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Parallel govt emerging in Venezuela: Update 2

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 11/01/19

Adds Brazil's recognition of assembly authority.

A parallel opposition government is emerging in the wake of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro´s disputed re-inauguration yesterday in Caracas.

Juan Guaidó, who was elected president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly on 5 January, declared at a public rally today that he is assuming the executive powers of the presidency based on three articles of Venezuela´s 1999 constitution.

Brazil appears to have become the first nation to recognize the assembly's executive authority. After Maduro refused to step down, "Brazil reiterates its full support for the National Assembly, a democratically elected constitutional institution, at present responsible for the executive power in Venezuela, according to the country's legitimate Supreme Court," Brazil's foreign ministry said in a statement this afternoon.

Today´s development compounds pressure on western oil companies that have oil and gas assets and operations in Venezuela. The Opec country´s oil production has plummeted over the past year, but the state-owned industry is seen as a central component of a future reconstruction campaign.

Venezuela's many jilted creditors are hoping that a transitional government will implement a comprehensive debt restructuring. In a statement issued today, New York-based bonderholders´committee said it considers the assembly to be "the only legitimately elected body in Venezuela and wishes to underscore its position that, consistent with OFAC sanctions, it will not negotiate with the current regime," adding that it plans to keep channels of communication open with "all non-sanctioned stakeholders" in anticipation of a restructuring and economic reform program "under a domestically and internationally legitimate government."

Maduro´s re-inauguration to a second six-year term was condemned as illegitimate by over 50 countries including the US, Canada, EU, the Lima Group and the Organization of American States (OAS). The ceremony officiated by the government-controlled Supreme Court, rather than the National Assembly as instructed by the constitution, triggered more targeted international sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, on top of US financial sanctions imposed in August 2017.

"I invoke Articles 233, 333 and 350 of the constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to call immediate free elections, and for the unity of the people, armed forces and international community to end the usurpation" of Maduro, Guaidó declared at the rally of hundreds of Venezuelans held outside the UN office in Caracas today.

Article 233 says the head of the assembly will assume the presidency until new elections are held whenever the sitting president is incapacitated, abandons the presidency or the popular will revokes his mandate.

The assembly already has declared Maduro's second government to be illegitimate, but likely will issue more resolutions to that effect before a scheduled 23 January march aimed at forcing Maduro out of office. The evocative date recalls the 1958 ouster of Venezuela´s former dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez.

Article 333 says the constitution is valid and prevails even when it is ignored or revoked unconstitutionally.

A legislative aide to Guaidó said his declared assumption of executive powers is intended to block any attempt by the government-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) and Supreme Court to replace the 1999 constitution with a new charter and dissolve the assembly before its constitutional term ends in 2021.

Article 350 says the people of Venezuela will disavow and reject any government contrary to Venezuela's democratic values and principles.

The opposition is hoping the march will compel Maduro to peacefully resign and transfer power to the assembly until new elections are held in a 30-day period.

Guaidó emerged from relative obscurity in recent weeks, the latest in a long line of opposition figures, many of whom are behind bars or in exile. Guaidó is younger and is seen as less encumbered politically than his predecessors.

The military´s stance will be critical to determining the fate of this latest effort to dislodge Maduro. Guaidó called on the armed forces to support the people's march and urged Venezuelans to take the streets to reclaim their democracy.

Venezuela´s top military brass holds senior positions in the Maduro government and has been loyal to him since he came to power in 2013, following the death of former president Hugo Chavez. But rank and file troops suffer the same deprivations of food, medicine and basic services as ordinary Venezuelans do.

Guaidó's announcement could spark another violent government crackdown on the long-divided opposition.

There was no immediate response from the presidential palace to Guaidó's announcement.

Constituent assembly president Diosdado Cabello, part of Maduro´s inner circle, has threatened physical harm against Maduro's opponents, warning last week that anyone who tries to force Maduro from power will be treated as "an enemy invader and traitor."

A senior member of the Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) party tells Argus that Guaidó is aware of the "life-threatening" risks of his initiative, but said it was his "only option".

"Keeping silent and not invoking the constitution's authority to strip Maduro of his executive powers would have been a surrender to the dictatorial status quo and would have buried any chance of restoring democracy for years to come."


