US steel mill outages unlikely to shift market

Spanish Market: Coking coal, Metals
17/08/22

Steel mill outages through the remainder of the year will take out nearly 600,000 short tons (st) of flat-rolled production, but few believe that will alleviate persistent oversupply.

The outages, mainly for maintenance, will run from September through November, according to current plans by US-based steelmakers and market participants. That would average out to approximately 6,450st/day across the three months based on the mills' rated capacity.

Still, the flat-rolled outages are expected to have minimal volume impacts on the markets, sources said, pointing to persistent oversupply and the multiple flat-rolled steel mills that are ramping up in the back half of the year. Combined, those mill additions, when ramped up fully, will add 18,700st/day of rated capacity to the market, far outstripping the supply taken out of the market.

For the week ending 13 August daily production in the entire US steel market which includes flat, long, plate, and other steel mills was 248,900st, with capacity utilization rates at 79pc, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute.

Since mid-April when the Argus weekly domestic US hot-rolled coil (HRC) Midwest and southern ex-works assessments peaked at $1,500/st, prices have fallen by 46pc to $812.25/st. HRC prices are down by 49pc since the beginning of the year.

Prices have fallen as service centers have held off buying in the face of weak demand from consumers, who have been hit by shortages of labor and parts. Fears that the US is either already in or on the brink of a recession have also prompted some pull-back in purchases.

Many have been disappointed by the lack of semi-permanent or permanent idling of flat-rolled steelmaking capacity in a more sustained manner to prop up prices. This includes some service centers, typically buyers of steel, as falling flat-rolled prices have devalued their existing inventories. The lack of such closures and a recent decline of $70/gross ton (gt) for #1 busheling scrap, a key steelmaking raw material input, have led many to doubt that US steel prices have much room to recover. A recent $50/st flat-rolled steel price increase by electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaker Nucor appears to have fallen flat for now. The price increase, announced on 8 August, has not drawn buyers at those prices.

In past markets, when flat-rolled prices were at lower levels, integrated steelmakers were seen as the high-cost producers and were expected to bear the brunt of production curtailments.

Now, with raw material inputs like #1 busheling scrap and pig iron at higher levels, some think EAF steelmakers may be the high cost producers needing to cut production instead. Integrated steelmakers are thought to currently have some cost advantages through the control of the majority of their input costs from iron ore mines to steel finishing facilities and even maintain the option to buy as much as 30pc of their melts as scrap should prices decline.

By Rye Druzin

Steel mill outages September through November				st
Company w/outage	Location	Duration	Month	Volume

NLMK	Portage, PA	20	Oct	46,500
North Star BlueScope	Delta, OH	5	Nov	44,500
SDI	Butler, IN	4	Oct	35,100
SDI	Columbus, MS	4	Nov	35,100
USS - Big River Steel	Osceola, AR	7	Oct	60,000
USS - Mon Valley	Pittsburgh, PA	21	Sept	80,500
Nucor - Berkeley	Huger, SC	9	Sept	80,300
Nucor - Crawfordsville	Crawfordsville, IN	15	Sept	104,400
Nucor - Decatur	Decatur, AL	11	Sept	75,300
Nucor - Hickman	Hickman, AR	5	Sept	37,000
Total volume over outages				598,700
Daily rate for 3 months				6,579
— Company releases, market, AIST data

Steel mill capacity additions				st
Company	Location	Yearly production	Startup timeframe	Daily production rate

Cleveland-Cliffs	Cleveland, OH	1,500,000	Aug 22	4,110
Nucor	Ghent, KY	1,400,000	4Q 2022	3,836
Steel Dynamics	Sinton, TX	3,000,000	3Q/4Q 2022	8,219
North Star BlueScope	Delta, OH	936,000	2H 2022	2,564
Total		6,836,000		18,729
— Company releases

