Drop in biodiesel prices supports trading

Spanish Market: Biofuels
06/05/20

Physical trading of northwest European benchmark biodiesel grade Fame 0°C CFPP (Fame 0) hit a record high in April, supported by spot price declines during Covid-19 lockdowns in the EU and following record volumes of futures trading for the grade in March.

The crash in European diesel demand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in many participants in the European biodiesel market turning to Fame 0 futures to manage risk exposure, taking on new positions and adjusting those set out before the lockdowns.

A record 18,245 lots of 100t Fame 0 contracts changed hands at a premium to low sulphur gasoil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in March, up from just 6,170 in February and eclipsing the previous all-time high of 12,680 lots in November 2019.

With prices hitting lows at the end of March not recorded since Argus began assessing the grade in 2011, physical liquidity then picked up significantly, with much of the product bought in April probably going into storage — as suggested by inquires for floating storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region — before expected price gains connected with the easing of lockdown measures.

An all-time high 180,000t of physical Fame 0 traded for prompt loading in April, with a daily record of 25,000t changing hands on 24 April. This represented an increase of 131pc from traded volumes in March and a rise of 49pc on the year.

Domestically produced rapeseed oil methyl ester (RME) — another northwest European biodiesel benchmark — slipped below fob Dutch mill rapeseed oil (RSO) prompt prices for the first time in March. Accordingly, in April major RME plants in the region began to run at reduced capacity or shut down altogether, also driving a rise in associated futures trading.

Traded volumes of RME futures in March increased by 6,282 lots on the month to 8,582 lots of 100t, before rising again to a nine-month high in April of 9,430 lots. Spot liquidity for RME has been more measured given the seasonal norms associated with its cold-weather properties. Physical trade totalled 46,000t in April, up by 53pc from volumes in March but lower by the same percentage when compared with April 2019, with an unseasonably high level of trade that month owed to firm prices in the first quarter of the year.

Demand for physical biodiesel has been broadly supported by efforts of EU members to ramp up their use of renewable fuels to meet a 10pc target in transport this year under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED).

In January-April 2020, spot trading of RME and Fame 0 combined totalled 621,000t, a large increase from the 444,000t recorded over the four-month period last year.

By Giulia Squadrin

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31/10/24

US biofuel feedstock use dips in August

New York, 31 October (Argus) — Renewable feedstock usage in the US was down slightly in August but still near all-time highs, even as biomass-based diesel production capacity slipped. There were nearly 3.5bn lbs of renewable feedstocks sent to biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production in August this year, up from fewer than 3bn lbs a year prior, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update report. August consumption was 0.4pc below levels in July and 0.5pc below record-high levels in June. US soybean oil consumption for biofuels rose to 39.3mn lbs/d in August, up by 2.1pc from a year earlier on a per-pound basis and up 6.9pc from a month prior. The increase was entirely attributable to increased usage for renewable diesel production, with the feedstock's use for biodiesel slipping slightly from July. Canola oil consumption for biofuels hit 14.2mn lbs/d, up by 58.1pc from a year prior on a per-bound basis but still 19.4pc below record-high levels in July. Distillers corn oil usage, typically less volatile month-to-month than other feedstocks, bucked that trend to hit a high for the year of 13.6mn lbs/d in August. That monthly consumption is up 13.6pc from a year earlier and 20.9pc from a month earlier. Among waste feedstocks, usage of yellow grease, which includes used cooking oil, rose to 22.4mn lbs/d in August, up 13.8pc from levels a year prior and 5.8pc from levels in July. Tallow consumption for biofuels was at 18.6 mn lbs/d over the month, an increase of 27.8pc from August last year but a decrease of 13.4pc from July this year. Production capacity of renewable diesel and similar biofuels — including renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, and renewable gasoline — was at 4.6bn USG/yr in August, according to EIA. That total is 24.1pc higher than a year earlier and flat from July levels. US biodiesel production capacity meanwhile declined to fewer than 2bn USG/yr over the month, down by 4.3pc from a year earlier and 1.3pc from a month earlier. US biomass-based diesel production capacity has expanded considerably in recent years, but refiners have recently confronted challenging economics as ample supply of fuels used to comply with government programs has helped depress the prices of environmental credits and hurt margins. The industry is also bracing for changes to federal policy given this year's election and a new clean fuel tax credit set to kick off in January. That credit, known as "45Z", will offer a greater subsidy to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions, likely encouraging refiners to source more waste feedstocks over vegetable oils. That dynamic is already shaping feedstock usage this year, with Phillips 66 executives saying this week that the company's renewable fuels refinery in California is currently running more higher carbon-intensity feedstocks ahead of a shift to using more waste early next year. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US court set to weigh biofuel blend mandates