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26/11/24

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

London, 26 November (Argus) — Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor representatives today suggested that Opec+ members would probably continue to delay their plan to start increasing crude production. The comments from three of the world's biggest trading firms come just days before the Opec+ alliance is set to hold a ministerial meeting on 1 December to decide its output policy for next year. At the top of the agenda is whether eight members will begin returning 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts over a 12-month period starting in January — three months later than originally planned. "I think there's no room for them to increase," Gunvor chief executive Torbjorn Tornqvist said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today. "So far they've been very disciplined and they've made the right call not to add any oil," he said. Most forecasters predict weak oil demand next year, with the market flipping into a surplus. "I suspect that the barrels coming back will again be deferred," Trafigura's global head of oil Ben Luckock said. "Exactly how long? Probably not that far, but they have the choice to be able to continue to [delay] and they probably don't enjoy the price right now." The front-month Ice Brent crude futures is currently trading around $73/bl, around $20/bl below where prices were before Opec+ announced its initial output cut in October 2022. The alliance has reduced output by about 4mn b/d since then, Argus estimates. "The likelihood is that Opec will try to manage the market through the next two to three months to wait to see how some of these geopolitical aspects solve themselves," Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said. All three executives pointed to geopolitical uncertainties such as the incoming US administration's Iran sanctions policy, the trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war and the conflict in the Middle East as potential market movers in 2025. Luckock also stressed the importance of compliance for the Opec+ alliance. "I think compliance is a huge deal, because a cheating Opec doesn't yield higher prices." Members including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have tended to exceed their production targets this year, tarnishing the credibility of the alliance. But a long-running Saudi-led effort to get these countries to comply and compensate appears to be bearing fruit. The three executives also gave their traditional forecasts for what the oil price would be in 12 months. Tornqvist said he expected prices to be similar to today's levels at $70/bl, which he described as "fair" given the world's large spare production capacity and declining production costs. Luckock said it was a "mug's game" forecasting 12-months out, particularly given the range of geopolitical uncertainties on the horizon. When pressed for a number he settled on $75/bl, but said this was not particularly useful to anyone. Hardy stuck with his previous forecast of $70-80/bl. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norden agrees marine biodiesel deal with Meta


26/11/24
26/11/24

Norden agrees marine biodiesel deal with Meta

London, 26 November (Argus) — Danish shipping company Norden has agreed with tech giant Meta to utilise marine biodiesel blends on operated vessels. The deal is based on Norden's book-and-claim, a system that can be used to deliver proof of sustainability (PoS) documentation to customers to offset the latter's scope 3 emissions and fulfil their voluntary demand. The PoS can be obtained on a mass-balance system, allowing shipowners flexibility with regards to the port at which a blend can be bunkered. Norden did not specify which marine biodiesel blends it will use as part of this agreement, but said the biofuel will be ISCC-certified and will have an 80-90pc greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential. The agreement follows recent drops in Argus assessments for marine biodiesel blends comprising Advanced Fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 in the ARA trading and refining hub. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria restarts Port Harcourt refinery: Update


26/11/24
26/11/24

Nigeria restarts Port Harcourt refinery: Update

Recasts and adds details throughout London, 26 November (Argus) — Nigeria's state-owned NNPC said today it has restarted its 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery after three and a half years offline. Product loadings began today after the plant's smaller, 60,000 b/d capacity crude distillation unit (CDU) came into operation. This gradual restart had been planned by Italian engineering firm Maire Tecnimont, which has been rehabilitating the plant under a $1.5bn contract, although a number of deadlines announced by NNPC have been missed. Refined products from Port Harcourt will add to the gasoline that has been supplied since September from the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Product imports are likely to fall, an industry source said. Nigerian downstream regulator NMDPRA's head Farouk Ahmed said products from Port Harcourt will be made available nationwide and would stoke price competition. Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported an average national gasoline price of 1,185/litre (70¢/l) for October, a rise of 88pc on the year and 15pc from September. The price of diesel, which has been deregulated since 2003, was an average N1,441/l in October, NBS said, up by 43pc on the year and by 2pc on the month. The Dangote Group dropped its ex-gantry gasoline prices on Sunday, 24 November, to N970/l from N990/l. Nigerian importers already appear under pressure to compete with Dangote on product pricing, which the Port Harcourt start-up may exacerbate. A local trader said he has found gasoline trading economics most workable when lifting from Dangote ex-single point mooring (SPM) and delivering to coastal ports such as Port Harcourt and Warri in Nigeria's southeast, where truck deliveries from Dangote would prove uneconomic. Nigeria's presidency and NMDPRA's Ahmed urged NNPC to now bring back online its 125,000 b/d Warri and 110,000 b/d Kaduna refineries, which have been closed since 2019. NNPC has opened a combined tender for operating and maintaining these. The outcome of a similar tender for Port Harcourt is unclear. Nigeria would become a net products exporter when Warri and Kaduna come online, NMDPRA's Ahmed said today. A source at the regulator said exports might become vital to Nigerian refiners. "The patronage for petroleum products is low and Nigeria is oversupplied," the source said, attributing the latest Dangote price cut to competition with imports and weak demand. The prospect of Port Harcourt running at its nameplate capacity is in doubt, sources said. It would at best reach 40-50pc of capacity, the industry source said, which would focus on mainly local gasoline deliveries. Port Harcourt was shut in 2020 after several years of low capacity utilisation. NNPC previously said it expects the initial 60,000 b/d phase to produce 12,000 b/d of gasoline, 13,000 b/d of diesel, 8,600 b/d of kerosine, 19,000 b/d of fuel oil and 850 b/d of LPG in the first year of resumed operations. By Adebiyi Olusolape and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bimco develops FuelEU clause for charter parties