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29/04/25

Australia’s Fortescue lifts iron ore sales in Jan-Mar

Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — Australian metal producer Fortescue shipped 46mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) of iron ore on a 100pc basis in January-March, up by 6.5pc on the year, despite facing weather challenges. Fortescue left its export guidance for the 2025 financial year ending 30 June unchanged at 190mn-200mn wmt of ore, including 5mn-9mn wmt of magnetite concentrate from its Iron Bridge mine, in its January-March quarterly report on 29 April. The company sold 143mn wmt of ore, including 4.7mn wmt of Iron Bridge magnetite, in the nine months to 31 March. Fortescue increased its shipments across every product category on the year in January-March (see table) , because of the partial ramp-up of Iron Bridge and an ore car derailment in January-March 2024. These factors offset the impact of multiple cyclone-related port disruptions in Western Australia (WA) over January-February. Fortescue's Iron Bridge magnetite sales tripled on the year but remained flat on the quarter in January-March. The company is reviewing the 22mn t/yr mine's ramp-up schedule and will announce a plan to reach full capacity by late June. Fortescue originally planned to increase Iron Bridge's output to capacity by September, before it in February backed away from that date. The company improved ore processing circuits at the mine during the last quarter, replacing the lining of air classifiers, Fortescue told investors on 29 April. Fortescue's iron ore fines products accounted for 55pc of its total sales in January-March, down slightly from 56pc a year earlier. Iron ore fines tend to be less valuable than similarly graded iron ore lumps, as they require additional processing. Fortescue's iron ore cash costs decreased by 7pc from $18.93/wmt a year earlier to $17.53/wmt, on the back of mine performance improvements. The company left its cash cost guidance for the 2025 financial year unchanged at $18.50-19.75/wmt. Fortescue's cash costs hovered in the upper end of its guidance over the first half of the 2025 financial year, reaching $19.20/wmt. Many of Fortescue's WA competitors experienced sales declines in January-March, because of cyclone-related disruptions. WA iron ore shipments from global metals firm BHP and UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto declined by 7.8pc and 18pc on the year, respectively, during the quarter. Argus ' iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price has been falling since late-January. It was last assessed at $99.10/t on 28 April, down from $105.25/t on 31 January. By Avinash Govind Fortescue Shipments by Product mn wmt Jan-Mar '25 Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '24 Jul-Mar '25 Jul-Mar '24 y-o-y Change (%) YTD Change (%) Iron Bridge Concentrate 1.5 0.5 1.5 4.7 0.6 200.0 683.0 West Pilbara Fines 3.4 3.0 3.6 10.6 11.6 13.0 -8.6 Kings Fines 4.0 3.9 4.1 11.8 11.2 2.6 5.4 Fortescue Blend 17.0 17.0 18.0 53.0 58.0 3.0 -10.0 Fortescue Lump 1.8 1.6 1.9 5.8 6.1 13.0 -4.9 Super Special Fines 18.0 18.0 20.0 58.0 50.0 2.9 15.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - -100.0 Total 46.0 43.0 49.0 143.0 138.0 6.5 3.8 Fortescue Argus' iron ore cfr Qingdao prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

29/04/25

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s coking coal imports extend downtrend in March

28/04/25

Japan’s coking coal imports extend downtrend in March

Singapore, 28 April (Argus) — Japan's coking coal imports extended a downtrend in March, reflecting the prolonged downturn in the steel sector, which has weighed on raw material demand. The country imported 2.57mn t of coking coal in March, down by 18pc on the year but up by 5pc from February, according to data from the country's finance ministry. Shipments dropped by 10pc to 8.15mn t in January-March 2025 from a year earlier. Top supplier Australia shipped 19pc less volume from a year earlier at 1.78mn t, and volumes in January-March fell by 18pc from 2024 to 5.59mn t. Arrivals from Canada fell to 192,903t in March, down by over 60pc compared with a year and month earlier, but January-March volumes rose by 11pc on the year to 1.22mn t. Metallurgical coke imports rose by around 30pc on the year and month to 78,729t in March, with volumes in January-March 28pc higher on the year at 255,804t. Crude steel production from basic oxygen furnaces (BOF) rose by 3pc on the year to 5.3mn t. But output could fall in coming months. Japanese steel producer JFE will suspend operations at one of its three BOF in the West Japan Works from around mid-May on the back of lower steel demand in domestic and export markets, the firm announced on 2 April. This is expected to lower annual crude steel output by around 15pc. Meanwhile, the mill will proceed to invest in an electric arc furnace (EAF) facility in western Okayama, which could begin commercial operations in April-June 2028. Other steelmakers such as Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel have also been making the shift from BOF to EAF. The Argus premium low-volatile hard coking coal price fob Australia averaged $174.84/t in March, down by 7pc from February. By Xiuqi Huang Japan's coal imports Origin Mar 25 Mar 24 y-o-y ± % Feb 25 m-o-m ± % Jan-Mar 2025 Jan-Mar 2024 y-o-y ± % Coking coal ('000t) Australia 1,781 2,206 -19 1,522 +17 5,589 6,780 -18 Canada 193 493 -61 554 -65 1,221 1,103 +11 US 297 215 +38 252 +18 743 848 -12 Indonesia 298 230 +29 85 +249 495 329 +50 Colombia 0 0 n/a 25 -100 25 0 n/a Others 0 0 n/a 0 n/a 80 48 +67 Total 2,569 3,144 -18 2,438 +5 8,153 9,109 -10 Met coke (t) China 74,633 57,426 +30 56,445 +32 222,202 188,235 +18 Others 4,096 4,069 +1 3,713 +10 33,602 11,323 +197 Total 78,729 61,495 +28 60,158 +31 255,804 199,558 +28 Source: Japan Finance Ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Lynas cuts Jan-Mar rare earth oxide output

