Turkish coal plants to widen their cost advantage in 2Q

Spanish Market: Coal
23/02/21

Rising natural gas import costs could extend coal's advantage for thermal power generation in Turkey in the second quarter.

Pipeline import costs for state-owned gas distribution company Botas are set to increase steeply when the next quarterly adjustment is made in April, because of recent strength in oil and oil product prices. They could rise by around $3/MWh to more than $20/MWh, according to Argus calculations, assuming prices for oil and oil products remain flat for the rest of the quarter. This would imply a generation cost of more than $35/MWh for a 55pc-efficient gas-fired unit, assuming Botas reflects the higher import costs in its tariffs for gas utilities, compared with a cost of $34.75/MWh with the current tariff.

Botas does not have any obligations to pass through any increase or decrease in import costs to gas-fired power utilities, but it has rarely offered tariffs below its import costs.

The company this month hiked its regulated tariff for power utilities by 1pc to 1,428.15 lira/'000m³ ($19.11/MWh), despite import costs remaining unchanged in dollar terms at around $17.50/MWh.

Meanwhile, prevailing coal prices do not suggest that coal-fired generation costs will rise in April-June. The API 2 second-quarter contract stood at $63.75/t yesterday, meaning utilities will face an unchanged import cost of around $70/t. Utilities' import costs are topped up to $70/t by a variable tax that is levied on imports when the API 2 is below $70/t. This means that implied generation costs for 40pc-efficient coal-fired plants will remain at around $25/MWh.

Turkish coal-fired utilities are already operating with favourable margins, as reflected in recent strong load factors. The country's 8.9GW fleet of plants that run on imported coal has had a utilisation rate of around 90pc since the beginning of this month.

A widening cost advantage against gas would ensure there will be no cost-driven fuel switching in the next quarter, but coal burn is expected to soften regardless in April-May, when hydropower output usually reaches its annual peak.

Most coal-fired utilities schedule their annual maintenance for April-May, as higher hydropower output weighs on the need for thermal generation. But this year some coal-fired units are expected to come off line for longer than normal, as logistical disruptions caused by Covid-19 prompted some utilities to reduce the extent of maintenance works last year.

Hydro reserves remain at a deficit

Turkish hydropower reserves fell on the year last week, dropping to 36.3pc of capacity from 39pc a year earlier.

But stocks in the Firat-Dicle basin, where most key hydropower units are located, were flat on the year at 35pc.

Aggregate hydropower output in April-June 2020 fell by 6.37TWh on the year to 24.80TWh, while water reserve levels dipped to 57-69pc from 63-78pc. Any potential weakness in hydropower output in the second quarter of this year would increase the call on thermal generation.

By Firat Ergene

Turkey hydropower vs coal-fired generation TWh

Coal vs gas generation costs $/MWh

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22/11/24

Japan’s Taketoyo to resume biomass co-firing in 2027

Tokyo, 22 November (Argus) — Japan's largest electricity producer Jera aims to resume coal and biomass co-firing at the 1.1GW Taketoyo plant in 2027's first quarter, after a fire halted plant operations in January. Jera announced on 22 November that the thermal power plant in central Japan's Aichi prefecture would resume co-firing wood pellets with coal at a rate of 8pc, around the end of the 2026-27 fiscal year ending in March. This will come after its safety measures are completed. The plant's co-firing rate was 17pc before the serious fire, which was caused by an explosion of dust from wood pellets. The company will consider increasing the co-firing rate again in the future, provided safety can be ensured. But the plant will restart coal-only combustion in early January 2025, operating mainly during the summer and winter seasons, when electricity demand is high. Jera will keep operation rates low at Taketoyo and other coal-fired plants when electricity demand is low and rely more on gas-fired generation, to achieve its initial plan to cut CO2 emissions through co-firing at Taketoyo. Taketoyo started co-firing operations in August 2022 and burned around 500,000 t/yr of wood pellets imported from the US and Vietnam. It will burn 200,000 t/yr after it resumes co-firing at 8pc. The plant will slow down the speed of wood pellet conveyors to reduce friction as a part of safety measures, which means it must also reduce its coal and biomass co-firing rate. It is also currently working on other safety measures, such as installing air pressure conveying facilities dedicated to wood pellets and explosion suppressor systems to inject fire extinguishing agents. The outage at Taketoyo has encouraged Jera to boost replacement gas-fired generation, with the extra gas-fired costs accounting for most of the estimated cost resulting from the shutdown, which could be tens of billion yen in the 2024-25 fiscal year ending in March. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Australia backs no new coal power call: Correction