31/10/24

US court set to weigh biofuel blend mandates

New York, 31 October (Argus) — A US court on Friday will weigh some novel issues that could affect enforcement of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the federal program that sets minimum biofuel blending levels for domestic motor fuel supplies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in last year's RFS regulation required refiners and importers to blend increasing volumes of renewable fuel from 2023-2025. But the rule differed from past obligations in a crucial way. While the RFS law set annual volume targets of cellulosic, advanced and conventional biofuels through 2022, it tasked EPA with setting volumes in subsequent years by balancing factors such as the environmental impacts of biofuels, energy security, expected production and consumer costs. 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In a separate case this year, the DC Circuit discarded EPA rejections of program waiver petitions, in part because judges disagreed that refiners can easily pass on the cost of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits used to show compliance with the RFS program. EPA used this pass-through theory in the 2023-2025 rule "like a magic wand, waving it around to dismiss any argument that the rule will cause harm", the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and small refineries said in a case filing. Lafferty expects the judges at Friday's hearing to probe the extent to which EPA's volumes relied on this pass-through theory, "a policy that now this very court has gutted." Environmentalists have similarly targeted EPA's cost analysis, arguing that the agency downplayed the environmental drawbacks of growing crops for energy. The Center for Biological Diversity and the National Wildlife Federation argue that EPA has legal discretion to set post-2022 volumes for corn- and soybean-derived biofuels as low as zero. EPA counters that the court owes the agency deference in evaluating scientific data and making predictive judgments. And biofuel groups that have intervened argue that the program is designed to require more biofuel production even if there are no formal volume requirements in law anymore. While EPA's post-2022 authority to set blend mandates is a new issue, the DC Circuit has handled various cases about EPA's implementation and has generally been deferential to the agency's volume decisions. The court this year upheld 2020-2022 targets. In a 2019 decision, the court kept volumes in place , despite telling EPA to more deeply weigh endangered species impacts. While the court might take issue with some aspects of EPA's latest rule, including the agency's lateness in finalizing volumes, judges could again be reluctant to upend fuel markets if they find only small oversights. Depending on how skeptical judges appear about EPA's arguments on Friday, the case could cause concern for biorefineries. A decision is expected next year, meaning any order for EPA to better justify its decisions or go back to the drawing board would likely fall to the next president's administration. On the panel for Friday's hearing are two judges familiar with the program: Democratic appointee Cornelia Pillard, who wrote the opinion this year upholding 2020-2022 blend mandates, and Republican appointee Gregory Katsas, who dissented and said those volumes were excessive. The third judge on the panel is Democratic appointee J. Michelle Childs. RINcrease or decrease RIN market activity has thinned as participants await the results of the court case and November's presidential election. In its latest rule, EPA aimed to provide a clearer picture over a longer timeline by finalizing volumes over multiple years. But the agency underestimated the growth in renewable diesel production, partly because of unexpectedly high feedstock imports. The result has been persistent oversupply, which took D4 biomass-based diesel credit prices from around 150¢/RIN in spring last year to as low as 42¢/RIN a year later according to Argus assessments. Multiple refiners have consequently dialed back biofuel production. In the past, RIN prices have proven sensitive to legal developments as traders anticipate supply and demand shifts. Prices softened this summer after the DC Circuit vacated small refinery waivers, leaving it unclear whether many facilities would have to buy RIN credits at all. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cepsa rebrands to Moeve to reflect sustainability shift

30/10/24

Cepsa rebrands to Moeve to reflect sustainability shift

Madrid, 30 October (Argus) — Spain-based integrated energy company Cepsa has changed its name for the first time in its 95 years of existence, to Moeve (pronounced Moo-eh-vey). The change reflects Cepsa's transition "in which the majority of profits will come from sustainable activities by the end of this decade," said chief executive Maarten Wetselaar. Cepsa has sold nearly 70pc of its oil and gas production over the past two years, including its stakes in upstream assets in Abu Dhabi , in Peru and in Colombia . It has retained stakes in light crude and gas production in Algeria, which has a significantly lower carbon footprint. The company reported provisional working interest crude production of 36,000 b/d in July-September, down from 80,000 b/d in the same period of 2021. Since then it has announced an €8bn ($8.65bn) investment strategy to decarbonise much of its business through ventures such at the planned 2GW Andalusian Hydrogen Valley , announced at the end of 2022, together with second-generation biofuels, biomethane and renewables development. Cepsa, or Compañia Espanola de Petroleos SA, was founded in 1929. It has been been majority controlled by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth investors IPIC and Mubadala Investment Company since 2011. US investment fund Carlyle acquired 37pc of the firm in 2019. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rodeo renewable jet unlikely in 4Q: Phillips 66

