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Parallel govt emerging in Venezuela: Update 2

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 19/01/11

Adds Brazil's recognition of assembly authority.

A parallel opposition government is emerging in the wake of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro´s disputed re-inauguration yesterday in Caracas.

Juan Guaidó, who was elected president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly on 5 January, declared at a public rally today that he is assuming the executive powers of the presidency based on three articles of Venezuela´s 1999 constitution.

Brazil appears to have become the first nation to recognize the assembly's executive authority. After Maduro refused to step down, "Brazil reiterates its full support for the National Assembly, a democratically elected constitutional institution, at present responsible for the executive power in Venezuela, according to the country's legitimate Supreme Court," Brazil's foreign ministry said in a statement this afternoon.

Today´s development compounds pressure on western oil companies that have oil and gas assets and operations in Venezuela. The Opec country´s oil production has plummeted over the past year, but the state-owned industry is seen as a central component of a future reconstruction campaign.

Venezuela's many jilted creditors are hoping that a transitional government will implement a comprehensive debt restructuring. In a statement issued today, New York-based bonderholders´committee said it considers the assembly to be "the only legitimately elected body in Venezuela and wishes to underscore its position that, consistent with OFAC sanctions, it will not negotiate with the current regime," adding that it plans to keep channels of communication open with "all non-sanctioned stakeholders" in anticipation of a restructuring and economic reform program "under a domestically and internationally legitimate government."

Maduro´s re-inauguration to a second six-year term was condemned as illegitimate by over 50 countries including the US, Canada, EU, the Lima Group and the Organization of American States (OAS). The ceremony officiated by the government-controlled Supreme Court, rather than the National Assembly as instructed by the constitution, triggered more targeted international sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, on top of US financial sanctions imposed in August 2017.

"I invoke Articles 233, 333 and 350 of the constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to call immediate free elections, and for the unity of the people, armed forces and international community to end the usurpation" of Maduro, Guaidó declared at the rally of hundreds of Venezuelans held outside the UN office in Caracas today.

Article 233 says the head of the assembly will assume the presidency until new elections are held whenever the sitting president is incapacitated, abandons the presidency or the popular will revokes his mandate.

The assembly already has declared Maduro's second government to be illegitimate, but likely will issue more resolutions to that effect before a scheduled 23 January march aimed at forcing Maduro out of office. The evocative date recalls the 1958 ouster of Venezuela´s former dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez.

Article 333 says the constitution is valid and prevails even when it is ignored or revoked unconstitutionally.

A legislative aide to Guaidó said his declared assumption of executive powers is intended to block any attempt by the government-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) and Supreme Court to replace the 1999 constitution with a new charter and dissolve the assembly before its constitutional term ends in 2021.

Article 350 says the people of Venezuela will disavow and reject any government contrary to Venezuela's democratic values and principles.

The opposition is hoping the march will compel Maduro to peacefully resign and transfer power to the assembly until new elections are held in a 30-day period.

Guaidó emerged from relative obscurity in recent weeks, the latest in a long line of opposition figures, many of whom are behind bars or in exile. Guaidó is younger and is seen as less encumbered politically than his predecessors.

The military´s stance will be critical to determining the fate of this latest effort to dislodge Maduro. Guaidó called on the armed forces to support the people's march and urged Venezuelans to take the streets to reclaim their democracy.

Venezuela´s top military brass holds senior positions in the Maduro government and has been loyal to him since he came to power in 2013, following the death of former president Hugo Chavez. But rank and file troops suffer the same deprivations of food, medicine and basic services as ordinary Venezuelans do.

Guaidó's announcement could spark another violent government crackdown on the long-divided opposition.

There was no immediate response from the presidential palace to Guaidó's announcement.

Constituent assembly president Diosdado Cabello, part of Maduro´s inner circle, has threatened physical harm against Maduro's opponents, warning last week that anyone who tries to force Maduro from power will be treated as "an enemy invader and traitor."

A senior member of the Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) party tells Argus that Guaidó is aware of the "life-threatening" risks of his initiative, but said it was his "only option".

"Keeping silent and not invoking the constitution's authority to strip Maduro of his executive powers would have been a surrender to the dictatorial status quo and would have buried any chance of restoring democracy for years to come."


