Cliffs Middletown EAF hinges on EV growth

Spanish Market: Metals
22/04/22

Integrated steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs will build a new electrical steel-oriented electric arc furnace (EAF) at its Middletown, Ohio, integrated mill if US electrical vehicle (EV) production materializes.

Chief executive Lourenco Goncalves said his company is producing electrical steel at maximum capacity, and that a future EAF at Middletown would be built to meet growing EV motor demand.

"Let's see how many of my clients will be really doing what they are saying they are going to do with electric vehicles," Goncalves said in an earnings call. "If they are very successful, all of them, and we need a lot more non-oriented electrical steels to supply the engines of electric vehicles, then the electric arc furnace will materialize."

Cleveland-Cliffs filed an air permit for a new EAF at its Middletown mill in early April.

US EV production capacity is expected to surpass 2mn vehicles annually by 2025 and approach 3mn annually by 2028. The US produced nearly 1mn full EVs in 2021, according to automakers. Legacy US automakers all plan to shift production to EVs, with General Motors to be 100pc EV by 2035 and Ford eying 50pc EV by 2030.

Cleveland-Cliffs and integrated competitor US Steel are the two US steelmakers who are able to melt and produce electrical steel grades, which are used in EV motors.

If electrical vehicle production begins to meet expectations "we are going to be the first ones to jump in," Goncalves said.

For 2022, the steelmaker increased its price expectations by $200/short ton to $1,445/st on higher fixed price contracts, higher steel futures levels, and widening spreads between hot rolled coil (HRC) and cold rolled coil (CRC). The Argus US HRC Midwest ex-works assessment has been flat at $1,500/st for three weeks, and CRC has a $400/st premium to HRC.

Cleveland-Cliffs' automotive sales volumes in the first quarter rose by 200,000st from the fourth quarter, marking the best quarter of automotive shipments since the beginning of semiconductor shortages in early 2021. The company expects sales volumes to continue to increase on a quarterly basis.

Cleveland-Cliffs' steel product sales totaled 3.64mn st in the first quarter, down by 12pc from a year earlier. Of that amount, 34pc was hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) coil, a quarter was HRC, 18pc was CRC and 6pc was plate. The remainder was stainless and electrical, slabs and rail products.

The average selling price jumped to $1,446/st, up by 61pc from a year earlier.

Cleveland-Cliffs boost its first-quarter profit to $801mn from $41mn a year earlier.

By Rye Druzin

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

05/11/24

Boeing workers approve contract, end strike: Update

Includes additional contract details in 3rd and 4th grafs, and background on Boeing. Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Union-backed machinists approved a new labor contract with aircraft manufacturer Boeing, ending a seven-week work stoppage that halted production of major jet programs and disrupted aerospace supply chains. More than 32,000 factory workers represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAMAW) voted by 59pc to ratify the deal, the local union said late Monday. Employees secured a general wage increase (GWI) of 38pc spread out over the contract's four-year life, a one-time $12,000 ratification bonus and greater 401(k) contributions, among other retirement and health care benefits. The pay raise — a sticking point in prior rounds of negotiations — improved upon Boeing's first two offers of 25pc and 35pc but fell short of the 40pc sought by workers. Still, the union touted that the GWI in the new contract amounts to 43.65pc when compounded. Boeing chief executive Kelly Ortberg acknowledged the past few months "have been difficult" in expressing his appreciation that both sides were able to come to terms. Workers began their strike on 13 September, effectively shutting down Boeing's final assembly lines in Renton and Everett, Washington, where the company produces its flagship 737 MAX aircraft, along with its 767 and 777 programs. That stoppage further exacerbated issues within Boeing's operations that have been under heightened scrutiny since January, when a midair panel blowout led to a mandated production cap on the 737 MAX. Additionally, parts shortages and other supply chain challenges have constrained output of the company's main widebody program, the 787 Dreamliner, this year. The strike itself compelled Boeing to initiate cost-cutting measures with the production halt weighing on its finances . The company on 11 October announced it would lay off 10pc of its total workforce, while confirming on 23 October that it had stopped shipments from certain suppliers to conserve cash. The latest estimate from Anderson Economic Group, which does not account for last week, puts Boeing's losses at $5.5bn and its suppliers' losses at $2.3bn because of the work stoppage. All workers must return to their positions by 12 November but can return as early as Wednesday, the union said. Still, Boeing cautioned that it would take time for operations to stabilize, saying it would have to retrain and recertify employees who did not "get enough time on an airplane" before they went on strike. The company also will have to contend with a supply chain that it "turned off in many cases" because of the work stoppage. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Boeing workers approve contract, end strike

05/11/24

Boeing workers approve contract, end strike

Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Union-backed machinists approved a new labor contract with aircraft manufacturer Boeing, ending a seven-week strike that halted production of major jet programs and disrupted aerospace supply chains. More than 32,000 factory workers represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers voted by 59pc to ratify the deal, the local union said late Monday. Employees secured a general wage increase of 38pc spread out over four years and a $12,000 ratification bonus, along with other retirement and health care benefits. All workers must return to their positions by 12 November but can return as early as Wednesday, the union said. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

