Tight feedstock supply, higher demand boost Co prices

Spanish Market: Metals
24/02/21

Chinese and European cobalt prices have strengthened this month in response to tight feedstock supplies and expectations of higher long-term demand from the downstream sectors, mainly from power and consumer electronics batteries, according to market participants.

Argus last assessed European prices for cobalt metal at $23.80-24.50/lb for both chemical and alloy grade metal yesterday, up from $15.75-16.50/lb on 5 January, the first assessment of this year. Chinese prices for 99.8pc grade metal were assessed at 350-370 yuan/kg ($54-57/kg) ex-works yesterday, the highest level since December 2018, up from Yn265-280/kg on 5 January.

China's imports of cobalt feedstocks declined in 2020 following a shortage in supplies from uncertainty in main production hubs outside of China during the Covid-19 pandemic. Covid-19 lockdowns in South Africa, which is home to the main export ports of cobalt feedstocks, has tightened supplies since January. The country reported 1.5mn Covid-19 cases as of 23 February.

Prices of cobalt hydroxide increased sharply on a recovery in activity after Chinese buyers retuned to the market after the lunar new year holiday in 11-17 February, with the range assessed higher at $19-21/lb cif China yesterday, up from $12.50-13.20/lb on 5 January.

Demand from the power battery and consumer electronics battery sectors in and outside of China are expected to continue to grow this year, supported by national government's stimulus policies and expansion plans across carmakers.

China's state council has announced a development plan for the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry during 2021-35, targeting a 20pc share of NEVs in the country's total vehicles sales by 2035. Major Chinese carmakers have raised their electric vehicle sales guidance for 2021-25.

Power battery producers have been placing orders to secure sufficient feedstock supplies for the first half of this year on expectations of higher demand for their products. Prices of 20pc grade sulphate led gains in other cobalt salts because of stronger demand, with the latest assessment of Yn90,000-100,000/t ex-works yesterday hitting the highest level since August 2018, up from Yn77,000-81,000/t ex-works on 18 February.

Rising applications in the fifth generation industry (5G), including batteries in base stations and greater use of 5G phones, are forecast to consume a significant amount of cobalt material.

The range for 73pc grade cobalt tetroxide, a main feedstock to make consumer electronics batteries, was assessed at Yn300-320/kg ex-works yesterday, up from Yn280-290/kg ex-works on 18 February.

The uptick in the spot market has also shored up sentiment in the futures market. Prices of cobalt metal exceeded $50,000/t on the London Metal Exchange this week, and is expected to attract further interest from the financial community. February cobalt contracts on China's Wuxi stainless steel exchange closed at Yn399.50/kg today, up from Yn280.50/kg on 4 January.

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29/04/25

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s coking coal imports extend downtrend in March

28/04/25

Japan’s coking coal imports extend downtrend in March

Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — Japan's coking coal imports extended a downtrend in March, reflecting the prolonged downturn in the steel sector, which has weighed on raw material demand. The country imported 2.57mn t of coking coal in March, down by 18pc on the year but up by 5pc from February, according to data from the country's finance ministry. Shipments dropped by 10pc to 8.15mn t in January-March 2025 from a year earlier. Top supplier Australia shipped 19pc less volume from a year earlier at 1.78mn t, and volumes in January-March fell by 18pc from 2024 to 5.59mn t. Arrivals from Canada fell to 192,903t in March, down by over 60pc compared with a year and month earlier, but January-March volumes rose by 11pc on the year to 1.22mn t. Metallurgical coke imports rose by around 30pc on the year and month to 78,729t in March, with volumes in January-March 28pc higher on the year at 255,804t. Crude steel production from basic oxygen furnaces (BOF) rose by 3pc on the year to 5.3mn t. But output could fall in coming months. Japanese steel producer JFE will suspend operations at one of its three BOF in the West Japan Works from around mid-May on the back of lower steel demand in domestic and export markets, the firm announced on 2 April. This is expected to lower annual crude steel output by around 15pc. Meanwhile, the mill will proceed to invest in an electric arc furnace (EAF) facility in western Okayama, which could begin commercial operations in April-June 2028. Other steelmakers such as Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel have also been making the shift from BOF to EAF. The Argus premium low-volatile hard coking coal price fob Australia averaged $174.84/t in March, down by 7pc from February. By Xiuqi Huang Japan's coal imports Origin Mar 25 Mar 24 y-o-y ± % Feb 25 m-o-m ± % Jan-Mar 2025 Jan-Mar 2024 y-o-y ± % Coking coal ('000t) Australia 1,781 2,206 -19 1,522 +17 5,589 6,780 -18 Canada 193 493 -61 554 -65 1,221 1,103 +11 US 297 215 +38 252 +18 743 848 -12 Indonesia 298 230 +29 85 +249 495 329 +50 Colombia 0 0 n/a 25 -100 25 0 n/a Others 0 0 n/a 0 n/a 80 48 +67 Total 2,569 3,144 -18 2,438 +5 8,153 9,109 -10 Met coke (t) China 74,633 57,426 +30 56,445 +32 222,202 188,235 +18 Others 4,096 4,069 +1 3,713 +10 33,602 11,323 +197 Total 78,729 61,495 +28 60,158 +31 255,804 199,558 +28 Source: Japan Finance Ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Lynas cuts Jan-Mar rare earth oxide output

