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China in new push for national emissions trading scheme

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Metals
  • 05/11/20

The Chinese government has released a new consultation plan for a long-delayed national emissions trading scheme (ETS), after president Xi Jinping's pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 added new urgency to the country's emissions reduction plans.

China already operates emissions trading programmes on a pilot basis in several cities. But moves towards a nationwide scheme have stalled for several years.

The plan was released by the ecology and environment ministry, which took over responsibility for establishing the national ETS from top economic planning body the NDRC in 2018. The ministry is also be responsible for regulating carbon emissions in China.

The consultation plan sets a cut-off point of 26,000 t/yr of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions, above which entities should be included in the ETS. This level is equivalent to consumption of 10,000 t/yr of standards coal equivalent, it said.

This indicates the planned ETS would cover a broader range of entities than in the pilot scheme that began in 2013 and will potentially raise emissions costs for industrial operations such as coal-fired power plants, steel mills and refineries.

China's pilot carbon market covers more than 3,000 entities in over 20 industrial sectors, including steel, power generation and cement. Total trading volumes were 400mn t of CO2e of as of August, state media said.

Under the new plan, entities will be able to use China certified emissions reduction (CCER) projects to offset as much as 5pc of emissions by volume. A single CCER unit will be able to offset 1t of CO2e, which could come from sources such as renewable projects, carbon sinks and methane recovery.

Participating entities will get free emission quotas "at the first stage" of the ETS, and then buy and sell more quotas in the market as needed when the initial quotas have been used. Entities will face fines or other penalties if they default or engage in fraud when declaring emissions volumes, although the size of the proposed fines is relatively low at 10,000-30,000 yuan ($1,500-4,500).

There is still no timescale for the ETS, although the ministry said it is accelerating its plans for the launch. Xi's carbon neutrality pledge, made in September, has focused attention on how China will reduce its world-leading carbon emissions after a planned peak before 2030.


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14/01/25

Canada's tariff response may be ‘unprecedented’: Ford

Canada's tariff response may be ‘unprecedented’: Ford

Calgary, 14 January (Argus) — Tariffs threatened by president-elect Donald Trump against Canada will hurt the province of Ontario the most, the premier of the country's most populated province said this week, so all options must be considered should retaliation be required. "We have to use all the tools possible," said Ontario premier Doug Ford in 13 January press conference, less than one week before Trump's inauguration and the potential imposition of 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. "We might have to do things that are unprecedented," which could include withholding shipments of minerals, Ford said. Ontario accounts for about 40pc of Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) and is known for its manufacturing, automotive and critical mineral industries. Ford's position runs in contrast to comments made earlier by Alberta premier Danielle Smith that cutting off Canadian energy flows to the US is a non-starter and would not happen . "Well, that's Danielle Smith, she's speaking for Alberta, she's not speaking for the country," Ford said. "I'm speaking for Ontario, that's going to get hurt a lot more. They aren't going to go after the oil, they're coming after Ontario." "I want to ship him more critical minerals, I want to ship him more energy, but make no mistake about it, if they're coming full-tilt at us I won't hesitate to pull out every single tool we have until they can feel the pain," Ford said. "But that's the last thing I want to do." Smith met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over the weekend, which was a welcome move by Ford, who said he has been working the phones calling American politicians daily. Even so, Canada's response needs to come from the federal government, which has so far been lacking, in Ford's view. "This is their jurisdiction," said Ford. "They need to come up with a strong plan. They need to be doing everything, every single day to make sure we avoid these tariffs." Premiers will meet with prime minister Justin Trudeau this week to strategize how to deal with potential tariffs. Trudeau said last week he planned to resign amid low polls and party infighting with a new leader to be chosen on 9 March. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cliffs still seeks US Steel, pledges no closures


13/01/25
13/01/25

Cliffs still seeks US Steel, pledges no closures

Houston, 13 January (Argus) — Cleveland-Cliffs chief executive Lourenco Goncalves said today that he remains open to buying US Steel, promising to keep all of the acquired assets open. Goncalves said Ohio-based Cliffs still wants to buy Pennsylvania-based US Steel and would invest in the company's assets. "Of course, we are going to keep [US Steel mills] open," Goncalves told reporters on Monday. "We are going to make them bigger, we are going to make them better, we are going to produce more." His comments come 10 days after President Joe Biden blocked Japan-based Nippon Steel's agreement to buy US Steel for $15bn, citing national security concerns. Nippon had committed to invest $1.3bn in US Steel's mills and to not cut any of US Steel's production for 10 years without government approval. Cliffs tried to buy US Steel for $54/share with half paid in cash and half in company stock before US Steel agreed to go with Nippon's $55/share all-cash offer. Goncalves promise to not close any acquired assets comes as the US steel market remains oversupplied , according to market sources. Goncalves said he cannot make a bid for US Steel until the company and Nippon cancel their merger agreement. He also dismissed antitrust concerns over Cliffs owning all US iron ore mines and all US blast furnace capacity. A combined company would have Cliffs running the mining side of the business and US Steel running the steelmaking operations, he said. A US Steel-Cliffs merger would have 32.1mn short tons (st)/yr of flat rolled raw steel capacity, in addition to plate making and seamless tube production. Goncalves did not say how he would finance such a purchase. Cliffs had $3.8bn in liquidity as of 30 September, including $39mn of cash, according to a third-quarter presentation. US Steel had $4.05bn in liquidity in the same period, of which $1.77bn was cash. Nippon is trying to buy US Steel. Both companies have sued Biden and others in the government over the denial, and filed a separate lawsuit against Cliffs, Goncalves and United Steelworkers (USW) International president David McCall, who endorsed a takeover by Cliffs. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs on Canada likely, oil cut-off not: Alberta


