Chinese sandstorm may boost coal consumption

Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity
18/03/21

China's worst sandstorm in a decade is threatening its renewable energy output, which will likely boost coal consumption even as the traditional April-May lull for heating demand approaches.

At least 12 provinces in north China have been affected since the start of this week. The sandstorm has disrupted China's solar and wind power generation in these regions, which will likely push utilities towards thermal coal, market participants said. Utilities may have factored in the impact of sandstorms that are typical around this time of the year, but the intensity and uncertainty of duration this time may have caught some off-guard.

Wind power has been an increasingly critical component in China's renewable energy mix. The country produced 7,417 TWh of electricity in 2020, an increase of 2.7pc on the year. Wind power accounted for 414.6 TWh, an increase of 10.5pc on the year, according to data from the national bureau of statistics (NBS). But the increase in wind power during January-February gained pace, rising by 49pc on the year, significantly higher than all other electricity sources, latest NBS data show.

Solar power has also gained prominence as a renewable energy source. China produced 12.55 TWh of electricity from solar sources in 2020, an increase of 14.3pc on the year, according to NBS data. January-February solar output rose by 25.8pc on the year. The NBS typically lumps January and February data together because of industrial disruptions during the lunar new year holiday.

The sandstorm is also having a limited impact in disrupting China's coal output. Over 70pc of China's coal is produced in the three northern provinces of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi, all of which are affected by the storm. Most coal mines are operating as usual, but coal logistics have been hampered by visibility restrictions on roads. Some producers may be planning to cut production to avert any potential price declines as stockpiles at mine mouths have increased because of fewer trucks collecting coal, market participants said.

Prices high despite impending lull period

China is heading into the traditional lull for domestic coal consumption that starts in April, when heating demand typically slumps with the onset of milder temperatures. But domestic spot prices remain relatively high compared with the same time last year, supported by a multitude of factors including the weaker outlook for renewable energy. Chinese NAR 5,500 kcal/kg was last assessed by Argus at 628.08 yuan/t ($96.86/t) fob Qinhuangdao port on 12 March with some cargoes trading yesterday at Yn635/t fob north China ports, compared with Yn559.33/t ($79.88/t) on 13 March last year.

Scheduled maintenance on the critical coal-transporting Daqin railway during 6-30 April will also curtail available supplies, supporting the market in April. A recent increase in cement prices in many parts of south China suggests that the coal-consuming cement manufacturing sector in these regions is rebounding, which will also support industrial demand for thermal coal.

April-May is typically a time when Chinese coal importers stock up on seaborne cargoes loading in May-June to meet air conditioning demand during the summer.

But summer restocking this year could take a different direction due to a surge in international dry bulk freight costs since February on strong Chinese demand for grain shipments. This has significantly narrowed the arbitrage opportunity for seaborne coal sold to China and there is also uncertainty over how long the surge in freight rates will persist. This means that Chinese utilities will have to plan their summer restocking around domestic supply, which could support spot prices, unless freight rates ease soon.

Summer restocking centered on domestic stocks will mean that China's domestic supplies will be below previous years heading into the winter restocking season during the third quarter of the year. This could pressure Beijing into importing more coal later this year to avert the coal shortages it experienced in late 2020 when domestic supplies were low at a time when heating demand surged.