20/11/24

Cop: Australia backs no new coal power call: Correction

Corrects missing word in headline London, 20 November (Argus) — Major coal producers Australia and Colombia, along with the EU and 23 other countries including the UK, have pledged not to allow any new unabated coal-fired power generation in their energy systems at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. This comes a day after Colombia, New Zealand and the UK joined a Netherlands-led international coalition focused on phasing out incentives and subsidies for fossil fuels. Most of the coal pact signatories are members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, under which some countries have committed to phasing out existing unabated coal power generation. Australia is not listed as a member of the alliance, but the cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are. Unsurprisingly, the list of signatories did not include China or India, the two world's largest coal importers. It also does not include the US, although the country is part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance. "There is no space for new unabated coal in a 1.5°C or even 2°C aligned pathway, yet coal capacity rose by 2pc last year," the pact signatories said today. The pledge focuses on coal-fired generation and does not mention the phasing out of exports or imports. Australia, is the world's second-largest seaborne coal exporter. The country is looking to host Cop 31 in 2026 by outbidding Turkey for the spot. But no realistic policy changes in coal exports is expected from Australia, which will have a federal parliamentary election by May 2025 and winning votes from key coal mining regions in New South Wales and Queensland has proven to be crucial in recent elections. Turkey is on track to overtake Germany as Europe's largest coal-fired generator this year and was not among the signatories of today's coal pledge. Amid calls for a faster phase-down of unabated coal-fired power generation, global coal trade is set to reach a record high of more than 1.5bn t this year , surpassing last year's 1.38bn t, according to IEA data. Coal consumption will probably remain resilient, supported by higher electricity demand growth in China and India. China has not set a new climate plan since 2021, but it is expected to ramp up its ambitions in a new plan due by February 2025. India and Indonesia are strongly encouraging higher coal production to ensure energy security. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in September lowered its forecast for US coal-fired generation in this year but raised its expectation for 2025 . By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia advances coal-fired power phase-out to 2040

20/11/24

Indonesia advances coal-fired power phase-out to 2040

London, 20 November (Argus) — Indonesia plans to retire all coal-fired power plants within the next 15 years, advancing an earlier target of 2056, President Prabowo Subianto said today. This follows from Subianto's address at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 19 November, where he emphasised the importance of global collaboration to achieve green energy transition. He also claimed Indonesia is optimistic it can reach net zero emissions before 2050, a decade ahead of its previous commitment. "We plan to build more than 75GW of renewable energy in the next 15 years [to replace coal-fired power]," Subianto added. His claims come at a time when Indonesia's deputy minister of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) Yuliot Tanjung admitted in a speech today that the country's reliance on coal for electricity is still high. Tanjung said the country has huge potential for solar and hydropower generation, owing to its geographical location, but they require technological developments and large investment. Indonesia has the world's fifth-largest operating coal-fired power capacity of 52.31GW, with about 9.81GW more under construction, according to Global Energy Monitor data. Only about 15pc of Indonesia's total installed generation capacity of more than 90GW is currently powered by renewables. New coal-fired projects have continued to be proposed this year, despite the Indonesian government's previous commitment in 2021 to stop building new coal-fired plants after 2023. In addition to power generation, coal is also heavily utilised in Indonesian industry, which contributed to domestic coal production reaching a record 720mn t so far this year. Indonesia could also be on track for a new output record this year, with ESDM expecting 2024 output to surpass 800mn t, up from 775mn t in 2023, if the current output trend continues for the rest of this year. Indonesia and the Philippines are the two most coal-reliant countries in southeast Asia, according to energy think-tank Ember. By Ashima Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China to quit coal baseload power by 2050: Think tank

20/11/24

China to quit coal baseload power by 2050: Think tank

Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — Coal power in China will shift from being a baseload to a backup power source by 2050, according to a government-linked think tank last week. China is expected to move to a cleaner energy system with solar and wind power as its core, displacing coal as the main power source, according to the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 released on 13 November at the Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, a think tank under China's National Development and Reform Commission, was the key contributor to this report. Installed renewable power capacity is projected to account for 95pc of China's potential total capacity of 10,530-11,820GW in 2060, before which China aims to achieve carbon neutrality, according to the report. Renewable sources are expected to generate 93pc of power in 2060. This would be a significant change from the current mix in China. Renewables made up 52pc of total capacity of 2,920GW in 2023, while thermal power capacity was 48pc, according to China's National Energy Administration. Renewable sources and thermal power, which is mainly coal-fired, generated 30pc and 70pc of power respectively in 2023, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. "By 2050, coal power will preliminarily serve as an emergency and backup resource for the grid, providing essential support in critical power events," the report said. Solar and wind Significant growth in solar and wind installations is expected to lead China's energy transition, supported by lower costs. Solar power capacity is projected to reach 6,370-7,240GW in 2060, accounting for two-thirds of total capacity, while wind power capacity could reach 2,950-3,460GW, according to the report. Among the installed solar capacity, 70pc will be distributed systems, which are smaller power generation systems compared to large, utility-scale systems. Costs of solar and wind power generation in China have fallen by 80pc and 60pc respectively over the past decade, the report said. The report elaborated on ways to manage the volatility of renewable sources via various energy storage systems. Solar power output usually increases rapidly during the day with abundant sunlight. When output exceeds the power load, energy is stored in pumped hydro, chemical, hydrogen and electrofuels, electric vehicles and industry demand response storages. These storage systems can then discharge electricity to generate power in the evening when solar output stops, and when wind output is low. New energy storage solutions are expected to support increased electrification in China, which will play a key role in reducing the country's carbon emissions, the report said. Electrification involves replacing technologies or processes that use fossil fuels with electrically-powered equivalents, such as electric vehicles. By Jinhe Tan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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