Viewpoint: Asian biodiesel resurgence limited by costs

Spanish Market: Biofuels
28/12/20

Rising blending mandates in Europe and an economic recovery from Covid-19 are set to fuel demand for Asian biodiesel and feedstocks, although liquidity could be neutered by high costs in the short term.

Third-month fob Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil (CPO) futures rose to their highest since May 2012 in December, at 3,470 ringgit/t ($852/t), on tight supply, labour shortages and adverse weather.

Jakarta increased export levies on palm products on 10 December to fund its ambitious yet burdensome domestic 30pc biodiesel mandate (B30) in transport fuel, as it looked to subsidise the price difference between domestic biodiesel and gasoil.

This could lower the cost of domestic CPO and biodiesel but sharply lift export prices and further jam the arbitrage window, which was already closed by a wide palm oil-gasoil (POGO) spread and 8-18pc countervailing duties imposed on Indonesian producers by the EU since August 2019.

Export volumes are already scarce as producers will need to run at 80-85pc capacity to meet the B30 target. An additional 3.6mn kl/yr of output is set to be added next year to mitigate this and prepare for an even higher B40 target for 2022.

POGO rose to a 10-year high of $454/t in November, draining Indonesia's coffers in propping up B30 and also shutting down buying interest from the major European and Chinese markets, where palm usually needs to be around $120/t cheaper than diesel to encourage discretionary blending.

Net biodiesel exports from Malaysia declined by 57pc to 185,000t in January-September from 430,000t during the same period in 2019. Indonesian sales suffered an even worse downturn over the same period, slumping by 98pc to 21,000t from 1mn t.

CPO and biodiesel demand may be suppressed until the new harvest and peak season begins for palm-based biofuel towards the summer.

Palm price fallout

High palm costs are also having a knock-on effect for waste feedstocks beyond the region. Palm oil mill effluent (POME) prices typically follow the trajectory of CPO and snowballed to $740-770/t fob Malaysia by December, the highest level since Argus began assessing values in February.

Prices will also receive fresh impetus from the buy side as advanced feedstocks become increasingly sought after under the EU's new Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), which member states must transpose into national law by 31 June 2021.

They will outline how to increase the renewable energy share in transport to 14pc by 2030 from 10pc in 2020 while capping high indirect land use change feedstocks — namely palm oil — at 7pc and eventually phased out.

Waste-based raw materials such as used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow will be capped at 1.7pc and a 3.5pc sub-target will be set for those considered advanced, such as POME, under Annex IX part A of RED II. Member states such as France, Germany and the Netherlands have already outlined plans going beyond these targets, further lubricating residue feedstock flows.

Asian UCO and Ucome exports to Europe will continue to thrive especially once freed from the spectre of Covid-19, which lowered collections by 50pc at the peak of the pandemic. Malaysia's January-September UCO exports bore the brunt of this, declining by 53pc to 55,000t from 118,000t a year earlier.

But Indonesian exports swelled to 195,000t in January-October from 124,000t a year earlier, despite the pandemic. Vietnamese exports in January-November rose to 46,000t from 33,000t a year earlier, aided by a free-trade agreement with the EU exempting them from the usual 2pc import duty.

Chinese UCO exports totalled 737,000t over 2019 even as shutdowns curtailed European demand and tightened domestic supplies early in the year. Exports of 779,000t in January-October this year have already exceeded levels for the entirety of 2019, thanks to a swift rebound from Covid-19 in China. China's Ucome sales stood at 752,000t in January-October compared with 662,000t over the whole of 2019.

Bulk UCO and Ucome prices peaked in January 2020 at $855/t and $1,245/t fob China respectively, before coronavirus sterilised the market and lowered prices to $645/t and $800/t in the second quarter of the year.

Post-Covid rebound

Values have yet to recover fully but fresh price records are a distinct possibility in 2021 depending on the pace and strength of the rebound in Europe.

