Looming Venezuela talks whet investor appetite

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
24/06/21

Venezuela is returning to the geopolitical stage after months out of the limelight.

President Nicolas Maduro's government and his political opponents are preparing to restart negotiations to establish credible conditions for state and local elections on 21 November, cooperation to address the Covid-19 pandemic and broader power-sharing arrangements. If the talks succeed, the US would gradually lift sanctions, unshackling the Opec country's national oil industry and galvanizing a new class of private investment after more than two decades of catastrophic state control over the economy.

In anticipation of the expected kick-off of the Norwegian-brokered talks next month, both sides are conferring with their international patrons. An opposition delegation led by Gerardo Blyde — a veteran of a previous failed dialogue — is in Washington this week before heading to Brussels. Venezuela's foreign minister Jorge Arreaza met with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.

The negotiations will test an incremental strategy espoused by a moderate opposition wing led by former Miranda state governor and ex-presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who is eclipsing hardliners embodied by prominent exile Leopoldo Lopez and his protege in Venezuela, Juan Guaido. The moderates advocate participating in elections however flawed and resolving day-to-day problems on the ground, even if that means working with Maduro. The Lopez-led camp has long pursued an all-or-nothing strategy manifested by an electoral boycott.

In January 2019, Guaido, then-head of Venezuela's National Assembly, was anointed president of an ersatz interim government actively supported by former US president Donald Trump's administration. Western recognition and popular support for Guaido crumbled after he failed to fulfill his vow to oust the "usurper". Dispirited technocrats who initially joined him have gone back to their day jobs or retirement. In Washington, President Joe Biden's administration is now hoping the upcoming talks will lead to an off-ramp for the awkward recognition of Guaido and the sanctions inherited from Trump.

In parallel, some oil companies, yield-hungry private equity firms and jilted bondholders are hoping for an on-ramp. Departing from the Bolivarian socialism ushered in by late president Hugo Chavez in 1999, Maduro is promoting "anti-blockade" legislation that would allow the private sector to hold a majority stake in upstream oil contracts, of which around two dozen have already been signed with unnamed local and foreign companies. Execution of the contracts rests on reforming the country's hydrocarbons law to cement the elimination of Venezuelan state-owned PdV's mandate of control, a proposition rejected by ideological purists in Maduro's socialist party (PSUV).

Incumbent Western oil companies such as Chevron, which is on stand-by in Venezuela under a US sanctions waiver, hope the political talks and legislative reform converge into an opportunity to revive Orinoco heavy oil belt operations and tap long-neglected natural gas reserves. EU firms Repsol and Eni are eyeing export avenues for the gas they are already producing offshore. Peers with no Venezuela presence are unlikely to rush in because of political risk and the carbon intensity of Orinoco operations.

Quick wins

Beyond the IOCs, the potential reopening is attracting a speculative class of investors generally keener on short-term profits than long-term gains, including fledgling private equity groups with Venezuelan capital and holders of some $60bn in defaulted Venezuelan sovereign and PdV bonds.

Current bond prices of as little as $0.03 on the dollar are expected to inch up in anticipation of a political deal and an easing of US restrictions on Venezuelan bond trading. Some bondholders want to exchange their debt for equity in privatized state-owned entities or reserves of oil and minerals, a mechanism quietly discussed with Maduro's top financial adviser, Ecuador's former finance minister Patricio Rivera.

One privileged group are PdV 2020 bondholders that have a pledge of shares in PdV's US refining subsidiary Citgo, nominally controlled by Guaido. A US government suspension of a license for the bondholders to execute their claim is up for renewal next month. Citgo is already subject to a conditional sale process on behalf of other creditors, namely New York hedge fund Tenor Capital Management and ConocoPhillips.

Outside the US, the question of who controls Venezuelan gold reserves held in the Bank of England will be heard by the UK Supreme Court next month, another case Guaido seems likely to lose given London's ongoing diplomatic ties to Maduro.

A modest win for Guaido could come from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac), which is close to unfreezing some $27mn in Venezuelan central bank funds on his behalf to establish a cold chain for Covid-19 vaccines in coordination with Unicef.