By Kelvin Leong

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28/11/24

LNG use poses risk to Cambodia's energy security: IEEFA

Singapore, 28 November (Argus) — Cambodia's increasing reliance on LNG for power generation could be detrimental to its energy security because of instability in LNG markets, according to Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). Rapid economic growth and electrification have led to Cambodia's electricity demand growing by 16pc/yr since 2009, according to IEEFA's report released on 26 November. Its power generation is mostly from hydropower and coal, but the country aims to boost its gas-fired power generation to meet its decarbonisation targets. Cambodia has a net zero by 2050 goal, and aims to reach 70pc renewable energy generation by 2030. The share of coal in Cambodia's power mix was 45pc in 2023, with hydropower representing 44pc, solar 5pc and imports from neighbouring countries making up the remaining 6pc. The country in 2021 declared that it would not build new coal plants beyond those already approved. Natural gas had not played a role in the country's power mix until recently, but "optimism has grown in recent years regarding the ability of new LNG-to-power projects to help the country meet rising electricity demand," stated the report. Gas operator Cambodian Natural Gas imported the country's first LNG shipment in 2020 from China's state-owned firm CNOOC, according to IEEFA. The firm also planned to complete a 1,200MW LNG-fired power plant and a 3mn t/yr import terminal by 2023, although there has been no progress as of June this year. Cambodian officials in November 2023 announced the cancellation of a 700MW coal project, which will be replaced with a 800MW gas-fired power plant instead. Cambodia is seeking to build these large LNG-fired power plants because of concerns over the intermittency of renewables such as wind and power, and LNG is viewed as a suitable transition fuel for grid reliability. The government expects LNG-fired capacity to reach 900MW by 2040, which would require roughly 840,000 t/yr of imports. When considering long-term wholesale prices of $8-16/mn Btu, Cambodia's LNG import bill could range between $361mn-722mn/yr, according to IEEFA. Some forecasts estimate that Cambodia's LNG-fired capacity could rise to as much as 2,700MW by 2040 and 8,700MW by 2050, stated the report. This would entail import requirements of 2.53mn t/yr in 2040 and 8.14mn t/yr in 2050. The fuel import costs for 2,700MW of LNG-fired capacity could amount to $1.08bn-2.17bn. LNG volatility LNG markets have been volatile over the past two years, because of factors such as geopolitical tensions and outages at supply facilities. Other emerging Asian economies such as Pakistan and Bangladesh faced fuel and power shortages because they have been unable to secure affordable LNG supplies, and this "demonstrates the evident risks of LNG importation for developing countries," states the report. Cambodia already has one of the highest electricity tariffs in Asia at $0.16/kWh, so higher LNG prices could require higher tariffs. LNG prices in Asia have been roughly $14/mn Btu and would have to fall below $5mn/mn Btu to compete with other electricity sources, according to IEEFA, but these low price levels are rare. The ANEA price, the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia for the front-half month, stood at $15.08/mn Btu on 27 November. Cambodia's LNG demand and LNG-fired power plant expansions remain uncertain, so long-term offtake commitments will be challenging and the country will likely have to initially source cargoes from the sport market, according to the report. But the spot market poses risks in terms of supply security and price stability. Establishing an LNG supply chain also entails rigid long-term contracts that lock in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia on track for 2030 GHG emissions target

27/11/24

Australia on track for 2030 GHG emissions target

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australia is on track to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 42.6pc by 2030 from 2005 levels, nearly within the country's 43pc target, climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen announced today. The forecast is based on the baseline scenario from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW)'s emissions projections 2024 report, which will be released on 28 November, according to Bowen. It compares to a 37pc reduction estimated in the 2023 report under the baseline scenario and is slightly above the previous report's 42pc projection under a scenario "with additional measures", as those policies have now been incorporated into the baseline assumptions. The inaugural emissions projections report, published at the end of 2022 , showed forecast reductions of 32pc in the baseline scenario and 40pc in the additional measures scenario. The main policies incorporated are the expanded Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the fuel efficiency standards for new passenger and light commercial vehicles, Bowen said. Under the CIS, Australia will support 32GW of new capacity consisting of 23GW of renewable capacity such as solar, wind and hydro, as well as 9GW of dispatchable capacity such as pumped hydro and grid-scale batteries. Tenders will run every six months until 2026-27 and winners will need to start operating their assets by 2030, in time to help the Labor government meet its target of sourcing 82pc of electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Bowen last month announced tender volumes would be accelerated on the back of strong interest in the initial 6GW tender in May. NEM review The government separately announced the start of a review of the National Electricity Market (NEM) wholesale market settings, which will need to be changed following the conclusion of the CIS tenders in 2027 and as Australia transitions to more renewables from its aging coal-fired plants. The tenders will give up to 15 years of support, but new settings will be needed to promote investment in firmed renewable generation and storage capacity into the 2030s and beyond, especially as the Renewable Energy Target scheme will come to an end on 31 December 2030 . An expert independent panel will carry out widespread consultation and make final recommendations to energy and climate ministers in late 2025. The panel will need to consider the importance of decarbonising Australia's electricity system to achieve the 43pc emissions reduction target by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050, according to the government. But the panel "will not consider" options that involve implementation of carbon trading schemes or carbon markets, or that entail governments supporting new fossil fuel generation, it added. The federal government will need to co-ordinate and introduce a "clear and enduring" carbon signal in the energy sector to adapt the 25-year-old NEM to a "post-coal era" , domestic think-tank Grattan Institute said earlier this year. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