The International Energy Agency has predicted a 13.5pc year-on-year plummet in European biodiesel production in 2020 to 13.6bn litres given coronavirus shutdowns, and a rebound to 15.8bn l next year mostly on higher output of hydrotreated vegetable oil.

But liquidity is bottlenecked by a shortage of containers that has seen flexitank freight rates between China and Europe triple since September to $150/t in December. Little respite is expected until at least after Christmas when demand from north America and Europe subsides, although a significant price reduction may not emerge until after the lunar new year in February.

By Amandeep Parmar

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10/01/25

California governor eyes carbon market extension

Houston, 10 January (Argus) — California governor Gavin Newsom (D) is planning to start discussions with lawmakers to enact a formal extension of the state's cap-and-trade program. Newsom included the idea in the 2025-26 budget proposal he released on Friday. "The administration, in partnership with the legislature, will need to consider extending the cap-and-trade program beyond 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality," the governor's budget overview says. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) believes it has the authority to operate the program beyond 2030, but a legislative extension would put it on much firmer footing. The cap-and-trade program, which covers major sources of the state's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including power plants and transportation fuels, requires a 40pc cut from 1990 levels by 2030. CARB is eyeing tightening that target to 48pc as part of a rulemaking that could take effect next year to help keep the state on a path to carbon neutrality by 2045. Newsom's budget proposal highlighted the need to weigh the revenue received from the program carbon allowance auctions. That money goes to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF), which supports the state's clean economy transition through programs targeting GHG emissions reductions, such as subsidizing purchases for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The budget plan added few new climate commitments, instead prioritizing funding agreed to last year. The governor's $322.3bn 2025-26 budget proposal would continue cost-saving measures the state enacted in its 2024-25 budget to deal with a multi-billion-dollar deficit. These included shifting portions of expenditures from the state general fund to the GGRF over multiple budget years, such as $900mn for the state's Clean Energy Reliability Investment Plan. The state's $10bn Climate Bond, passed by voters in November 2024, would cover the majority of new climate-related spending, including taking on $32mn of the reliability plan spending. The change in funding source would allow the state Department of Motor Vehicles to utilize $81mn in GGRF funds to cover expenditures from CARB's Mobile Source Emissions Research Program. The governor's budget would also advance his proposal from October for CARB to evaluate allowing fuel blends with 15pc ethanol (E15) in the state, as a measure to lower gas prices. CARB would receive $2.3mn from Newsom's proposal to finish the multi-tier study it began in 2018 and implement the necessary regulatory changes to allow E15 at the pump. Currently, California allows only fuel blends with up to E10 because of environmental concerns, such as the potential for increased emissions of NOx, which contributes to smog, by allowing more ethanol. With the administration predicting a modest surplus of $363mn from higher state revenues, it is unlikely that California will return to the belt tightening of the past two state budgets. But the state cautions that tension with the incoming president-elect Donald Trump, potential import tariffs and ongoing state revenue volatility should leave California on guard for any potential future fiscal pitfalls. The state's legislature's non-partisan adviser cautioned in November that government spending continues to outpace revenues, with future deficits likely. The administration is keeping an eye on the issue, which could result in changes through the governor's May budget revision, state director of finance Joe Stephenshaw said. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mercosur-EU deal to open Brazil ethanol flows

