Total La Mede crude refining to cease: Update 3

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Oil products
16/04/15

Adds strike details at La Mede in fourth paragraph

Total will cease crude refining at its loss-making 160,000 b/d La Mede refinery and convert it into a 500,000 t/yr biofuels facility, the company confirmed today in its French refinery strategy plan.

La Mede will cease crude refinery operations by the end of 2016. But the 222,000 b/d Donges refinery will remain a crude refinery, and Total today pledged investment of €400mn ($416mn) to "capture profitable new markets with low-sulphur fuels that meet the evolutions of EU specifications". It will construct a 2.6mn t/yr VGO desulphurisation facility and develop hydrogen production. Donges has insufficient desulphurisation capacity at present, so a proportion of its fuels are exported outside of the EU because they do not meet specifications.

Total also said the 105,000 b/d Feyzin, 240,000 b/d Gonfreville and 93,000 b/d Grandpuits refineries "demonstrated their ability to withstand the deteriorating economic environment in 2013 and 2014 and generate ongoing income streams".

The company will invest €200mn in converting La Mede and cut 178 jobs. La Mede workers have been on strike since 04:00 this morning, and have successfully stopped all products from leaving the plant. Strikes are likely to continue tomorrow, Total said.

The move to convert La Mede into France's first biorefinery was widely-expected, despite excess biofuel capacity in Europe. The biorefinery will produce biodiesel from used oils as well as from renewable feedstock. French union CFDT said today that the biorefinery would also produce 55,000 t/yr of biopropane and bionaphtha.

La Mede will join the company's Dunkirk facility — once a 156,000 b/d refinery — which is earmarked to become a 200,000 t/yr second-generation biofuels joint venture, BioTfuel.

Total expects to complete the Dunkirk refinery conversion next year. The company aims to begin producing biofuels from organic waste from 2017, although commercial-scale production is unlikely before 2020. BioTfuel's start-up date has slipped a number of times from an original date of 2012, with costs rising to €180mn ($190.5mn) from €112mn.

Total promised the French government in the wake of its 2010 decision to close the Dunkirk refinery that it would not shut any more plants in France until 2015.

In Europe, Total's focus since the restructuring has been on adapting its refining and chemicals production capacity to changes in demand.

Refineries in Europe have long been struggling because of sluggish demand, global overcapacity and competition from overseas refineries. Total has a long-standing target to reduce its refining and chemicals capacity in the region by 20pc in 2012-17. With the closure of La Mede, as well as its plans to halve the capacity of its 222,000 b/d Lindsey refinery in the UK, sell its 17pc stake in the 208,000 b/d Schwedt refinery in Germany, and shut the steam cracker at the Carling chemicals plant in France, this target has largely been reached.

But further refinery closures in Europe seem inevitable even after Total's planned closures. In its 2014 World Oil Outlook published in November, Opec said it estimated a further 2.4mn b/d of European refining capacity would close by 2019. And the IEA expects economic expansion, rather than lower energy prices, to drive demand growth for refined products, making further consolidation likely in Europe as growth stalls on the continent and imports rise.

Total currently has five operational refineries in France; the Feyzin, La Mede, Donges, Gonfreville and Grandpuits refineries.

The company's total French refining capacity is 820,000 b/d. France makes up around 40pc of the firm's global refining capacity of 2.2mn b/d.

Refinery throughput in France was 639,000 b/d last year, down by 1pc compared with 2013. The utilisation rate in France was 77pc last year, 78pc in 2013 and 82pc in 2012. France made up 36pc of the firm's total refinery throughput last year, compared with 38pc in 2013.

