Gulf coast alone accounted for 448,000 bl, while shipments ex-Singapore constituted the remaining volume.
Southern California received an estimated 847,000 bl, almost evenly split between offshore suppliers and those at the US Gulf coast.
But the future of renewable diesel supply flows into California is mired with uncertainty surrounding incentives for both importers and domestic refiners. The BTC is set to expire with the 2024 calendar year, giving way to the IRA’s Clean Fuel Production Credit. The change would heavily favor US-based renewable diesel production and reduce awards for high-volume offshore imports to the US west coast, the latest pivot for an adolescent market that has struggled to achieve supply equilibrium.
Waterborne renewable diesel deliveries to California ports
.png?h=291&w=800&rev=-1&hash=805DEE6681CA9F3678BC5E88DD75A8F7)
Neste — the leading offshore supplier of US R99 — is also slated to undergo turnarounds at both its Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Singapore facilities this quarter, followed by a second short-term Singapore turnaround in the fourth quarter. But the import lineup so far does not reflect a disruption in deliveries to the US this quarter.
At home, refining margins at the US Gulf coast are indicated on the upswing after narrowing through early August.
Renewable diesel deliveries to the west coast by rail from other US regions reached a record-high of nearly 2mn bl in May, per data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments by vessel are also trending higher, with an estimated 864,000 bl delivered to California in August — the highest since November.
.png?h=447&w=750&rev=-1&hash=523587FB8AC1CF6FBF1C3B391D064F37)
.png?h=397&w=750&rev=-1&hash=300171F16039880C05D3A0D41F8B77AB)
Spot R99 markets in California were little tested at the end of August, although both the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets drew support from a controversial surprise proposal to limit California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation for renewable diesel made from soybean or canola oils. The California Air Resources Board will also consider a one-time tightening of annual carbon reduction targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023, per a 12 August release.
But an unsteady economic landscape for domestic production remains a key decision-driver among US refiners.
Vertex Energy will begin reversing a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to conventional fuel feedstocks this quarter at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. The company at the time cited headwinds in the renewable fuels market that it expects to persist through 2025.
Author: Jasmine Davis, Editor, Associate Editor – Oil Products
Spotlight content
Related news
Lower prices support German fuel demand
Lower prices support German fuel demand
Hamburg, 2 December (Argus) — German demand for heating oil, diesel and E5 gasoline increased in the week to 29 November, supported by a fall in domestic prices. The switch to winter grades and low stocks further boosted fuel demand. Middle distillates traded at lower prices nationwide last week, with heating oil and diesel prices falling by around €0.60/100 litres compared with the previous week. The drop was in line with a decline in the value of Ice gasoil futures, which came under pressure from the prospect of US tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico indicated by president-elect Donald Trump. Oversupply from refineries in the south and west of Germany put further downward pressure on domestic prices last week. Suppliers offered heating oil, diesel and gasoline from Bayernoil's 215,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg complex, Miro's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery and Shell's 334,000 b/d Rhineland complex at lower prices than surrounding loading locations in order to fulfil their contractual offtake volumes by the end of the month. The switch to winter grades supported German fuel demand last week. Consumers ordered smaller quantities of diesel in recent weeks as they waited for the switch to winter specification grades before replenishing their stocks. Since the switch, traded diesel spot volumes reported to Argus have steadily risen. An anticipated €10/t rise in Germany's CO2 tax next year will likely lead to increased stockpiling of product from mid-December, according to traders. End-consumer tank levels for diesel were at just 52pc at the end of last week. The extent to which the increase in the CO2 tax will put pressure on diesel imports depends on whether German refineries can maintain current high throughput levels. For the time being, imports into Germany via the country's northern ports or along the Rhine are not feasible because of the comparatively low domestic prices. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s base oil imports rise in 1H FY24-25
India’s base oil imports rise in 1H FY24-25
Singapore, 2 December (Argus) — India's base oil imports rose by 33pc on the year to 1.54mn t in the first half of the country's 2024-25 fiscal year, between April and September, data from GTT show. Blenders likely imported more cargoes owing to a decrease in domestic base oil production caused by plant issues and maintenances. This happened despite a slowdown in India's economic growth. The country's GDP is estimated to have grown by 6pc in April-September, compared with 8.2pc in the same period in the previous year, government data show. Vehicle sales in the country reached 1.31mn units between April and September, a 12.5pc increase from the previous year, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam). This likely boosted demand for finished lubricant. Base oil imports in September rose for the second consecutive month to 236,427t, as demand increased towards the end of the monsoon season. South Korea continued to be the top supplier to India, with imports reaching 115,487t in September, an 81pc increase from the previous year. By Chng Li Li India base oils imports t Sep'24 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Apr-Sep FY24/25 y-o-y ± % South Korea 115,487 29.9 80.7 648,412 63.4 Singapore 33,356 -4.8 -31.0 215,775 35.2 Spain 22,896 177.6 201.3 80,309 71.0 Saudi Arabia 20,917 21.6 82.1 120,738 11.2 Qatar 11,047 594.3 1,235.8 78,950 41.3 Total 236,427 11.8 22.1 1,537,599 33.2 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hapag-Lloyd buys bio, e-methanol from China's Goldwind
Hapag-Lloyd buys bio, e-methanol from China's Goldwind
London, 29 November (Argus) — Germany-based containership owner Hapag-Lloyd has struck a long-term deal to buy 250,000 t/yr of blended biomethanol and e-methanol from Chinese wind turbine maker and project developer Goldwind. The deal lasts for more than 10 years and is legally binding, Hapag-Lloyd told Argus . Goldwind will supply Hapag-Lloyd with a smaller volume initially in 2026 and ramp up to 250,000 t/yr in late 2027. Hapag-Lloyd expects the initial volumes to largely fulfil demand from the five dual-fuel methanol ships it will operate from 2026, it said. Goldwind earlier this year started building a 500,000 t/yr plant in Hinggan League, northeast China. The so-called "hybrid" plants will make biomethanol and e-methanol, and Goldwind plans to add a second 500,000 t/yr plant in 2027, the shipowner said. Hapag-Lloyd's deal is for volume from the second plant, it added. The ratio of e-methanol in the deal is 30pc but could be raised to 50pc in the plant's lifetime, Hapag-Lloyd said. The fuel ensures greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of at least 70pc to comply with current sustainability certification requirements, Hapag-Lloyd said. This is likely to refer to the FuelEU Maritime definition of low-carbon fuels as cutting GHG emissions by 70pc compared with fossil benchmarks. Goldwind previously struck a deal to supply 500,000 t/yr of the sustainable methanol mix to Danish shipping and logistics firm Maersk from 2026. While methanol appears to be gaining momentum, shipowners are pursuing a range of fuels for future fleets. Hapag-Lloyd last month ordered 24 dual-fuelled LNG containerships for a combined $4bn. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Sweden extends EU ETS 2 application
Sweden extends EU ETS 2 application
London, 28 November (Argus) — The European Commission has approved the application of the new emissions trading system for road transport and buildings (EU ETS 2) to additional sectors in Sweden. Sweden will unilaterally apply the new system to emissions from freight and passenger railway transport, non-commercial leisure boats, airport and harbour off-road machinery, and fuel combustion in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The extension means additional carbon allowances will be issued to the country in 2027, on the basis of emissions from the activities listed calculated at 1.68mn t of CO2 equivalent. Sweden must monitor and report emissions from the additional sectors from 1 January. The EU ETS 2 is due to launch fully in 2027, and will apply in its basic form to fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS, in all the bloc's member states plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The commission approved similar unilateral extensions of the system's scope in the Netherlands and Austria in September. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