10/01/25

Mercosur-EU deal to open Brazil ethanol flows

Sao Paulo, 10 January (Argus) — A freshly inked EU-Mercosur trade agreement marks an important opportunity for Brazil's burgeoning ethanol market, but will likely not significantly impact the country's well established sugar trade. Announced in December, the landmark pact provides for the gradual exemption of tariffs on most exports from the four participating Mercosur countries to the 27 European countries that make up the EU. Goods considered sensitive, including sugar and ethanol, will be subject to a quota system with more limited benefits. Export quotas for specific products from each of the participating South American countries — founding members Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — will be defined after the ratification of the agreement. For industrial ethanol originating in Mercosur and shipped to the EU, the agreement provides a maximum quota of 570,300 m³/yr (9,845 b/d), with tariffs gradually reduced to zero over the years. Non-industrial ethanol will have a quota of 253,400m³/yr, subject to a reduced tariff of €34-64/m³ ($34.82-65.55/m³), a third of current rates. The EU tariff on imported ethanol today ranges from €102/m³ for the denatured product — which includes chemical additives that make it unfit for consumption — to €192/m³ for the undenatured product. Quotas provided for in the agreement are more than enough to cover volumes Brazil exports to the EU. The South American country shipped 140,700 m³ of ethanol to countries in the European bloc in 2024, around 7pc of the 1.9mn m³ it exported in the year, according to trade ministry data. The terms of the agreement have caught the attention of market participants, who see an opportunity to revive trade flows to Europe, especially for industrial ethanol. EU countries soaked up around 30pc of Brazil's ethanol exports in 2022, but outflows have dropped significantly since. At the time, Brazil's ethanol gained a competitive edge during a period of rising energy prices in Europe amid the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic. The announcement of the agreement has put the EU back on the radar of Brazilian traders who stopped selling ethanol to Europe or those who are yet to enter the market. Slight impact for sugar The agreement is set to have less of an impact on Brazilian sugar exports, considering the approved quota and the volume normally exported to the EU. Mercosur will have a quota to send 180,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of sugar to the European bloc with zero tariffs, while the excess volumes of raw sugar will face the current customs duty of €98/t. The tariff-free volume represents a small portion of the total sweetener normally shipped to the European bloc. Brazil's center-south — which includes the main producing states — alone exported 540,000t of sugar to the EU in January-November 2024, according to sugar and ethanol industry association Unica. Raw sugar accounted for around 87pc of that total. Shipments in 2024 were still below the 804,000 t/yr five-year average for Brazilian sugar exports to the EU. If volumes in the coming years remain close to historical levels, less than 25pc of the annual volume shipped from Brazil will benefit from the new import duties. The EU is expected to import 2.4mn t of sugar in the 2024-25 crop, which extends from October 2024 to September 2025. The volume makes the bloc the third largest importer in the world, only behind Indonesia and China, according to US Department of Agriculture data. The volume approved in the agreement with Mercosur would represent less than 5pc of the imports expected by the EU, which limits the potential competitiveness of Brazilian sugar in the European market. Negotiations on terms of the Mercosur-EU agreement have been concluded, but the pact will only enter into force after final signing and subsequent ratification. By Maria Lígia Barros and Maria Albuquerque Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tidewater seeks Canadian import duties on US RD

08/01/25

Tidewater seeks Canadian import duties on US RD

Seattle, 8 January (Argus) — Canadian biofuels producer Tidewater Renewables is asking the federal government to impose countervailing and anti-dumping duties on renewable diesel (RD) imported from the US. Tidewater's complaint to the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) alleges the nation's renewable diesel market is being pressured by US producers who export volumes to Canada at artificially low prices because of US tax incentives — the now-retired blender's tax credit and pending Clean Fuel Production Credit. The complaint is also intended to alleviate pressure on emissions credits issued by British Columbia's low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) and Canada's Clean Fuel Regulation, Tidewater said Monday in a statement. Tidewater said duties of C$0.50-0.80/liter (35-56¢/liter) could be imposed at the border on US renewable diesel if the complain it upheld, reflecting an estimated subsidy and dumping benefit to US producers of 40-60pc. CBSA is charged with investigating and verifying the complaints, while the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) is responsible for determining if those activities have harmed the Canadian industry. For a CBSA investigation to proceed, the complaint must have support from producers representing at least 25pc of Canadian output. Evidence of injury could then include lower prices and lost sales, reduced market share or decreased profits, among other factors. An affirmative finding by the CITT would grant the CBSA authority to impose import duties, in this case intended to offset the alleged unfair price advantage held by US exporters. Preliminary duties could be imposed as early as May, following a preliminary injury finding by the CITT. Final duties — dependent on the ruling by the CITT — could be imposed by September, Tidewater said. The company in December cited challenging economic conditions in its decision to re-evaluate its renewable diesel production from March-onward at its 3,000 b/d renewable diesel plant in British Columbia. Tidewater's profitability is dependent on sales of British Columbia LCFS credits, and its credit purchase and sales agreement with parent company Tidewater Midstream is due to end in March. By Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia necessitates UCO, Pome oil export approvals