29/10/24

Rodeo renewable jet unlikely in 4Q: Phillips 66

Houston, 29 October (Argus) — Phillips 66's renewable fuels refinery in Rodeo, California, plans to start producing renewable jet fuel by the first quarter of next year and is now running higher carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks to produce renewable diesel (RD). "We're currently running off higher CI feedstocks for the plant as we prepare for the production tax credit next year," Phillips 66's executive vice president of marketing and commercial Brian Mandell said on an earnings call today, referring to the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) 45Z tax credit . He said it was not likely renewable jet fuel would be produced before year-end. The plant successfully produced sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in September, chief executive Mark Lashier said on the call. "We will fully intend to be a supplier of sustainable aviation fuel to the marketplace," he said. The company's renewable fuels business logged a $116mn loss in the third quarter compared to a profit of $22mn in the same three months of 2023, according to earnings released today . Still, Phillips 66 thinks renewable refining margins have room to widen "into the fourth quarter and beyond," Mandell said. Low feedstock prices, limited imports to the US, a tight fossil diesel market on the west coast and "stronger" credit markets will widen RD margins, according to Mandell. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

B24 bunker demand in Asia, Middle East to rise in 2025

25/10/24

B24 bunker demand in Asia, Middle East to rise in 2025

Singapore, 25 October (Argus) — B24 bunker demand in the key ports of Singapore, Zhoushan and Fujairah will likely rise in 2025, because of increased demand ahead of the implementation of the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation. Regional demand for B24 — which consists of 24pc used cooking oil methy ester (Ucome) and 76pc very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) — is expected to rise as shipowners prepare to meet more stringent mandates set by the EU and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) from next year, said market participants. FuelEU Maritime aims to raise the share of renewable and low-carbon fuels in the fuel mix of maritime transport within the EU, and will set requirements for greenhouse gas emission reductions against a 2020 baseline level, starting with 2pc in 2025. The use of B24 is a relatively low-cost way to help meet the new mandate and is available at key ports globally. Competition for B24 is rising in Asia and the Middle East as port authorities revisit local rules and permits. The Zhoushan Port Authority will obtain the domestic blend permit by the end of the year, it said recently at a local conference,which will pave the way for key local refiners to blend and sell B24 to local and international shipowners. The quota is likely to be divided among Chinese majors like PetroChina (CNPC), Sinopec, and CNOOC. The port authorities further mentioned that CNPC and Sinopec are expected to each receive a blending quota of 200,000t of B24, while CNOOC will receive a blend quota of 100,000t in 2025. There were no further details available or any other formal announcement. But regional traders and shipowners, which have been waiting for the lifting of restrictions by the Chinese government, expect the move will allow shipowners more options to bunker B24 in this region. European market participants expect this B24 blending permit, if allocated, may pull some marine biodiesel demand towards Zhoushan and away from shipowners operating on east-west routes between Singapore and Europe.B24 blends in Zhoushan could end up pricing very competitively against VLSFO when EU emission trading system (ETS) costs are accounted for, given easing prices for Chinese-origin biodiesel, participants added. And FuelEU Maritime's pooling mechanism, which allows shipowners to pool different vessels together to achieve overall compliance across the pool, will enable shipowners that operate east-west routes to pool those vessels with other vessels that operate only within the EU — opening the door for marine biodiesel bunkered in Zhoushan to help meet FuelEU compliance. Singapore B24 consumption has been on the rise in Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, through 2024 because of demand from regional and international shipowners for refuelling of this blended marine fuels. B24 consumption touched 470,300t between January to September, according to data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). Demand for B24 is expected to near 800,000t by the end of 2024, up from 518,000t in 2023. Zhoushan remains competitively priced versus Singapore for VLSFO, with Singapore's delivered on board (dob) prices for the past year showing a $3/t premium versus Zhoushan on average, based on Argus data. But Singapore-based traders remain confident that the city-state will continue to lead the region in terms of B24 bunkering demand into 2025. "I think both ports will co-exist and there will be price competition…also it doesn't replace Singapore as the main port, do note," said a key global trader and refiner. Singapore is also the cheapest in terms of B24 pricing, compared with other key ports like Rotterdam and Fujairah. The spread between Singapore versus Rotterdam since 24 April shows a $94/t discount for bunkering in the former port, while the discount for Singapore with Fujairah stood at an average of $39.4/t, based on Argus data. Middle East Bunkering B24 has been picking up in the Middle East since the end of 2023, with sporadic demand trickling in this year. "We receive enquiries for B24 once or twice a month, sometimes even less than that for small volumes of 150-200t," one Fujairah-based trader said. But this could change following the implementation of the EU's FuelEU Maritime regulation from January 2025 . The EU is an important market and a regular destination for much of the maritime traffic passing through Fujairah, so the new regulations are likely to be a trigger for change, market participants said. "Many vessels refuel in Fujairah before calling at EU ports," one trader says. "They already have to comply with the EU ETS, [Carbon Intensity Index], and will need to also comply with FuelEU." By Mahua Chakravarty, Hussein Al-Khalisy and Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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