04/11/24

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

Washington, 4 November (Argus) — Negotiations to amend US rail labor contracts are becoming increasingly complicated as railroads split on negotiating tactics, potentially stalling operations at some carriers. The multiple negotiating pathways are reigniting fears of 2022, when some unions agreed to new contracts and others were on the verge of striking before President Joe Biden ordered them back to work . Shippers feared freight delays if strikes occurred. This round, two railroads are independently negotiating with unions. Most of the Class I railroads have traditionally used the National Carriers' Conference Committee to jointly negotiate contracts with the nation's largest labor unions. Eastern railroad CSX has already reached agreements with labor unions representing 17 job categories, which combined represent nearly 60pc of its unionized workforce. "This is the right approach for CSX," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said last month. Getting the national agreements on wages and benefits done will then let CSX work with employees on efficiency, safety and other issues, he said. Western carrier Union Pacific is taking a similar path. "We look forward to negotiating a deal that improves operating efficiency, helps provide the service we sold to our customers" and enables the railroad to thrive, it said. Some talks may be tough. The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) and Union Pacific are in court over their most recent agreement. But BLET is meeting with Union Pacific chief executive Jim Vena next week, and with CSX officials the following week. Traditional group negotiation is also proceeding. BNSF, Norfolk Southern and the US arm of Canadian National last week initiated talks under the National Carriers' Conference Committee to amend existing contracts with 12 unions. Under the Railway Labor Act, rail labor contracts do not expire, a regulation designed to keep freight moving. But if railroads and unions again go months without reaching agreements, freight movements will again be at risk. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US light vehicle sales hit 6-month high in Oct

04/11/24

US light vehicle sales hit 6-month high in Oct

Houston, 4 November (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles climbed in October, rising to a seasonally adjusted rate of 16mn on the back of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — increased from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.8mn in September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Last month's rate was the highest since 16.1mn in April and greater than the 15.3mn unit rate in October 2023. US consumers, boosted by solid hiring and salary gains, stepped up purchases as borrowing costs have started to come down in the wake of the Federal Reserve's half point cut in its target rate in September, the first cut since Covid-19 struck in early 2020. With inflation nearing the central bank's 2pc target, the Fed has signaled another 200 basis points of rate cuts are likely into 2026. Sales of light truck sales increased by 1.6pc to just under a 13mn unit rate in October, while sales of cars rose by 2.2pc to a 3.1mn unit rate in the same timeframe. Domestic auto production rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 123,900 in September from 121,500 in August. That compared with 143,400 in September 2023. Auto assemblies are reported with a one-month lag to sales. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook dims in October survey

04/11/24

Mexico GDP outlook dims in October survey

Mexico City, 4 November (Argus) — Private-sector analysts have again lowered their projections for Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year, with minimal changes in inflation expectations, the central bank said. For a seventh consecutive month, median GDP growth forecasts for 2024 have dropped in the central bank's monthly survey of private sector analysts. In the latest survey conducted in late October, analysts revised the full-year 2024 growth estimate to 1.4pc, down from 1.46pc the previous month. The 2025 forecast also dipped slightly, to 1.17pc from 1.2pc. The latest revisions are relatively minor compared to the slides recorded in preceding surveys, suggesting negativity in the outlook for Mexico's economy may be moderating. This aligns with the national statistics agency Inegi's preliminary report of 1.5pc annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, surpassing the 1.3pc consensus forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inflation projections for the end of 2024 inched down to an annualized 4.44pc from 4.45pc, while 2025 estimate held unchanged at 3.8pc. September saw a second consecutive month of declining inflation, with the CPI falling to 4.58pc in September from 4.99pc in August. The survey maintained the year-end forecast for the central bank's target interest rate at 10pc, down from the current 10.5pc. This implies analysts expect two 25-basis-point cuts to the target rate, most likely at the next meetings on 14 November and 19 December. The 2025 target rate forecast held steady at 8pc, with analysts anticipating continued rate reductions into next year. The outlook for the peso remains subdued, following political shifts in June's elections that reduced opposition to the ruling Morena party. The median year-end exchange rate forecast weakened to Ps19.8 to the US dollar from Ps19.66/$1 in the previous survey. The peso was trading weaker at Ps20.4/$1 on Monday, reflecting temporary uncertainty tied to the US election. Analysts remain wary of Mexico's political environment, especially after Morena and its allies pushed through controversial constitutional reforms in recent months. In the survey, 55pc of analysts cited governance issues as the primary obstacle to growth, with 19pc pointing to political uncertainty, 16pc to security concerns and 13pc to deficiencies in the rule of law. By James Young Mexican central bank monthly survey Column header left October September Headline inflation (%) 2024 4.45 4.44 2025 3.80 3.80 GDP growth (%) 2024 1.40 1.46 2025 1.17 1.20 MXN/USD exchange rate* 2024 19.80 19.66 2025 20.00 19.81 Banxico reference rate (%) 2024 10.00 10.00 2025 8.00 8.00 Survey results are median estimates of private sector analysts surveyed by Banco de Mexico from 17-30 October. *Exchange rates are forecast for the end of respective year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more