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25/03/13

Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude

Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude

London, 13 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has bought its first cargo of Equatorial Guinea's medium sweet Ceiba crude, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Dangote bought the 950,000 bl cargo loading over 12-13 April from BP earlier this week, sources told Argus . Price levels of the deal were kept under wraps. Most Ceiba exports typically go to China. Around 18,000 b/d discharged there last year, while three shipments went to Spain and one to the Netherlands, according to Vortexa data. This year, two cargoes loading in February and March are signalling Zhanjiang in China, according to tracking data. Traders note that buying a Ceiba cargo is part of Dangote's efforts to diversify its crude sources. Last month the refinery bought its first cargo of Algeria's light sweet Saharan Blend crude from trading firm Glencore, which is due to be delivered over 15-20 March. Market sources said Dangote seems to have sourced competitively priced crude from Equatorial Guinea at a time when domestic grades are facing sluggish demand from Nigeria's core European market amid ample supply of cheaper Kazakh-origin light sour CPC Blend, US WTI and Mediterranean sweet crudes. Several European refineries are due to undergo maintenance in April, which is also weighing on demand. Nigeria's state-owned NNPC is currently in negotiations with the Dangote refinery about extending a local currency crude sales arrangement , which involves crude prices being set in dollars and Dangote paying the naira equivalent at a discounted exchange rate. Any changes to the terms of the programme may pressure Dangote to increase the amount of foreign crude in its slate. Refinery sources told Argus in January that Dangote will source at least 50pc of its crude needs on the import market and is building eight storage tanks to facilitate this. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs


25/03/13
25/03/13

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

London, 13 March (Argus) — The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) has raised tariffs by 15pc on imports "across board", taking effect on 3 March, according to a document shown to Argus . The move comes as the independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery continues to capture domestic market share through aggressive price cuts, pushing imported gasoline below market value in the country. Sources said that Dangote cut ex-rack gasoline prices to 805 naira/litre (52¢/l) today, from between 818-833N/l. The rise in NPA tariffs may add on additional cost pressures onto trading houses shipping gasoline to Nigeria, potentially affecting price competitiveness against Dangote products further. The move would increase product and crude cargo import costs, according to market participants. But one shipping source said the impact would be marginal as current costs are "slim", while one west African crude trader noted that the tariffs would amount to a few cents per barrel and represent a minor rise in freight costs. Port dues in Nigeria are currently around 20¢/bl, the trader added. One shipping source expects oil products imports to continue to flow in, because demand is still there. Nigeria's NNPC previously said the country's gasoline demand is on average around 37,800 t/d. Over half of supplies come from imports, the country's downstream regulator NMDPRA said. According to another shipping source, Dangote supplied around 526,000t of gasoline in the country, making up over half of product supplied. The refinery also supplied 113,000t of gasoil — a third of total total volumes in the country — and half of Nigeria's jet at 28,000t. By George Maher-Bonnett and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty


25/03/13
25/03/13

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

London, 13 March (Argus) — The uncertainty around US tariffs could weigh on demand for finished lubricant and base oil, trade body ILMA told Argus . US President Donald Trump has decreed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, a key import source for these materials used in auto manufacturing. The US sources about 70pc of its aluminium imports and around 23pc of its steel imports from its northern neighbour. ILMA chief executive Holly Alfano said the White House recognises that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs "creates a challenging business environment". "A slowdown in auto sales and production due to tariffs could lead to reduced demand for these products," Alfano told Argus. "Manufacturers may postpone investments or expansion plans due to unpredictable costs and market conditions," she said. "If vehicle prices rise due to increased production costs, consumer demand may decline, leading to further reductions in automotive output and associated lubricant consumption." Automotive vehicle production forecasts have fallen to 15.5mn in 2025 since the tariff announcement, down by 250,000 vehicles from the prior estimate by AutoForecast Solutions. This would put output broadly in line with 2024 , stifling growth in finished lubricant demand. US government data show car sales fell by 5pc in 2024, and finished lubricant sales dropped 6pc over the same period. Although lubricant sales are not entirely correlated with new car sales, Alfano noted the auto sector is "a significant consumer of finished lubricants". As it stands the tariffs on steel and aluminium will not now be implemented until 2 April. The White House has said this is to "allow for the flow of parts and sub assembly products into America, to allow American car manufacturers to continue building cars." The US administration is scheduled to host Canadian and Ontario officials today to discuss a possible easing in tariffs. If these talks yield no progress, and if a month is insufficient for supply chains to be reorganised, the tariffs could stunt automotive manufacturing and in turn lubricants needed for these new vehicles. Ontario premier Doug Ford has cautioned the 25pc tariffs could halt the auto manufacturing industry in as little as 10 days. While the US is self-sufficient in terms of its Group II base oils, it is a net importer of Group III, with only 4pc nameplate capacity, and both are key to automotive lubricant production. The US is an importer of Canadian Group III base oils from Petro-Canada's 4,000 b/d plant in Mississauga, Ontario. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook