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28/11/24

Opec+ meeting delayed to 5 December

Dubai, 28 November (Argus) — A meeting of Opec+ ministers scheduled for 1 December has been postponed to 5 December. Opec said the delay is because of a conflicting travel schedule for energy ministers of Mideast Gulf countries, as the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) leaders summit in Kuwait overlaps with the Opec+ meeting. The Opec+ meeting, which was to be held online, will coincide with a decision to be taken by eight member countries on whether to press ahead with a plan to begin the phased return of 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts to the market from January. This was to begin in October, but concerns about the strength of oil demand and price weakness prompted the group to postpone to December and then to January. The UAE will start increasing its output from January regardless, as a 300,000 b/d increase to its official production quota kicks in over the course of 2025. Any increase to Opec+ supply would be tempered by additional cuts that some of the eight will be making in the coming months to compensate for past overproduction. Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia are the group's leading overproducers. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on 27 November talked with Kazakhstan's energy minister Almasadam Satkaliyev and Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, Moscow's point man on Opec+ matters. A day earlier, Prince Abdulaziz met in Baghdad with Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Novak. The statements from both meetings emphasised "full adherence to the [current policy] agreement, including the voluntary production cuts agreed upon by the eight participating countries, as well as compensating for any excess production." The 5 December meeting will be a third consecutive Opec+ ordinary ministerial meeting to be held virtually rather than in Vienna. The last time Opec+ held its ministerial meeting in-person was in June 2023. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US refiners cannot readily replace Canadian oil: AFPM

27/11/24

US refiners cannot readily replace Canadian oil: AFPM

Calgary, 27 November (Argus) — US refiners that process Canadian crude would not easily find alternative supplies if president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his tariff plans, potentially threatening the viability of some fuel producers, a US refining industry group warned today. Trump on Monday said he would impose a 25pc tariff on imports of all goods from Canada and Mexico, claiming those two countries need to tighten borders they share with the US. Such tariffs would be problematic for US refiners that have come to rely on a steady diet of Canadian crude, much of which comes from the western, oil-rich province of Alberta. "There is no easy, fit-for-purpose replacement for this crude oil," the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), which advocates for many US refiners, said on Wednesday. Canadian oil is the number one refinery feedstock in the US midcontinent, accounting for 65pc of all crude runs in the region, according to AFPM. Refiners in the region have limited connectivity to US crude and refined products pipelines, so tariffs could sharply increase operating costs and even threaten their viability, the association said. Many refineries were built prior to the US shale boom and are suited for heavier, high-sulfur crudes that typically come from foreign sources. Canada exported about $428bn in goods and services to the US in 2022, while the US exported $481bn to Canada, according to US data. Petroleum makes up a substantial part of Canada's exports, with roughly 4mn b/d of Canada's 5mn b/d of production shipped to the US. Of this, about 3mn b/d is destined for the US midcontinent region. "The crude oil pipeline logistics have changed over the decades such that the loss of Canadian oil into these regions can only be replaced with domestic production," Lipow Oil Associates president and industry analyst Andrew Lipow told Argus Wednesday. "Unfortunately, there is very little pipeline capacity to deliver crude oil produced in Texas and New Mexico to refineries in Montana, Minnesota, and Chicagoland." Lipow suggested three scenarios, or some combination thereof, may unfold: Canadian crude would need to be further discounted to overcome the tariff; US refiners would pay more for crude, including for domestic WTI that would rise to import parity; or Canadian crude would be exempted from tariffs and there would be no change. "The extent of the price impact depends on one's locations, but certainly seems to me that the consumer will be paying more for energy," Lipow said. Tariffs on crude and refined products "will not help our industry compete, nor will they support US energy dominance and affordability for consumers", AFPM said. The American Petroleum Institute (API), another industry group, agreed. "Maintaining the free flow of energy products across our borders is critical for North American energy security and US consumers," an API spokesperson said. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: AtJ learnings, mandate critical for Australian SAF

