China would prefer Democratic presumptive nominee, former vice president Joe Biden to win the US election in November, while Russia is counting on President Donald Trump to gain a second term, a top US intelligence official said today.
The unusual assessment of other countries' preferences in the US election is based on the US intelligence agencies' estimate of targets of foreign interference in the presidential campaign.
"We assess that China prefers that President Trump — whom Beijing sees as unpredictable — does not win reelection," national counterintelligence and security center director William Evanina said. Beijing has expanded its influence efforts ahead of the election, especially after Trump's administration took away Hong Kong's preferential status in trade with the US, explicitly rejected China's offshore oil and gas claims in the South China Sea and closed China's Houston consulate, Evanina said.
By contrast "Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former vice president Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia 'establishment,'" Evanina said. "Some Kremlin-linked actors are also seeking to boost President Trump's candidacy on social media and Russian television."
The US intelligence agencies also accused Iran of seeking to undermine "US democratic institutions and President Trump." Tehran is taking those steps because of "a perception that President Trump's reelection would result in a continuation of US pressure on Iran in an effort to foment regime change," Evanina said.
The US intelligence agencies last month identified China, Russia and Iran as primary foreign actors interfering in the US election through social media and other means, but US lawmakers pressed for a public disclosure of perceived beneficiaries of such actions.
Assessments on foreign countries' efforts to interfere in the US election have become politicized in Washington, particularly after the conclusion of intelligence agencies that Moscow tried to influence the 2016 election in Trump's favor. The House of Representatives impeached, and the Senate acquitted, Trump over charges related to his alleged leveraging of US political and military support for Ukraine last year for electoral gain.
"The intelligence community's assessment that both China and Iran are trying to stop President Trump's re-election is concerning," the Trump campaign said. "The Trump administration has been tougher on Russia than any administration in history, imposing sanctions and expelling diplomats, in contrast with the Obama-Biden administration," it said.
The Biden campaign was not immediately available to respond.
That Tehran would prefer Biden to win the presidency seems like a straightforward conclusion, given his promise to resume the US' commitments under the Iran nuclear deal, including oil sanctions relief, so long as Iran resumes compliance with the deal.
Leaving aside the US claims of interference, it is harder to assess the potential gains and losses for Moscow and Beijing from either outcome of the election.
Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin have maintained cordial ties, but relations between the two countries are lurching from one low point to another. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany is the likely next target for US sanctions.
Biden last month accused Russia of trying to influence the US election and vowed to impose sanctions targeting issuances of Russian sovereign debt and Russian magnates in Putin's circle.
Both candidates have vowed to toughen the US policy on China — Trump over trade and Beijing's treatment of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Biden over its human rights practices. Both campaigns view China as a principal foreign challenger to the US.
Biden's promise to end "reckless trade wars" may appeal to Beijing. But his administration would probably review or scrap the recent US-China trade deal, which remains a rare bright spot in the two countries' bilateral relations, despite its spotty implementation.