25/03/13
25/03/13

IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook

London, 13 March (Argus) — The IEA today downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, noting a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions driven by rising trade tensions. It sees a larger supply surplus as a result, which could be greater still depending on Opec+ policy. The Paris-based agency, in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), sees oil demand rising by 1.03mn b/d to 103.91mn b/d in 2025, down from a projected rise of 1.10mn b/d in its previous OMR. The IEA said recent oil demand data have underwhelmed, and it has cut its growth estimates for the final three months of 2024 and the first three months of this year. US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on various goods arriving in the US from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on all imports of steel and aluminium. Some countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own on US imports, raising the prospect of a full-blown trade war. The IEA said US tariffs on Canada and Mexico "may impact flows and prices from the two countries that accounted for roughly 70pc of US crude oil imports last year." But it is still too early to assess the full effects of these trade policies on the wider oil market given the scope and scale of tariffs remain unclear and that negotiations are continuing, the IEA said. For now, the IEA's latest estimates see US demand growth this year slightly higher than its previous forecast. It sees US consumption increasing by 90,000 b/d to 20.40mn b/d, compared with a projected rise of 70,000 b/d in the prior OMR. The downgrades to its global oil demand forecast were mainly driven by India and South Korea. The agency also noted latest US sanctions on Russia and Iran had yet to "significantly disrupt loadings, even as some buyers have scaled back loadings." The IEA's latest balances show global supply exceeding demand by 600,000 b/d in 2025, compared with 450,000 b/d in its previous forecast. It said the surplus could rise to 1mn b/d if Opec+ members continue to raise production beyond April. Eight members of the Opec+ alliance earlier this month agreed to proceed with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts over an 18 month period starting in April. The IEA said the actual output increase in April may only be 40,000 b/d, not the 138,000 b/d implied under the Opec+ plan, as most are already exceeding their production targets. The IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.5mn b/d this year to 104.51mn b/d, compared with projected growth of 1.56mn b/d in its previous report. The agency does not incorporate any further supply increases from Opec+ beyond the planned April rise. The IEA said global observed stocks fell by 40.5mn bl in January, of which 26.1mn bl were products. Preliminary data for February show a rebound in global stocks, lifted by an increase in oil on water, the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в Казахстане в марте выросла


25/03/13
25/03/13

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в Казахстане в марте выросла

Riga, 13 March (Argus) — Ставка экспортной пошлины на нефть в Казахстане в марте увеличилась до $78/т с $77/т — в феврале. Среднее значение котировок сорта Kebco (cif Аугуста) и Североморского датированного в период мониторинга цен с 20 декабря по 20 февраля составило $78/барр. по сравнению с $77/барр. — в период предыдущего мониторинга, по данным министерства финансов Казахстана. С сентября 2023 г. ежемесячная ставка пошлины на экспорт нефти и нефтепродуктов в Казахстане меняется при изменении средней мировой цены на $1/барр. вместо прежних $5/барр. в пределах диапазона $25—105/барр. При средней рыночной цене нефти $25—105/барр. размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины рассчитывается по следующей формуле: ВТП=Ср*К, где ВТП — размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины на нефть и нефтепродукты в долларах США за тонну; Ср — средняя рыночная цена нефти за предшествующий период; К — поправочный коэффициент 1. При значении средней рыночной цены на нефть до $25/барр. размер ставки вывозной таможенной пошлины равен нулю. При цене свыше $105/барр. применяются ставки вывозной пошлины в диапазоне от $115/т до $236/т. Средняя рыночная цена определяется министерством финансов Казахстана ежемесячно на основании мониторинга котировок Kebco и Североморского датированного в течение двух предыдущих месяцев. Полученный результат мониторинга в соответствии с поправками математически округляется до целого числа. ________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических материалов о рынках нефти и нефтепродуктов стран Каспийского региона и Центральной Азии — в еженедельном отчете Argus Рынок Каспия . Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

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