27/11/24

Q&A: AtJ learnings, mandate critical for Australian SAF

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australian bioenergy developer Jet Zero has received strong government backing for its proposed Project Ulysses, an alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project in the northern Queensland state city of Townsville. Argus spoke to chief executive Ed Mason on the sidelines of the Townsville Summit on 27 November about the project's initial engineering. Edited highlights follow: Regarding the proposed 102mn l/yr refinery here in Townsville, what are some of the initial engineering study findings? So with front-end engineering and design (FEED), what we're doing is value engineering, which you typically do at the end of FEED, we're doing it at the front because we've seen so many opportunities to improve on the reference project design in Georgia, US — they're just basically lessons learned from what LanzaJet have seen, as well as what we've identified as opportunities to eliminate, reduce, simplify costs. We've got hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), that's the kind of space rocket that can get you to the moon, we've now got alcohol-to-jet commercialised, which is like the space shuttle — slightly better, which can do more. But we really need to see a SpaceX type of system where you can go up and down and make it more efficient, so it's making those technologies far more capital efficient and better, so that's what we're focused on. Where are negotiations at with refiners Wilmar and Manildra, the two main producers of ethanol in Australia? We basically have constructive discussions in particular with Wilmar, they have surplus capacity, they're vocal supporters of development of the ethanol market, as you know, for many years. We've got ample supply (183mn l/yr) and confidence about what we need for SAF and importantly, assisting that supplier getting that feedstock RSB and Corsia certified. Looking at the regulatory situation at the moment, a low-carbon fuel standard. How critical is that to building a project like yours to final investment? We made a submission on the low-carbon liquid fuel paper . We're advocating both supply and demand measures and were fairly aligned with the wider industry submission. We believe a modest mandate, 1-2pc, supports and is ahead of what the project pipeline is, so you're not putting a mandate that can't be achieved by the projects at our stage but that sends a strong signal, like other countries have already sent. Secondly, supply measures around financing like other types of mechanisms you've seen with Hydrogen Headstart , just to get the industry going. How tight is the window for Australia to catch up with the rest of the world? It's very tight. I think we've got to move in the next two years — there is a wall of demand from 2030 and these projects take five years to develop from start to finish. If we don't move in this in the next few years, we'll end up seeing the feedstock develop that market, but not the production of SAF and we'll lose out on those jobs. A standard size plant has been proposed in Townsville, how much room do you have to grow that capacity in Townsville? We'd very much like to be bigger if the market was there for ethanol. We've sized it at the minimum size that we feel can deliver commercial volumes of SAF at a price that's in line with benchmark, but the bigger you go, the bigger economies of scale you get. These are modules, we can increase and add another train to Townsville quite easily, so a huge opportunity to grow that. The actual plant construction timeframe, what does that look like? The longest lead item is 14 months, but I'd assume two years. So if we are at final investment decision in the second half of next year, we could conceivably see this project start producing SAF by the second half of 2027. Is sugarcane going to be sufficient for growing AtJ SAF, or will we need other feedstock in the future? The sugarcane industry has theoretically got the biggest contributing opportunity, particularly short to medium term with this industry. But you've got agave, you've got other types of crops that can produce like sorghum and other types of sources of ethanol that can be used, and they are a potentially medium-to-long-term supply opportunity. [Farming lobby] Canegrowers ran a fairly extensive campaign around the potential of biofuels in the last Queensland state election, and we've seen other bodies in the sugar industry run similar campaigns so the industry, from grower to miller, is supportive of developing the industry. We've only seen sugar mills close in north Queensland over the last decade, I think ultimately the rest of the world's sugar industry has already moved on [biofuels]. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