08/01/25

Indonesia necessitates UCO, Pome oil export approvals

Singapore, 8 January (Argus) — Indonesian exporters of palm oil derivative products must now obtain approvals to ship them out of the country, according to a regulation released by the Indonesian ministry of trade today. The palm oil derivative products include used cooking oil (UCO) and palm oil residue palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil. The regulation is to ensure adequate availability of feedstocks to support the rollout of Indonesia's B40 mandate, under which companies will have to supply 40pc biodiesel blends from the end of February . Export approvals will be valid for six months from the date of issuance, according to the regulation. Further export policies will be discussed and agreed upon in an upcoming co-ordination meeting between relevant ministries and non-ministerial government institutions which market participants said is likely to be held on 13 or 14 January. The service for applying for export approvals will be temporarily suspended until the meeting is held. During the meeting, a quota system for exports might also be discussed, said Indonesia-based market participants. An integrated team could also be formed to supervise exports, including bodies such as the Co-ordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Trade, Industry, Agriculture, Finance and others. Indonesia-origin UCO prices in flexibag have been on an uptrend since the end of October 2024, rising to over 1½-year highs of $960/t on 20 December, according to Argus' assessments. They were slightly higher at $965/t on 7 January and remained at that level on 8 January. Argus assessed Pome oil fob Indonesia at a 29-month high of $1,010/t on 9 December, although prices have since softened slightly to $960/t on 8 January. Prices were driven up by escalating palm oil prices, and the country raising export levies on UCO and Pome oil to 6pc and 7.5pc of the monthly crude palm oil (CPO) reference price respectively in September last year. More recently, UCO sellers were short on stocks, and rushed to aggregate volumes to fulfill export obligations. Another round of export levy increases is looming, although market participants feel this might not be enough to fund B40 across all transport sectors as well. The country's ministry of energy and mineral resources said on 3 January that biodiesel producers and fuel retailers must supply 15.6mn kilolitres of biodiesel to fulfill the B40 mandate. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

S Korea’s SK Energy supplies first SAF cargo to Europe

06/01/25

S Korea’s SK Energy supplies first SAF cargo to Europe

Singapore, 6 January (Argus) — South Korean refiner SK Energy has exported its first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) cargo to Europe, describing itself as the first refinery in the country to do so. The cargo was exported four months after the refiner started commercial co-processing of SAF, SK Energy said today. SK Energy completed a dedicated SAF production line at its 840,000 b/d Ulsan refinery in September 2024. The refiner has established a production capacity of around 80,000 t/yr of SAF and around 20,000 t/yr of other low-carbon products such as bio-naphtha, using bio-feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats with traditional oil production processes. SK Energy works with its affiliate SK On Trading International to secure waste-based raw material as feedstock. It is one of three South Korean refineries which are producing SAF through co-processing, with the other two being S-Oil and Hyundai Oilbank. A fourth refiner GS Caltex has not announced plans to produce SAF, but is likely studying options including co-processing. It previously supplied around 5,000 kilolitres of SAF to Japan's Narita airport via Japanese trading firm Itochu on 13 September 2024. South Korea plans to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc SAF from 2027 , with a target for the country to capture 30pc of the global blended SAF export market, it announced in August 2024. It remains unclear if co-processed SAF will be allowed to meet the country's mandate, but some South Korean refineries are optimistic. The country also said in August it planned to establish a national standard, certification and testing method for SAF beginning in December 2024, but no updates have surfaced as of 6 January 2025. By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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