Argus tungsten market update and outlook – June 2024

02/05/25

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure

GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Automaker General Motors (GM) revised its 2025 guidance lower today to reflect $4bn-5bn of exposure to auto tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Full-year 2025 profit guidance was lowered to a $8.2bn-10.1bn range, from the $11.2bn-12.5bn guidance given in the company's fourth quarter earnings call earlier this year. The new guidance takes into account clarifications to tariffs already imposed on automakers earlier this week. GM's tariff exposure includes $2bn of vehicles imported from South Korea and tariffs on autos imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as "indirect material imports." GM said it expects to offset 30pc of the exposure by producing an additional 50,000 full-size trucks/yr at its Fort Wayne, Indiana, plant and expanding battery module assembly in the US. GM will also work to ensure its supply chain is US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) compliant and nearshore its production, executives said. More than 80pc of GM's supply chain is USMCA compliant, most of which is based in the US. US president Donald Trump on 29 April offered to offset a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts scheduled to be imposed on 3 May and to exempt auto parts from accumulating these and and other import tariffs. Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on imported cars on 3 April. GM on 29 April rescheduled its earnings call but released its first quarter earnings on schedule that day. The company reported sales of 693,000 vehicles in the US in the first quarter, up by 17pc from the prior-year quarter. Electric vehicle (EV) sales rose by 94pc to 32,000 units in the same period. Global sales rose by 7pc to 1.44mn vehicles in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024. GM posted a $2.8bn profit in the first quarter, down by 7pc from a year earlier, which was partially attributed to higher costs. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariff pressure, supply relief weigh on tin prices

Tariff pressure, supply relief weigh on tin prices

London, 1 May (Argus) — Downward pressure from US tariffs and easing supply constraints prompted a sharp price drop on the official three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in April, erasing much of the gains made through the first quarter of this year. Prices on the LME's official three-month tin contract dipped to $31,775-$31,825/t on 30 April, down by 20pc from a three-year high of $38,125-38,175/t on 2 April, but up from a month-to-date low of $29,550-29,600/t on 9 April. This decline scrubbed much of the steady increase made over the first quarter when tin prices climbed in response to tighter supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and mining restrictions in Myanmar. Tight concentrate supply drives 1Q price increases Tin prices rose steadily throughout the first quarter after a major escalation in the conflict in eastern DRC interrupted supply from artisanal and industrial cassiterite mining and a major earthquake in Myanmar disrupted plans to lift a mining ban in the autonomous Wa region. Rwanda-backed militia group M23 launched a fresh push through eastern DRC in late January, seizing control of key mineral-trading towns Goma and Bukavu before expanding west towards the town of Walikale and Alphamin's Bisie tin concentrate mine. The 25,000 t/yr capacity mine was evacuated on 13 March, raising concerns about a supply shortage and prompting a 6pc day-on-day increase in the official three-month LME tin contract. Warehouses in Goma and Bukavu that held artisinally mined cassiterite ore also were raided, with multiple containers of material having been stolen, market participants told Argus . These supply concerns were compounded on 28 March when a 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit Myanmar. Authorities in Wa state have upheld a mining ban in the region since August 2023, but in March, they confirmed plans to roll out a licensing scheme that will allow companies to restart mining operations. The earthquake delayed these plans by a few weeks, prompting further concerns about the stability of future supply and causing another spike in the three-month LME tin contract to a three-year high. Myanmar is the third-largest producer of tin concentrates after China and Indonesia, but most of the tin concentrates produced in the country are exported to neighbouring China for processing. Chinese imports of tin concentrates last year fell to 76,000t, from 187,000t in 2022, before the Wa state mining ban. Wa state is home to Man Maw, the largest tin mine in Myanmar. Prices fall in April But despite the first-quarter gains, tin prices faced strong downward pressure in April. Tariff increases announced by US president Donald Trump sparked uncertainty about long-term demand and caused prices to fall by $8,575/t from 2-9 April, a decline of more than 22pc. Trump's April tariff announcements are expected to dampen global trade and triggered fears of an economic recession, which would weigh on demand for base metals such as tin. And the supply constraints that triggered such strong price increases in the first quarter eased after M23 withdrew from towns close to the Bisie mine, enabling Alphamin to implement a phased restart of operations from 15 April. But the towns of Goma and Bukavu, as well as many artisanal mining sites, remain under M23's control. Authorities in Wa state also were able to progress plans to resume mining operations, having officially released details of a new licensing scheme and meeting with Man Maw's former operators on 23 April. But it could take some months for Man Maw's production to ramp up as companies apply for new licenses, Chinese workers apply for visas and parts of the mine's underground sections may need to be de-watered, the International Tin Association said. By Sian Morris Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Non-China automakers cut targets on BEV demand, tariffs