28/04/25

Australia’s Lynas cuts Jan-Mar rare earth oxide output

Sydney, 28 April (Argus) — Australian mineral producer Lynas Rare Earths reduced its rare earth oxide output by 46pc on the year in January-March, because of maintenance and improvement work across multiple plants. Lynas left its total oxide production target for the fiscal year ending 30 June unchanged at 10,500t in its January-March quarterly report on 28 April. The company's improvements should enable it to increase production over April-June, following two quarters of declining output. Lynas produced 1,911t of rare earth oxides, including 1,509t of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, in January-March. The company cut its NdPr oxide production by 12pc on the year over that period, prioritising NdPr oxide over other rare earth oxides ( see table) . NdPr oxide accounted for 79pc of the company's total oxide output in January-March, down from 49pc a year earlier. But Lynas' NdPr oxide share of production may drop in April-June. The company built dysprosium and terbium processing circuits in Malaysia last quarter, and expects to start refining the minerals in May and June, respectively. Lynas' expansion into dysprosium and terbium production comes as Chinese manufacturers — the largest exporters of dysprosium and terbium — weigh the impact of recent rare earth export controls, with some firms limiting offers . Lynas produces oxides in Malaysia using rare earths mined and initially processed in Western Australia (WA). The company spent the January-March quarter doing kiln maintenance work in Malaysia and improving its WA processing methods. Its Malaysian work finished during the quarter and its WA improvements are ongoing, the company said on 28 April. Lynas chemically treated rare earth carbonates from its WA plant before converting them to oxides in October-December, because of sulphate impurities, slowing production over the quarter. Its WA process changes are meant to prevent that from happening again. Lynas continued work on a Texas rare earth plant in January-March. The company is in talks with the US government over funding support for the project, the company said on 28 April. Recent US tariffs and water treatment issues could increase its Texas project costs, it added. The first Trump administration backed Lynas' US project in 2019, invoking the Defence Production Act to fund marketing, engineering, and design work. Argus ' praseodymium-neodymium oxide min 99pc fob China price has been quite volatile over the past three months. The price was last assessed at $56,000/t on 25 April, down from $62,250/t on 24 February and $57,150/t on 27 January. By Avinash Govind Lynas Oxide Production Jan-Mar '25 Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '24 Jul-Mar '25 Jul-Mar '24 y-o-y Change (%) YTD Change (%) Rare earth oxide (total) | t 1,911 3,545 2,617 7,250 8,720 -46 -17 NdPr oxide | t 1,509 1,724 1,292 4,478 4,151 -12 7.9 NdPr oxide share | % 79 49 49 62 48 62 30 Lynas Rare Earths Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Usiminas steel price outlook murky

24/04/25

Brazil's Usiminas steel price outlook murky

Sao Paulo, 24 April (Argus) — Brazilian steel producer Usiminas' outlook for prices was mixed as steel output rose in the latest quarter. Usiminas commercial vice-president Miguel Homes said that pressure from imports and the Brazilian real's recent appreciation to the US dollar may force the producer to adjust spot prices in the future. At the same time, the company expects prices to remain flat in the coming quarter, according to its quarterly earnings release. Usiminas confirmed a 3pc price increase for automotive manufacturer contracts in April, which could signal an opportunity for a price reduction in light of the real's appreciation. The real has appreciated by 12.5pc to the US dollar year-to-date, slashing feedstock costs for Usiminas but also pressuring its domestic price levels. Brazilian mills have been unable to raise prices because of strong import flows, which increased 30pc in the first quarter, reaching 1.7mn metric tonnes (t). Usiminas sales rose to 1mn t in the first quarter, up by 9pc from the same period a year earlier. The company expects its sales volumes to be stable in the coming months. It also boosted crude steel output to 773,000t in the first quarter, 10pc above a year prior. Rolled-steel production remained flat at 1mn t. The company exported over 90,000t of steel in the first quarter. Argentina's automotive and oil and gas pipeline industries accounted for 81pc of Usiminas'steel exports , Usiminas said. Iron ore production reached 2.1mn t in the first quarter, up by 12pc from a year earlier. The company sold 2.2mn t of iron ore, marking 13pc growth from a year before. Exports accounted for 75pc of first quarter sales and profits in the period soared by over ninefold to R337mn ($65mn). By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Freeport expects tariffs to increase costs 5pc

24/04/25

Freeport expects tariffs to increase costs 5pc

Houston, 24 April (Argus) — US-based copper producer Freeport-McMoRan expects tariffs to increase the costs of goods needed for operations by 5pc, as suppliers will likely pass on tariff-related costs. The 145pc tariffs imposed by the US on China on 10 April will likely have the largest influence on the estimated 5pc increase, according to Freeport-McMoRan chief executive officer Kathleen Quirk. Approximately 40pc of the company's US costs will not be subject to tariffs, as they relate to labor and services. Copper is currently exempt from tariffs after President Donald Trump signed an executive order on 25 February launching a Section 232 investigation into the effect of copper imports on US national and economic security. Freeport said that its first quarter copper sales volumes of 872mn lbs exceeded its earlier estimate of 850mn lbs. But copper sales revenue decreased to $872mn this quarter from $1.1bn the first quarter of 2024. Copper production and sales were pressured in the quarter by shut operations at its Manyar smelter in Indonesia following a fire in October . The company expects start-up activities to begin at the smelter in the second quarter and return to full operations by the end of 2025. The company's molybdenum first quarter sales remained the same as 2024 first quarter's at $20mn. Freeport's net income for the first quarter was $352mn, a decrease from $473mn in the first quarter of 2024. By Reagan Patrowicz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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