26/11/24

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

London, 26 November (Argus) — Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor representatives today suggested that Opec+ members would probably continue to delay their plan to start increasing crude production. The comments from three of the world's biggest trading firms come just days before the Opec+ alliance is set to hold a ministerial meeting on 1 December to decide its output policy for next year. At the top of the agenda is whether eight members will begin returning 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts over a 12-month period starting in January — three months later than originally planned. "I think there's no room for them to increase," Gunvor chief executive Torbjorn Tornqvist said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today. "So far they've been very disciplined and they've made the right call not to add any oil," he said. Most forecasters predict weak oil demand next year, with the market flipping into a surplus. "I suspect that the barrels coming back will again be deferred," Trafigura's global head of oil Ben Luckock said. "Exactly how long? Probably not that far, but they have the choice to be able to continue to [delay] and they probably don't enjoy the price right now." The front-month Ice Brent crude futures is currently trading around $73/bl, around $20/bl below where prices were before Opec+ announced its initial output cut in October 2022. The alliance has reduced output by about 4mn b/d since then, Argus estimates. "The likelihood is that Opec will try to manage the market through the next two to three months to wait to see how some of these geopolitical aspects solve themselves," Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said. All three executives pointed to geopolitical uncertainties such as the incoming US administration's Iran sanctions policy, the trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war and the conflict in the Middle East as potential market movers in 2025. Luckock also stressed the importance of compliance for the Opec+ alliance. "I think compliance is a huge deal, because a cheating Opec doesn't yield higher prices." Members including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have tended to exceed their production targets this year, tarnishing the credibility of the alliance. But a long-running Saudi-led effort to get these countries to comply and compensate appears to be bearing fruit. The three executives also gave their traditional forecasts for what the oil price would be in 12 months. Tornqvist said he expected prices to be similar to today's levels at $70/bl, which he described as "fair" given the world's large spare production capacity and declining production costs. Luckock said it was a "mug's game" forecasting 12-months out, particularly given the range of geopolitical uncertainties on the horizon. When pressed for a number he settled on $75/bl, but said this was not particularly useful to anyone. Hardy stuck with his previous forecast of $70-80/bl. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump tariffs will divert TMX crude from USWC

26/11/24

Trump tariffs will divert TMX crude from USWC

Houston, 26 November (Argus) — President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada could divert most of the crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline away from US west coast refiners to Asia-Pacific. Flows from Canada's newest pipeline might shift after Trump, via social media late on Monday, announced plans to slap a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. TMX, which expanded capacity on the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d and gave Asia-Pacific buyers access to heavy sour crude produced in Alberta's oil sands, would have to direct all its flows to Asia if US west coast demand weakens. Tariffs on crude imports from Canada would force US west coast refiners to turn elsewhere. Refiners in the region have increased purchases of Canadian grades since the May commencement of the pipeline. Cheaper prices and closer proximity to Vancouver, where TMX crude loads, allowed the heavy sour crudes to find favor along the US west coast. But the proposed tariffs would strengthen TMX prices, no longer making it the cheapest heavy sour option. About 313,000 b/d of mostly heavy sour Canadian crude has loaded at Vancouver's Westridge terminal in the six months since the pipeline made its debut, according to analytics firm Vortexa. US west coast refiners received around 145,000 b/d since the pipeline came on line in May, up from less than 40,000 b/d a year earlier. Most TMX crude destined for the US west coast has gone to California refiners, with Marathon, Chevron and Phillips 66 emerging as consistent buyers. Around 34mn bl of TMX crude has loaded for Asia-Pacific, or about 161,000 b/d. China, the largest buyer in Asia-Pacific, has purchased about 83pc of those barrels, Vortexa data shows. Also, Latin American barrels could see a resurgence after being displaced by TMX in the region. Latin American medium and heavy sours, like Napo and Oriente, could see a resurgence in demand as well, after TMX displaced those grades. In the first six months after TMX, imports of Napo and Oriente fell by 14pc. Brazilian and Guyanese crudes could also see higher demand in the region, according to market participants. But Mexican crude flows could also be limited by Trump's tariffs. Imports from Mexico have been declining since TMX's May commencement, dropping 65pc in the pipeline's first six months of service. But refiners still import the grades, taking roughly 3.5mn bl, or 16,7000 b/d since the pipeline began operating. By Rachel McGuire Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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