28/04/25
China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March
China's NP/NPS exports hit record high in January-March
Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — China's NP/NPS exports jumped by more than
eightfold to an all-time high of about 614,000t over January-March, latest trade
data show, as it is a more affordable alternative to DAP/MAP, given tighter
phosphate export availability and higher fertilizer prices globally. This was
largely driven by record-high shipments to Brazil and India in the first
quarter, both of which did not receive any NP/NPS exports a year earlier.
Shipments to Brazil and India reached 315,000t and 94,000t respectively in
January-March. China exported more formulas, including NP 8-40-0, to Brazil so
far this year as a lower-priced alternative to MAP, given higher fertilizer
prices in Brazil. Indian importers are also seeking more NPKs and NPS, such as
20-20-0+13S, because of a lack of DAP fertilizer supply out of China. Such
imports into India also allow the importer to maintain a positive margin under
the current subsidy and maximum retail price, as compared to importing DAP.
China's NPK exports over January-March also nearly tripled from a year earlier
to 169,000t, which is also a four-year high, largely driven by an eightfold
increase in shipments to the Philippines, its largest importer at about 63,000t.
Favourable weather conditions this year led to more local rice production,
according to the Philippines' Department of Agriculture, likely contributing to
an increase in demand for complex fertilizers. The El Niño phenomenon hit the
Philippines in the first quarter of 2024, when prolonged periods of dry spells
damaged about 780,000 hectares of crops across 271,000t of agricultural land,
which likely affected fertilizer demand and affordability last year. Lower
prices of 16-20 from China in the first quarter compared to a year earlier,
according to Argus , also likely boosted affordability levels. Some Chinese DAP
producers have switched their production line to producing NP/NPS to cater to
the growing demand from overseas buyers, alongside the end of the domestic
spring season and slowing domestic demand for DAP. The lack of clarity on
DAP/MAP exports also supported Chinese phosphate producers in pivoting to more
NP/NPS exports . Exports availability of phosphates may reduce shipments of
NP/NPS in favour of DAP/MAP. Suppliers are also expecting more demand from
Brazil this year, according to market participants, as China is likely to import
more soybeans from Brazil in light of recent tariffs imposed on US imports. Firm
DAP prices in India are also likely to continue pushing Indian importers to buy
more NP/NPS. Importers in India have cancelled at least three sales of DAP above
$690/t cfr from Russia and Tunisia. But there was no confirmation of the
cancellations from the suppliers. By Camila Tay China NP/NPS exports 2024 (t)
Brazil India Australia Vietnam Others Total January 60,600 26,500 38,196 16,219
10,514 152,029 February 129,553 0 12,520 13,993 68,689 224,755 March 124,680
67,900 0 15,481 29,524 237,585 Total 314,833 94,400 50,716 45,693 108,727
614,369 Source: GTT China NPK exports 2024 (t) Philippines Myanmar Laos
Australia Others Total January 24,064 8,654 8,977 832 23,449 65,976 February
3,168 12,080 2,628 286 18,916 37,078 March 35,640 10,744 2,009 15,481 2,315
66,189 Total 62,872 31,478 13,614 16,599 44,680 169,243 Source: GTT Send
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