28/04/25

Australia’s Lynas cuts Jan-Mar rare earth oxide output

Sydney, 28 April (Argus) — Australian mineral producer Lynas Rare Earths reduced its rare earth oxide output by 46pc on the year in January-March, because of maintenance and improvement work across multiple plants. Lynas left its total oxide production target for the fiscal year ending 30 June unchanged at 10,500t in its January-March quarterly report on 28 April. The company's improvements should enable it to increase production over April-June, following two quarters of declining output. Lynas produced 1,911t of rare earth oxides, including 1,509t of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, in January-March. The company cut its NdPr oxide production by 12pc on the year over that period, prioritising NdPr oxide over other rare earth oxides ( see table) . NdPr oxide accounted for 79pc of the company's total oxide output in January-March, down from 49pc a year earlier. But Lynas' NdPr oxide share of production may drop in April-June. The company built dysprosium and terbium processing circuits in Malaysia last quarter, and expects to start refining the minerals in May and June, respectively. Lynas' expansion into dysprosium and terbium production comes as Chinese manufacturers — the largest exporters of dysprosium and terbium — weigh the impact of recent rare earth export controls, with some firms limiting offers . Lynas produces oxides in Malaysia using rare earths mined and initially processed in Western Australia (WA). The company spent the January-March quarter doing kiln maintenance work in Malaysia and improving its WA processing methods. Its Malaysian work finished during the quarter and its WA improvements are ongoing, the company said on 28 April. Lynas chemically treated rare earth carbonates from its WA plant before converting them to oxides in October-December, because of sulphate impurities, slowing production over the quarter. Its WA process changes are meant to prevent that from happening again. Lynas continued work on a Texas rare earth plant in January-March. The company is in talks with the US government over funding support for the project, the company said on 28 April. Recent US tariffs and water treatment issues could increase its Texas project costs, it added. The first Trump administration backed Lynas' US project in 2019, invoking the Defence Production Act to fund marketing, engineering, and design work. Argus ' praseodymium-neodymium oxide min 99pc fob China price has been quite volatile over the past three months. The price was last assessed at $56,000/t on 25 April, down from $62,250/t on 24 February and $57,150/t on 27 January. By Avinash Govind Lynas Oxide Production Jan-Mar '25 Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '24 Jul-Mar '25 Jul-Mar '24 y-o-y Change (%) YTD Change (%) Rare earth oxide (total) | t 1,911 3,545 2,617 7,250 8,720 -46 -17 NdPr oxide | t 1,509 1,724 1,292 4,478 4,151 -12 7.9 NdPr oxide share | % 79 49 49 62 48 62 30 Lynas Rare Earths Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Usiminas steel price outlook murky

24/04/25

Brazil's Usiminas steel price outlook murky

Sao Paulo, 24 April (Argus) — Brazilian steel producer Usiminas' outlook for prices was mixed as steel output rose in the latest quarter. Usiminas commercial vice-president Miguel Homes said that pressure from imports and the Brazilian real's recent appreciation to the US dollar may force the producer to adjust spot prices in the future. At the same time, the company expects prices to remain flat in the coming quarter, according to its quarterly earnings release. Usiminas confirmed a 3pc price increase for automotive manufacturer contracts in April, which could signal an opportunity for a price reduction in light of the real's appreciation. The real has appreciated by 12.5pc to the US dollar year-to-date, slashing feedstock costs for Usiminas but also pressuring its domestic price levels. Brazilian mills have been unable to raise prices because of strong import flows, which increased 30pc in the first quarter, reaching 1.7mn metric tonnes (t). Usiminas sales rose to 1mn t in the first quarter, up by 9pc from the same period a year earlier. The company expects its sales volumes to be stable in the coming months. It also boosted crude steel output to 773,000t in the first quarter, 10pc above a year prior. Rolled-steel production remained flat at 1mn t. The company exported over 90,000t of steel in the first quarter. Argentina's automotive and oil and gas pipeline industries accounted for 81pc of Usiminas'steel exports , Usiminas said. Iron ore production reached 2.1mn t in the first quarter, up by 12pc from a year earlier. The company sold 2.2mn t of iron ore, marking 13pc growth from a year before. Exports accounted for 75pc of first quarter sales and profits in the period soared by over ninefold to R337mn ($65mn). By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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