By Patricia Garip

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02/04/25

Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

Sydney, 2 April (Argus) — Senior figures in Australia's upstream gas sector have hit out at plans for intervention in the heavily regulated industry, as debate continues on how to best address domestic supply shortfalls later this decade. The federal Coalition in March announced National Gas Plan including a 50-100 PJ/yr (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) domestic reservation system aimed at forcing the three LNG exporters based in Queensland's Gladstone to direct more supply to the eastern states' market. But oversupplying the market to drive down prices would destroy the viability of smaller gas projects, Australian independent Beach Energy's chief executive Brett Woods said at a conference in Sydney on 1 April. The domestic-focused firm, which will export some LNG volumes via its Waitsia project in 2025, warns that such a move by the Peter Dutton-led opposition would reduce export incomes while harming Australia's international reputation. The volumes impacted by the policy could reach around 900,000-1.8mn t/yr. Expropriation of developed reserves is equivalent to breaking contracts with LNG buyers and with the foreign and local investors that the country needs for ongoing economic security, Woods said on 1 April. Domestic gas reservation systems put in place by the state governments of Western Australia (WA) and Queensland, designed to keep local markets well supplied, were "clearly supportable", Woods said, but only future supply should be subject to the regulations. LNG terminals, which represent about 70pc of eastern Australia's total gas consumption and shipped 24mn t in 2024 , should not be blamed for the failure of governments to expedite new supply and plan for Australia's gas future, head of Shell Australia Cecile Wake said in response to the Coalition's proposal. Shell's QGC business supplied 15pc of its volumes to the local grid, with the remainder shipped from its 8.5mn t/yr Queensland Curtis LNG project, Wake added. Canberra has moved to promote gas use as a transition fuel to firm renewable energy in line with its 2030 emissions reduction targets, but progress has been slow as reforming laws appear to be hampering development . The state governments, particularly in gas-poor Victoria and New South Wales (NSW), must recognise the need for locally-produced supply and streamline the approvals processes, especially environmental permits, executives said. But despite pleas for an end to years of interventionist policy — including the governing Labor party's measures to cap the price of domestic gas at A$12/GJ , Australia's fractured political environment and rising cost of living has sparked largely populist responses from its leaders. A so-called "hung" parliament is likely to result from the 3 May poll , with a variety of mainly left-leaning independents representing an anti-fossil fuel agenda expected to control the balance of power in Australia's parliament. LNG debate sharpens Debate on the causes of southern Australia's gas deficit has persisted, and the ironic outcome of underinvestment in gas supply could be LNG re-imports from Gladstone to NSW, Victoria and South Australia, making fracked coal-bed methane — liquefied in Queensland and regasified — a likely higher-emissions alternative to pipeline supply. Several developers are readying for this possibility , which is considered inevitable without action to increase supply in Victoria or NSW, increase winter storages or raise north-south pipeline capacity. Australian pipeline operator APA appears to have the most to lose out of the active firms in the gas sector. APA chief executive Adam Watson this week criticised plans for imports, because relying on LNG will set the price of domestic gas at a detrimental level, raise emissions and decrease reliability of supply, Watson said. The firm is planning to increase its eastern pipeline capacity by 25pc to bring new supplies from the Bass, Surat and Beetaloo basins to market. But investment certainty is needed or Australia will risk needing to subsidise coal-fired power for longer if sufficient gas is unavailable to back up wind and solar generators with peaking power, Watson said. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s Bauna oilfield restarts after maintenance

02/04/25

Brazil’s Bauna oilfield restarts after maintenance

Sydney, 2 April (Argus) — Brazil-focused Australian oil and gas company Karoon Energy has brought its Bauna oilfield in the offshore Santos basin back on line after the completion of intervention works at its SPS-88 well in February. Production resumed on 27 March after the project was shut down for maintenance on 7 March, Karoon said. The field's output has since reached about 26,500 b/d, above pre-shutdown levels because of the return of SPS-88 well production on 28 March. The well is pumping 2,000 b/d of oil on a restricted choke and is gradually being opened further, with rates in line with expectations. The intervention was originally planned for October-December 2024 after being taken off line in November 2023 because of a mechanical blockage in the gas lift valve. Karoon's plans to acquire the Cidade de Itajai floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit at its Bauna oilfield have progressed, with the transaction on track to close as forecast in April. Selection of a new operations and maintenance contractor for the FPSO will be announced in mid-2025, with an updated cost guidance to be provided once terms are agreed. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

01/04/25

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

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Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

01/04/25

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

Washington, 1 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump plans to announce a sweeping batch of tariffs on Wednesday afternoon that will take effect "immediately", the White House said today. Trump will unveil his much anticipated tariff decision Wednesday at 4pm ET during a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden. While the administration has announced the effective date, there is little clarity on what goods will face tariffs at what rates and against which countries, leaving the government agencies that will be tasked with enforcing new tariffs largely in the dark. "The president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower," the White House said today, brushing off criticism from economists, industry groups and investors. Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in March as businesses braced for Trump's tariff threats. Trump has previewed or announced multiple tariff actions since taking office. The barriers in place now include a 20pc tariff on all imports from China, in effect since 4 March, and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum, in effect since 12 March. A 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, is scheduled to go into effect on 3 April, the White House confirmed today. Trump and his advisers have previewed two possible courses of action for 2 April. Trump has suggested that all major US trading partners are likely to see a broad increase in tariffs in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit and to raise more revenue for the US federal budget. But Trump separately has talked about the need for "reciprocal tariffs", contending that most foreign countries typically charge higher rates of tariffs on US exports than the US applies to imports from those countries. In that scenario, high tariffs become a negotiating tool to bring down alleged foreign barriers to US exports. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday night that the second course is the one Trump is more likely to take. Trump will announce "reciprocal tariffs" and "everyone will have the opportunity to lower their tariffs, lower their non-tariff barriers, stop the currency manipulation" and "make the global trading system fair for American workers again", Bessent said. But the White House insisted today that the new tariffs will not be a negotiating tool. Trump is "always up for a good negotiation, but he is very much focused on fixing the wrongs of the past and showing that American workers have a fair shake", the White House said. Trump's words and actions already have drawn retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, and the EU is preparing to implement its first batch of counter-tariffs in April. Trump, for now, has deferred his tariff plans for imported Canadian and Mexican oil and other energy commodities. But the US oil and gas sector, which depends on pipelines and foreign-flagged vessels to transport its crude, natural gas, refined products and LNG, will feel the effects of tariffs on imported steel and proposed fees on Chinese-made and owned vessels calling at US ports. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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