Non-China automakers cut targets on BEV demand, tariffs

London, 30 April (Argus) — Several non-Chinese automakers have retreated from ambitious 2025 targets after a bruising first quarter, as slowing battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand and escalating trade barriers forced widespread guidance suspensions and production cuts. German carmaker Mercedes-Benz Group led the pullback, withdrawing its full-year outlook today after US tariffs and weakening Chinese sales drove a 41pc drop in first-quarter earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) to €2.3bn ($2.5bn). Chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm warned that US import tariffs could erase 3 percentage points from automakers' profit margins, compounding pressure from delayed BEV adoption. Automaker Stellantis also suspended its 2025 guidance today, reporting a 9pc year-on-year drop in first-quarter sales and a 14pc fall in revenue owing to extended North American holiday shutdowns and disruptions as it electrifies more of its fleet. The firm halted production of Chinese partner Leapmotor's T03 BEV in Poland , citing EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, illustrating how trade barriers are impacting western joint ventures with Chinese automakers. Germany's Volkswagen Group has maintained its 2025 outlook but warned that margins would hit the lower end of its 5.5-6.5pc target after first-quarter pre-tax earnings slid by 40pc. The company faces two key challenges — falling demand in China, with a 17pc drop in first-quarter overall car sales in China, and underutilisation of capacity at its European BEV plants . VW Group's chief financial officer Arno Antlitz also acknowledged today that the company has cut its headcount in Germany by about 7,000 since late 2023 on a cost-cutting drive, and that its unchanged guidance does not reflect any impact from US tariffs. US automakers Ford and General Motors (GM) are similarly exposed. Back in February, Ford forecast a net loss of $5.5bn on its EV and software operations for 2025, roughly in line with 2024. This is in spite of an 82pc year-on-year jump in BEV sales in the first quarter — attributed to Tesla's drop in popularity and significant discounts on BEV models. GM suspended its guidance on Tuesday and halted share buybacks after a 6.6pc profit decline — fearing tariff spillovers in the face of a rare $45mn profit in China — despite a 94pc increase in first-quarter EV sales to 31,887 units. Better performing automakers also face a strain. German BMW's first-quarter BEV deliveries rose by 28pc globally, but overall sales fell by 1.4pc as a dip in China of 17.2pc offset gains elsewhere. South Korean automaker Hyundai Group's operating profit rose by 2pc year on year to $2.52bn in January-March, but global sales edged down by 0.6pc, bolstered only by US sales rising by 11pc as consumers rushed to buy vehicles ahead of car tariffs. Tariffs and EU CO2 targets add to pressure Automakers' guidance suspensions also reflect deeper structural pressures as trade barriers on cars and newly announced export controls on some heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium are rocking carefully calibrated supply chains. European automakers rely on Chinese battery materials and US-bound exports, leaving them exposed on two counts. At the same time, the EU's 2025 CO2 rules — requiring a 15pc cut in fleet emissions from 2021 levels — are forcing carmakers to sell BEVs at a loss, according to industry body the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, although clean energy think-tank Transport & Environment disputes this . BEV sales so far this year have risen owing to these targets, despite profitability issues, with a 28pc rise across Europe in the first quarter . Chinese-owned carmakers have faced fewer constraints, although they have retreated from selling BEVs into Europe ( see graph ) after tariffs imposed on Chinese-made EVs last year. Chinese automaker BYD's first-quarter BEV sales surged by 39pc to 416,000 units — beating rival Tesla's 332,000 units — aided by domestic subsidies and tariff-absorbing strategies such as hybrid exports and European production. And China's Geely's Holding Group delivered 483,372 EVs — up by 83pc on the year — making up 49pc of its overall sales, while China's state-owned SAIC delivered 433,000 units, up by 33pc on the year, using the UK assembly of its MG brand to bypass trade barriers. Sweden's Volvo has withdrawn its guidance for 2025 and 2026 after a 59pc drop in first-quarter operating profits, prompting an 18bn kronor ($1.8bn) cost-cutting programme. By Chris Welch Chinese carmakers' west Europe monthly new car sales pc Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China's Easpring builds lithium CAM facility in Finland