27/11/24

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expects the country to experience 11 tropical storms over the next few months, threatening the country's mineral-rich Pilbara region and coal infrastructure in Queensland. The number of storms is in line with historical averages, but BOM warns that rising ocean temperatures could increase their severity. The state weather agency believes that four of these storms will make landfall from late December, and that a La Nina event could start later this year, although it may not last very long. La Nina events are associated with high levels of cyclonic activity. BOM's forecasts suggest that five of the storms are likely to form around Western Australia's mineral-rich Pilbara region, which houses more than 40 operating iron ore mines and two lithium mines. Over the last three months, sea surface temperatures around Pilbara have exceeded historical averages by 1.2–2°C, warming more than in any of the country's other cyclone-prone regions. On the other side of the country, four tropical storms could form around Queensland's cattle and coking coal producing regions, although these are likely to be less severe than the Pilbara storms. Temperatures across most of Queensland are forecast to exceed historical averages by 0.4–1.2°C in October-December. Cyclonic weather in Pilbara could disrupt iron shipping and mining activity in the region. Australia's three largest iron export ports sit along the region's coast. In 2019, Cyclone Veronica forced the closure of Pilbara's three major ports and multiple mines operated by mining company Rio Tinto, prompting the firm to cut its production forecasts for the year. Harsh storms in Queensland have previously damaged vital coal transport links in the state, hampering exports. In 2017, Cyclone Debbie damaged rail lines linking coal mines to the ports of Gladstone, Hay Point, Dalrymple Bay, and Abbott Point, which handle most of the state's coking coal exports. More recently, severe weather also halted deliveries to Mackay port . Queensland and Pilbara are also home to major LNG terminals at Dampier and Gladstone ports that sit within cyclone-prone zones. The two terminals together export over 3mn t/month of LNG . By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