26/11/24
26/11/24

Bimco develops FuelEU clause for charter parties

Sao Paulo, 26 November (Argus) — Danish shipping association Bimco has developed a contractual clause to support time charter parties ahead of FuelEU Maritime regulations that come into force at the beginning of 2025. The clause designates the shipowner to be the party responsible for FuelEU Maritime. Bimco said the clause is intended to be the standard applicable for most scenarios and commercial relationships. Among the recommendations, the clause states it is mandatory for a shipowner to present the vessel's compliance balance for the previous two years and in the current year. The FuelEU maritime regulation will start in 2025 and will require that ships traveling in, out of, and within EU territorial waters gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis. It will start with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030, and will be 80pc by 2050, all compared with 2020 levels. The regulation applies to all commercial ships above 5,000 gross tonnes (GT) carrying passengers or cargo. "The clause we have adopted today is the result of a collaborative process between owners, charterers, Protection and Indemnity (P&I), legal experts, and other stakeholders," said Bimco's documentary committee chairman Nicholas Fell. Bimco has also already adopted a clause for emission trading allowances under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) for ship management agreements, voyage charter parties, and contracts of affreightment. By Gabriel Tassi Lara and Natália Coelho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Star Bulk expects smooth 2025 FuelEU compliance


25/11/24
25/11/24

Star Bulk expects smooth 2025 FuelEU compliance

New York, 25 November (Argus) — Greek ship owner Star Bulk said it expects to meet the 2025 FuelEU regulation without issue. Starting on 1 January 2025, the FuelEU regulation will require that vessel fleets travelling in EU territorial waters cap their lifecycle greenhouse gases (GHG) at 89.34 grams of CO2-equivalent per megajoule through 2029. The company plans to meet this regulation by burning B30 biofuel blends on some of its vessels. This will GHG credits for its remaining vessels that trade in and out of EU territorial waters. Star Bulk does not expect to have difficulty sourcing the B30, but warned that sourcing it could become a challenge from 2027 onward. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) should update its GHG emissions regulation for international shipping to include lifecycle emissions from the current emissions from combustion around mid-2027. The organization will require that vessels globally reduce their lifecycle GHG by at least 20pc by 2030 and by at least 70pc by 2040, compared with a 2008 baseline, and reach net-zero by 2050. This will require additional quantities of biofuel. Unlike the FuelEU regulation which applies to vessel fleets or pools travelling in EU waters, the IMO regulation will apply to individual vessels travelling in international waters. Star Bulk burned 832,371 of marine fuel in 2023, down 4pc compared with 2022. Of this quantity, 708,406t was high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), 36,598t very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and 87,367t marine gasoil. About 95pc of Star Bulk's vessel fleet is outfitted with marine exhaust scrubbers. The scrubbers allow its vessels to burn HSFO in international waters. Vessels that do not have scrubbers are required by the IMO to burn marine fuel with up to 0.5pc sulphur content maximum, such as VLSFO in international waters. Star Bulk's vessels emitted 2.6mn t of CO2 in 2023, down 4pc from 2022. The company is aiming to reduce its fleet's carbon intensity ratio by 12pc by 2026, from 2019 baseline year, consistent with the IMO's carbon intensity indicator targets. In 2023, Star Bulk achieved 4.32pc reduction relative to 2019. The reduction was largely due to improved vessel performance monitoring, hull cleaning, and optimization of weather and routing, the company said. As of the end of September, Star Bulk owned 155 vessels, chartered 10 vessels and had five newbuild vessels on order to be delivered in 2025 and 2026. In April, the company finalized its merger with Eagle Bulk Shipping . By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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