13/01/25
13/01/25

US tariffs on Canada likely, oil cut-off not: Alberta

Calgary, 13 January (Argus) — Tariffs threatened by the US against Canada will become a reality, according to the premier of oil-rich Alberta , but any retaliation will not entail cutting off energy exports. "They're likely to come in on January 20th," Alberta premier Danielle Smith said of the tariffs on Monday after she met with US president-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over the weekend. "I haven't seen anything that suggests that he's changing course." Trump in late-November said he plans to impose a 25pc tariff against all imports from Canada, citing inadequate border controls and a US trade deficit. Canada has since pledged to spend more money on border security while Smith reckons Canada would have a deficit if not for energy trade. "We actually buy more goods and services from the US than they buy from us," Smith said in an online interview with reporters. "We actually have $58bn in a trade deficit with the Americans when you take energy out." Smith wanted assurances the US is still interested in buying Canadian oil and gas, with her province being the heart of the country's energy sector. "Oil and gas is going to be key for being able to get a breakthrough, once the tariffs do come in, in getting them off," said Smith. Canadian foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly said in a 12 January interview broadcast on CTV that the country could consider stopping the flow of Canadian energy in retaliation to tariffs. But Smith said that would not happen since the oil are owned by the province, not the federal government. "[The federal government] will have a national unity crisis on their hands at the same time as having a crisis with our US trade partners," said Smith. About 80pc of Canada's 5mn b/d of crude production is consumed by refineries in the US, with many in the Midcontinent having no practical alternative , according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). The region imported 2.7mn b/d of Canadian crude in October, the latest data point from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). "I hope cooler heads prevail," said Smith, adding that Trump seemed interested in buying more oil and gas. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November


13/01/25
13/01/25

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

Mexico City, 13 January (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production edged up 0.1pc in November, as gains in autos and other manufacturing offset weaker construction, national statistics agency Inegi said. Mexican bank Banorte described the monthly increase as "rather small," noting it followed a 1.1pc decline in October and was largely driven by base comparison effects. The bank added that the overall industrial outlook remained "fragile." Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), increased by 0.7pc in November, though it failed to fully recover from a 1.7pc drop in October. Transportation manufacturing, a key subsector accounting for 12pc of the sector, rose by 3.8pc after a steep 4.3pc decline the prior month. Despite recent volatility, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production in 2024, reaching 3.99mn units. Yet, automaker association AMIA warned of potential challenges in 2025 because of economic uncertainty, which could affect investment and demand. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, increased by 0.1pc in November following a 1.1pc decline in October. Growth was driven by a 41.4pc jump in mining-related services, while oil and gas output fell by 2.4pc, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 1.8pc in November after modest gains of 0.2pc in October and 1.1pc in September. As industry eyes potential policy shifts under US president-elect Donald Trump, Banorte projected a weak start to 2025 for Mexico's industrial output. But it expects momentum to build as government spending on priority infrastructure projects "moves more decisively." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lithium prices unlikely to recover in 2025


13/01/25
13/01/25

Lithium prices unlikely to recover in 2025

London, 13 January (Argus) — Prices for lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) are unlikely to recover this year, according to market participants, owing to high inventories and Chinese overcapacity. While the vast majority of firms have either suspended or trimmed production at costs above Argus -assessed prices (see graph) , a number of other factors have weighed on price rises, including redundant Chinese lithium refining capacity, inventories of low and mid-grade concentrate and end-of-life LFP batteries. Chinese lepidolite, African low-grade ores and Brazilian tailings are "not immune" to low prices, according to supply chain consultantcy SC Insights. Prices are currently far below highs of $80,000/t in late 2022, although not at record lows by historical standards. "We have put our lithium plant in Zimbabwe on ice for now, margins are just too tight," a southern Africa-based producer said. The market could start to recover in the second half of 2026 as carmakers turn increasingly towards lower-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, SC Insights said. Between 2025 and 2026, major carmakers will start "socialising the intensions of using more LFP and LFMP [lithium iron manganese phosphate]", with it especially vital that LFMP producers "react early and offer a cost-competitive solution in CAM/LIB [cathode active material/lithium-ion battery] spaces". SC Insights forecasts that global annual LCE production will tip over 2.5mn t of LCE by 2030 (see graph) , from just over 1mn t last year, based on the adoption of these newer battery chemistries. Buildout of this supply will depend, SC Insights said, on the proposed restriction of CAM/LIB technology by China. The buildout of Argentinian lithium production could be a key factor in 2025, according to SC Insights, after global mining giant Rio Tinto announced last October that it would buy Arcadium Lithium. Argentinian president Javier Milei and Rio Tinto held a meeting in December 2024 and although it is unclear what the results of that meeting were, the relationship between Rio Tinto and the Argentinian government could be important for the lithium market this year. Argentina holds the third-largest reserves of lithium at 3.6mn t behind Chile and Australia, and the second-largest pool of resources at 23mn t, behind Bolivia, according to the US Geological Survey in January. By Chris Welch Cost of production, lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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