25/11/24

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

Montevideo, 25 November (Argus) — The left-wing opposition Frente Amplio will return to power in Uruguay after winning a hard-fought run-off election on 24 November. Yamandu Orsi, former mayor of the Canalones department, was elected president with close to 51pc of valid votes. He defeated Alvaro Delgado, of the ruling Partido Nacional. The Frente will control the senate, but will have a minority in the lower chamber. It last governed from 2015-2020. Orsi will take office on 1 March in one of Latin America's most stable economies, with the World Bank forecasting growth at 3.2pc for this year, much higher than the 1.9pc regional average. He will also inherit a country that has been making strides to implement a second energy transition geared toward continued decarbonization and new technologies, such as SAF and low-carbon hydrogen. He will also have to decide on future oil and natural gas exploration. Uruguay does not produce oil or gas, but has hopes that its offshore mimics that of Nambia, because of similar geology. TotalEnergies has made a major find there. The Frente's government plan states that it "will deepen the energy transition, focusing on the use of renewable energy, and decarbonization of the economy and transportation … gradually regulating so that public and cargo transportation can operate with hydrogen." On to hydrogen Uruguay is already the regional leader with renewable energy, with renewables covering 100pc of power demand on 24 November, according to the state-run power company, UTE. Wind accounted for 49pc, hydro 35pc, biomass 10pc and solar 6pc. Orsi will need to make decisions regarding high-profile projects for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a push by the state-run Ancap to get private companies to ramp up oil and gas exploration on seven offshore blocks. The industry, energy and mining ministry lists four planned low-carbon hydrogen projects, including one between Chile's HIF and Ancap subsidiary Alur that would have a 1GW electrolyzer. Germany's Enertrag is working on an e-methanol project with a 150MW electrolyzer, while two Uruguayan groups are working on small projects with 2MW and 5MW electrolyzers, respectively. The Orsi government will also need to decide if it continues with Ancap's planned bidding process for four offshore blocks, each between 600-800km² (232-309 mi²), to generate up to 3.2GW of wind power to produce 200,000 t/yr of green hydrogen on floating platforms. The Frente has been noncommittal about the future of seven offshore oil and gas blocks, including three held by Shell, two by the UK's Challenger — which recently farmed in Chevron — and one each by Argentina's state-owned YPF and US-based APA Corporation. The Frente's government plan states that "a national dialogue will be called to analyze the impacts and alternatives to exploration and extraction of fossil fuels." By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

22/11/24

Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

Developing countries' discontent over the climate finance offer is meeting a muted response, writes Caroline Varin Baku, 22 November (Argus) — As the UN Cop 29 climate conference went into overtime, early reactions of consternation towards a new climate finance draft quickly gave way to studious silence, and some new numbers floated by developing nations. Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal — or climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The updated draft of the new finance goal text — the centrepiece of this Cop — proposes a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". This is the developed country parties' submission, the Cop 29 presidency acknowledged. Developing nations have been waiting for this number for months, and calling on developed economies to come up with one throughout this summit. They rejected the offer instantly. "The [$250bn/yr] offered by developed countries is a spit in the face of vulnerable nations like mine," Panama's lead climate negotiator, Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, said. Negotiating group the Alliance of Small Island States called it "a cap that will severely stagnate climate action efforts". The African Group of Negotiators and Colombia called it "unacceptable". This is far off the mark for developing economies, which earlier this week floated numbers of $440bn-600bn/yr for a public finance layer. They also called for $1.3 trillion/yr in total climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. China reiterated on 21 November that "the voluntary support" of the global south was not to be counted towards the goal. A UN-mandated expert group indicated that the figure put forward by developed countries "is too low" and not consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. The new finance goal for developing countries, based on components that it covers, should commit developed countries to provide at least $300bn/yr by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035, it said. Brazil indicated that it is now pushing for these targets. The final amount for the new finance goal could potentially be around $300bn-350bn/yr, a Somalian delegate told Argus . A goal of $300bn/yr by 2035 is achievable with projected finance, further reforms and shareholder support at multilateral development banks (MDBs), and some growth in bilateral funding, climate think-tank WRI's finance programme director, Melanie Robinson, said. "Going beyond [$300bn/yr] would even be possible if a high proportion of developing countries' share of MDB finance is included," she added. All eyes turn to the EU Unsurprisingly, developed nations offered more muted responses. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior goal [of $100bn/yr]," a senior US official said, and the new goal will require even more ambition and "extraordinary reach". The US has just achieved its target to provide $11bn/yr in climate finance under the Paris climate agreement by 2024. But US climate funding is likely to dry up once president-elect Donald Trump, a climate sceptic who withdrew the US from the Paris accord during his first term, takes office. Norway simply told Argus that the delegation was "happier" with the text. The EU has stayed silent, with all eyes on the bloc as the US' influence wanes. The EU contributed €28.6bn ($29.8bn) in climate finance from public budgets in 2023. Developed nations expressed frustration towards the lack of progress on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Mentions of fossil fuels have been removed from new draft texts, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels. This could still represent a potential red line for them. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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